7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)
High pressure aloft will dominate the weather for the next several days. Weakening surface boundaries will try to get close to the region starting late in the weekend but they only bring remote risks for a few showers and thunderstorms as heat and humidity will be back in the picture by then. I hesitate to even put them in the forecast but will, just in case. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine filtered by high altitude smoke at first then becoming brighter. Highs 76-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-56 interior areas with coolest in the valleys to 56-62 elsewhere with mildest in urban areas. Wind light variable to SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Slightly more humid. Remote risk of a weakening shower far northwest of Boston by evening. Highs 75-80 immediate shores and Cape Cod, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind light SW to S with sea breezes.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Remote risk of isolated thunderstorm mainly far inland. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms interior late day. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s but cooler some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
High pressure aloft will be in control with more heat during much of this period, including some higher humidity as well. A couple disturbances passing north of the region will be close enough to trigger shower and thunderstorm chances and if high pressure in eastern Canada is strong enough it may help get one of those boundaries through here with a bit of a cool-down later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
General pattern remains the same but will have to watch for a quick cooler interlude of high pressure moving across Canada noses southward far enough. That may also mean we’ll be close to a surface boundary and may experience a higher risk of some shower and thunderstorm activity at times.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)
A final trough moving through the area keeps clouds and perhaps results in a brief shower this morning but then you can expect more sunshine and comfortable air today. High pressure then takes control of the weather for several days which start out quite comfortable with a warming trend, then an eventual return to higher humidity. Forecast details…
TODAY: Lots of clouds and a possible brief shower until mid morning then increasing sunshine. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-53 interior valleys, 54-60 elsewhere. Wind light NW to N.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-56 interior areas with coolest in the valleys to 56-62 elsewhere with mildest in urban areas. Wind light variable to SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Slightly more humid. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s, some 70s Cape Cod and immediate shores.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
High pressure aloft will be in control with more heat during much of this period, including some higher humidity as well. A couple disturbances passing north of the region will be close enough to trigger shower and thunderstorm chances from time to time. At this time of year we also have to keep an eye on sea breeze boundaries for possible storm development focus regions too.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
General pattern remains the same but will have to watch for a quick cooler interlude of high pressure moving across Canada noses southward far enough. That may also mean we’ll be close to a surface boundary and may experience a higher risk of some shower and thunderstorm activity at times.

7:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)
This is the one unsettled day of the week and it’s caused by a warm front / cold front combination moving across the region, first the warm front which is currently doing so from southwest to northeast with a fairly widespread area of rain and embedded downpours. Have to watch this area for a relatively short time until late morning in case a stronger thunderstorm as able to get going within it, as this would have the potential for damaging wind. It is a long shot chance. A wedge of very humid air will briefly visit between the 2 fronts, and the cold front will charge eastward across there region bringing a broken to scattered line of showers and thunderstorms. With this line there is a low probability of damaging wind gusts, but again any of that would be isolated. This line will cross Cape Cod later in the day. By evening, it’s gone and in comes a refreshing air mass from Canada. Removing the shower risk for Thursday’s forecast, just some fair weather clouds decorating the sky in an otherwise very nice late summer day. High pressure settles across the region Friday through Sunday which will feature great summer weather but a gradual warming trend and a slight increase in humidity daily. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through late morning with numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. Partly sunny midday and afternoon with a possible passing shower or thunderstorm west to east, earliest in central MA and eastern CT, then across southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, and lastly Cape Cod. Becoming very humid especially late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 76-84. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH then shifting to W later in the day from west to east with higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Drying out. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-53 interior valleys, 54-60 elsewhere. Wind light NW to N.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from around 50 interior valleys to around 60 urban areas. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Slightly more humid. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s, some 70s Cape Cod and immediate shores.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure aloft will be in control with more heat during much of this period, including some higher humidity as well. A couple disturbances passing north of the region will be close enough to trigger shower and thunderstorm chances from time to time. At this time of year we also have to keep an eye on sea breeze boundaries for possible storm development focus regions too.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
General pattern remains the same but will have to watch for a quick cooler interlude of high pressure moving across Canada noses southward far enough. That may also mean we’ll be close to a surface boundary and may experience a higher risk of some shower and thunderstorm activity at times.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)
Easterly air flow for one more day, keeping clouds dominant today. Warm front passes through from southwest to northeast tonight and early Wednesday when the most numerous showers and possible storms will occur, then wet get into the muggy air for several hours Wednesday between it and an approaching cold front, which means scattered to isolated shower and thunderstorm activity though I suspect any given location will probably have several rain-free hours. We will have to watch any storms as they could be strong. A shot of cooler, drier air follows the cold front and we enjoy that Thursday before a warm-up follows. Still not ruling out an isolated shower or storm Thursday as an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight from southwest to northeast. Increasingly humid. Lows 62-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms early morning, then partly sunny with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms remainder of day. Humid. Highs 77-85, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early, favoring eastern areas. Lowering humidity. Lows 60-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun to clouds. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SATURDAY: Clouds to sun. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)
Summer pattern dominates with high pressure in general control, but surface boundaries and energy from the jet stream not too far to the north can help trigger showers and thunderstorms a few times during this period as well.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
General pattern remains the same but will have to watch for a quick cooler interlude of high pressure moving across Canada noses southward far enough.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)
The cooler interlude has 2 more days to go, then a warm front brings showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday, returning the humidity to the region. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with a few showers/thunderstorms and that will be the one humid day of this week. Though it will be warmer Thursday and Friday than today and Tuesday, somewhat drier air will again return to the region. The only change from yesterday’s forecast is to add the risk of an isolated shower Thursday as a disturbance crosses the region behind the cold front from the day before. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight risk of a South Coast shower. Highs 68-76, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-76, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a slight risk of a thunderstorm especially after midnight. Increasingly humid. Lows 62-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely early, then isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)
During this period a transition back to a hotter pattern will take place as high pressure ridges from the Midwest and the eastern Atlantic merge. Though we will see more humidity again, at the moment it doesn’t look like it will be as oppressive as recent days have been. Rain chances will be more limited overall, but cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms at times as a couple disturbances get close to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
Current indications are for a hot end of August and start of September, with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities as high pressure dominates.

11:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)
A reprieve has been granted by Mother Nature. A few days of somewhat cooler and less humid weather begins today and lasts through Tuesday. Humidity makes a brief return Wednesday before a front again pushes it out again. Going to spare a long synoptic discussion today in the interest of time and that I’m late with this update, so onto the forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with clouds most dominant in southeastern MA and RI/eastern CT where a few showers are also possible. Less humid. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, gusts to around 20 MPH in elevated and coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight risk of a South Coast shower. Highs 68-76, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially late day and favoring areas south and west of Boston. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely at night. Highs 70-78. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms favoring the morning hours. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)
During this period a transition back to a hotter pattern will take place as high pressure ridges from the Midwest and the eastern Atlantic merge. Though we will see more humidity again, at the moment it doesn’t look like it will be as oppressive as recent days have been. Showers cannot be ruled out at the start of this transition around August 24, then thunderstorms may occur as a trough gets into the area August 26. Other days should see limited or no activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
Current indications are for a hot end of August and start of September, with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities as high pressure dominates.

11:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)
One more thunderstorm day for parts of the region as a cold front moves through from northwest to southeast. After a few scattered showers preceding it, we’ll see a scattered to broken line of showers/storms forming late morning from eastern NY across southern VT and NH then progressing southeastward across the region during the course of the day, finally reaching the South Coast by this evening. Not everybody is going to get hit with a storm, but those that day can see a potent one with downpours and a period of intense lightning, including some wind gusts. The front is even going to really get that far offshore of the South Coast so there will be additional threat for showers near there through Monday, and then the front comes back Tuesday as a warm front with more unsettled weather. We get into the warm sector for a while Wednesday with higher humidity again and a cold front then approaches bringing a threat of showers/thunderstorms all over again. But it is too far away to know any details on timing, coverage, strength, etc. so the usual fine-tuning will take place going forward. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms forming northern areas midday through early afternoon then scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms progressing southeastward through the remainder of the day. Any storms can be strong. Humid. Highs 75-84, coolest in coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty and variable around any storms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Highs 70-77. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Highs 70-77. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible, especially later in the day. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Chance of showers/thunderstorms late. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except 70s some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)
Drier but warm August 23. Shower risk with increasing humidity August 24. Warm to hot and humid August 25-27 with isolated showers/thunderstorms as the Bermuda High regains control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
This period looks warm to hot and fairly humid with occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though limited.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)
A few changes on today’s forecast, which in the short term has been giving me headaches, as well as in the medium term. Such is the way of trying to see ahead. Today and Saturday a disturbance crosses the region, sending its warm from through today with a band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later in the day to early evening. At the moment I am not overly concerned about any severe weather. The cold front portion of this disturbance will cross the region during Saturday with another couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but with a drying trend from the northwest later in the day. This front never gets that far south and although we do get some drier and somewhat cooler air from Canada for the end of the weekend and start of next week, it’s not going to be accompanied by bright blue skies and sunshine each of those days. Clouds will hang around due to the closer proximity of the front including a weak wave of low pressure moving along it, that keeps a shower threat near the South Coast at times, and as the front tries to advance back northeastward as a warm front later Tuesday there may end up being the threat of showers in more of the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Most sun this morning. Least sun this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west to east mid afternoon through early evening. Highs 76-84. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers favoring eastern areas early. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring central MA and eastern CT to RI overnight. Lows 64-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with the chance decreasing from northwest to southeast later in the day. Highs 75-83. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Highs 70-77. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible, especially later in the day. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)
A quick shot of warm/humid air August 22 but with a shower/thunderstorm risk. Drier but warm August 23. Shower risk with increasing humidity August 24. Warm to hot and humid August 25-26 weekend with isolated showers/thunderstorms as the Bermuda High regains control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)
The last several days of the month look warm to hot at times, humid, with occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though limited.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)
Heat makes a quick return today on a light northwesterly air flow and there may just enough instability in the atmosphere to kick off an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though the risk for any one region is very slight. A disturbance will cross the region Friday into Saturday with a couple opportunities for showers and storms. And that previously-advertised potential of a cooler shot of air comes to fruition Sunday and Monday, our first delivery of drier air from Canada in a while, before it warms back up a bit by the end of the period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 64-70. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple episodes of scattered to general showers and thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorm can be strong especially well west of Boston. Highs 76-84. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms can be strong. Lows 64-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with the chance decreasing from north to south. Highs 75-83. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)
Warming back up during this period. A front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms August 22 with another threat around August 25.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)
Late August looks warmer than average, humid, and with a few additional shower and thunderstorm opportunities, though not as wet as the first half of the month was.

