DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

The overall pattern doesn’t change as it remains active, but the direct impacts on our region will bring a shift from wet and cool weather to more classic summertime weather over the course of the next several days. Initially, we are wet and cool today as a frontal boundary sits near the South Coast today with a wave of low pressure moving along it in response to a passing disturbance aloft. This will produce widespread showers, some heavy, including the risk of thunderstorms, although the immediate South Coast may have to wait a while to get into that rainfall while other areas are wettest this morning with a drying trend this afternoon as the disturbance exits. A subtle push southward of high pressure to the north will be enough to nudge that frontal boundary a bit further south tonight into Tuesday, which will be a mainly cloudy but mostly rain-free period of time for the region. Just a patch of drizzle may visit a few locations Tuesday in response to a broad onshore flow from the east, bringing in some low level moisture. After this, things start to change as high pressure riding starts to build in and a surface high to the south pushes that frontal boundary back to the north. A round of light rain or showers may occur Tuesday night or early Wednesday along the boundary as it pushes through, and Wednesday itself will be the day we transition into a warmer and more humid air mass, but a disturbance coming along from the west may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms, with timing somewhat uncertain and coverage also uncertain, as it will be at least partially dependent on how much sunshine and resultant solar heating we get to help destabilize the atmosphere. So that will be something to watch and fine-tune for Wednesday’s forecast. Thursday and Friday look like more classic mid summer days for us, very warm to hot with higher humidity and the opportunity for isolated to scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms, but many areas rain-free most of if not all of the time.

TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers with possible thunder through midday, tapering to just isolated light showers this afternoon but heavier showers may occur South Coast region through mid afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73, coolest NH Seacoast, warmest South Coast of MA & RI. Dew point middle to upper 60s except near 70 South Coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except SE to S nearer the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light drizzle possible. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point lowering to upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light drizzle possible. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and areas of fog early to mid morning. Partly sunny late morning through midday. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Large scale pattern is still somewhat active with a westerly flow and embedded disturbances. With some heat and humidity in place and a trough and frontal system approaching and passing through from west to east sometime during the July 17-18 weekend there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms at some point, favoring later Saturday and Sunday, but to be fine-tuned as we go through this week. Slightly quieter weather for a couple days behind the passage of that system with near to above normal temperatures but shower/storm threat may return before the period is over depending on the timing of the next disturbance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Similar pattern, but a little less active overall, still producing a shower and storm threat from time to time especially early and again toward the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

No big changes. Saturday may not have been stellar but did feature some sun despite lots of clouds for a good part of the day. The region overall saw most of its sun later in the day, and today will be somewhat reversed. The sun will be most dominant early in southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, although if you are in areas west of there you may have already lost it as of 7:30 a.m. if you even had any at all, as clouds are prevalent there, and some of them are moving northeastward and will be interrupting the sun in many areas soon. Eventually, the day turns out mostly cloudy, but rain-free. It’s not until later tonight that the rain returns, but this is going to lead to quite the wet and cool day for Monday, as a warm front approaches from the south. And that front will be in no hurry to pass through the region, so even though the best support for rain departs during Monday evening, Tuesday likely ends up as a cloudy and cool day, just with less or no rain. Finally, that front should amble its way northward through the region by Wednesday, but a disturbance from the west is likely to keep lots of clouds around along with triggering the chance of showers and thunderstorms. At this point, I’m not sure on the timing and coverage of those showers/storms, but will sort that out over the next few updates. By Thursday, we’re building high pressure in at the surface and aloft, so it looks like a return to the feel of summer at that time.

TODAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Dew point Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving late evening and overnight. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Highs 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering off. Areas of fog. Lows 59-66. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87, cooler in a few coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

The general pattern will feature westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow at the surface, but a series of disturbances will approach from the west. This pattern features warm to borderline hot weather, higher humidity, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A similar pattern may continue but with a slightly lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms day to day.

