Monday March 25 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

Offshore low pressure continues to throw its cloud shield over our region, thickest to the east, thinner to the west, and this will be the case much of today, though with some variation. Once again sun will be most limited to start the day and more able to shine through that cloud deck with time as the orb makes its transit across the sky. The air flow between that low pressure out there and high pressure to our northwest and north will tilt more northeasterly today than it was yesterday, keeping it chilly, especially along the coast where it will only make the lower 40s while inland has a better shot at upper 40s. But before we get to the high temps today, it’s colder away from the coast to start out the day (20s many areas as opposed to 30s coast). Unsettled weather is going to be with us for much of the remainder of this week. The offshore low slides back to the west somewhat, throwing some of its moisture toward and eventually into southeastern New England later Tuesday. While I expect most of this to occur in the I-95 belt eastward, Tuesday night’s temperatures to the west can be near or just below freezing allowing any light rain there to create some surface icing – so be aware of that potential. A cold front associated with an eastward moving trough initially slows down in response to the low to our east, but will then move into and across the region during Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will send a push of milder air into our region, but also additional moisture in the form of rain showers. As the front ambles offshore it will pause as a stronger low pressure wave develops and moves up along it, bringing us our best chance at widespread, somewhat heavier rainfall on Thursday. This system will exit during Friday, but the continuing question to answer is just how quickly this will happen. Medium range guidance continues to have different depictions of this scenario, some showing a quick eastward exit, some showing a much slower exit with wet weather into much of Friday, and some even showing snow getting involved in the late stages of the system as colder air is pulled into it. The scenario I am leaning toward is the same as yesterday, a wet start then drying trend Friday, but this is still not a high confidence forecast and may not be for a couple more days.

TODAY: Thickest clouds east with covered to dim sunshine first half of day. Thinner clouds west with filtered to potentially brighter sun second half of day. Highs 40-47, coldest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TONIGHT: Clouds advance westward. Lows 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon, favoring eastern areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly I-95 eastward, but any spotty precipitation that makes the I-495 belt may fall as freezing rain. Lows 31-38. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 Cape Cod / South Coast, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Steadier rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Highs 45-52, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas / Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, especially eastern areas. Lows 38-45. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain favoring eastern areas. Clearing trend follows. Highs 42-49. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Dry, breezy, chilly weather expected for the March 30-31 weekend with a northwest to west air flow. The first few days of April present an opportunity for unsettled weather with rain/mix/snow chances as low pressure tracks to our south with cold high pressure in eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Similar pattern into the end of the first week of April with additional opportunities for unsettled weather. May be push of high pressure with fair weather to end the period and we’ll be keeping a close eye on April 8 for solar eclipse weather viewing (more to come about this soon).

39 thoughts on “Monday March 25 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)”

    1. The video SAK included in his blog update is a favorite song of mine from way back!

      Funny thing about the video, the actual lead singer of Stealers Wheel, Gerry Rafferty (“Baker Street” writer / singer), refused to appear in the video, so band member Joe Egan, filled in as the lip-synch “singer” for the video shoot. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK. Just curious how much rain you are looking for over the course of the week. Realize it is early but wondered if you could ballpark it.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    To give you an idea of just how large London is: My flight to Heathrow will take less than 6 hours, [I expect there will be a strong jet stream that will provide a nice tail wind on my way there], and from the time of landing to arriving at my daughter’s apartment will take me at least 3 hours. Part of this is going through customs, of course. But most of it is a lot of walking and a lot of time spent on the fast-moving Tube. One of the stations on my way to Lisa’s is called Boston Manor, so in my jet-lagged state I’ll think I’m back home.

    I already packed my most essential item, a sturdy umbrella. It will not rain continuously. In fact, it rarely does that in London on any given day. They hardly ever get the copious amount of precipitation that we can in a single storm, like the other day. But periodic light rain showers will be the norm.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK

    Down to 32 here this morning after making it only to 41 yesterday.

