This is a quick outlook for what I expect heading into and through the Summer of 2013. There will be more discussion and detail upcoming.

MID TO LATE MAY: Signs of a brief shot of very cool air at mid month followed by a preview of summer warmth, then a couple more cool shots toward the end of the month. Rain or shower events will mark temperature changes but the month overall should see near to below normal precipitation.

JUNE: Jet stream wavers but lifts more to the north with mean ridge position Midwest to interior East. Several frontal passages bring episodes of mostly light rain and a few heavier showers/storms, but the month overall should see a below normal rainfall trend and temperatures near to above normal with dryness increasing and building toward drought conditions in some locations.

JULY: Hot and dry with drought increasing. Limited thunderstorm activity. The pattern could favor mainly isolated air mass storms when there is enough moisture, and only a few shots at storm lines when disturbances pass by if a dominant high pressure ridge weakens a few times.

AUGUST: Tropical moisture increases, a very warm and humid month but not as hot as July. Drought should break from tropical rains at some point during the month.

SEPTEMBER: Summer winds down warm and wet then shifts to cooler and drier.

10:10PM

The coming week will not be as  nice as the long stretch of nice weather we’ve just come through. High pressure will hang on to start the week, but as a block in the atmosphere breaks down, and things begin to move along, an upper level low pressure area from the Midwest and interior South will slide to the Middle Atlantic Coast then lift northward through the Northeast by later in the week. This will bring unsettled weather for the middle and end of the week after a nice beginning.

Forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Clear except a few areas of  patchy fog and low clouds. Lows in the middle to upper 30s inland especially valleys to lower 40s coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Low clouds and fog especially southeastern MA burning off during the morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s coast to near 70 well inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog reforming in some South Coast areas. Mostly clear otherwise. Lows 40-50 from inland valleys to urban centers. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High from 60 South Coast to 70-75 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Rain or showers late day and night. Low 48. High 64.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 53. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 55. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 68.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 64.

8:52PM

Blocking patterns are common to Spring and we have been in one, just in the fair weather section, unlike many times during the Spring when southern New England is in the grey, chilly, damp section. The common theme has been dry weather, lots of sun, mild to warm air well inland but cooler to much cooler along the coast.

This block is beginning to break down, but it will take place over several days. Fair weather will hold on for much of the region into if not through Tuesday, with only some low cloudiness at times especially in southeastern MA including Cape Cod. As things begin to move in the atmosphere, an upper level low pressure that has been cranking its way around the middle of the country will move eastward then northeastward up across New England by the middle of the coming week, but it will be weakening as it does so. This will limit the amount of rain that occurs in southern New England, though it does look unsettled for the middle and end of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds may develop and cross southeastern MA otherwise mostly clear. Lows 35-40 inland 40-45 coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Areas of low clouds may continue across southeastern MA especially Cape Cod with sunshine elsewhere. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Some clouds far southeast otherwise clear. Lows around 40 inland to the upper 40s coastal areas. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 50s coast to lower 70s well inland. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, more clouds late. Low 48. High 62 coast, 72 inland.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain & drizzle. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 52. High 60 coast, 67 inland.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 62 coast, 70 inland.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 54. High 65.

7:25AM

High pressure rebuilds to the north of New England today with a northeasterly wind flow keeping it much cooler and also sending areas of low clouds across eastern and southeastern MA and parts of RI today and possibly over Cape Cod and the Islands into Saturday. High pressure settles a bit more to the south allowing it to warm up somewhat during the course of the weekend, but the dry pattern will continue. There may be an interruption to this dry stretch sometime next week, but that will depend on how much moisture can work in as an upper level cut off low tries to lift northward from the Mid Atlantic. Timing for this appears to be late Tuesday through early Thursday of next week, but timing with such systems is always hard to pin down so watch for adjustments and a continued lower than average confidence forecast beyond the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variable amounts of low cloudiness eastern and southeastern MA into RI at times with more sun elsewhere. Highs 50-55 coast to 55-60 inland. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds crossing southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands otherwise mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny with additional low clouds Cape Cod / Islands, sunny elsewhere. Highs ranging from middle 50s immediate coast to middle 60s well inland. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH turning more E near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 50s immediate coast to near 70 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Watch for risk of rain southern and eastern locations by late. Low 51. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain mainly south and east. Low 53. High 65.