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)
High pressure moves in today and dominates through Thursday. Next disturbance arrives with a shower and thunderstorm threat Friday into Saturday, with another on its heels for late Sunday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly morning. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s, coolest coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers, mainly late-day. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)
Shower risk into August 20 and again late August 21 and August 23 as a series of disturbances cross the region. Temperatures fairly close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-28)
High pressure backs up and strengthens a little bit off the East Coast, returning more heat and limiting rainfall.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)
The pattern that set itself up at the end of last week, high pressure further east offshore and a series of weak troughs making their way through the Northeast, will continue through this period. We will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm development later today, after areas of dense fog burn off to a sky of clouds mixed with sun. I have been concerned about possible strong storms, but I do think it will remain stable enough over most of the region today to prevent this, with most of the heavier activity occurring west of the region. Still looking for a drier interlude later Wednesday and Thursday before the next disturbance arrives during Friday and departs during Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of dense fog into mid morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers mainly afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly morning. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)
Another risk of showers August 19 with the next in a series of disturbances, followed by another one about August 21 and possibly August 23. Temperature fairly close to normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
High pressure backs up and strengthens a little bit off the East Coast, returning more heat and limiting rainfall.

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)
High pressure remains off the East Coast but far enough to have allowed an upper level low pressure area to toy with the region for a few days, and in some cases result in flooding rain. This low keeps it unsettled for a few more days but each of these days will have a slightly different character, today being the coolest and most damp of the days with a continue light northeasterly fair flow, Tuesday feeling more tropical with a more southerly flow, and also a day we have to watch for what won’t be a widespread severe outbreak by any means but the possibility that a few strong storms may develop, and Wednesday will be a day that is warm but may start to feel a bit of a drop off in the humidity as the wind turns more westerly after our low pressure area, which starts out south of the region, backs up to the west and becomes part of the larger scale pattern then swings back through as a trough from west to east by the middle of the week. This sets up a nice day Thursday, which for now I will leave showers out of the forecast, only to bring them back as a risk for Friday as another disturbance approaches from the west. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. Isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 67-72 coast, 72-77 inland. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk of a few strong storms late in the day. Humid. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)
Shower risk early August 18 then drying out as one disturbance moves out to the east. Shower risk returns August 19 as another disturbance moves in from the west. Another disturbance comes through around August 21 with a shower/thunderstorm risk as the ridge to the east remains far enough out there to allow the same pattern to continue.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
Quick shot of cooler air comes early in this period followed by a return to heat as high pressure strengthens off the East Coast. Limited rainfall.

11:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)
Not too much to change or add for today’s update. Low pressure to the south of New England continues to deliver a humid and relatively cool (in comparison to recent weather) episode with occasional wet weather including heavy downpours. This will go on through tomorrow in the form it’s in now, then take on a little more tropical feel by Tuesday as we see the low back up to the west and start to become absorbed in a large scale southerly air flow. There are some other parameters that will be present on Tuesday that may result in a risk for some severe storm development. I’m not convinced of this, but it is something to watch closely. By Wednesday, the remains of our current low pressure system will come back eastward across the region in the form of a trough, which still results in a shower/storm risk for part of the day, but once it passes introduces slightly drier air. This will set up a very nice summer day for Thursday as high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, some with very heavy downpours. Humid. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated to scattered showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Humid. Highs 73-78 coast, 79-84 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with greatest chance morning, lesser chance afternoon. Gradually lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)
While the ridge in the Atlantic hangs a little further east a couple more disturbances will be able to move through from west to east. This would bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, right now favoring August 17 and 19 for the wetter days. This may change as timing is not certain. Temperatures close to or even slightly below normal but humidity will be higher much of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)
A possible quick shot of cooler/drier air to start the period then warmer/humid weather returns with a couple shower opportunities. Heat may try to build later in the period as high pressure again strengthens off the East Coast and backs westward.

11:31AM

COMMENTARY
We currently have a good example going on of medium range uncertainty in forecasting. Guidance alone pretty much failed to pick up on this small low pressure area impacting the weekend weather when this period of time was beyond several days in the future. The general outlook was one that would probably have you envisioning a more typical August weekend with warmth, humidity, and maybe a few showers/storms. Well, this is not actually all that far off of that, being cooler due to cloud cover and an onshore flow, but with the humidity and some wet weather, just a little more widespread. We started to pick up on this a few days ago, and even then still had to adjust timing and location as initially it looked like the South Coast would be the wettest place today. The lesson here, even though we can see a lot of things in the future, never take a day 5 forecast and expect it to verify exactly. There is a reason why forecasts, including the one on this blog, is updated daily. Predicting the future is not easy. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)
Low pressure will impact the weather for this entire period, but that does not mean 5 days of rain and cool temperatures either. We will witness an evolution in details as low pressure spins to the south of New England this weekend and then backs up to the west early next week, being absorbed by a larger scale southerly flow, then the remains of the low coming back across the region in the form of a trough by the end of the period. What does this all mean for the weather here? Well we’ve already seen some heavy showers in southern areas but the axis of most widespread rain will now shift to one that runs from southeastern NH and northeastern through central MA down through RI & eastern CT, and these areas will be wettest most often through this evening, including some embedded downpours which may result in some road flooding, as well as the chance of a few rumbles of thunder. To the southeast of this, activity will be more isolated, but any downpours that do develop there have the chance to produce a strong wind gust with even some local damage possible. Tonight, that axis will pivot eastward and a more general area of showers/thunderstorms will move back across the entire region before exiting early on Sunday. During Sunday, activity will be much more isolated regionwide, but some breaks of sun can still fuel some pretty serious downpours, so while many areas may get through the day with little or no rainfall, some areas that do see it can pick up quite a bit in a short time. Another surge of energy may increase the coverage of showers/storms on Monday. By Tuesday when our friendly low pressure area has moved back to the west we’ll get into a more tropical-feeling southerly air flow with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, and Wednesday is the day when it all comes back east as a trough with additional showers and storms possible, but probably more then exception than the rule. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, some heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Most numerous shower activity southeastern NH, northeastern through central MA, RI, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH. Slight risk of briefly stronger wind gusts in any isolated downpours/storms in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous showers with probable embedded thunderstorms, some heavy. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light E but briefly strong wind gusts possible in any storms.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s coast, upper 70s to lower 80s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)
While the ridge in the Atlantic hangs a little further east a couple more disturbances will be able to move through from west to east. This would bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but overall this period would not be all that wet. Seasonably warm and somewhat humid weather will be the rule, though August 16 may be briefly less humid.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)
A possible quick shot of cooler/drier air to start the period then warmer/humid weather returns with a couple shower opportunities. Heat may try to build later in the period as high pressure again strengthens off the East Coast and backs westward.

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)
Some adjustments to the forecast today, as the unsettled weather is going to make a quicker arrival than I had been thinking. Enjoy one very bright, warm, and less humid day today, as an easterly air flow takes over this weekend along with some period of wet weather, as low pressure evolves south of New England. This will persist into early next week but as the low finally drifts westward and high pressure off the East Coast strengthens a little bit later in the period the air flow will become more southerly by Tuesday, allowing it to warm slightly. The humidity, which takes a bit of a break today especially away from the South Coast, makes a comeback from the weekend onward, but this time without the heat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm interior areas. Humid. Highs 72-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)
The ridge offshore may not be quite as strong as expected before so this may allow additional disturbances from the west to enhance the shower/thunderstorm risk at times in an overall warm/humid pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)
A quick shot of cooler air is possible early in the period then turning warmer to hotter with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.