Tuesday Forecast

422 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
Arctic cold hangs on today and moderates at midweek, but during this time a very large ocean storm will pass southeast of New England. It’s large enough that even though it may not pass across the “prime region” for a big hit, it will still likely bring significant snowfall. Warm enough air may be blown from over the ocean onto Cape Cod for a change to rain there. Following the storm will be another shot of pure arctic air, perhaps the coldest of the series.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -3 to +8, coldest interior valleys. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow likely except changing to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Minor to moderate coastal flooding and ice shoves possible near high tide times, especially north-facing shorelines. Snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches Boston through South Shore southwestward to most of RI, 3-5 inches in a 25-mile strip either side of this, with a fluffy 1-3 inches to the far west and north and a wetter 1-3 inches Cape Cod before a period of rain. Highs ranging from near 20 far north and west of Boston to near 40 Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with gusts 25-55 MPH, strongest along the coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows -10 to 0. Highs 0-10.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Dry, extreme cold January 7. Chance of snow January 8. Clearing/windy/cold January 9. Fair and cold January 10-11 but not as frigid as recent outbreaks.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Another storm threat during the early to middle portion of this period. Temperatures generally below normal.

422 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK!

    I very much agree with TK’s numbers at this time. Certainly room to go up in the event the NAM is right, but at this point it’s still a western outlier. Likewise, should the GFS verify, numbers will be lower. Winter storm watch up for some areas from the NWS as well. That watch looks pretty good to me at this point, they’ll make areal adjustments this evening as necessary based on the 12z guidance.

    1. Indeed . I think latest runs will be telling . I have a feeling this is a really big deal from Boston right down throughout the south shore where this could be the jackpot area as well as winds & coastal concern. Than even colder air than now for the weekend.

    1. Outstanding and thank you very much El Stupido, err Dr. Stupid.

      Seriously, nice job. I would say that for once, they are all pretty much
      in agreement.

      Would love to see these as the system gets closer to monitor changes. 😀

      1. Haha it’s His Royal Highness Dr. Stupid Esq. DDS MBA MVP to you.

        And thanks, I’m sure these models are going to shift and change throughout the day so expect an update collage later tonight.

    1. I believe that’s what I said to look out for . Could this one be the big event for the winter ???? Should be interesting seeing maps tonight.

  17. I’m no expert at reading these maps, but man that one looks pretty impressive, and isn’t that right over the benchmark at hour 54….

  19. Question for TK or anyone for that matter. When a storm bombs out like it is predicted to do, is there always a westerly jog or loop that occurs during this process? I seem to remember this happening in years past

      1. I should have been more clear, I’m not referring to the ultimate direction of the storm, but the time frame around when the storm is bombing out. One would think because the flow around the low is counter clockwise this would push the low west before resuming its track after the process is completed.

      1. This is from the 12Z NAM run, which I am sure you know.
        NAM typically is over juiced and sometimes suffers from
        convective feed back. Look at track and intensity of storm.

        Although the totals depicted here may not be likely, they are
        theoretically possible. Take 50% of the totals and we still have
        a MAJOR event on our hands.

        it’s just another piece to the puzzle.

        Waiting for additional guidance.

        IF the EURO comes on board for a significant snow,
        then we have an all out snow blitz. IF not, then anything
        could happen.

        At this point, I could give a rat’s ass about the GFS.

  21. Caution: NAM still shows signs of CF and when it’s a western outlier it’s not often right with this origin. Waiting for confirmation or denial from globals.

  22. Eric Fisher tweet

    Beast. Thursday’s storm is a very potent one. Snow, damaging winds, coastal flooding all on the table. Then more frigid cold to follow it.

    1. That is incredible. IF this were to happen with 50+ mph winds,
      it would be ABSOLUTE and totally TRUE BLIZZARD conditions!

  24. NAM remains extremely impressive; if the globals join it, we’re in business on a biggie, but that remains to be seen, as we have larger than normal divergence between the global and mesoscale guidance. Remember, use the 3km NAM with extreme caution. It will overdeepen the storm.

    For ratios, I figure they’ll probably be decent away from the coast. Better than 10:1 for many. A blend of the 10:1 and Kuchera numbers is likely a good start.

  25. Wasn’t the NAM is western outlier last year when it showed rain for us and global showed more snow? Just throwing it out there. Will see what happens throughout the day.

    1. Looks like it is trending more to the NAM to me, not that it is there.
      Snow totals doubled that of 6Z run.

    2. GFS to me has come west since many of its previous runs. It’s consistently been touting ~1-3″, now 6-7″ on the 12Z run

  30. GFS does not support the NAM position, and the 12z run looked very close to the 6z track. However, its depiction of the west side of the storm was a little more impressive and probably more realistic than prior runs. That may be a pretty good run, though I could see it coming west a touch more.

