DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)
The final 5 days of the 3rd month of 2024 are covered in this portion of today’s blog forecast. Our unsettled stretch of weather will continue into Friday, and we may need to include additional unsettled weather previously not in the forecast for part of the weekend. Read on to see why. After yesterday’s chilly/raw feel with lots of drizzle around, that theme continued overnight into early this morning with areas of fog also around. The marine layer responsible will be somewhat stubborn to dislodge today, but eventually will give way to a milder and slightly drier southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. This should limit or eliminate drizzle patches, allow the overcast to lift and possibly even develops some breaks, and in response the temperature to climb 10 or more degrees from yesterday’s chilly readings in many areas. This will be limited of course along the South Coast where a southerly air flow is a direct ocean breeze. The cold front ambles its way across our region from west to east tonight. While doing so it will induce scattered rain showers which will then increase in coverage overnight. This will be in response to a wave of low pressure forming and sending more moisture northward along the slowing frontal boundary, which will then sit offshore while low pressure moves up along it, giving us a steady period of rain Thursday and Thursday night. This rain, which is expected to amount to 1 to 3 inches total, will aggravate already existing flooding on some rivers and streams, and low lying swampy areas. The low pressure wave will intensify as it starts to pull away early Friday. The expecting timing is still that the first half of Friday will carry the highest chance of steady precipitation, mostly rain, but may mix with and turn to snow before ending especially in higher elevations north and west of Boston, and possibly closer to the coastal plain if precipitation is heavy enough toward the end of the event. The second half of Friday should feature a drying trend as the wind picks up behind the departing storm system. This dry but windy regime will then be with us through Saturday, with the atmospheric set-up being one that allows wind gusts up to or even over 40 MPH, especially in higher elevation locations. One uncertainty for the upcoming weekend: Watching a small low pressure disturbance that has been fairly consistently forecast by reliable medium range guidance. My thoughts have been that this system would pass harmlessly south of us on Sunday (which is Easter for those who celebrate). But some guidance insists that this system will clip our region early Sunday before moving on, and I can’t ignore this completely, so I’m cautiously adding the chance of a little precipitation to the early part of Sunday’s outlook to cover this possibility. These small systems can be hard to forecast in the northwest flow that we’ll have. I do expect, based on that timing, that the balance of Sunday would turn out dry, and less windy than Saturday. Additionally, the colder air deliver behind the late week storm system will be modest at best, so the weekend high temps will be OK for late March.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle during this morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon. Scattered rain showers enter southwestern NH and central MA late in the day. Highs 45-52 Cape Cod / South Coast region and immediate eastern coast, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind N to E under 10 MPH, shifting SE to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Steadier rain arrives overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind variable shifting to N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain and areas of fog. Highs 45-52, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and northwestern MA prior to dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain favoring eastern areas, may be mixed with or even turn to wet snow in some areas before ending. Breaking clouds from west to east later. Highs 43-50. Wind N-NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, possibly to 40 MPH or even higher favoring the higher elevation locations.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH becoming W to variable up to 10 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy including the chance of light snow/mix/rain early. Partly sunny midday on. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W-NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)
Unsettled weather windows April 2-3 and April 5 with potential rain/mix/snow depending on track of storm systems moving over or just south of the region while cold high pressure resides in eastern Canada.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)
Pattern remains cool but may shift to be somewhat drier, but still have to watch upper level low pressure that may keep the region unsettled. Will continue to monitor trends in regards to sky conditions for The April 8 solar eclipse, in which the path of totally crosses northern New England.