7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)
A large circulation of low pressure will spin off the Atlantic Coast for the next 5 days. Some instability on the back side of the upper low offshore will bring the chance of a few snow and rain showers to the region later today. A stronger spoke of energy will bring a better chance of rain/snow showers later Saturday then snow showers Saturday night into early Sunday which may result in some minor accumulation. Drier air means more sun for Monday-Tuesday with the low further offshore and high pressure trying to build in from the west.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 38-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow showers likely, accumulation of a coating to 2 inches possible. Lows 24-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
A weakening system may bring some cloudiness March 28 as it stays cool. Milder air arrives March 29-30 with fair weather on March 29 and a chance of rain showers on March 30. Drying, windy, colder March 31. April 1, based on current timing, should be fair and a little milder.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)
The flow looks more progressive but we may set up a battle between Canadian cold and southern US warmth which could turn it more unsettled here. Still possible that a stronger push of cold air from Canada may win.

4:02PM

COMMENTARY
First, I’d like to apologize for the delay in this post and to thank you for being patient. Second, I was going to editorialize about the general public’s widely-held habit of bashing weather people for “getting it wrong”, but I don’t really think that’s necessary. The readers (and lurkers) of this blog know better, and for that I am grateful. Those who comment day in and day out are well aware of the process, some of them from dabbling in it themselves, and all from the experiences that I and a few other meteorologists share in the comments. There is a process that I and others go through daily to produce a forecast. Although there is slight variation day-to-day in this process, much of it is the same as the day before, but no matter how much experience a forecaster has, there are going to be exceedingly challenging forecasts. This was definitely one of them. At first, several days ago, I had this thing as a miss with “high confidence”. I should have known better. That’s the kiss of death on a forecast, declaring high confidence more than a couple days in advance. Alright, harsh reminder there. Then when I knew this would not be a complete miss the process of trying to figure out its impact began. This in itself is now more complicated that it should be. Oh the forecasting part is hard enough, but it’s a challenge I welcome and very much enjoy. The greater challenge and often losing battle is doing it the way I feel is right, but that puts me in a tiny sailboat on a chaotic sea of media hype. And I’m not talking about my fellow TV meteorologists. We all have our opinions on how they present their information, but we are all really working toward a common goal – informing the pubic. Unlike myself, they are under intense pressure from managers and others who scrutinize everything they do to not only get the information out there but “entertain” the audience. I’m not sure what words are used, but they are told to play the hype game. And what a difficult spot that leaves them in, as they really want to just get the information out there, but have to “please the boss” in the process. Yes, it is a ratings game, but somewhere along the way that took precedence over delivering quality information, correct or incorrect. I’m not even sure the public is getting the message any more. In talking to people I encounter during the day, they are not really getting it. Perhaps having a “bust” storm like this one is a good thing in that it teaches a lesson to the media outlets what too much hype can lead to. But are they really paying attention enough to learn the lesson? And if they do learn it, how long until complacency sets in and its forgotten, leaving the cycle to begin anew? All I can do is keep sailing my boat…

A QUICK LOOK BACK AT THE STORM THAT WAS (AND WASN’T)
I don’t need to go into too much detail here as it was already explained in the comments section of the previous blog posts, but in case anybody missed it. I referred to my forecasting process in the commentary above. For this event, once I knew it was going to impact us, I was nervous about the dry air to the north, as depicted, it turns out quite accurately, by several runs of the ECMWF (European) forecast model. But since it was basically the only model doing that, it naturally lead to a little skepticism about its solution, but not enough in me to completely ignore it. I’ve seen this before, more than once, with a somewhat similar set-up, and that model being the only one to see something. I couldn’t shake that, so I opted to play it safe, forecasting enough snow to give the idea of decent impact, but leaving it just above a level I could adjust to if my drier scenario worked out, without looking like I was hacking my forecast to shreds with a hatchet. The fact is, this rather impressive storm system was up against a brick wall of dry air, and took quite some time to eat into it. Why did it rain for a while in areas that snow was forecast? Simple. The forecast of colder air was depending on steadier and widespread precipitation helping to cool the atmosphere enough to support snow. When the storm held off to the south pretty much all day, the atmosphere was able to warm enough to not support snow in a good portion of the region, so once areas of relatively light precipitation moved in, it was rain, not snow, and then the process had to take place when finally, in the overnight hours, enough precipitation had eroded the dry air to do the process that was forecast hours before. While this was going on, the heavy bands of precipitation that were forecast to be working into southern New England were instead about 25 to 40 miles further south, thanks to a little wobble in the elongated low pressure center, keeping the storm just a touch further offshore than had been expected. With 5 inches of snow falling at Islip, Long Island, NY, in a little over 1 hour, it is clearly evident just how close Southern New England was to having a much different outcome. In terms of a forecast miss, distance-wise it is not that much, but impact-wise, it made a world of difference. All I can say is I am glad I took the chance and lowered snow amounts by late evening to reflect that the full potential of this was not to be realized. This is not a claim of victory by any stretch, but a sigh of relief that my forecast didn’t have as far to fall flat on its face. So, on we go to look ahead…