  32. The GFS was always the dry outlier from the beginning of tracking this potential. Leave it till 48 hours in for it to get something right. Shouldn’t even be considered a medium-long range model

  34. Ryan Hanahran

    The GFS has come west a smidge and if awfully close to a major snowstorm here. May need to blend the GFS/Euro solutions with the NAM/RGEM. I wonder if the latter are handling offshore convection better with subsequent downstream ridging given extreme strength of storm.

  36. Here are the CMC 10:1 snow totals. Way down. It had some kind of Charlie Hole
    over Eastern SNE.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018010212/gem_asnow_neus_18.png

    Here is what I mean:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018010212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018010212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018010212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png

    Never really gets the heavy stuff in here. Somewhat heavier on back end.

    I wonder why it shows Zilch or lighter stuff on the front end? Something doesn’t look right.

    Its counter-part, the RGEM looks much better

    1. When was the last time we saw such a divergence between models and between runs? It’s wild seeing the different updates on here and another forum I follow. I can’t wait to see what the tv people are running by this evening.

      1. Divergence drives me nuts. I expect to see some model-to-model differences, but when they are night and day it is insane!!

        Wish I had more Meteorological training.

        My JP model is saying bigger event rather than smaller.
        We shall see.

        1. The only thing I can figure is that the storm is so strong, (and mature)the models are struggling with the precip. My non educated guess.

  38. It will be interesting to see once we are within range of all the high resolution short range models if the divergence is between the short range and the med-long range models or the models themselves.

  41. I cannot remember we had a 950 mb low off our coast in January.
    Not saying there hasn’t been, but this is incredible!

  43. My only concern is this thing maxes out its potential too early. Most of the rapidly deepening systems that give us a ton of snow don’t get going until off the Delmarva. This will already be a very strong system that has undergone its most rapid intensification before it even gets close to our latitude.

    1. I wouldn’t worry too much about that.

      There will be plenty left. Look at that 3KM precip depiction posted above.
      Perhaps we don’t get as much as we could, but I think there will be plenty
      for a MAJOR snow event here.

      Time will tell.

      I wish the EURO were ready Now.

  46. 12Z UKMET has exactly 25 mm qpf for boston which is
    exactly 0.984252 inch OR something like 8-15 inches depending on exact ratio.

    To me, that is a reasonable snow estimate at the moment.

  47. Dying to see the euro. I know it’s 0z run had about 6” for Boston but I want to see if it follows the trend of the rest of the 12 suite and shifts west. Better sampling now as a major piece of energy is now over land

  48. GREAT discussion from everyone and links as well. Thank you.

    His Royal Highness Dr. Stupid Esq. DDS MBA MVP…..thank you for the maps. I have forwarded to both daughters who are watching for school. One has her youngest home with pneumonia and is hoping for a snow day so she doesn’t miss as much.

    Judging by TK’s forecast and Hi Royal Highness’s snow maps, though, it appears at the moment less in this way so a snow day is questionable here.

    1. Better numbers by this evening I should think. Maybe the wish for a Thursday off will come true. Guess we shall see.

  53. NWS Tweet, they saw the EURO

    Potential increasing for heavy snow/near blizzard conditions eastern MA/RI. Uncertainty remains on how far west heavy snow gets back into the interior. Damaging winds/power outages a big concern on the coast with surge of arctic/dangerously cold air Fri/Sat.

  54. 12z Euro looks fairly similar to the 12z GFS, a little west of prior runs but not to the extent of the NAM. I think we’re gaining confidence for a widespread 6″+ for much of eastern MA and RI, possibly even back towards Worcester. Less on the Cape/Islands. A widespread 10″+ for those areas is certainly possible as well, though we shouldn’t bank on that yet.

  59. There were some sizable changes on that Euro run compared to 0z. It did not translate to a huge increase in QPF this run but I do not think by any means the Euro is done shifting NW.

    1. Agree and qpf will go up.

      I strongly suspect that the 0Z run shows a foot for boston. We shall see.

  62. NAM bufkit numbers BAF 14.8,ORH 17.1, BED 21.0 ,BDL 16.4 ,CON 20.2 ,Bos 23.4, GYX 22.3 ,MPV 9.0

    This from AmericanWx forum.