    1. Sounds like a lovely spring day in SNE.

      And one day in late May we’ll wake up and it’ll be 90F.

  7. Joshua just curious. Does England experience droughts like we sometimes do or is that extremely rare? Can they get consecutive days of sunshine like at least a full week?

  11. Thanks TK. Looks like Baseball Opening Days will be impacted with foul weather this week. To be expected when the leagues starts in late March!

    2. Notice all pro sports seasons are getting longer and longer?

      NO NEED. They’re already all too long.

      1. CERTAINLY NO NEED For baseball to start in MARCH!!!!
        that is pure LUNACY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. Well now ……

    12z GFS and GDPS look closer to the coast on this late week storm system.

    Yes, some potential border line temps for snow, but I’m more interested/concerned about how much precip these new scenarios could drop after the amts we just received.

  13. Whatever happened to the benign 1/2″ rainstorm. Seems like “every” time it rains now, it’s freaking 1-4″. Going on two years of that now

    1. You can thank Hunga Tonga, in part, for putting an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the normally very dry stratosphere. As soon as that moisture reached a certain point of distribution, the big events instantly increased, as did the overall worldwide temp.

      It can be notably distinguished from longer term climate changes ongoing. This is why I say repeatedly that you can’t have that big a change that quickly and not have some impact. The years ahead, I believe, will confirm much of what I have been saying. This is science talking, not bias, not politics, nothing but science. 🙂 And as parts of the world have been prone to insane rain totals, other parts of it have been prone to insane dryness. And again, I’ve said before and reiterate here, the HTE is not in my opinion the ONLY factor. It’s one of several, but very possibly / probably a big one. Longer term climate change we’ve been observing is another, along with the combination of large scale multiple indices, short, medium, and long term.

      And other effects have been noted that may (or may not) be tied to the HTE (Hunga Tonga Effect). Two examples of that are the El Nino that produce a busy Atlantic and quiet Pacific tropical cyclone season – when it’s usually the opposite, and El Nino that typically produces heat/drought in Australia did NOT produce it this time.

      We’ll be learning about this effect for years, decades to come. An incredible opportunity to learn about our atmosphere and our world unfolding right in front of us, and we best take full advantage of it. 🙂

  14. interesting because I literally watch my rain gauge tack on head shaking amounts now with regularity. I though last year was crazy. We’re headed right toward it again.

  15. Thanks for the best wishes for my trip.

    Here’s the Met Office forecast for Wednesday through Friday: “Strong winds, particularly on the south coast, and heavy blustery showers throughout this period. Occasional brighter spells, less so on Thursday. Temperatures below average, and feeling chilly in the wind.”

    I arrive on Thursday.

    It will be an interesting trip. I’ll be seeing a friend I haven’t seen in >20 years. He and his wife and children live in Oxford, a city I lived in in 1984-85. That’s where I met Alfred who lives near a street which sounds quintessentially British: Squichley Lane.

    Philip, to answer your question on droughts in England, they’re very uncommon. They do have dry spells that can last a few weeks. But that’s usually not long enough to produce droughts. Also, it’s rarely hot there. It does happen from time to time, including last June which was very dry, sunny and warm, but it was followed by a wet July and August.

    On any given day the weather is generally more changeable than here. I’d say that on most days, especially in spring through fall (winter is more gray and dismal) you can have a brief sunny spell followed by showers followed by another brief sunny spell and then another pop-up shower. Steady constant rain for hours and hours is unusual. Snow in Southern England is fairly rare and hardly ever amounts to much even when it snows.

  16. As everyone at WHW knows, I absolutely dread flying. I kind of assume the worst will happen (it’s an affliction, I know) and feel lucky when I land that I’m still alive. The fear has gotten worse with age, which does limit my recreational air travel. Though, it doesn’t absolutely prevent me from flying, in part because I have to go by air sometimes. So to calm myself I watch videos of planes landing under difficult circumstances. https://twitter.com/webflite/status/1772186746513436702

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