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)
So the storm is gone, or is it? Our double-barrel storm and its attendant upper level low pressure area isn’t really going away, and will actually have an impact on the weather here for this entire 5-day period. Today’s impact has already been seen, since I’m putting out this blog late in the afternoon. During the next few days, some instability on the back side of the upper low offshore will bring the chance of a few snow and rain showers to the region, especially midday and afternoon Friday and again for a portion of Saturday. A stronger lobe of energy may bring a more widespread area of snow showers in the early to mid morning hours of Sunday, so if you wake up Sunday morning to what looks like a snowstorm in progress, it should not be hanging around all that long. By Monday, it will be precipitation-free, but a northerly flow will persist, with chilly weather continuing. Forecast details…
THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow and drizzle mainly near the eastern MA coast. Temperatures ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 38-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)
The last 5 days of March will start out dry/cool as the final influence of the offshore storm hangs on while high pressure builds in. It looks like a weakening system may bring some cloudiness March 28 but may be absent of precipitation, and the March 29-30 period may be milder, starting fair and ending showery, but probably rain showery versus snow showery. Based on current timing, drier but windy/colder weather is expected for the last day of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)
A more progressive west to east flow is expected as the blocking pattern will have broken down during the final days of March. This would mean up and down temperatures and weaker storm systems, one of these likely around April 2 or 3 dividing a milder start for the period from a colder finish.

4:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
What to expect with the storm system set to impact the region today and Thursday…
Precipitation start time: Mid to late morning South Coast, midday to early afternoon Mass Pike belt, late afternoon to early evening northern MA through southern NH.
Precipitation end time: From west to east between dawn and late morning Thursday.
Precipitation type: May start as rain South Coast to MA South Shore and may stay mixed with rain off and on during storm outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, otherwise snow, wettest consistency southeastern MA and more medium consistency north and west of Boston.
Snow accumulation: 2-4 inches southern NH through north central MA but may be a sharp cut-off somewhere in here to under 2 inches. 2-4 inches outer to middle portion of Cape Cod and 2 inches or less Nantucket. 4 to 8 inches most other locations, but pockets of greater than 8 inches are possible in a few locations interior southeastern MA, northern RI, and eastern CT, though not certain that this will occur. Wind: Top gusts from the NE Wednesday night of 35-45 MPH in coastal areas, but 45-55 MPH gusts possible over Cape Cod and Nantucket.
Coastal flooding: Minor to moderate flooding will be concentrated around the 3:15AM high tide Thursday morning.
Power outages: Isolated to scattered outages as there still are some trees and power systems weakened from recent storms, but not expecting power issue to be as significant as previous events.
Overall discussion…
The well advertised system, in 2 parts, is really only impacting this area from its second part as the first passed just to the south Tuesday. This second part will be a surface storm that evolves as a broad upper low moves eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This pattern is similar to the one that produced the other storms, though the overall intensity of this system will be less than its predecessors. The track of the surface low will be southeast of Nantucket, though the storm may do a small loop as it goes by. The snowfall accumulation associated with the system, detailed above, will take place between sunset and dawn, in general. After the system moves away later Thursday, broad upper level low pressure just to the east of New England will deflect what was originally a possible weekend threat to the southeast and weaken it, but during the Friday-Sunday period some snow showers may still occur at times along with continued colder than normal weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow, some coastal rain at the start, advancing northward gradually during the day. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 10-25 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH coast, with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, but may mix with rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. See above for snow accumulations. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, strongest along the coast where gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely. A few 45-55 MPH gusts possible Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow southeastern NH and eastern MA with little additional accumulation. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind N 15-25 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 34-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Windy at times. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
Though temperatures will average near to below normal during this Monday-Friday period overall, a couple milder days are expected, and a weaker weather system may produce light precipitation, rain favored over snow, around the middle of the week.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A potential precipitation event sometime during the March 31 – April 1 weekend then fair weather returning. A more west to east flow should allow a more seasonable temperature regime to become established.