    That would be nuts when combined with the wind if it verified. We would be dealing with 4-5 foot snow drifts! But I am sure there is a some convective feedback occurring there…

    1. Mark, I had to verify what Bufkit numbers were and found this:

      What is Bufkit?
      BUFKIT is a forecast profile visualization and analysis tool kit developed by the staff at the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Buffalo and the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman, OK. As of January 2001 it is in use in over 75 NWS, Department of Defense, University, and Environment Canada locations. BUFKIT is available to anyone who is interested in the analysis of forecast hourly profiles (Source).
      Profiles are created in a relatively easy fashion. First, point sounding information is extracted from model data. This information is compiled into .bufr files. BUFR (Binary Universal Form for the Representation of Meteorological Data) was created by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Technically it is known as WMO Code Form FM 94-IX Ext. BUFR. It is the result of a committee, which produced the first BUFR documents in 1988. The current revision of the format, Version 2, dates from 1991. Work on the format is ongoing. It is a code in the sense that it defines a protocol for the transmission of quantitative data, one of a number of codes created by the WMO (Source).

      Files identifed by Bufkit are in the format .buf. The program Modsnd can be used to convert the raw .bufr files into .buf format. If you Enjoy programming in Linux, you can download the software and generate Bufkit profiles on your own. I assume this is the method that NWS offices and Universities use to generate their profiles, which are available on the web. An online storage of current and archived bufr files can be found here.

      Once the file is generated or downloaded, it can be open with Bufkit. Bufkit takes the meteorlogical data contained in the .buf file and displays it in graphical format for interpretation. In addition, there are several parameters, including severe weather parameters, computed from the information contained in the .buf file. This allows for data to be analyzed easily and quickly, with high temporal resolution. It’s easy to see how this certainly comes in handy for TV & government forecasters and storm chasers as well, who need to respond to information quickly.

      Updated 31 August 2007

  65. We need to realize wind is going to be a bad situation in this case, especially with the cold that follows.

    1. Yes, unbelievably so.

      Even if we only get 7 or 8 inches, it will still be a BLIZZARD most assuredly.
      I fear we get much much more than that and with that wind, YIKES!

        1. I do not know. I do know that at times it was awesome and at other times, junk. Not unlike the HRRR.

          I believe that is a proprietary model from WSI.

          Rapid Precision Mesoscale (RPM)™ model. CONUS simulations are run centrally at WSI and selected output data is distributed to customers via the internet. … The data can then be accessed by the customer within WSI’s suite of graphics generation systems.

    2. Perhaps closer to 4pm, around the time they usually release their first update of the PM package ………..

  67. I personally think the snow map, at this point, would be better served, less by numbers and more by descriptive words. (IE ….. shovelable, plowable, wind issues, etc) And Id be showing a sharp western edge, with very narrow contours.

    The amounts nearest the coast with potential wind are almost irrelevant. I could never tell you how much it snows in Marshfield during the windiest of storms.

    1. It’s always relevant for sure. true, sometimes nearly impossible to measure, but the more that falls means the more that can drift and cause major issues.

      Personally, I like the numbers, but then I am a numbers kind of guy.

    2. I prefer #’s too because plowable and shovelable, sweepable, and laughable, etc, vary between people. Numbers are numbers.

    2. That’s not true anymore. The upgrades changed that. They are just as good essentially until the event is underway. It also depends on the type of event. We can’t just toss the globals because they are not seeing what the NAM sees.

      3. Agree TK. Globals deserve as much weight as mesos through 12z runs tomorrow.

        Don’t be shocked if the NAM starts to shift east a little.

  69. Thank you, TK.

    Well, I do recall those silly weather maps weather.com and others put out back in October/November that predicted a milder than normal winter in the northeast. It’s one of many reasons I do not take such predictions seriously, even if in some way, shape, or form they are data-driven.

    Thursday’s storm should be interesting. It may be similar to what we experience on Christmas morning except a longer duration event.

    The Atlantic lows continue to batter northwestern Europe with a severe gale (55mph winds, sustained, with much stronger gusts) on tap for the British Isles and Netherlands tomorrow. These storms almost always produce rain rather than snow as the prevailing westerly draws from relatively mild ocean water.

  70. I am sticking with the BASIC (Barbados, Antigua, St Lucia, Inagua, Curacao) MODEL. No snow to be found.

    1. Ok, I thought before that you had said RGEM. My Bad.
      RPM is not RGEM, is it?

      Ok, now you’re cooking.

      Fantasy? OR a possibility.

      Now, more than ever, HOW accurate is/can the RPM be?

    2. BOX has not issued its evening products yet. That WSW will be expanded westward to match their new snow map, which has been updated.

  76. 957mb off the Delmarva at 45 hours vs. 963mb on the 12z run. Even deeper low at about the same position but NW flank of precip. isn’t quite as intense. Perhaps some less convective feedback on this run?

  79. NAM looks just a tic East on this run. Still impressive, but just a little bit
    Farther to the East.

      1. I don’t think Boston could get that much even if it went through the heaviest precip because 1) It’s moving too fast to dump that much QP, 2) the snow would be wetter and there might even be mix or rain involved in the city of the low center tucked in that far.