C-19 Chat Post – July 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

A so-so, not-too-bad weekend, especially compared to some of our recent weather, is what we’ll have. We still have a trough of low pressure moving through the New England area that will be flattening out and moving away later, and a surface boundary that is still making its way through the region from northwest to southeast. The day starts with lots of clouds and there is a swath of showers from central MA into southeastern NH and a few more showers and thunderstorms near Cape Cod and the Islands as of mid morning. These will all diminish as they move east northeastward, and as we get into more sun during the day the atmosphere remains just unstable enough for a few more pop up showers, favoring areas south of I-90 and especially the South Coast region. Finally, tonight and a good part of Sunday will feature quiet weather as a weak area of high pressure moves across the region. But a warm front will start to approach from the south later Sunday so that we’ll already be back in the clouds and there may be some areas of light rain around by evening. This weekend set-up does allow most areas to salvage most of the time rain-free, even if temperatures are running slightly below seasonal averages. Better than nothing. But we’re not done with the unsettled pattern quite yet, and Monday is going to make that very well known with more wet weather as that warm front moves ever-so-slowly northward into our region. It may take this front until sometime Tuesday or even Wednesday to fully pass through, although the support for rainfall will drop off as we get to those days, so expect a variable amount of cloudiness and some chance of shower activity, with a gradual warming trend to be taking place.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Morning showers central MA to southeastern NH diminishing as they move eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid morning and again this afternoon south of I-90 especially South Coast. Highs 73-80. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The general pattern will feature more westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow at the surface, but a series of disturbances will approach from the west. This pattern features warm to borderline hot weather, higher humidity, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Day-to-day details can’t be known in this pattern too far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A similar pattern may continue but with a slightly lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms day to day. Low confidence and a lot of re-evaluation to come for these days.

C-19 Chat Post – July 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Tropical Storm Elsa will cut a path across southeastern New England today, its center crossing RI and southeastern MA between late morning and early afternoon, exiting the coast mid afternoon, and accelerating away via the Gulf of Maine by tonight. The impacts here will be moderate. As is typical with a tropical system or one just starting to undergo its transition to non-tropical, the heaviest (steadiest) rainfall will be to the left of the center, with the stronger wind gusts to the right of the center, though there we will also see some heavy shower and thunderstorm clusters. Thunder may occur with the heavier rain to the left of the track as well. The tornado threat, also typical with a system like this, will be limited to an area from about Plymouth County of MA and the South Coast of RI eastward through Cape Cod, but this is also minimal (just not a zero threat). Our biggest issues with this system will be localized flooding due to heavy rain after an already wet week for most of the region mostly near and to the west of where the center tracks, and isolated pockets of wind damage and resultant power outages mostly near and to the east of where the center tracks. This will be over rather quickly, so don’t expect an all-day event. Some areas, especially south and west of Boston, may be seeing breaks of sun before mid afternoon and even areas to the north and east may get in on that before the day is over. Tonight, a weak frontal boundary moves into the region from the west and may set off a few showers and possible thunderstorms, with the greatest chance of thunder being near and south of I-90. This boundary will still be around for a while on Saturday before settling off to the south, so the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms is still in play, again favoring areas mostly south of I-90. This activity will be gone in time for a quiet Saturday night into Sunday, weather-wise, but you’ll notice an increase in cloudiness again during Sunday as that boundary decides it wants to be a warm front and starts a northward creep back into the region, which will take until late Monday to happen, so we’ll be back into some unsettled weather later Sunday through Monday with lots of clouds and occasional showers. It remains to be seen if the front pushes its way all the way through by Tuesday to put us back into a sector of warmer and muggy weather. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no, and I’m “on the fence” about it myself, so will cover both scenarios with generic wording in the detailed forecast below, then fine-tune as needed.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with areas of fog / drizzle / rain to start, then a swath of heavier rain left of Elsa’s track and numerous moderate to heavy showers right of Elsa’s track mid morning through early afternoon from south southwest to north northeast across the region. Embedded thunderstorms possible all areas. Clouds may break for partial sun from southwest to northeast mid afternoon on. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts left of Elsa’s track, SE shifting to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts right of Elsa’s track. Pockets of damaging wind may occur, including brief isolated small tornadoes, especially from Plymouth County and coastal RI eastward through noon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon but diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and a chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas near and south of I-90. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, cooler coastal areas.. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A frontal boundary and a couple of disturbances passing through the region will continue the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms at times July 14-16. Optimistic for a drier trend for the July 17-18 weekend with a bit more heat possible. The entire forecast is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Lower confidence in the medium range forecast at this time, but still thinking it may be a little more “classic” summertime here with a bit more heat and humidity with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – July 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

