4:00AM

UPCOMING BLOG POSTS
As many of you know, this year will mark the 40th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. But that was not the only remarkable event of that dynamic winter. The weather pattern leading up to it was very active and, to a 10 year old, quite memorable. A little later this month I will create a special blog post with a look back through my 10 year old eyes at the month of January 1978, as it just so happened that I began my weather diary on January 1 of that year. Of course I will make a similar post about the big storm itself as we get closer to its anniversary in early February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)
The weather pattern during the next 5-days will also be fairly dynamic and active and it will start with a very mild day today, in stark contrast to recent extreme cold. We’ll be in an area of warmth between offshore high pressure and a sharp cold front approaching from the west. My concern in the last few days included the threat of significant icing as this cold air arrived during Saturday, and the arrival of that cold will be rather sudden when it does occur with the passage of that cold front. However, the latest information suggest that the wave of low pressure that I thought would form a little sooner and pass south of New England will form near New York City Saturday morning just as the front is slicing across the region. The timing of the front is just slow enough and the low’s development just so that it will pull most of the meaningful precipitation out of a good portion of southern New England just before the coldest air pours in, but there should be spotty precipitation around so that what rain is falling will become freezing rain then sleet from northwest to southeast from late morning to early afternoon. Beyond this, only some low level moisture will be left behind and that will be good for only a little freezing or frozen drizzle and spotty very light snow heading from later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. For the Patriots home playoff game, expect temperatures falling from the 20s to the upper 10s during the course of the game with tailgaters experiencing no more than a touch of frozen drizzle drops or light snow grains. The greater danger will be from puddles and standing water and any remaining snow on the ground that will have frozen solid by the end of the day through the night. So be cautions walking or driving on untreated surfaces! The orientation of high pressure should allow just enough drying for partial sun Sunday except clouds will dominate Cape Cod and some bands of light ocean-effect snow may develop. The air flow is expected to bend a little more to become more northeast across coastal NH, eastern MA, and down into RI for some periods of ocean-effect snow, albeit light, during the MLK Jr. Day holiday on Monday. The next disturbance will approach from the west Tuesday with cold air in place and bring the chance of additional snowfall by later in the day, based on current expecting timing.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered rain showers. Highs 48-55 Cape Cod and South Coast, 56-62 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. A period of widespread rain showers, some heavy, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 48-62 evening. Overnight lows 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, gusts as high as 40 MPH interior and 50 MPH coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog early. Another period of widespread rain showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms early to mid morning tapering off to scattered late morning through early afternoon but transitioning to freezing rain showers and sleet showers from northwest to southeast during this. Spotty light freezing drizzle, frozen drizzle, and very light snow grains mid afternoon on. Temperatures 48-55 early then falling rapidly through the 40s and 30s reaching the upper to middle 20s by the end of the day. Wind SW 15-35 MPH and gusty southeastern MA and variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere during the morning, shifting to NW to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from northwest to southeast across the region from late morning on.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with patchy frozen drizzle and very light snow grains. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy with episodic snow showers Cape Cod with minor accumulation possible. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts across Cape Cod.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers coastal NH, eastern MA, and RI. Lows from the lower to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late day or night. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)
Depending on the evolution and movement of low pressure, a snow/mix threat will exist January 17 and possibly into January 18 before drier weather arrives for the middle and end of the period. Temperatures below normal but moderate toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)
Expecting somewhat milder weather overall with a precipitation threat early in the period then fair weather following this.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
2-day warm-up underway, today with lots of clouds but no rain, Friday overcast and turning quite wet but also the warmer of the 2 days. With snow-melt, this brings a road and small stream flood threat, so be aware of that. Cold air comes back in rather quickly from west to east during Saturday, and with additional low pressure having to pass through and lingering moisture behind it, this means rain to ice, and eventually some snow, though not a big deal with the snow. The degree of icing depends on location. There will be more north and west as it is colder there sooner with more rain in the region. Later in the day only light and more spotty precipitation is expected but by then it should be cold enough to start any rain to the south and east freezing on surfaces and for any standing water to start freezing over as well, especially by night, when we will see lingering precipitation in the form of snow as the cold air has moved in sufficiently at all levels for this. By then it will be very light so no real accumulation of snow is expected. A weak high pressure area should partially clear it out for Sunday although it will be a cold day. Clouds may re-take the sky by MLK Jr Day on Monday due to a northeast air flow and cannot rule out some light snow that day.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Highs 47-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Frequent rain showers, heavy at times. Local flooding likely. Temperatures steady 47-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periodic to frequent rain transitioning to freezing rain from northwest to southeast as precipitation tapers off and then by evening areas of light freezing rain/drizzle south and east except just rain Cape Cod, and areas of light sleet/snow north and west with little accumulation. Temperatures fall through the day reaching 30-35 south and east and 25-30 north and west by evening. Wind shifting to NW and N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
Watch for a storm system bringing mix/snow to the region in the January 16-17 period as a clipper system redeveloping nearby – details to work out. Dry and cold after this.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
Less cold. A dry start and end to the period with some mid-period unsettled weather.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
High pressure controls today’s weather which will be pleasant in comparison to recent harshness. A warm front passes the region tonight and milder air arrives Thursday and Friday, though Friday will turn out wet as tropical moisture arrives from the southwest. An arctic high pressure area bridging across eastern Canada will send a cold front through the region early Saturday as a wave of low pressure approaches and then passes through from the southwest. A colder surface but still warm air aloft means that the rain that falls during Saturday morning and midday will likely result in icing over portions of interior southern New England, though the finer details of this are not yet clear.
TODAY: Sunshine. Highs 34-40. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Brief pre-dawn light rain and freezing rain mainly northwest of Boston. Lows 30-38. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Highs 45-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Morning to midday rain with possible inland ice. Temperatures falling to 30-38.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
Periods of mix/snow possible January 15-16. Dry weather beyond this. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
Milder. Dry weather to start, some unsettled weather possible mid to late period.