  82. 18z NAM is about 50 miles further east (32 km) than the 12z run, and based on the snowfall map from the 12 km res it’s anywhere from 1 to 8 inches lower than the 12z run in areas west of the city.

  84. I suspect this has been mentioned but in all of the comments I am not finding it.

    What is the timing for this to begin? Very roughly of course.

    Thank you.

      1. Oh good – thanks. I was afraid it would not get going until the kids get into school and they’d have to come home in a mess.

  87. On another topic that is weather related though.

    Uxbridge had an impressive approach to the cold. The superintended emailed parents and suggested they drive or carpool walkers. He did say if a bus sees kids walking, it will stop to pick them up.

    1. Awesome. Thanks so much. We MUCH appreciate this. This is a very valuable service you are providing.

  91. 18z RPM with a sizable shift east as well, saw it on Twitter but don’t have access to the actual data. I really think the bigger bust potential here is this thing sliding east and mostly missing as opposed to coming more west and crushing us. Will stay with a broad 6-10” forecast east of Worcester for now.

  97. WxWatcher, how much did the RPM snow totals change for the Boston area?
    OR were they similar, but reduced the totals to the West of the City?
    tx.

    1. The latter, similar to what the NAM did. It’s actually pretty much perfect now if you’re looking for snow in our region. But another shift east of the same magnitude would start to dramatically reduce totals for the 95 corridor, and I think that’s the biggest risk in this forecast..

      1. Thank you and what you say makes perfect sense.

        I wonder how much of this is due to the fact that it is
        the 18Z run which is more data sparse? OR due to real
        atmospheric changes??

        I guess we will know on the 0Z runs.

        I find this all to be amazingly fascinating. Here we are
        1 1/2 days from the event, and models do not agree and
        we are hard pressed to know exactly what will happen.
        Suffice to say there will be a monster out there, but it depends
        on that track as to who gets what and where.

        I wish we could be a little more precise. The best forecast
        can still go bust. Oh what a fickle atmosphere it is.

    1. Hmmm, wonder who said that?

      I am thinking it may be, well, it was an 18Z run. 😀
      0Z runs will be really telling.

  100. Ace is very right about not the latest model being the correct run. Multi-cycle trends always the way to go, and with the global models it remains a slow west trend (we’ll see about 18z GFS). I do feel myself slipping into weather geek mode big time with this one though. I haven’t looked at each new model run for a storm in awhile. Not that I’m rooting for an outcome, just that we don’t see storms of this intensity on our seaboard very often. Hardly ever. Kind of a dream storm for meteorologists. Gotta soak it in.

    FWIW, the 18z RGEM was west, and a big hit.

    1. 18z RGEM is way NW and very tucked in! Brings the heavy snows back into CT and Central MA and actually brings the rain/snow line just south of Boston.

    2. All about how it resolves the temporary double-low structure.

      Just don’t “fuji” when I “wara”. Ouch! 😉

  103. NWS Boston thinks a further WESTWARD shift is more likely than EASTWARD….

    “Also another contributing factor could be convection/latent heat release building a stronger downstream ridge yielding a track closer to the coast.

    Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance.”

  104. NWS discussion also mentions the reconnaissance flight planned for tomorrow. 0z runs tomorrow night will get some helpful data from that. Will be very late in the game by then, but will be a confidence booster nonetheless and could hint at what the last minute trends may be.

  105. This is very subtle, but may be significant.

    The 18Z GFS shows a somewhat SLOWER development of the system
    than the 12Z run. This “could” mean more intense precip up this way.
    We shall see.

    1. Further watching the 18Z GFS run, I do believe it is at least 50 miles closer
      to the coast at 36 hours. Oh yeah and a bit more pronounced at 39 hours.

      Looks like the GFS has trended West. We’ll see what it is when it gets
      up this way.

    1. Could be a short week Tom & very long weekend for you . I think tomorrow will be your last day of the week . Have you been to the rink yet.

        1. Harvey keep going up 12-15 + for parts of Boston or south shore. Tk I think 20 is not totally out of the question .

  108. Definite uptic in the snow on the 18Z GFS run.
    Not up to the NAM, but higher than the 12Z run. GFS is coming onboard.

    1. Look how close the R/S line is? Wouldn’t take much of a Westward jog to introduced Mix/Rain into Boston.

  115. FWIW I kind of like the 18z GFS snow map. NWS map is ok but may have too much in the western areas. They make that mistake a lot with these types of storms.

    I will update my #’s in a while.

            1. Yes . Virus just came from doctors said out the next 3 days to rest . Will be weird watching .

        1. I think you channeled Belichick for this one liner TK – beautiful. Now We’re on to Cincinnati.

  117. Pete has 9-12″ however he mentioned that the storm could get so large that (Charlie) holes could develop leaving some in the zone with only 2-4″.

