Thursday Forecast

65 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)
A little battle goes on today as high pressure drifts southward from Canada across New England while a disturbance moves in from the west. Before this disturbance is obliterated by the high pressure area, it may produce a touch of snow over portions of the region. I am hopeful that enough clearing will take place for the region to see one more excellent pass of the International Space Station this evening. The pass will last 6 minutes, from 4:42PM to 4:48PM, northwest to southeast, passing nearly directly overhead at 4:45PM. Also, it appears timing will be good for the peak of the Geminid Meteor Shower tonight, peaking between 11PM and 3AM during which time one may see up to 60 meteors per hour. This shower is one that can produce fireball meteors with long trails. Meteors are best viewed away from city lights. High pressure shifts offshore Friday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. But another bubble of high pressure will be at the ready and will do battle with the approaching larger low pressure system, which will be stretching out south of the region. It now appears that the bulk of the moisture from this system will be held at bay and pushed mainly south of the region through Saturday after an initial episode of wet weather. The old primary low will still have to pass to the south of the region and this will take place during Sunday, as the high pressure area is losing its ability to push things to the south. This should allow more of the moisture into the region at the same time some colder air is filtering in from the north. It remains to be seen how much precipitation will make it in, but by later Sunday much of the region may be getting wet with at least some light rainfall, however that precipitation may be in the form of sleet and/or snow over interior higher elevations if it is extensive enough – a detail to be worked out. It is still possible that most of this moisture is held south of the region as well. By Monday, the old primary low will re-intensify off the coast with rain/snow showers and a blustery breeze. If things come together quickly enough and the low is close enough I cannot rule out a period of snow – another thing to watch for.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon including a touch of light snow possible in eastern CT, western RI, and central MA. Becoming partly sunny thereafter. Highs 33-39. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-28 except 15-22 interior lower elevations. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 39-45. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Risk of light rain overnight. Lows 35-41. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning, favoring southern areas. Highs 40-46. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain and some higher elevation sleet/snow late-day or night. Temperatures gradually fall into the 30s.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain/snow showers possible. Windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)
A gusty wind and chilly air with a few snow showers possible December 18. More tranquil December 19 as high pressure moves in. Possible rain/snow showers and a slight moderation in temperature mid period before colder air moves back in and another system brings the threat of rain/mix/snow by the very end of the period, although timing is not certain this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)
Rain/mix/snow possible early in the period then colder with a few snow showers at times.

65 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. I called some of my relatives in NC and VA and all are ok. They said that it was record snowfall, nearly a foot. Richmond schools are still closed.

    Rain should wash much of the snow this weekend.

        1. I believe it refers to the end of the civil war in 1865. I was never a fan of history in high school. I basically did the least amount possible to squeak by with maybe a D or if lucky a C. It was just about memorizing dates. Once I got into the real world, I realized it is fascinating. The Civil War era is my favorite followed closely by the Revolutionary War.

          See what happens when you ask a question. And I still don’t know if I’m correct re the song 🙂

          1. It is one of the songs I think of when I remember our many driving trips to visit Mac’s parents in Charleston. I was fairly sure I was right but the night the lights went out in GA came to mind….although, I knew they hadn’t moved Richmond 🙂

  4. A lot has changed in terms of the potential for wintry weather between now and Christmas. We may be able to sneak in a white Christmas after all

    2. It all comes down to tining on that system . May mix but remember we start trending Warmer into the 50s and if that hangs into Monday than predominantly would be rain

      1. Depends upon the intensity. Of course, Highly likely to be rain and never change or mix at the coast. However, that run
        introduces a “possibility” that is all I was saying.

        And it is not going to the 50s here. 40s yes, 50s no.

    1. Can anything be seen of the meteors prior to 11-3 timeframe? I’d love to show my 8 year old son, but 11 pm is way after bed time!

      1. Yes, its just that those are usually the peak times. You should be able to start seeing things well before more like 6ish. You just have to be willing to be out in the cold 🙂 Two summers ago when I was on Nantucket, some of the people at the station and I we decided to sleep outside watching the stars, counting the satellites and the meteor showers. we started seeing stuff well before the time frame that was being talked about for that one.

  9. My sense in looking at the models today ……. is that the big picture features won’t be changing greatly in the next 10 days

    1) Nearly all the arctic air will be in Siberia.

    2) There’ll be low pressure aloft and at the surface just south of Alaska.

    3) There’ll be shots of mild, pacific air coming into western Canada and the US.

    4) some of that Pacific air will make it in pieces all the way to the US East coast, occasionally cut off by cool to cold Canadian Continental air-masses. Nothing that is very cold or frigid.

  13. Looks like there is a touch of SNOW out there. Not sure it is reaching the ground,
    but some of the echos suggest that it is. Vicki, have you looked out the window
    recently?

    Radarscope screen shot in precipitation depiction mode:

    https://imgur.com/a/wVY22UQ

    1. Thanks JJ, but it was Vicki who asked. 😀

      Can you push that pretty snow up this way?