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
No real changes. Fair weather dominates into Wednesday then an unsettled weather stretch gets underway, starting quite mild but then we’ll be watching the return of cold air, first at the surface, which may set up an icing situation for at least interior southern and central New England during Saturday.
TODAY: Increasing sun. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 interior valleys, 15-20 coast except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: A pre-dawn period of light rain with some possible light icing interior areas. Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Highs 36-44.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures rise to 42-49.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/ice. Temperatures falling in the 30s, coldest interior areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
Additional unsettled weather with mix/snow possible in the January 14-16 time frame then fair weather later in the period with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Fair and chilly early in the period then some unsettled weather and temperature moderation.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)
A weak storm system will pass north of the region today and drag a cold front through the region from west to east this evening, producing a period of snow (mix/rain closer to coast and southeastern areas). Dry and breezy weather arrives behind it Tuesday, but with just average January cold which will feel mild compared to recent air. High pressure will be overhead Wednesday but warmer air arrives from the west, first aloft, then at the surface, and will result in a period of light rain/ice late Wednesday night and lots of clouds lingering Thursday. A wave of low pressure moving up along a front to the west and north of the region Friday will bring periods of rain but also the mildest air of the week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 28-36. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with a period of snow, accumulating under 1/2 inch, except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Temperatures may rise slightly to 31-39 evening then lows 22-28 overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 interior valleys, 15-20 coast except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: A pre-dawn period of light rain with some possible light icing interior areas. Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Highs 36-44.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures rise to 42-49.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)
Unsettled and turning colder during this period with rain and some ice possible January 13 and can’t even rule out a quicker turn to colder and some snow involved, then watch for additional periods of mix/snow during the January 14-16 period before dry weather returns late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)
Looking at another shot of cold air for the first part of this period then moderation but a quieter overall weather pattern.

11:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)
A pleasantly warm southwesterly air flow will boost temperatures 20 degrees warmer this afternoon than they were this morning in most locations! Sounds like spring right? Wrong! Yes, the wind will be southwest and that 20-degree recovery will get us to the middle to upper teens in most areas. That shows you how low we were to start with, from around 0 to as low as -15 or colder in some spots. Not as cold as the one-day frigid blast of Valentine’s Day 2016, but pretty brutal still by New England standards especially after the last 2 days of arctic cold and strong winds following the powerful storm. So we’ve been through a bit of a harsh stretch here and there is good news if you need a break. It’s arriving. Now don’t expect a warm sunny pattern with melting snow and early blooming flowers. You’d be expecting far too much. But it will be more pleasant feeling outside in the days ahead. That said, it is January, and we will have a January pattern, starting with our dry and still very cold day today. A weak system approaches Monday and is set to bring only light snow/rain to the region Monday evening before moving on its way and leaving us with a dry, breezy, chilly Tuesday. High pressure settles overhead by early Wednesday which will end up with a cold morning but a pleasant afternoon. A warm front will push through the region by early Thursday, propelled by a ridge of high pressure and a west wind surface and aloft, but the “warm” air behind these things is always modified by a snow cover, which we certainly have throughout the region, so don’t find yourself with unreasonable expectations. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 12-18. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 12-18 evening and rising slightly overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 28-36. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with a period of snow, accumulating under 1/2 inch, except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Temperatures may rise slightly to 31-39 evening then lows 22-28 overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Lows 10-20, coldest interior valleys. Highs 33-43.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-33. Highs 36-46.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)
Friday January 12 looks like the mildest day of the week with widespread 40s but probably periods of rain with the region just on the southern side of a front that slips southward and makes Saturday January 13 colder (30s north to lower 40s south) with rain/ice possible with another low pressure wave. Trending colder with potential mix/snow Sunday January 14 and a chance of snow Monday January 15 (MLK Jr. Day). Too early for much detail on the extended unsettled stretch. Clearing possible by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)
Looking at another shot of cold air for the first part of this period then moderation but a quieter overall weather pattern.

3:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
“Arctic Weekend” (might as well make it sound like a movie) is underway. Not much else to say that hasn’t already been said about this post-storm cold outbreak, so do the best you can to hopefully avoid frozen pipes, dead batteries, and frostbite. Moderation is in sight, and will be marked by a bout of unsettled weather later Monday, though it does not look like a big deal as a fast-moving northern system will stay far separated from a more moisturized southern one which stays across the Deep South while the northern one visits this area. Behind this what would be the “colder” air mass will not really feel cold at all in comparison to what we will have endured, and the Tuesday-Wednesday time period will feel rather pleasant, even with a gusty breeze for Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 6-13. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -20, briefly colder at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -12 to -3, least cold immediate coastlines. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill -15 to -30.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 11-18. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix/rain late. Lows 8-15. Highs 28-35.
TUESDAY: Chance of snow/mix/rain early. Clearing. Temperatures steady 28-35 then falling slightly.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-22. coldest interior valleys. Highs 34-42.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Pattern transition will be ongoing and this may be marked by a more unsettled pattern, first a warm front / cold front combo bringing clouds and light precipitation during the January 11-12 period, then a couple periods of more meaningful precipitation January 13-15. This is a general forecast with no attempt at any details, which will be determined in the days to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
A quieter weather pattern expected with temperatures briefly colder then moderating slightly.

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
As cleanup and recovery continues in the wake of the powerful winter storm, it will be hampered by a blast of pure arctic air through the weekend, resulting in additional blowing and drifting snow where drier snow fell, solid freeze-up of standing water in flooded areas near the coast that did not drain, and dangerous cold with even more severe wind chills. Once it eases up at the start of next week that will be with a warm-up that will bring a chance of snow/mix/rain to the region – details to be worked out but doesn’t look too significant.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early including a few very light snow showers eastern MA and southern NH, then partly to mostly sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 10-17. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill 0 to -10.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Blowing snow at times. Lows -5 to +3. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -20.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 3-10. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill -15 to -25.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -15 to -7. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill -15 to -20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix/rain late. Lows 8-15. Highs 28-35.
TUESDAY: Chance of snow/mix/rain early. Clearing. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Dry weather to start the period then a prolonged period of unsettled weather possible January 12-14. Temperatures variable, but closer to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)
A quieter weather pattern expected with temperatures briefly colder then moderating slightly.

2:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)
Storm day. Deepening low pressure wobbles its way north and northeast off the US East Coast today and passes New England by tonight, resulting in a major winter storm for the region. It is time to make a list of the expectations of this unfolding weather event…
Start time of precipitation: 3AM to 7AM south to north as patchy areas of snow except rain Cape Cod.
Increase in coverage of precipitation: 7AM-9AM entire region under light to moderate snow except rain Cape Cod as far west as a line from near Plymouth MA to near Newport RI.
Peak of precipitation: 9AM-5PM generally moderate widespread snow except rain changing to snow Cape Cod with banding of heavier snow where snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour may take place, and some in-between bands of lighter snowfall or even breaks in snow entirely.
Wind-down of precipitation: Area of snow erodes from west to east 5PM-8PM with a few lingering final bands of moderate snow possible.
End of precipitation: Final patches of snow exit by or before 10PM in eastern areas.
Snowfall accumulation: Generally 8-14 inches much of the region with medium to fluffy consistency of snow, except areas of under 8 inches possible far to the west, a 4-8 inch area of wetter snow from near Plymouth MA to Newport RI eastward to the western part of Cape Cod, and 2-4 inches of wet snow eastern part of Cape Cod through Martha’s Vineyard, and 1-3 inches of wet snow late in the storm on Nantucket. The most likely areas near the top of the snowfall range will be the North Shore of MA, South Shore of MA, and Boston’s immediate southern suburbs, as well as an area in north central MA in the higher elevations.
Maximum wind gusts: Northeast to north winds early in the storm becoming more north to northwest mid to late storm when maximum gusts of 30-45 MPH interior and 45-60 MPH coastal areas, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH possible immediate coastal locations.
Coastal impact: Minor flooding likely along the entire coast with areas of moderate to significant flooding closer to high tide times favoring north-facing shores. Ice shoves are also possible (areas of recently-formed ice being pushed ashore by tide and wind).
Power outages: Isolated to scattered outages possible anywhere, but most likely location is southeastern MA where rain changes to wetter snow and wind gusts are strongest.
Thundersnow: Low risk but possible in heaviest bands of snow during the height of the storm midday to mid afternoon.
Visibility: Blizzard conditions with drastically reduced visibility to white-out conditions from sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater for at least 3 consecutive hours will be likely along the NH Seacoast and eastern MA coastline to the Cape Cod Canal and the South Coast of MA. While Cape Cod itself may see these conditions develop late in the storm it will probably not occur for long enough to be classified as an official blizzard. Some interior locations may approach these conditions but not for long enough periods of time for official blizzard status.
Post-storm: Blowing and drifting snow will continue through Friday long after the storm has ended, and in some cases this can result in reduced visibility in a small area making travel briefly dangerous, or cover the ground with snow making for an area of slippery conditions. Keep an eye out for this if traveling on Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Snow except rain changing to snow far southeastern areas. Snow will be heavy at times in bands. See above for details of snow accumulation and other storm impacts. Highs 22-29 interior, 30-37 coast, mildest Cape Cod, in the morning, with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon. Wind N increasing to 15-30 MPH interior and 25-40 MPH coast with higher gusts (see above for peak expected gusts).
TONIGHT: Snow ending evening. Clearing overnight. Temperatures fall to 15-22. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell and a flash freeze where wetter snow fell.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall to 5-12. Wind NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +5. Wind NW 20-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -10 to -20 at times.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 5-13. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as -10 at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -15 to 0. Highs 10-20.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix/rain late. Temperatures rise into the 20s morning, 30s afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)
Rain/snow/mix followed by clearing January 9. Fair January 10-11. Unsettled weather returns later in the period. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)
Unsettled weather favoring snow/mix early in the period, then generally dry and colder.

4:58PM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
This is an update to the morning post with a few cosmetic changes and minor tweaks to the snowfall and wind forecast. Generally added 1 or 2 inches to the snowfall forecast and 5 MPH to the wind forecast. A major storm will impact the region on Thursday. Significant snow will occur Thursday for much of the region, except starting as rain east of a line from near Plymouth MA to Newport RI including all of Cape Cod before changing to snow during the course of the storm. Based on the current expected track I’m expecting the following…
Snow accumulation: 8-12 inches in a wide swath from eastern CT and western RI to Worcester to Metro West of Boston to southeastern NH but with pockets of 12-16 inches possible favoring interior eastern MA mainly to the southwest of Boston and possibly along the North Shore communities, 4-8 inches of fluffy snow to the west of this area, and 4-8 inches of wetter snow to the east of this area lowering to 2-4 inches Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket as these areas start as rain first.
Visibility: Blizzard conditions are likely especially along the coast from near Boston and its immediate southern suburbs northward to the North Shore of MA and NH Seacoast, extending down through the South Shore and eventually Cape Cod after rain changes to snow – blizzard conditions are defined as very low visibility due to falling and/or blowing snow with winds sustained or frequently gusting to 35 MPH or greater.
Wind: Gusts as high as 45 MPH inland, 55 MPH coast, and 65 MPH or greater Cape Cod (see detailed forecast for more).
Coastal impact: Moderate to significant flooding likely especially at the time of high tide, especially northeast and north facing shores. Also, ice shoves are possible where ice has formed along the shore due to persistent very cold.
Timing of storm: Snow (rain Cape) arrives between 4AM and 7AM from south to north, peaks early to mid afternoon, ends early evening.
After the storm comes a blast of arctic air equal to or more intense than the one just-departed for Friday and Saturday.
Other notes: There could be a few surprises including a track wobble, dry slots, and synoptic bands of heavier snow, so please check the comments below and the Facebook page if you have access to it for updates.
Forecast details…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow developing south to north 4AM through dawn except rain much of southeastern MA and southeastern RI. Temperatures remain stead interior but rise to 30-37 coast with warmest Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming N.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow except rain changing to snow far southeastern areas. Snow will be heavy at times in bands. See above for details of snow accumulation and other storm impacts. Highs 25-37, mildest Cape Cod, in the morning, with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon. Wind N increasing to 15-30 MPH interior and 25-40 MPH coast with higher gusts (see above for peak expected gusts).
THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow ending south to north evening. Clearing overnight. Temperatures fall to 15-22. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell and a flash freeze where wetter snow fell.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall to 5-12. Wind NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 5-15.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -15 to 0. Highs 10-20.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Potential unsettled weather (snow/mix) at the start and end of this period. Fair in between. Temperatures below normal overall but variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
Potential unsettled weather early in the period (favoring snow but possible mix). Variable temperatures remaining below normal overall.