Our active early summer pattern continues, and we’ll be throwing a tropical storm into the mix, by name of Elsa. This will cross the region Friday during the day bringing a rain and wind event to southeastern New England. Before that happens, much of the region is now on the cooler side of a front that moved in from the north last evening, bringing another couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some with impressive lightning shows, as well as some pockets of wind damage. Another disturbance moved through at mid and upper levels from west to east right behind this front during the early morning hours, waking some of you up yet again with a round of heavy rain, lightning & thunder, but this has moved offshore. The frontal boundary now sits across far southern portions of southern New England and will set up a temperature contrast for today. The atmosphere above us remains unstable so as we go through the day there can be some additional shower and thunderstorms development. As we get to this evening, a plume of tropical moisture in advance of Elsa which will have pushed northward to our west will then slide eastward into the region and make the rainfall more widespread, though still showery in nature, and then the center of Elsa, while accelerating and just starting to lose tropical characteristics, will cut right across the region during Friday midday and afternoon. To the right of the track will come the strongest winds from the southeast and south, and to the left of the track a more east to northeasterly wind, gusty but less powerful, will occur, but here we will likely see some of the heaviest rainfall. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, and this includes a small potential of a couple of tropical variety small tornadoes in some of the heavier convective elements associated with the passing system, with these most likely occurring to the east of the storm’s track. By late in the day Friday, the low center is already pulling away and we’ll all be into a northwesterly wind on its back side, rather gusty, but with less rainfall. However some lingering instability and a trough that has to sink through the region can still help trigger a few showers Friday night and a few more showers or thunderstorms, favoring southern areas, through midday Saturday. The majority of the region will be rain-free on Saturday. By Sunday, a warm front is lifting toward the region with cloudiness and eventually the risk of some showers – not a washout of a day by any stretch, but not a perfect summer day either. Monday, we should find ourselves back in the warm sector with humid conditions, lots of clouds, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible morning and midday. Increased chance of showers during the afternoon. Highs 68-75 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from southwest to northeast by late afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E backing to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in southern NH and northern through central MA, and SE to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA and RI except 35-45 MPH with stronger gusts in coastal areas before shifting to NW later in the day and diminishing slightly. Potential damaging wind gusts in any heavier showers and storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds but still the chance of a shower. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts evening, becoming variable and diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms through midday favoring southern MA southward. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

A continued unsettled pattern overall with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary in and around the region. Temperatures variable, not all that far from normal when averaged out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

A little more high pressure dominant but still some disturbances passing through. The risk of showers and storms will be present at times and temperatures are expected to be variable but average near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Another very warm and muggy day today, with a bit more sun than yesterday, and with a cold front moving toward the region from the northwest, the ingredients will be in place for the development of showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon into this evening. Although the coverage of activity may end up a little less than yesterday’s was, some of the storms can still become quite strong to locally severe, so keep a close eye on the weather today. The cold front will move through the region this evening then settle just to the south of New England near the South Coast into Thursday, allowing cooler and only slightly less humid air to move in, but cloud cover will be extensive and there will be enough moisture around for additional showers, most of them Thursday afternoon and evening. A plume of tropical moisture in advance of Elsa, which at that time will be heading northeastward over land toward New England, will probably send the heaviest rain in advance of the system west of the WHW forecast area Thursday evening, and at the same time the frontal boundary that came through before will be lifting back as a warm front and returning higher humidity air to our region, just in time for the low pressure circulation of Elsa, which may still have some tropical characteristics, to move northeastward and probably right across southeastern New England on Friday. This is when our heaviest and most widespread rainfall will likely occur, along with embedded thunderstorms, some of which may rotate. We’ll have to keep an eye on these for potential pockets of wind damage. Otherwise the main threat on Friday will be local flooding from heavy rain. I remain optimistic for weekend improvement as a bubble of high pressure moves in behind the departing low pressure area for Saturday, but there will be enough residual moisture left behind so that a pop up shower cannot be ruled out. I do think the vast majority of the region will be dry for most of if not all of Saturday. A warm front may approach by later Sunday with more cloudiness, but for now this also looks like a rain-free and relatively low humidity day, not bad considering the pattern we’re in.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms can become strong to severe. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible morning and midday. Increased chance of showers during the afternoon. Highs 69-76. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from west to east during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, may be variable with strong gusts in heavier showers/storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

This 5-day period presents higher humidity again with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with temperatures mostly near normal as we’ll be in a pattern somewhat similar to this week’s, but likely without the addition of the remains of a tropical system this time. It most definitely won’t rain all the time, but we’ll probably track several opportunities for it.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Continued indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