THURSDAY:  Variably cloudy. Risk of rain or showers mainly southeast early. Low 55. High 65.

5:35PM

A run of great weather continues, though it will be somewhat interrupted by the passage of a strong back-door cold front late Thursday that may kick off isolated showers over inland areas as it approaches, and will make Friday a much cooler day in all areas, including inland, than the past few have been. Then it’s right back to the great weather for the weekend and probably the very start of next week. Beyond that, some questions arise based on differences in guidance, and some changes to reliable guidance from yesterday to today. So the end of this forecast will be lower confidence. For the next few days the pollen count will remain high and fire danger will be high as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from the upper 30s inland valleys to middle 40s along the coast. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny start. Clouds building in the afternoon especially inland where isolated showers and even a thunderstorm may pop up briefly. Potential for a deck of lower clouds coming off the ocean especially Boston south toward the end of the day. Highs around 70 inland and 60 coast before a sharp drop of 5 to 10 degrees by evening. Wind light variable into the afternoon then east to northeast 10-25 MPH with the passage of the front from northeast to southwest across the region, relaxing a little bit later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, clearing later. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 inland. Wind NE 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 58 coast to 68 inland.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 60 coast to 70 inland.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70 except cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 53. High 66.

11:12PM

For many months I have felt we would be heading into some sort of drought in 2013. I still feel this way. And I believe it is getting underway, or getting re-intensified, since we were already flirting with drought conditions previously. The pattern over the next week or more will lend more and more credibility to the drought forecast, as high pressure continues to dominate the Northeast and keep rain away. Temperature changes will be brought about mainly by positioning of surface features and direction of wind. For example, a true back door cold front will probably make  Friday the coolest day of this week. We also have to watch for some additional cloudiness at times, though most of the clouds from the system to the west will have eroded away due to the building ridge by Tuesday. A deck of low clouds may slide in off the ocean Tuesday night or early Wednesday but with little support and building high pressure, it would not linger. It remains to be seen if additional cloudiness would come in from the ocean on Friday. Anyway, it looks like this pattern will be going nowhere fast. Look for a continuation of high pollen counts and high fire danger.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mid level clouds mainly inland, a few high clouds over southeastern MA and RI, mainly clear elsewhere. Lows in the 40s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60 coast to 70 inland, cooling into the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind S shifting more to the SE around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear start but a deck of low clouds may move in from the east overnight.  Lows in the 40s but around 50 urban areas and immediate coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds burning off by late morning with a 100% sunny afternoon. Highs upper 50s coast to upper 60s inland by midday, cooling in the afternoon. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 45. High 63 coast to 73 inland.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 53 coast to 63 inland.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59 coast to 68 inland.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 62 coast to 72 inland.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 64 coast to 76 inland.

8:15AM ORIGINAL

6:50PM EDIT FOR TIME PERIODS AND SKY CONDITION FOR TONIGHT

High pressure will remain in control through next weekend. There is no rain in sight. Fire danger will increase and pollen counts will be high, but the weather will be fantastic. Somewhat more cloudiness may be in the sky Monday and Tuesday as a storm system to the west runs into the high pressure area parked over the Northeast and falls apart. Coastal areas will be cooler during many of the days because of onshore winds of the cool ocean waters.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle to upper 30s deepest valleys to middle 40s coast. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s but cooling back to the 50s along the coast. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s but again cooling back to the 50s at the coast. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 66, cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 67, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 68, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 67.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