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
A “Scandinavian Heatwave” hits today as the temperatures reach the middle to upper 20s. This will end Boston’s record-tying streak of days below 20 that belongs to this year, and 100 years ago. As we are enjoying are balmy respite, a storm will be brewing down the coast. The track of this storm has presented a forecasting headache for many, but after riding a veritable roller coaster of information and speculation, it comes down to an update in which I’m not going to make a whole lot of changes to the forecast issued on the last blog. Significant snow will occur Thursday for much of the region, though it is not likely to be of epic proportion anywhere, just a solid snowfall, except starting as rain east of a line from near Plymouth MA to Newport RI including all of Cape Cod before changing to snow during the course of the storm. Based on the current expected track I’m expecting the following…
Snow accumulation: 8-12 inches in a wide swath from eastern CT and western RI to Worcester to Metro West of Boston to southeastern NH but with pockets of 12-16 inches possible favoring interior eastern MA mainly to the southwest of Boston and possibly along the North Shore communities, 4-8 inches of fluffy snow to the west of this area, and 4-8 inches of wetter snow to the east of this area lowering to 2-4 inches Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket as these areas start as rain first.
Visibility: Blizzard conditions are likely especially along the coast from near Boston and its immediate southern suburbs northward to the North Shore of MA and NH Seacoast, extending down through the South Shore and eventually Cape Cod after rain changes to snow – blizzard conditions are defined as very low visibility due to falling and/or blowing snow with winds sustained or frequently gusting to 35 MPH or greater.
Wind: Gusts as high as 45 MPH inland, 55 MPH coast, and 65 MPH or greater Cape Cod (see detailed forecast for more).
Coastal impact: Moderate to significant flooding likely especially at the time of high tide, especially northeast and north facing shores. Also, ice shoves are possible where ice has formed along the shore due to persistent very cold.
Timing of storm: Snow (rain Cape) arrives between 4AM and 7AM from south to north, peaks early to mid afternoon, ends early evening.
After the storm comes a blast of arctic air equal to or more intense than the one just-departed for Friday and Saturday.
Other notes: There could be a few surprises including a track wobble, dry slots, and synoptic bands of heavier snow, so please check the comments below and the Facebook page if you have access to it for updates.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind S under 10 MPH becoming variable.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow developing south to north 4AM through dawn except rain much of southeastern MA and southeastern RI. Temperatures remain stead interior but rise to 30-37 coast with warmest Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming N.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow except rain changing to snow far southeastern areas. Snow will be heavy at times in bands. See above for details of snow accumulation and other storm impacts. Highs 25-37, mildest Cape Cod, in the morning, with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon. Wind N increasing to 15-30 MPH interior and 25-40 MPH coast with higher gusts (see above for peak expected gusts).
THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow ending south to north evening. Clearing overnight. Temperatures fall to 15-22. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell and a flash freeze where wetter snow fell.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall to 5-12. Wind NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 5-15.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -15 to 0. Highs 10-20.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Potential unsettled weather (snow/mix) at the start and end of this period. Fair in between. Temperatures below normal overall but variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
Potential unsettled weather early in the period (favoring snow but possible mix). Variable temperatures remaining below normal overall.

