C-19 Chat Post – 9-6-2022

Giving up a “holiday” to foul weather is a relatively small sacrifice for what will end up being a widespread beneficial rain event across our region. Yes, I was skeptical. “All systems fail in a drought” is a phrase a well known Boston meteorologist used a lot, and often ends up correct, but we have joked about saying that until you’re wrong, because it’s easier to be wrong once than a bunch of times. Yes, some areas did get great benefit from a recent one-two punch, but this event will give more benefit to a wider area. And it’s a fairly benign looking set-up too. There’s no tropical system. There’s no “big storm”. It’s just a front that came through, slowed down, has a good atmosphere for lift, and a little wave of low pressure to come along to enhance it. We won’t escape some issues, because some of the pockets of heavier rain are indeed going to lead to some areas of flooding. We have parched ground. It’s hard to get rain to soak into that at first, and in areas that see downpours, flooding issues will exist at times today and tonight, maybe even into Tuesday as the system drags itself out a bit. But overall, this is going to be beneficial and finally more than just a scratch on the surface of the drought. So we’ll take it. Does it mean “drought over”? Not yet. We have to see what comes beyond this. We can easily slip back if we stay too dry, but for now, we can rejoice in the benefit we are about to get. This system finally does pull away by late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then the forecast gets more simple – high pressure builds in with fair weather for later this week.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers trending southward with embedded downpours. Areas of flooding likely. Highs 65-70 southern NH / northern MA, 70-75 southern MA / CT / RI. Dew point 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers, some downpours. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely but with a diminishing north to south during the day. Areas of fog, especially morning. Highs 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Early showers linger southern MA / CT / RI, otherwise breaking clouds. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds linger South Coast otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

High pressure brings dry weather and above normal temperatures for the September 10-11 weekend. Watching for a frontal boundary to bring a shower threat early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is in control much of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-5-2022

Continuing to fine-tune the details of the unsettled portion of our Labor Day Weekend, and after a beautiful Saturday, we’ll have another generally beautiful day today, just warmer and a little more humid than yesterday. Exception: by late in the day some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can pop up to the west of the I-95 belt, and much of this will wait until near or even after sunset to start showing up, as it is more dynamically driven than diurnally driven as a weak cold front moves through from north to south. Even so, the diurnal heating having played some role, being absent in the later evening will allow the initial activity to diminish. It will be during Monday morning that a wave will be forming and moving our way along the slow-moving front, largely having passed by the region at that point, so we’ll end up with a cooler, but still humid day on Monday with increasing coverage of showers and embedded heavier rain. My biggest tweak on this update is to move the timing of the most numerous showers up from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday to a midday to mid evening Monday, sealing the deal that Monday is far less favorable for any outdoor activities than the 2 days that preceded it. However, many standard long weekends largely leave Monday as a day to have a nice breakfast then drive home from wherever the destination was. So the rainfall will have more impact on the “holiday commute home” than anything else. Any rain we do get is obviously still much-needed with our ongoing and continuing drought. Sadly, many models and some media maps still paint pictures of more widespread 1-inch-or-greater rainfall amounts than I think we will ultimately see across the region, but we will see, and we’ll take whatever we can get. Improvement is now expected on Tuesday as the wave of low pressure exits early and pulls the frontal boundary further south. High pressure then builds in with great weather for the middle of the coming week – mild and dry Wednesday with a breeze with the high center still to the northwest, less wind and a bit warmer Thursday as the high shifts over the region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day isolated showers and thunderstorms possible west of I-95. Highs 81-88, a little cooler along the South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms in the evening, favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Variably cloudy with scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog forming late night. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers becoming numerous by midday on with embedded heavier downpours. Areas of fog, especially early in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely evening, diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising into 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure shifts to the south with fair weather and temperatures warming to above normal late week into if not through the weekend. Current expecting timing brings the next trough and frontal boundary in early the following week with a chance of showers at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of the weather in our region. Probably one shot of briefly unsettled weather with a frontal boundary but not really possible to time it this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-4-2022