5:34PM

After a disturbance departs this evening, high pressure will set up shop and remain in control for at least a week, resulting in a period of very quiet Spring weather in southern New England. This pattern will feature mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions during the day but there may be a little more cloudiness at some point around early next week, mild air and mostly light winds but coastal sea breezes that will often cool down the shore and up to a few to several miles inland. With drying top soil and still not completely full leaf out of many trees and bushes, fire danger will be on the increase. Use caution if outside with anything that can spark a brush fire.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS EVENING: Variably cloudy with isolated showers. Temperatures around 50. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to around 40. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-67, cooler coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but mostly N to NE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-68, cooler coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny days, mostly clear to partly cloudy nights. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s, highs around 60 coast to as high as 70 inland but cooling back into the 50s especially coast on some afternoons with sea breezes.

1:43AM

As bad as the weather can be in April, it can also be quite good, and we’ll see more of the good side of April during the coming several days. But it will not be without a few bumps in the road, especially early in the journey.

A cold front passing by first thing this morning will bring a rain squall line along with it, which will present itself as a gusty moderate to heavy shower, brief in length. This will clear the coast including Cape Cod by 8AM, so if you are reading this after that time, you’re reading history, not current events. 🙂

For the remainder of today we’ll see an improving trend as clouds depart and sun takes over. It will not be as warm as Wednesday was, but it will still be quite nice – 60s most areas.

A weak upper level low pressure area moving across the region will bring cooler air tonight through early Saturday, but with mostly fair weather. There will be just enough instability to allow for the risk of a few pop up showers with the solar heating on Friday, and some diurnal fair weather clouds on Saturday. But the balance of the weekend will feature fair weather, with Sunday being the warmer day in most areas.

High pressure is expected to control the region’s weather early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures, though coastal locations will see cooler air at times due to sea breezes.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

EARLY MORNING (THROUGH 8AM): Mostly cloudy with a few showers around, and a line of briefly moderate to heavy showers pushing west to east mainly 4AM to 8AM. Temperatures holding 50-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W with a gust around or over 30 MPH during the passage of the line of showers.

MID TO LATE MORNING (8AM-NOON): Clouds linger eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod, sun appears to the west. Temperatures climb toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny except some lingering clouds early to mid afternoon Cape Cod. Highs near 60 Cape Cod, middle 60s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 30s interior valleys to lower 40s urban areas/coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine dominant at the start and end of the day, with pop up clouds in the middle, possibly yielding brief showers. Highs 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 61.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 66.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

2:23AM

After a chilly and damp Tuesday with temperatures barely over 40 in much of southern New England, drizzle and light fog, and some heavier rain over Cape Cod, the weather will pull a quick change today, starting much the way Tuesday ended, but turning much nicer! Low pressure will move away, taking its damp chill with it. Eventually the sky will clear and air will warm (though parts of the coast may struggle to warm up too much) as drier air moves in.

A cold front will cross the region from west to east overnight and early Thursday with a chance of showers. High pressure builds in Thursday, centered first to the south then eventually expanding into the weekend, but it will be fighting a little bit of an upper level low pressure trough around Friday/Saturday which may mean some diurnal cloudiness and even a slight shower threat (mainly Friday). Overall, however, the pattern will be much nicer for the second half of this week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Starting overcast/drizzle/fog/lingering rain Cape Cod, then improving west to east with clearing later morning on. Starting out in the 40s but warming rapidly to mid or late afternoon highs of near 60 immediate coast to near 70 in some inland locations. Wind NE to N 10-15 MPH eventually shifting more to the W.

TONIGHT: Clouds return west to east with areas of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the overnight hours. Lows around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy start with lingering showers ending west to east, then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 48. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 42. High 59.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 63.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 70.

7:11PM

A freezing start to a fantastic finish? That may be how the next 7 days play out, with some changes as we go from beginning to end. These changes will be brought about by these features:

– Frost/freeze early Monday with high pressure, centered to the north, extending down across the region. Frost and freeze advisories are posted for the South Coast of MA and RI for overnight and early Monday.