      It’s not far off, but I don’t know if it will make it and if it does, whether or not
      it will reach the ground.

      I can say this: It looks like SNOW out there.

  15. Update on sky sights…

    ISS: Will need luck, and very limited view is possible in areas that have a few breaks or thin spots in the overcast. The plus is that it’s flying directly overhead so knowing the time it will be easy to at least try. Thankfully I got video of last night’s pass, which was lower, but still great. 🙂

    Geminids: I think there should be enough clearing by peak time tonight to allow a decent view.

  16. And as expected, CPC has majorly backed off the extent of their warm forecast with NORMAL temps forecast for both 6-10 and 8-15 as well as the dry theme for the time being. They do go with light shade above normal precip for 8-15 but big wild card here. Can go either way.

    As for this weekend.. The “warm-up” is bringing us back to near normal, not really above. Some areas may have 1 or 2 days where the average temperature is slightly above normal, but for the most part, it’s just back to normal before going below. If anybody gets to the lower 50s it will be places like Fall River & New Bedford on Saturday. By Sunday these areas will be back in the lower 40s and by Monday in the 30s. If any precip falls Monday, odds favor snow showers with those surface temps and colder air aloft as well.

    Also, a couple pieces of Arctic air may be grabbed from Siberia and perform a cross-polar trip to be mixed with the air masses delivered behind progressive troughs. Not a big injection of pure arctic air for now but just little bits, and since Canada is very snowcovered and has been cold the “mild” air from the west will continue to be modified in a colder direction.

  17. Nice mood snow here in CT today! Drove down to Stamford this AM and it was snowing lightly most of the way. Back here in Manchester, it has been snowing lightly but steadily the past few hours and the parking lot, sidewalk and cartops are white. Its actually a bit slick out there on the colder surfaces.

    Also snowing at our Springfield office. This was the view of downtown Springfield taken a short time ago….

    https://i.postimg.cc/tRD7bCQ0/b49f74d9-b1e5-4f1c-9dd9-f4d5994e37d8-578w800h.jpg

  19. Does anyone out there have an internet phone? Specifically with Comcast?
    Thinking of dumping our landline. Verizon is pulling tactics to get us to switch
    to FIOS and their FIOS phone. NOT going to happen. Those creeps actually CUT
    our land line when they were installing FIOS in our neighborhood. It took an act
    of Congress to get it restored.

  20. Nice mood snow here. Too bad we can’t get that to move into eastern parts of MA for the snow fans there to see a touch of snow.

  21. Absolutely fabulous pass of ISS. I got very lucky with a giant hole in the mid level clouds and just a high thin overcast. I saw the station easily from about 30 degrees above the horizon NW to about 30 degrees above the horizon SE, passing nearly directly overhead as mentioned above!

    Pam Gardner made her debut on NBC Boston just a few minutes ago (actually as I was watching the ISS go by). She seemed very much at ease doing a dual weathercast with Pete B. 🙂

        1. No doubt about that. She just struggled on CH 4 with
          her presentation. It’s too bad, but for a TV Met, you not only need to know the material, but you have to know
          how to present it well to the audience. At times she
          struggled mightily with her presentation.

          Hopefully with the new environment, she will overcome that.

          1. If anyone will be great to work with, it will be Pete. Certainly not as a met but related to his weather, I worked with him for about a year and he is as good as it gets. I cannot say enough positive things about the experience

  22. This is totally unrelated to the discussion on PG above as I was going to post it regardless, because it’s something I think is important to share. Some of you may have heard about this, a very sad story out of Detroit today. Unfortunately, it’s not the first time something like this has happened. The broadcast industry is brutal. Absolutely brutal. There are some perks, yes, but it is so hard of a work environment on so many fronts. This is a very sad story, but it is important that people understand these issues exist.

    http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/meteorologist-jessica-starr-passes-away

    1. WxWatcher. I don’t have words to express how sad this makes me. This has become an epidemic in our country and I’m not sure what the solution/answer is. My heart goes out to her family, her friends, her colleagues.

  23. The EPS is showing chances for a white x-mas, which you just need 1 inch of snow on the ground. This is the probabilities that the system I have is showing as of the last run.
    0-5% coastal CT, RI ,south shore cape and islands
    10-25% Southeast mass into northern RI
    Shows around 30-40% for Boston
    shows around 50% interior NE mass down in south central mass down into northern and western CT
    Around 60+ along and north of RT2 in central mass and 60+ for western mass.
    There is less than a 30% chance of 3 inches or more region wide. With this said there are several ensembles that show more than the 1 inch.
    There are chances out there, we just need to see if they actually form.

  25. It is showing accumulating snow for interior parts of MA and CT. Hudson River Valley of NY is the jackpot area on that run.

  27. Still cloud covered but a really peaceful night to sit out. And with the cloud cover, warmer than the 28 degrees makes you think

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