Thursday March 21 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

A blustery, winter-feeling early-spring day is on our weather menu today as a small but strong low pressure area exits Maine into Atlantic Canada and high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. We are now at the point in the year where these dry and windy days present elevated brush fire danger. High pressure will slide eastward into Friday and diminish the wind, and the fire danger, though the chill will be hanging around. Clouds advance later Friday ahead of our next upcoming storm system – low pressure that will cut across the Northeast / New England on Saturday. This system will produce a solid swath of precipitation that should fall as mostly rain, but will likely start as snow Friday night especially from the Boston area west and north and may end as mix/snow in similar areas on Saturday evening. While drier weather is expected for Sunday, clouds may remain dominant as another low pressure wave passes by just to our southeast. Early next week will feature dry weather and below normal temperatures between low pressure in Atlantic Canada and high pressure to our west.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s / 20s.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing somewhat overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives by late evening – snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches I-95 west / I-90 north, before turning to rain. Lows 28-35 evening, may rise overnight. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, stronger at the coast.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain ends early, but may end as mix/snow north and west of Boston. Lows 32-39. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

Dry with below normal temperatures to start the period then additional unsettled weather and variable temperatures middle of next week. Drying trend returns late week based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Additional unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures in an active early spring weather pattern.

49 thoughts on “Thursday March 21 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Coldest feeling walk into the building all cold season, on the 2nd full day of spring.

    Of course 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Good morning and thank you TK

    28 here this morning.

    Ahhh SPRING in New England. Gotta love it!!!

  12. 00z models predicted precip for Friday night/Saturday event, at this time …..

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  13. Thanks, TK!

    I just went to my car in the staff parking lot and the winds are “blusterier” than they were 3 1/2 hours ago!

    Spring sports started at MHS on Monday. So glad I am not coaching Little League or youth soccer anymore!!! Some of those early season Little League practices and games were brutal!!!

    Mark, are you still a softball dad? Do you coach?

    1. Some of my students are telling me they have outdoor baseball games tonight, as part of an early season tournament.

  16. I think WxWatcher, in a post the last day or 2, mentioned that the west coast was about to get stormy again after having had a recent break.

    Indeed, the 12z GFS shows this and with the jet stream set-up, those disturbances will head east and give us a storm opportunity every 48-72 hrs.

    No 5-7 day breaks without precip starting tomorrow night for a while going forward.

  17. Thanks TK – rather than feeling like the first week of spring it feels like the 13th week of winter

    1. Wait til were on week 23 of winter on May 31st. 🙂

      Then straight to 90+ degree heat or 70+ dewpoints with no middle ground to acclimate sometime in mid June.

      1. FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

        I think he does. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3. We are certainly not going to hit 40 in Swampscott. Might top out at 38.

      Winds are howling. My morning walk along the shore was frigid!

  19. A piece of the storm that affects us Fri Nt/Sat gets left behind in the western Atlantic and at the same time, high pressure builds in eastern Canada early next week.

    While the precip may well be suppressed well south and east of New England, the wind field out in the ocean will not. It will be up to our latitude, especially offshore.

    Full moon Monday, moderate tides. May have some coastal flooding/erosion concerns for a few cycles next week.

  22. Thank you,,TK. Late to the party even for me.

    I did try to measure wind but My tripod blew over. Now to figure how to weight it down.

    Had just follow up to left eye cataract surgery. Sight in left eye that I had trouble seeing with even with glasses is now 20/20 minus 2.

  23. Best I can tell, Logan topped out at 39, however, it is possible they touched 40 briefly between observations?

    we topped out at 39 here in JP

    1. They’re having some type of comm error and some obs are “missing”. Might have touched 40, but if they did, it was brief.

      1. Absolutely.
        Chilly day for sure.
        If this weekend storm were to track more to the SE, we would have been in for it. For this Winter the same thing would have happened in January or February. SO happy it won’t happen this time either. 🙂

        1. The lack of polar jet involvement and the MJO have been persistent enemies of SNE snowfall.

  24. I have 7 out of 8 games correct in my pool for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament so far today.

  25. Thanks TK.

    Impressive wintery week for NNE with lots of snow and cold as we officially begin Spring. Both Smugglers Notch and Jay Peak reporting 38” of new snow in the last 7 days and Sugarloaf ME has reported 30” over the same period. These areas have had accumulating snow pretty much every day this week. After a break tomorrow, the weekend nor’easter should deliver another 12-18” to these same areas. Should set up a terrific stretch of spring skiing well into April this year.

    Vicki – glad to hear your surgery went well.

    Captain – to answer your question from earlier, I do not coach but am still very much a softball dad. My daughter just made the high school varsity team and will be starting in left. Lots of after school games upcoming in the next 8 weeks. And when that ends, Bombers season begins! ( translation – it never ends…:) )

    1. Thank you, Mark. And left field. Well, imo there is no better position. Maybe you’ll have a game out this way again

      I missed or forgot with the sedative I was given….you are home from your amazing adventure?

      1. Yes we got home late Sunday night. I will have to post a few more pictures. The scenery out there, especially the views of the lake, was incredible.

  26. thanks TK that wind was biting. My dad is here and was like this is the coldest he’s felt all winter. He’s from Chapel Hill, NC

    Heading to Augusta ME today and they are right on the edge of 12 inches or 3 inches and pouring rain and then another few. . Globals have way more snow than short range. NAM and HDPS vs global. Though I did notice the RDPS 6z looks colder so who knows. Blizzard warning was dropped for a WSW.

  27. Captain, I coach both soccer and Little League and let me tell you that spring is much worse than fall. We play soccer at Millennium Park and it’s probably windiest place in Boston. It can be 60 near the VA on the West Roxbury parkway and you go to the top of millennium and it’s 40 with 20+ mph winds. It’s insane the difference.

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