    Is that a remote possibility TK?

  118. On all the various model runs the Thursday storm appears to deepen and intensify to become a very strong low pressure area southeast of Nantucket. This could give Boston a winter wallop and will likely be a major coastal erosion producer. In any case, once again I’m going to mope a little about the October/November predictions I saw on TV. I literally heard several mets say that this winter would not feature major coastal storms with lots of snow. I even think I heard BB say this. To me that borders on nonsensical, given that we have the potential for major coastal storms with lots of snow every year. I think that certain mets get too caught up in long-range model projections. I’d much rather hear a qualified statement such as “it doesn’t appear that this year will feature major snow producers. Instead we’re likely to have several garden variety storms. However, all is of course subject to change. We cannot count on long-range models verifying.”

    1. I think the idea was it’s not the type of winter that is filled with numerous classic gulf wave type storms. La Nina winters tend not to have them, but the classic La Nina signature of ridge Southeast is currently on hold thanks to the large scale pattern overriding it. During such times we can have coastal or ocean storms. This is only kind of a classic. Its origin is further east and south than most.

      This thing is 100 miles further east and we get nothing, then it’s a different ballgame. There are no exacts in this science.

      1. we have learned over the years that there is no such thing as exacts. There is always that exception. Hell we thought at one point things can’t live without light, how wrong we were 🙂

      1. I love that he’s such a spaz. you’d need to shoot him with an elephant gun and wrap a chloroform soaked towel around his face to put him down before and during a storm I’m betting.

  122. I am going to leave the name off this post I picked up from Facebook from a long time friend and fellow meteorologist. Some of you may know who it is and the location may give it away to a few, but with his permission I am sharing it as an example of what we have to deal with, and this is just an example from ONE model…

    This post reads as follows:

    Not saying any of this is right but these are today’s RPM snow totals for the East Bay of RI for Thursday:

    0Z: 4-6″
    3Z: 4-6″
    6Z: 6-8″
    9Z: 10-12″
    12Z: 20-24″
    15Z: 4-6″
    18Z: 16-20″
    21Z: 12-16″

    None of the runs are all that different other than small deviations in track shifting the precip slightly further west/east (and this is just one model). This is why Meteorology isn’t easy. Think about that while you sit back and say how you wish you had my job. It’s more than looking out the window.

    1. I appreciate the thoughts but don’t understand the cycnicism. I suspect many can say that about their jobs.

      No job is easy and the majority of folks get that. Those who do not are not worth the worry. I’m glad you left the name off 🙂

      1. I think his point was a general one. I’ve seen people give him a lot of trouble over fine details before, and I can understand the frustration. We worked together for along time and he’s a tremendous forecaster, right up there with the best of the best in my opinion. He’s never posted on my blog before.

        1. That is what I have said a few times here recently. Why let the complainers set the tone. No matter what you do, they will ALWAYS complain. There is no middle ground with them

          Although I do understand the frustration since we see folks even here find fault. So perhaps I need to rethink my view and hope it is a learning lesson for everyone.

          1. Adding that I’m laughing a bit because you know the next time there is criticism here I’m going to bring this up :))))))

          2. He’s a good guy. Just under a lot of pressure sometimes. He seldom makes such posts but I think his real point today was just to show how much variation was coming from one model. His job is to forecast snowfall, temperature, wind, hour by hour for numerous locations, used by local authorities, DPW’s, contractors, etc. .. He does this on a rotating shift basis. I could never do it. Mainly for health reasons.

            1. Funny thing is I have seen (on more than one occasion) someone post on his FB wall things like “Man, I wish I had your job. Be wrong and still get paid.” That one gets OLD really fast. 😛

              1. I see folks make that comment all of the time and it irritates me to no end. I think he needs to understand it isn’t the majority. At least I hope he is reading here and does. I also think it is a lesson for us all….because we know there are Mets that read here and out of everyone they need to know how much we appreciate them.

  123. 18z GFS ensemble mean is WEST of the operational and wetter. Looks like it is almost to the benchmark. 4th straight run of the GEFS with a shift further to the NW. Me thinks the 0z GFS is going to come in with higher QPF and heavier amounts further west.

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2018_01/5a4c0cc21d7a2.png.df018d98a8daeefdcd39d4129fc0afe5.png

    Boston gets 1-1.25″ QPF on the 18z GEFS – a foot or more easily.

    Latest runs of the HRDPS and RPM have shifted west again – RPM brings the heavy snows back as far west as central CT

    18z HRDPS:
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2018_01/IMG_2092.PNG.e5ca5b2eb6137f59ee47bc4ca91eb71b.PNG

    1. Whoa wait….do you still wax skis? We used to have multiple waxes. I was always proud that I knew which to use when but darned if I could remember now.

      And I am still trying to get you together with my brother.

