Today is the lone unsettled day out of the next 5. A trough of low pressure is moving through the region from west to east, a progressive system with its warm front having gone by already and a cold front to approach and cross the area by mid evening. While we won’t see any sun for fuel today, this is a fairly strong dynamic system for this time of year so that will help trigger the showers and a few heavier thunderstorms. There will be two main rounds of activity. The first is already in the WHW forecast areas western reaches as I write this, and will cross the area during this morning and midday, with a second round coming along late in the day / early evening. Between the two can be a few isolated showers or storms, but not much. While this won’t be a widespread severe weather outbreak, a few of the storms can be strong to locally severe. Also, while much of the region will not see this, these storms can also cause torrential rainfall, low visibility, and brief road flooding, so use caution if you plan to be traveling locally / regionally today. The low pressure area exits early Wednesday, but being a pretty dynamic system, its surface low will be rather impressive and it, combined with approaching high pressure from the west, will create a gusty breeze over the region both Wednesday and Thursday as we see dry weather and a cooling trend. High pressure builds over the region late in the week with continued fair weather – cool nights and pleasant days – Friday and Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely from southwest to northeast this morning to midday, a few storms possibly strong to severe. Downpours may lead to brief flooding in poor drainage locations as well. Isolated showers this afternoon then a better chance of showers and thunderstorms again in western areas by late in the day. Areas of fog. Humid – dew point 60s. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms west to east early, then breaking clouds and a clearing trend but areas of fog thereafter. Drying air later at night. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

High pressure should be in general control of the weather for the period, main center trending to the south and allowing temperatures to warm to above normal. May need to watch for showers from an approaching front by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Depending on timing, showers may be around with a passing frontal system to start the period, but overall pattern looks dry with a general cooling trend.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-13-2022

The forecast for the next 5 days is a pretty straightforward one for our area. The wildfire smoke is gone. The coastal waters are settling down. The weather will be most active early in the week as a warm front moves through early today with a possible shower to start the day, then warm and humid weather. A cold front follows on Tuesday, trailing from low pressure passing to our north. This front brings us our only shot of fairly widespread showers, which may also bring a few downpours, but generally a non-beneficial rainfall. We’ll have to watch for some gusty winds with these as well, but the threat of severe weather, albeit slight, is west of our region. After this, high pressure approaches Wednesday behind that front but a little cold pool above us will help create passing diurnal clouds for a sun/cloud mix, then a sunnier sky can be expected Thursday and Friday as the high moves closer bringing us a change to below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start including the chance of a passing rain shower. Partly sunny mid morning on. Humid – dew point 65+. Highs 77-84. Wind S under 10 MPH early shifting to SW and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and showers likely early. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying air. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

September 17-18 weekend looks mostly dry, warmest Saturday dominated by high pressure to the south, cooling Sunday as a front goes by and high pressure anew comes from the north (eastern Canada). Watching for higher humidity, milder air, and a shower chance early the following week with a trough approaching and arriving from the west. Fair weather returns by the end of the period as a progressive pattern kicks the trough out of here.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Autumn arrives with the equinox on the evening of September 22. The last hours of summer may be warm before another frontal system delivers cooler air to the region for the middle and end portion of this period, but otherwise a generally dry pattern with high pressure in control for much of the time. Despite recent events, not seeing any lasting drought relief and we should remain in drought for some time to come.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-12-2022

The smoke shield has been replaced by a high cloud shield which will limit the sun today, and thicken up to even blot it out for a time as a warm front approaches but high pressure struggles to maintain control. So the rain with the front will be drying up as it approaches and moves in, but some of it may still reach the ground so the chance of a few showers has to be in the forecast. As we get to Monday, high pressure offshore delivers more humidity. A trough approaching from the west increases the shower chance Monday night, and as this system moves across the region with a frontal boundary during Tuesday, that will be the only day with a good shot at widespread showers and some additional drought relief. After the system moves by, it’s right back to a stretch of dry weather for the middle of the coming week.

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of high clouds into midday. Cloudier for portions of the afternoon including the chance of brief showers / light rain in spots. Highs 77-84, coolest on the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60+ early. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

After a brief warm-up with dry weather, a frontal boundary dropping southward introduces Canadian high pressure and cooler air during the course of the September 17-18 weekend. Potential for some unsettled weather arriving from the west at the end of the period with a trough of low pressure, but not convinced this system will have much push with it.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

The overall pattern looks dry with variable temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal, as high pressure will be in control much of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-11-2022

High pressure continues to control the weather through the weekend with fair, warmer weather. While we see wildfire smoke from the West in our sky again today, some of this will depart as high clouds replace the smoke on Sunday, so while we’ll have sun both days, it will be filtered. Coastal areas will experience rough surf and large swells today into Sunday due to Hurricane Earl over the open waters of the western Atlantic. Use caution if beaching or boating. High pressure will be off to the south and east of our region and a trough approaching from the west will not be close enough to bring wet weather into the area, so expecting a fair and warm day for the start of the new week. That trough will bring its shower activity through on Tuesday – the unsettled day, before it moves off to the east and drier weather returns by Wednesday.