C-19 Chat Post – July 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

Some of you may have been woken up by, or already were awake to see & hear, the overnight warm front thunderstorm activity that developed across central MA and moved eastward in the pre-dawn hours. This activity, while expected as at least a possibility, was a little bit more concentrated than I had thought it might be – an indication of some nice instability in the atmosphere which does not need daytime heating to be taken advantage of. We see that, espsecially with warm fronts, during the nighttime / early morning hours at times. The last of these showers and storms are exiting via the NH Seacoast and Cape Cod as I write this update. Our unstable atmosphere will be with us for a good part of today, and a trough moving across the region, with the aid of some heating, will trigger more showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon from west to east. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe, with damaging wind being the greatest threat. A few of these storms may produce hail as well. Any thunderstorm can produce a torrential downpour enough to cause localized flooding that is hazardous for travel, and of course lightning, which is dangerous no matter how “strong” the storm is. So be aware of this today, especially if you have travel plans or any outdoor plans. Things settle down this evening after the trough goes by, but we remain in a warm and humid air mass tomorrow and with an approaching cold front we will likely see another round or two of showers and thunderstorms in the region. The severe potential for tomorrow’s activity is a little bit lower, but still some potent storms are possible. The cold front settles to a position just south of New England or near the South Coast Wednesday night, then sits there, and will be the running board for a couple low pressure waves, including the remains of TS Elsa, which technically may be more than “remains”, as it may hold onto its identity rather nicely for a system that’s been over land for a while, and pass close to or even right over the region at some point during the first half or two thirds of Friday, based on current timing. This is when we have our potential to have our most widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. I remain optimistic for an area of high pressure moving in behind all of this for a nicer summer day on Saturday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. An early-morning shower or thunderstorm near the NH Seacoast and Cape Cod, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from west to east this afternoon, with isolated severe storms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early in RI and southeastern MA. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, mainly mid afternoon on. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms., ending from west to east during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

A little more optimistic for slower timing of movement of features meaning that high pressure can hold on for mostly dry weather July 11 to finish off the weekend, followed by a new stretch of unsettled weather as we have a series of disturbances move through with higher humidity and episodes of showers and thunderstorms at times.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

C-19 Chat Post – July 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

The “gift” that kept on giving. The upper low sent one more lobe of energy down across portions of the WHW forecast area last evening, bringing some showers to the region pretty much just in time for a lot of fireworks displays, but the ones scheduled all happened, because at that point I think everybody was pretty much used to the unsettled weather, everything was ready to go, and it just went ahead. At least there were no thunderstorms, nor did we see the widespread heavier rainfall of the previous few days. Finally, today, we get to say goodbye once and for all to that upper low, but not before it sends one final batch of clouds across the region this morning. Today will feature warmer weather than any of the past three days did, but it will be a modest warm-up, as most areas recover back to the 70s for highs, with relatively low humidity. But a warm front is heading this way, and will be evident by an increase in clouds again late today and tonight. I’ve been slightly concerned about some shower and thunderstorm activity with this warm front but I am pretty sure now that any activity will be rather isolated and favor areas to the north, but still cannot rule out an isolated shower/t-storm or two getting into the area in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Regardless, heat and humidity makes a re-appearance on Tuesday, and a trough approaching the region during the afternoon and evening will bring a round of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. Greatest chance for the strongest activity will be in southern NH, northern and central MA and possibly into northeastern CT and northern RI, with a decent chance the activity weakens as it heads southeastward by evening. Nevertheless, anybody with outdoor plans or travel plans in the area should be aware of the storm risk and keep a close eye on the weather. A quieter but warm and muggy Tuesday night will be followed by a hot and humid Wednesday, but a cold front will move into the region and bring the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms. That front will move into, but not completely through the region, likely hanging up somewhere near the South Coast and sitting through there Friday. This will allow a couple waves of low pressure to ride along it, and some of the moisture from the remains of Elsa to become involved Thursday night into Friday, keeping the weather unsettled into if not through Friday. This time, however, we won’t see the temperatures drop nearly as low as they did over the holiday weekend…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy into mid morning. Mostly sunny later morning on, but some clouds returning from the west again by late day. Highs 72-79. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Weak high pressure should move in for a fair weather interlude July 10. After that, it’s back to unsettled weather as another low pressure area and frontal systems move in from the west and take their time getting out of here, bringing higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.