        1. nothing like doing it and out competing everyone… I could not tell you how many times I out did my competition because they had others do it for them and they came out like crap lol

  125. On a non-weather note, quietly the Bruins are having a good year. I’d say they’re improving while the Celtics are regressing a bit. We are spoiled rotten in this town, with 4 playoff-bound teams almost every year, and 1 perennial contender for the championship. Even if all 4 teams won their respective championships in a given year we Boston fans would find something to complain about.

      1. It is actually a bit farther to the EAST despite claims by
        the NWS that it would shift West. NOT SO.
        However, it still LAMBASTS Eastern MA.

  132. Don’t buy coastal front hanging in there so well. With pressure falls and intensity of storm, feel ageostrophic wind (cold air rushing towards storm center) should push coastal front southeast more quickly than modeled.

    1. Right. But how much is real and how much is CF?
      It is an intense system, so some very heavy precip would seem likely.
      Cut in half, still a big storm.

    2. Do we really think the low is going west of Nova Scotia ?

      ie …. that close to the New England coastline ?

  136. 0z NAM drops over 2″ QPF in eastern SNE. That would be widespread 24″+ totals. Convective feedback? Not happening!

  138. All of this I am too smart for my own good weatherman talk about latent heat transfer from a downstream ridge is actually a total misunderstanding of the NAM and its convective feedback issues. It is the rapid latent heat transfer that causes the NAM’s excessively high quantitative precipitation forecasts.

    2. JMA, what would be more realistic, after all it is a very intense system.

      W0uld you say .5 of this run? .4? I would think .5 would be reasonable???

      thanks

  139. When the NAM processes a low pressure system underneath or parallel to another low, convective feedback often occurs. Look at the NAM. Find 2 lows that are separated by about 200-400 miles. It is the reflection and absorption of that 2nd low that creates a false band that you can verify is not supported by the model’s own thermodynamic parameters and its kinematic equation parameters, yet there is rapid latent heat transfer causing a convective band, which creates an anomalously high quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM changed it kinematic equation in 2012 and it created a lot more feedback issues than the model ever has had in its past. Also there can be a modeled a phantom 3rd pressure drop about 200-400 miles away from the 2nd low and then that creates a false signal for extended precipitation away from the 2nd low pressure and retrogrades the spin of this 3rd area towards the 2nd or now combined low, which leads to the NAM’s infamous reputation for holding onto precipitation too long.

      1. They could and it would just cause other issues. Each time you try to even out one excess it creates another imbalance. Remember you are trying to have computers simulate the never two times exactly the same permutations of the atmosphere within dynamic synoptic conditions.

  140. I have seen the 12km have a bigger problem with over-swelled precipitation then I have the 3km as we get closer. I suspect the 3km NAM will actually have lower snow totals than its 12km sibling.

      1. Well, the 3km NAM totals are higher out my way for sure but the totals in eastern MA are definitely lower than the 12km.

  141. 0Z NAM Kuchera Snow from College of DuPage site.

    https://imgur.com/a/sLRnU

    So far, TK is dead on with the 3KM NAM. Snow totals much lower than the 32KM and 12KM cousins. Perhaps by 1/2. we’ll see when it advances a few more frames. BUT it does NOT keep the heavy stuff in as along as its cousins as well explained by JMA
    and suspected by TK.

      1. Numbers are obviously bogus, but I could see that distribution verifying if the NAM track is right. That area SW of Boston and into northern RI is a frequent jackpot in very large storms, which TK has discussed before. Of course, localized banding will ultimately determine the peak totals. And if the more eastern guidance verifies (still possible), it’ll be more of a SE Mass jackpot.

    2. Agreed, the snowfall rates on the 3km NAM are insane and extend much farther west but the rates do not hold on for nearly as long. Still, sign me up for that as it delivers 1.2″ QPF all the way back to central CT which would likely be good for 18″ for my area.

      1. The model is all over the place. It’s run 3 hours ago delivered 25″ of snow and in the latest run, it went down to 3″.

  144. Nam is showing over 2 feet for parts of interior southeast mass with near 2 feet in the city of Boston. With 70+ 850mb winds. Even with no where near that snowfall, we are talking a Blizzard. I still think its BOGUS that Noaa changed its watch and warning system. I find it to be a whole bunch of CRUD!! PS remember no Blizzard watch will be issued.

  148. 0z GFS ticks a little farther NW. No surprise after seeing the 18z GFS ensemble mean NW of the op. run. That said, snow totals are pretty unremarkable.

      1. Storm gets down to 960mb at its closest passing. Very potent but not as much as some of the other short range models

  149. Not Buying the GFS nor am I buying the NAM. GFS brings in way to much rain into the region and NAM has to much snow falling. Shall see what the other models show. One of the main reasons why the GFS shows so much smaller snowfall amounts is the amount of rain.