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
Arctic cold hangs on today and moderates at midweek, but during this time a very large ocean storm will pass southeast of New England. It’s large enough that even though it may not pass across the “prime region” for a big hit, it will still likely bring significant snowfall. Warm enough air may be blown from over the ocean onto Cape Cod for a change to rain there. Following the storm will be another shot of pure arctic air, perhaps the coldest of the series.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -3 to +8, coldest interior valleys. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow likely except changing to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Minor to moderate coastal flooding and ice shoves possible near high tide times, especially north-facing shorelines. Snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches Boston through South Shore southwestward to most of RI, 3-5 inches in a 25-mile strip either side of this, with a fluffy 1-3 inches to the far west and north and a wetter 1-3 inches Cape Cod before a period of rain. Highs ranging from near 20 far north and west of Boston to near 40 Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with gusts 25-55 MPH, strongest along the coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows -10 to 0. Highs 0-10.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Dry, extreme cold January 7. Chance of snow January 8. Clearing/windy/cold January 9. Fair and cold January 10-11 but not as frigid as recent outbreaks.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Another storm threat during the early to middle portion of this period. Temperatures generally below normal.

7:34AM

Happy New Year to all!

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
Arctic cold that arrived as 2017 wound down remains in place as 2018 begins. It will ease up slightly by midweek and at this time a large and powerful ocean storm will develop to the south of New England. Current indications are that it will track too far east for a direct hit, but may bring a moderate snowfall and a lot of wind to Cape Cod, and a glancing blow to the remainder of southeastern New England. Will continue to watch. A reinforcement of Arctic air arrives at the end of the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows -6 to -1 interior valleys, 0-6 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -3 to +8, coldest interior valleys. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow likely east, slight chance of snow west, ending late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
Risk of snow showers early in the weekend then fair and extremely cold. A risk of snow/mix with moderating temperatures January 8 followed by colder and drier again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
Another storm threat during the middle of this period. Temperatures generally below normal.

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
Arctic cold is reinforced for this final day of 2017 and the first couple days of 2018 as a healthy northerly air flow is in full control. Moderation arrives about January 3, allowing temperatures to be below normal, instead of much below normal. This will all be with dry weather other than the risk of a passing snow shower sometime New Year’s Day with a disturbance crossing the region. Although this threat is several days away, we’ve been watching for the evolution of an ocean storm around next Thursday. At this point I’m expecting 2 main areas of energy, the one offshore with the main storm, and another one coming across the Great Lakes, to not phase up in time to create a big winter storm here, but rather being missed or grazed by an ocean storm. So based on this idea, will carry a chance of snow on the day 5 forecast for Cape Cod but leave the remainder of the region dry for now.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill will below 0 at times.
NEW YEAR’S EVE: Clear. Temperatures fall to 0-10. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often -5 to -15.
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows -8 to +3. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often -10 to -20.
MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 9-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow favoring Cape Cod. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows -3 to +7. Highs 12-22.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Snow or snow shower threats January 6 and 8 otherwise a very cold and mainly dry pattern during this 5-day period. Records may fall.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
Temperatures remain below normal but with at least a period of moderation possible. Winter storm threat may appear later in the 11-15 day period.

9:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
Very short summary, no changes being made. Weak wave of low pressure passes south of the region and tries to throw some snow back into the region as it starts to strengthen through this evening before moving away. It does serve to reinforce the arctic air for the final day of 2017 and first day of 2018. High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday with more dry and cold weather.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow possible mainly from the Boston area to Worcester area southward. Expected snow accumulations from a coating to 1 inch Boston area to Worcester area to the Plymouth MA and Providence RI areas (coatings favored), 1-3 inches closer to the South Coast and 3-6 inches on the islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -5 to 0 interior, 0-5 coast. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below -10 at times.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Sunny day. Clear evening. Daytime highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Evening temperatures fall toward 0 interior and 10 or a little below Boston and coast. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill will below 0 at times.
MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Increasing clouds. Lows -8 to +3. Highs 10-20.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
3 potential snow threats, January 4, 6, and 8. Favoring the middle one at this point for the largest impact (don’t read this as a major storm forecast at this point). Temperatures below to much below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Temperatures continue below normal. Next storm threat comes late in the period.