– Low pressure drifting northward and passing just east of southern New England late Tuesday with raw & cloudy weather and perhaps a little light precipitation (which may even include snowflakes if we should get a period of precipitation with any intensity).

– A cold front approaching Wednesday pushing milder air in ahead of it.

– The cold front having trouble clearing the coast and a possible low pressure wave which may cause some unsettled weather as it starts to cool down again.

– High pressure moving in but upper level low pressure nearby so a little unstable Friday, meaning at least some clouds and not even ruling out isolated showers.

– A weekend that should see mostly fair weather as weak high pressure builds in but should be just strong enough to hold low pressure off. This is subject to change as there have been some indications that low pressure would arrive sooner and Sunday would end up not-so-nice.

But wait there’s more!!!

Tonight! Under a clear sky look for Lyrid meteors, up to 10 per hour away from city lights, especially from midnight to about an hour before sunrise. Bundle up if you go out there. It’s gonna be quite chilly for April!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from upper 20s inland valleys to middle 30s cities and coast. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low 32-37. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possibly mixed with snow at times. Highs 42-47. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start and finish, some sun between. Low 41. High 64.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or showers at times. Low 45. High 54.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 45. High 63.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 62.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

3:41AM

Not a whole lot of action in the days ahead. No big storms, no big warm-ups, no real late-season cold, just a bit of a chill at times. High pressure centered to the north hangs on into Monday then low pressure rides up parallel to the East Coast later Monday and Tuesday, keeping most of its influence offshore. A cold front swings through from the west late Wednesday and Thursday and high pressure builds in behind that late in the week. The corresponding changes will be reflected in the forecast that follows this paragraph.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light snow or rain early. Low 32. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 62.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 61.

11:49PM

Text book style weather changes on the way the next few days. They go this way…

Warm front approaches Thursday so sun will eventually have to yield to some cloudiness.

Warm front passes Thursday night and introduces an early-season tropical air mass on southerly winds.

The southerly flow gets stronger during Friday which will be a mostly cloudy day with a slight chance of passing showers and very mild and rather humid air.

Cold front approaches Friday night with a ribbon of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms approaching from the west but holding off until after midnight for much of the region. It will also be breezy and quite mild all night.

Cold front slowly passes through Saturday morning with rain ribbon slowly moving out from west to east while sliding northeastward. Clearing line approaches from the west and the natural progression of sun-in-sky to westward while clearing line moves eastward means that a day that starts grey and wet will end bright and drier, but also cooler.

High pressure builds in Saturday night & Sunday with dry, cool weather.

Early to middle part of next week will see a slide back toward unsettled weather as an upper trough approaches from the west.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s except lower 40s urban centers and coastline. Wind calm in valleys, light variable elsewhere.

THURSDAY: Sun dominates to start, then becoming limited at times toward the end of the day. Highs 50-55 shoreline, 56-61 elsewhere. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures hold in the 50s. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated passing sprinkles and light showers. Highs 65-70 except upper 50s to lower 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Rain exits west to east followed by clearing. Low 50. High 60.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 35. High 55.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 37. High 53.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 40. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain or showers. Low 44. High 54.

7:41AM

Fast update to forecast. No big changes. Full update this afternoon/evening!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s, upper 50s parts of Cape Cod & Islands. Wind NW 5-15 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30s inland valleys, 40-45 city and coast. Wind light N.

THURSDAY: Sun becoming filtered, dimmed later. Highs around 60 falling back to 50s especially coast. Wind light variable becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers at night. Low 50. High 68.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning. Low 45. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 37. High 54.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 53.

7:21AM

Warmer air moves in today ahead of a cold front, which will bring showers tonight and slightly cooler air Wednesday. A warm front pushes back across the region Thursday with clouds but re-introduces warm air for Friday, before another cold front sluggishly crosses the region late Friday into Saturday with more unsettled weather, before cool and fair weather takes over to end the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s except middle to upper 50s along the South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 60-65. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY:Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 62.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. PM & night showers/t-storms. Low 51. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38.  High 58.