    1. scrap that comment lol, more models starting to come in with more rain and less snow overall. 🙁 I had the feeling

  151. At this point in the game I’m going to work on the new blog post and try to post it by 1AM (not waiting for ECMWF) with updated totals. When all is said and done I may not be making major changes to what I posted this morning.

  152. Well, the 0Z GGEM, RGEM, RPM, and GFS collectively do not support the idea of big snows anywhere. NAM is on an island of its own. Based on 0z runs, consensus would probably support 8-12″ across RI northeast to Boston Metro with 4-8″ SE and west of there.

  153. If only all the online news sites followed this blog…they sure could avoid a lot of egg on their face based on all the hype headlines they have posted about this “catastrophic” storm. If I didn’t read this blog, I would think there was a good chance I wouldn’t survive Thursday!

    1. Basically supports the consensus of the other 0z guidance as I posted above.

      That said….I expect we are not done yet with additional model shifts and it will be interesting to see what the short range guidance shows tomorrow. Still a good 24+ hours to go before onset of precip.

      1. Until the wobble is resolved there will still be some adjustments, but I think we’re getting close.

        Harvey’s #’s are too high.

        NWS’s #’s are too high west and their jackpot may be too far west.

  155. Well how about this for a twist. 06z NAM brings 2 feet of snow in western mass and NYC and about a foot in boston. It looks like we r going to mix here in rain. Or maybe a dry slot?
    Tk do you think boston area will get shafted by the dry spot. I know thr NAM is garbage but they indicate a dry slot which is why we have lower accumulations probably

    1. I’ll answer for TK. Not happening! Unless all the other models start making a dramatic shift NW and stronger, you can toss that run. Model is suffering from convective feedback as well….QPF is way too high.

      1. Thanks mark! Maybe we won’t get mixing but I hope we don’t get shafted by a dry slot. This model doesnt make sense. Has a benchmark track snd NYC gets more snow than us. And also shows about 20 inches in the north Carolina cost lol

        1. We will know if the other 6z models start shifting significantly NW as well but I suspect the NAM is completely out to lunch. I hope I am wrong as I would love to see those higher totals expand further west.

  156. 6z NAM is on complete steroids!!

    Track perhaps inside the benchmark with heavy snows back to the Hudson Valley and mixing south and east of Boston as well as eastern Maine. Crushes all of New England outside the Cape with 1-2 feet of snow and blizzard conditions.

    I know….ain’t happening!

  157. Pounding heavy snow now in north Florida, just northwest of Gainesville!

    It appears the SLP may have formed further west closer to the Florida coast than modeled? I wonder if the NAM is picking up on this?

    1. 3km nam and 12 km nam shows a west trend as well. 3k nam has the highest totals over by and less over boston. Only about 7 or 8 inches. I really hope this won’t verify

  158. Blizzard Warnings now up for southern Maine, NH and Maine coasts, North Shore, all of Plymouth County, southern Bristol County, Cape and Island (just MV)

  159. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    worse case scenario may unfold.

    Most all models, save the Euro now introduce RAIN and/or mix to Boston.

    Imagine a few inches of snow, several hours of HEAVY RAIN, then a few more inches of snow, THEN a FKASH FREEZE!!! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    ^&$^$%$%$%^$%^$%^#$#$$^%*&%^(*%*&$^%#$#&$*^&^%%^$%^#$#^^%^^$%$%$^%^%&(^%^%(&(&^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^%^&%&^%^%^^%^%^%%%

    I sincerely HOPE this is just a stupid 6Z run.

    waiting on 12Z to see if this really tight track holds.

    2. NAM now shows 4.5 inches for Boston kuchera snow for Boston with an
      extremely TIGH gradient east to West with jackpot in the berks. Skiers GOLD.
      and absolute Bononza for the ski areas.

      https://imgur.com/a/L72bz

      Then we have the gruesome GFS dumping a whopping 4.3 inches on Boston
      and NO skiers gold. This precip does not match intensity of the low.

      https://imgur.com/a/ktpsN

      The euro on the other hand dumps a foot on Boston

      https://imgur.com/a/g95LY

      I vote for the Euro

      1. That has not been decided. there is some model discrepancy.
        It would seem the NAM wants to rain on our parade, but not necessarily others as I over reacted as per usual.

        Weather does that to me. 😀

  162. The wind is going to be another story with this storm and hopefully not too many power outages considering the wake of the storm its going be colder than what we experienced this weekend. I saw 6z NAM wants to give me two feet of snow. NOT HAPPENING.
    6z NAM
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2018010306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    6z GFS to me more realistic.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2018010306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

  164. I’m just going on some simple thinking here. Not sure how a sub 970 low passing somwhere near our waters with southern moisture doesn’t produce a foot or more somehere in SNE

  166. Sorry All. I woke up early. 3/4 asleep and
    OVER REACTED. I apologize to all.

    Now for a more realistic approach.