There’s been a lot of media chatter about a good portion of Labor Day Weekend’s weather going bad, but this is not really going to be the case. Two out of the 3 days are going to be wonderful late summer days, and the final one (Labor Day itself) will become somewhat unsettled. This will take place as high pressure over us today drifts to the south Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A weak warm front moves across the region today / tonight but other than some high clouds filtering the sun at times today, the only other evidence of this front will be a wind shift to the southwest and increase in humidity, happening for most of us tonight, so not noticeable until Sunday, which will be a more summer-feeling day. Isolated thunderstorms that were in the forecast earlier are not really going to have much of a chance to pop up until later in the day and then most likely over interior higher elevations, as the air will be too stable to get them in most areas. So it will be a really nice summer day for the most part. The cold front finally moves into and across the region Sunday night and early Monday when the shower chance will increase. As the front initially goes by it may dry out just enough so that we see only limited shower chances during a good portion of Monday, but finally later in the day or especially at night we should see a more widespread batch of showers / rain arriving as moisture from the southwest gets involved and a wave of low pressure forms on the frontal boundary. The wildcard is how quickly this wet weather exits the region on Tuesday. Guidance is spread between an all-day rainfall and an early-day rainfall followed by drying conditions. I’m leaning toward the latter – shorter-duration rain and quicker arrival of dry. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday with dry weather expected.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and pop-up clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms in the evening, favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Variably cloudy with scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog forming late night. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early morning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Clearing afternoon. Areas of fog early. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ morning, 50s afternoon. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure shifts to the south with fair weather and a warm-up mid to later portion of next week. No longer thinking frontal boundary is in the area on September 9 but waits until later in the period to arrive with some great late summer weather in the forecast up until an end-of-period shower chance. Still have to monitor for larger swells and surf along the coast due to offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-3-2022

We have a significant temperature spread at sunrise on this second day of September. A clear sky and light wind set up radiational cooling overnight, with many areas seeing low temperature in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Exceptions: Boston in the upper 50s due to a combo of urban effect and water’s influence, and Cape Cod around 60 due to the ocean water’s modifying effects. This set-up will repeat tonight which will be the coolest night in a while. But between these 2 cool nights come a very pleasant September day today, under a ridge of high pressure with lots of sun, dry air, light wind. After Saturday’s chilly start, the temperature rebound will be significant as high pressure sinks a little bit to the south a return flow of warmer air arrives. But humidity stays low, making for a great late summer day to start the holiday weekend. High pressure sinks further south and a stronger southwesterly air flow will be established on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This set-up brings a stronger breeze but also very warm air and higher humidity. There may be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching front late in the day, but these look limited and mostly over interior southern NH to central MA. The cold front will then move across the region during the first half of Monday, based on current timing. This is when we have our greatest chance of showers, in my meteorological opinion. Some of our guidance has suggested a wetter scenario with more widespread rainfall from Monday into Tuesday, but I feel this may be over-done and am going with a more progressive system and a drying trend later Monday onward, with high pressure from eastern Canada being strong enough to accomplish this.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54, warmer in some urban and immediate coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, favoring interior southern NH and central MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

High pressure builds to the south with dry weather and a warm-up September 7-8. Next frontal boundary brings a shower chance September 9 before another area of high pressure moves in for the September 10-11 weekend with more fair weather. Offshore tropical activity may increase surf and ocean swells later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-2-2022

We are still under the influence of a low pressure circulation to our northeast as we start the month of September, and it will work with a high pressure area building in from the west to send a very dry air mass into the region today on a gusty breeze – a very nice day to open up the first month of meteorological autumn. High pressure settles over the region on Friday with tranquil weather, a cool morning and a warm afternoon, and then a quick temperature drop off at night as we have a clear sky and light wind – the perfect set-up for radiational cooling. After a chilly very early morning on Saturday, we rebound nicely as the high pressure area in control of our weather to start Labor Day Weekend settles to the south. This high will send even warmer and eventually more humid air into the region by Sunday, but at that time another high building out of eastern Canada means there will be a dividing line between the two air masses in the form of a cold front, as the Canadian high builds southward against the retreating high to the south. The frontal boundary may help initiate a few showers and even a thunderstorm in parts of the region on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t expect this activity to be widespread or persist for very long. The front should push far enough south and high pressure from Canada build in enough so that we end up rain-free for the Labor Day holiday itself on Monday, but we may have to deal with a fair amount of cloudiness at times to finish off the long weekend.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point falling to upper 40s. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

