DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
Now that we’re into the second month of meteorological winter, it’s time to look ahead to see if the pattern transition prognosticated in the winter outlook back in November has any signs of getting underway. It won’t take long to determine that the answer is yes. After a mild and essentially snowless December (or top 5 least-snowy on record for much of the region), we’re going to see an active pattern start to bring some snow chances, the start of the first of these being on the ending time border of this 5-day outlook. But before we get to that, it’s time to look at the more immediate future. First, we have high pressure to provide a bright, dry, seasonably chilly day today. A weak disturbance will swing across northern New England and a little extension of a low pressure trough will send a batch of clouds through the region during the first half of the day on Wednesday. I previously had a snow shower threat in the forecast from this feature, but feel the need to remove it as it seems like the air will simply be too dry. Thursday, a progressive upper trough swings through the East Coast region. This system actually has 2 parts, a southern jet stream trough that will ignite low pressure offshore, well to our southeast, that will move quickly out to sea. That feature may bring a touch of light rain to the South Coast, if anything. A northern jet stream disturbance will push a cold front through our region and this may bring a rain or snow shower to a few locations, but nothing significant. Another area of high pressure builds in on Friday with fair, seasonably chilly weather. This high keeps it dry and chilly on Saturday, but this day will feature sun starting to fade behind increasing clouds in advance of a more potent El Nino driven southern jet stream storm system. We may see snow arriving from this system as early as Saturday evening…
TODAY: Unlimited sun. Highs 34-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Some clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Some clouds morning, especially north of I-90, otherwise more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers through early afternoon, then partial sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Winter storm threat to start the period on January 7. At forecast day 6 there is still a lot of uncertainty to clarify in terms of the exact track of low pressure, precipitation intensity and orientation, as well as type, though snow is favored over rain at this point for much of the region. Current leaning is a driving upper trough that is not too amplified and a fairly progressive low center passing south of New England with a cold high to the north, and a widespread snowfall with higher odds of heavier snowfall to the south and lighter to the north. Please note this isn’t even close to a final call and there are several days left to fine tune the system’s impacts. Post-storm return to dry weather January 8, but next system brings precipitation chances right back to the region later January 9 into January 10 before dry weather returns behind that system at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Active pattern into mid month with another window of opportunity for storminess focused on January 12-14. No major temperature anomalies indicated.