    It would appear Boston could still get all snow, BUT, there is the possibility of
    a rain/mix moving into the city for at least a period of time. Because of this and a more likely mix/rain along the south shore coast, I do believe blizzard warnings “may” be premature.

    Dying to see the 12z runs.

  169. Beast of storm tracking up the coast. Can’t wait to see the satellite imagery on this storm.

  173. I am glad I don’t have to go to a grocery store today. I am sure there going to be quite crowded.

    1. I went last night and the bread aisle was decimated. 😀 😀

      Glad I picked up 2 HUGE bags of salt.

  175. NWS believes the NAM to be a westward outlier, but leave open the door to a continued westward trend. The RAIN could be coming. We shall see.

    Latest trends is to continue to push this system a bit westward as
    well as stronger near the MA coast. 00z models have this system
    undergoing bombogenesis with sub 960 mb low tracking southeast
    of the 40N/70W benchmark and then into the Gulf of ME Thursday
    afternoon/evening. In fact, some EPS members show the low
    falling below 950mb. 00z Guidance is still struggling with its
    Mass fields as there is a lot of convective feedback/latent heat
    issues. Hopefully with the development of the cyclone down in
    south Florida over the next few hours, models will begin to have
    a better handle on this system. Current thinking is with the
    placement of the lows and current shortwaves, the westward trend
    in the system can still continue over the next 24 hours. The
    06z NAM is one example and currently believe it to be an
    outlier. However, it could show the trend that models will push
    the system west. So we will need to continue to evaluate this
    storm over the next 12-24 hours.

  176. 850 mb temps at hr 48 on euro op run, I believe, hint at strong dynamics cooling the column to the west of the low center,

    Past experience also says coastal front will collapse southeastward quicker than models show, seen in these intense systems with the current projected track.

    1. TOM, yes. Let us hope that happens. We shall see.

      Even if it does that, does not preclude a period of rain/mix. Imagine that
      with a freeze afterwards.

  177. Time to make the donuts and it is meeting day. I should be able to peek in after 12z nam, but then not till about 2pm.

    KEEP IT EAST!!!!!

    2. I’d be surprised (unless you live in Chatham).

      Yes, front end along the immediate coastline could be very wet snow, or a rain/snow mix ….. but ….. I would think a sudden wind shift to the north, with a temp drop into the mid-upper 20s and a few to a handful of hours of moderate to heavy snow will happen at the immediate coastline midday into the afternoon Thursday. On the outer Cape, this will occur for a shorter period of time and thus, some reduction in accumulation. That’s my theory. 🙂 🙂

      1. Thanks I was just looking quick . I’ll be home for this one as I’m still sick from last storm .

  181. My brother – like me – grew up here. He left for the military 22 years ago and has lived all over. He’s back in the area this year for the first time.

    He said to me “what’s up with the forecasts around here? It snows every year here but every storm is some major doomsday situation. According to the weatherman I won’t live to see Friday and if I am unlucky enough to I am emerging into some apocalyptic world of no food and heat”

    Thought t was amusing.

  182. I don’t believe Boston sees any rain. Line may briefly get close, but not for long. Ratios could be a little lower than previously thought though. May shift the jackpot west a little.

    My morning thinking is 8-14″ for most. Lower amounts southeast of the Providence-Taunton-Plymouth line, 4-8″ decreasing to 1-3″ on the outer Cape/Islands. 4-8″ west of Worcester as well. That’s an increase from yesterday. No denying the west trend. The NAM remains an outlier, but it was an outlier yesterday morning too and now that’s where everything else has trended to. Still, I’m not thinking it comes as far west as the 6z run shows. Multi-faceted threat as well given the wind caused by a closer pass. Would very much advise, especially near the coast, making sure you have provisions for a couple days at least, and removing any loose outdoor items which may become projectiles in 50-70+mph wind gusts.

  183. Weather Wiz –
    It’s all about content that generates “clicks, likes, retweets” etc. If one source “hypes” they all have to or get left out. If one outlet is teasing “snowmageddon” and others aren’t who do you think is going to get paid attention to? Media – especially social media moves so fast that accuracy is almost irrelevant…..

    1. Yeah I know. I know we talk about it a lot on here but it’s funny to get a third party confirmation of it. It’s for reasons like this I hope to wake up to one inch on Friday ha.

  184. Based on the tv mets snow maps, Tom and Sue should get the most! 🙂

    12″+ as opposed to “up to” a foot for the rest of us.

  185. Busy early AM. Can’t chat much now so just head to the new post! I’ll chime in when I can.

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