TODAY: Filtered sun – high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

High pressure dominates with fair weather, cooler at first, then a warming trend. A frontal system may bring a shower chance by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close and autumn arrives (equinox evening of September 22).

C-19 Chat Post – 9-10-2022

High pressure drifts over our area today into Saturday then sinks to the south during the remainder of the weekend, providing fair weather and a warming trend. We won’t have a deep blue sky in this set-up this time, as high altitude smoke from western US wildfires will be over our area. However, this can make for interesting coloring especially near sunrises and sunset times, and will also impact the moon’s look (full Harvest Moon tonight). In addition, Hurricane Earl, having passed east of Bermuda, will be churning north to northeast across the open Atlantic, but will stir up rough surf and large swells which will impact our coastline through the weekend. Early next week, a trough and frontal system arrive from the west with unsettled weather later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun, filtered at times by high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear, but full moon filtered by high altitude smoke. Patchy ground fog forming over lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun – high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the afternoon, favoring western areas. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Departing low pressure trough may still cause a passing shower September 14, otherwise high pressure re-takes control of the weather with fair weather and near to eventually above normal temperatures again.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close and autumn arrives (equinox evening of September 22).

C-19 Chat Post – 9-9-2022

High pressure will bring us a stretch of fair weather through the weekend, starting out seasonable then warming to a little above normal as the center of the high gradually sinks to the south from just north of to just south of our area during this time. Hurricane Earl, passing far off the East Coast (making a much closer pass east of Bermuda early Friday) will become a major hurricane and send large ocean swells and rough surf to our coastline later this week and especially during the upcoming weekend, which should be noted by anybody with plans for late season beach visits or boating activities. By Monday, a frontal boundary and low pressure trough approaching from the west increases the humidity and shower chances.

TODAY: Areas of clouds this morning, otherwise sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of clouds arrive. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Partial sun and areas of ground fog early, then becoming sunny. Highs 74-81, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 54-61. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the afternoon, favoring western areas. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

The potential for some unsettled weather as a trough of low pressure and frontal system cross the region through early September 15 with temperatures near to above normal during this time. Generally fair and seasonably mild weather later in the period as high pressure returns to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-8-2022

Today completes the transition from wet weather back to dry weather, but a little time is needed for the low level moisture with lingering drizzle and light showers in parts of the South Coast region. As high pressure builds slowly into the region but its center stays to the north we’ll have a northeasterly air flow through Friday, and while still having to contend with some clouds at times into Thursday, the trend will be back to sun each day. The high pressure area will sink to the south over and eventually just to the south of the region during the weekend which will feature dry weather and a warming trend. In summary, after our healthy rainfall event, it’s back to a stretch of dry weather. As we head through late week and the weekend, we’ll experience larger swells and rough surf along the coast due to offshore tropical activity – strengthening Hurricane Earl – moving north to northeast, passing just east of Bermuda early Friday and starting to curve northeastward over open water heading into the weekend.

TODAY: Abundant clouds and areas of drizzle and light showers South Coast to start then more sun there while there is a sun / cloud mix elsewhere. Areas of fog early morning. Highs 66-73. Dew point falling into and through 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH, except 15 MPH at the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 74-81, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog re-forming overnight. Lows 54-61. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

The potential for some unsettled weather as a trough of low pressure and frontal system cross the Northeast from later September 12 through early September 15 with temperatures near to above normal during this time. Generally fair and seasonably mild weather later in the period as high pressure returns to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The final 5 full days of summer should feature a fairly dry pattern with temperatures near to above normal as high pressure controls most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-7-2022

Classic “warm rain” event. (We’ll go into that more later.) I didn’t want to buy it. Drought. But here is my time being wrong to highly underestimate the event’s potential, now becoming reality. And despite areas of flooding, which have mostly impacted roads in southern areas, this is generally a beneficial event for the region, greatly relieving drought conditions. Since a good portion of the rain will have occurred before the 8 a.m. Tuesday cut-off for the US Drought Monitor, we won’t have to wait long to see the assessment of positive impact. So now, how long do we have left in this event? A little longer. The entire system is slow to exit, and will still have the ability to deliver us rainfall for at least several more hours today, and have its clouds hang on for a while after that, into Wednesday. Finally, high pressure does build in following this with fair weather for the remainder of mid week all the way to the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Widespread showers, some heavy at times. Areas of road flooding, especially south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers diminish from north to south. Lows 55-62. Dew point lowering to under 60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers South Coast morning. Areas of fog morning. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH, except 15 MPH at the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

High pressure hangs on with dry weather to finish the weekend. Early next week a frontal boundary and trough approach from the west with a warm-up and eventual shower chance, then seasonable and dry weather after that passes the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is in control much of the time, probably just one frontal boundary to pass through with a brief chance of showers.