7:55AM

EDITED AT 4:30PM FOR SNOW AMOUNT ADJUSTMENT

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
Dry and cold today as high pressure holds off the first of 2 storms to the south, then gives way to the second storm during Wednesday into early Thursday. There is still some question as to the total impact of the storm, snow-wise, in the region as it will be a bit of an unusual configuration and movement and difficult to time the behavior of the surface low in relation to the upper level system spawning it. For now, hold onto the general idea of yesterday but adding slightly to the snow accumulation to account for more of the snow at night. There is still another 24 hours to nail down the details for the next full blog post as the event will just be getting underway tomorrow. Drier weather is back late week, but still chilly. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 22-28. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow but only minor accumulation on unpaved surfaces later in the day. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH northwestern areas, 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH southeastern areas.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except may mix with rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches most areas, but an area of under 2 inches possible north central MA and southwestern NH and an area of 4-7 inches possible interior southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Lows 24-33. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow southeastern NH and eastern MA with little additional accumulation. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind N 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
Still watching a potential system for March 25 but it may pass to the south. A little uncertain thereafter with one more possible system late in the month but some moderation in temperature as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
May start mild then a cooler trend comes back with a risk of some unsettled weather as well. Low confidence forecast continues in the longer range.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Dry and cold is the theme but enough evidence exists that the dry part will be interrupted by a swath of precipitation thrown into southeastern New England by the second member of a double-barrel low pressure area passing south of the region between late Tuesday and early Thursday. The timing on the precipitation, mainly snow, would be Wednesday, arriving during the day and departing during the night. At this time it looks more like a sideswipe but along with a healthy wind as there will be a strong high pressure area to the north, resulting in a significant pressure gradient between itself and the passing storm. This causes a concern for some coastal flooding at the high tide times early Wednesday and Thursday, as well as the one that comes between the two of those. Not expecting anything like the flooding of previous storms. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy north. Mostly cloudy south. Lows 22-28. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Partial sun northwest, cloudy with snow likely southeast including a small accumulation southern MA and RI with locally moderate amounts possible by evening. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH northwestern areas, 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Lingering snow showers Cape Cod otherwise mostly to partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
Next storm threat late March 24 into March 25 with rain/mix/snow possible. Mainly dry March 26-28. Temperatures start the period below normal them moderate to near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
May start mild then a cooler trend comes back with a risk of some unsettled weather as well. Low confidence forecast.

8:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
No changes from yesterday’s discussion. Will continue to watch a storm system passing south of the region midweek but still feel it’s a miss here. Can’t let guard down this far in advance, however. Otherwise, it’s cold and dry domination with a northwest flow from Canada.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
Next storm threat comes during the March 24-25 weekend but unsure of details at this point. Otherwise temperatures remain below normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
A couple milder days possible but still a couple weather systems may threaten the region with some precipitation.

9:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
If you have any outdoor plans this St. Patrick’s Day you’ll want to dress for mid winter as an already cold air mass is reinforced by an arctic cold front moving through the region. This front may produce some scattered snow showers this afternoon. Then it’s dry and continued cold for the remainder of the weekend into at least early next week, though toward midweek will continue to monitor a complex storm system coming off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Feeling at this time is that out-of-phase jet streams resulting in northwesterly flow near the Canadian Maritimes drives the southern stream system east instead of allowing it to come up this way. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers this afternoon, greatest chance southern NH / northern MA. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to NW late. Wind chill near 20 at times.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 10-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
For now looks like any storminess remains suppressed to the south early in the period but by later March 24 or 25 a system from the west may bring a precipitation threat. Overall, temperatures remain below normal through the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
With low confidence I say there is a chance of one or two days of above average temperatures in this period as we head down the home stretch of March. Meteorological investigation ongoing…

2:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
The continued blocking pattern will result in 5 days of cold and mainly dry weather with the exception of a few snow showers from a reinforcing cold front on Saturday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 32-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
Blocking continues and the next storm threat, a bit delayed from the previous outlook, looms for the first half of this period. The details are unknown, but as it stands now there will be some risk of rain/mix/snow from one or two low centers passing south of the region. Still a chance that high pressure may be strong enough to force the bulk of these systems far enough south to be a graze or even a miss. Should be dry by the very end of the period as temperatures remain below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
Overall pattern looks drier again, and not quite as cold, relative to normal, but not seeing any signs of a bit warm-up either.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
The blocking pattern rolls on but for the next stretch of days it will place us in a cold and dry regime with dominant high pressure, centered in eastern Canada, and a fairly persistent north to northwest flow over the northeastern US. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
Blocking pattern hangs on, watching a couple storm threats during this period. Early feeling is that the first threat may stay mostly south of the region though if it comes close enough snow/mix would be possible, then later in the period another system brings a snow/mix/rain threat. The Vernal Equinox occurring on March 20 may be the first day of spring, but that doesn’t mean we suddenly flip to warm and sunny, not around here.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
A drier trend but temperatures may average on the cooler side of normal as the pattern blocks any real warm-ups from occurring.

7:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)
Storm’s gone! Cleanup ongoing. Let’s hope this stretch of somewhat more quiet weather will allow repairs to damage, restoration of power, and cleanup of snow & debris from this and other storms to get done. Just some snow showers/squalls later today with a disturbance moving through, and maybe a few lighter ones Thursday. Fair weather but a March chill will dominate Friday through the weekend.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing snow showers and risk of a heavier snow squall in a few locations that may cause low visibility and a small snow accumulation. Highs 32-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Dry March 19. Watching a storm risk (rain/mix/snow) March 20-21 but this could also end up passing south of the region. Dry March 22-23. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Next storm threat with rain favored March 24, then improving weather. Temperatures closer to normal.

2:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
Sometimes the overall pattern is very predictable. It’s always the little details that are the problem. Back in late February there were 3 “watcher periods” identified for potential storms during an extended blocking weather pattern. March 1-4 was tagged and we saw storm #1 on March 2. March 6-9 was tagged and we saw storm #2 on March 7-8, and March 11-15 was tagged and we are about to get hammered with #3 today. The details? Even going into this our guidance has quite the range in snowfall totals for the event, and there is always some question in the bigger snow events just where heavier banding will set up. Still thinking the NH Seacoast, Cape Ann MA, and southeastern MA take the main band today and there will probably be another one somewhere from western RI to central CT and adjacent MA, though this may not be as extensive. As of the writing of this update, the precipitation is getting underway, but as discussed on the previous comments section, it’s starting off as rain in many coastal areas and even just inland from RI into eastern MA. As of 2AM, rain was falling on the Cape & Islands, southern RI, southeastern MA, Metro Boston, and even as far inland as Reading & Woburn. During the hours following this, colder air from above will overcome the mild surface air and these areas will turn over to snow. It will take a little while for the snow to cover the roads in areas that were milder, but this will change quickly not long after dawn. We often worry about snow accumulation during the day in March but since heavy enough bands will be in the region we won’t see much of an issue with accumulation during the day today. Also, with the tightening pressure gradient and frequent wind gusts to or above 35 MPH, we can see blizzard conditions from the NH Seacoast through Cape Ann MA and along the South Shore through Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard, hence the blizzard warning issued by the NWS. Once the cold air takes over an initially wetter snow turns drier in most areas but will still be a little on the wet side over Cape Cod where power outage risk is highest. But overall there will be fewer power issues than with the last 2 events. As far as coastal issues, only minor flooding is expected, far less of a problem than the previous events. As the storm pulls away the main snow will taper off but some wrap-around snow showers will continue tonight and even into Wednesday, kept going by upper level energy crossing the region. Some of this may even persist Thursday into Friday before drier air overtakes the region Saturday.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern areas. Blowing snow at times. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, strongest coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Steady snow ending but additional snow showers possible, especially northern MA and southern NH. Total accumulation a widespread 8-16 inches, but 16-22 inches possible NH Seacoast, Cape Ann MA, southeastern MA except lesser amounts outer Cape Cod and Islands. Blowing snow at times. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing snow showers. Highs 32-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
Dry March 18-19. Watching a storm risk (rain/mix/snow) March 20-21 but this could also end up passing south of the region. Dry March 22. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Next storm threat with rain favored March 24, then improving weather. Temperatures closer to normal.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
High pressure slips away today. The 3rd in a series of major storms impacts the region Tuesday as low pressure evolving today over the Mid Atlantic moves off the coast and turns northeastward, passing southeast of New England, interacting with an upper low approaching from the west out of the Great Lakes. The interaction of these and track of the main storm will determine exact snowfall amounts, especially where the heaviest bands set up. For now, going for these to be from the NH Seacoast through Cape Ann MA and over southeastern MA. Still some wiggle-room left so check updates in comments below. A new blog post will appear tonight if necessary. Quieter weather behind the departing storm as it now appears any additional unsettled weather will be forced to the south of the region later in the week after just upper level low pressure and the offshore storm combine for a few snow showers at midweek.
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving south to north from about 10PM on, may start as mix/rain parts of Cape Cod. Lows 25-32. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern areas. Blowing snow at times. Temperatures generally steady 25-32. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, strongest coastal areas.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow ending. Total accumulation a widespread 8-16 inches, but 16-22 inches possible NH Seacoast, Cape Ann MA, southeastern MA except lesser amounts outer Cape Cod and Islands. Blowing snow at times. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing snow showers. Highs 32-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Dry March 17-18. Risk of unsettled weather March 19 to early March 20, then dry again. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Risk of rain about the middle of the period otherwise dry to start and end the period with temperatures closer to normal.

10:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
Today provides a break in the harsh weather that has been March so far, as high pressure dominates, but don’t get used to it. Here comes another storm threat. As described yesterday, this next threat will be comprised of a complex set-up with a developing coastal / ocean storm in the subtropical jet stream off the Mid Atlantic, and a strong disturbances coming eastward from the Great Lakes associated with the polar jet stream, and a trough of low pressure connecting the two, as if they are extending their arms to start an atmospheric dance. Although they will not be fully joined until beyond the region, the intensification of the southern stream system system and its northward turn, as well as the development of moisture between the two system, will likely be enough to bring a significant snowfall on Tuesday. Upper level low pressure and offshore surface low pressure will bring blustery, chilly March weather with a snow shower threat midweek.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing late. Lows 24-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast with snow, but possibly mix/rain for a time immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. Early call accumulations a widespread 4 to 8 inches except under 4 inches immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. Highs 31-39. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
A more progressive pattern evolves during this period with the threat of light precipitation as warm air tries to move back in March 16, but probably fails as low pressure passes over or south of the region with a rain/mix/snow threat to start March 17 then windy/colder later that day and March 18. Next system brings rain/snow threat March 19 for the final day of winter, with clearing to follow, if current timing holds, for the Vernal Equinox on March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)
Quick warm-up early in the period, then another storm threat followed by a shot of cooler air late in the period.

9:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Low pressure offshore and high pressure trying to build in from the west results in a dry day but with a chilly wind and some clouds and even a few snow showers today. more sunshine and less wind Sunday with high pressure more in control. We’ve been watching the storm threat for early next week for quite some time and the current thought process is that the main storm will pass well offshore to the southeast late Monday night and Tuesday while a northern jet stream system and a connection between that and the offshore storm will be enough to produce some snow here, though not a big storm. Will detail the snow chances and eventually amounts as it gets closer. A combined larger storm offshore by Wednesday means a chilly northerly flow and upper level energy will still trigger the chance of snow showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A few passing snow showers possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-28. NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
Upper level low pressure and offshore surface low pressure hangs on with additional wind, cold, and snow showers March 15. Pattern starts to progress with the next system bringing clouds and a threat of light precipitation March 16 and a shot of mix/snow for part of March 17, depending on its track, before wind/cold arrives March 18. Next system brings rain/snow threat March 19.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
Progressive pattern but still active with another storm threat by late in the period.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
An upper level low pressure area will cross the region this afternoon and evening, triggering some snow showers and possible snow squalls. Anybody that experiences a snow squall can see visibility drop very low in brief heavy snow and gusty wind, but it will not last long. High pressure builds in for a decent weekend, though it will still be breezy and chilly between the advancing high and low pressure offshore especially early in the weekend. Watching the next storm system that will pass south of the region later Monday and early Tuesday, but perhaps close enough for a period of snow/mix. Upper level low pressure lingering over the region Tuesday will at least produce snow showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon snow showers except rain or snow showers South Coast. Isolated heavier snow squalls possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers/squalls early. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-28. NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
Another upper level low pressure system crosses the region March 14-15 with a snow shower risk, and will watch for the spawning of a stronger offshore storm system. A faster-moving weather pattern evolves and advancing milder air may bring a risk of light precipitation by March 16, high pressure brings fair weather March 17, and a low pressure wave and cold front brings a risk of rain showers by March 18. Timing a little uncertain with this being beyond 5 days away.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
A more progressive pattern means up/down temperatures and passing weaker weather systems.