High pressure builds over the region then to the south with dry weather and a warming trend September 6-8. A frontal boundary should bring the chance of a few showers September 9 before a Canadian air mass brings dry and cooler weather to end the period. Rough surf may be evident along the coastline by the end of the period due to Atlantic tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-1-2022

On this final day of August 2022 we will be transitioning from a humid air mass that tacked on another 90+ day to Boston’s total yesterday and into a drier one, but it will take a number of hours before we feel the drier air. The cold front that leads the new air mass in is just going through the region now, having produced a pretty solid band of light to moderate showers with embedded downpours in the pre-dawn to dawn time frame. As of 7:00 a.m. (the time I began writing this blog update), the shower band is just getting set to exit the NH Seacoast and MA East Coast but is just about to cross Outer Cape Cod before exiting there by 9:00 a.m. Areas to the west saw their showers earlier, and are already rain-free with clearing starting to move in. This drying / clearing trend will push eastward, and while we have a warm day (not as hot as yesterday) the dew point will be going down gradually from west to east as the drier air mass moves into our region. Another secondary front / trough will be passing by later Thursday with a bit of a reinforcement of dry and slightly cooler air to move in on Friday. So as we start September, the trend is drier/cooler as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure approaches via the Great Lakes area. This high will settle across our region Saturday providing a splendid start to the Labor Day weekend. Saturday could be one of those days with a very large diurnal temperature swing. After we get our cool air delivery on Friday, the high center comes right over our region Friday night and early Saturday morning, the clear sky and calm wind will allow for radiational cooling and with a low dew point, the temperature can fall well down into the 50s with maybe even some upper 40s in the deeper interior valleys. During the day on Saturday, the high center will slip off to the south and east and allow a more southerly air flow to take hold, warming us up nicely, especially inland, away from the ocean’s influence, where areas that were near 50 at sunrise can be around 80 by early afternoon. But despite the warm up the humidity will remain low on Saturday and it will be great for outdoor activities. A bit of a stronger southwesterly air flow will take hold on Sunday, pushing higher humidity into the region, with high pressure now to the south, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front looks like it may be somewhat moisture starved and not have a lot of support, but I cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas later Sunday. Still have to tweak the more precise timing of this threat…

TODAY: Showers exit coastal areas before 8:00 a.m. except outer Cape Cod by 9:00 a.m. with clouds giving way to sun and passing clouds west to east. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s early in the day, gradually but steadily falling to upper 50s to middle 60s by late in the day. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Labor Day September 5 should feature cooler weather and a sun/cloud mix with high pressure to the north sending a northeasterly air flow into the region. High pressure sinks to the south with fair weather and a warming trend September 6-8 before the next frontal boundary arrives with a shower threat and higher humidity at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

As we reach the middle of September we’ll likely be governed by high pressure with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures and we’ll continue to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at least increase the surf along the coastline.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-31-2022

Down to the last couple days of August, and we’ve had our share of heat this month. We’ll get one more hot day today ahead of an approaching cold front, with high pressure offshore. Humidity will be up as well. The timing of the cold front though is late, and that means that thunderstorms that form well west and northwest of our region won’t get here before day’s end, and we’ll end up with remnant activity in the late night / overnight hours, to around dawn on Wednesday as the front pushes through from west to east. There still can be a few thunderstorms then, but most areas will see showers, or even nothing at all other than just some cloudiness moving through. Wednesday, it will still be a warm day (a bit less hot than today) but the humidity will noticeably drop behind the front. We’ll still have a bit of a trough moving through the Northeast both Wednesday and Thursday, and another frontal boundary still has to come through at some point Thursday. This boundary will have very little moisture to work with so I’m not expecting showers with it, just some clouds, and a transition to a cooler air mass through Friday. High pressure builds in with a great start to the holiday weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly I-95 westward late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm near eastern coastal areas around dawn, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

High pressure sinks to the south with fair and warm weather for September 4, then a cold front travels through, likely dry, and Canadian high pressure continues with fair weather but with cooler air to finish off the Labor Day weekend on September 5. This high should then sink to the south with fair weather and a warm-up later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

We’ll watch for a frontal boundary crossing with a possible shower around September 9 and possibly some offshore tropical activity later in the period, otherwise high pressure should dominate with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-30-2022