DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

The first of 3 systems in the next 5 days will impact our region today. This one is low pressure passing north of us, with a warm front moving through early today with a batch of rain showers and even a few downpours. In the warm sector for a good part of the day today we see the clouds break enough to allow some areas to see sunshine and with a gusty southwest wind temperatures will climb well above normal. We still have to watch for a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms near the South Coast through midday that can produce locally damaging winds. A cold front will move across the region this evening with a band of rain showers and possible thunder, along with additional gusty and shifting winds. Cold air arrives without delay tonight and sets up a breezy and much colder day Tuesday but with dry weather. The next storm system will impact the region Wednesday, and today we’re bringing the impacts into a little better focus. The low will be passing south of New England, in the right spot with cold air in place to bring snow to much of the region, but probably rain to the South Coast which may end as snow. Right now this fast-moving system should produce a minor snow accumulation (probably under 3 inches), but being the first potential widespread accumulation of the season, it always seems to have more impact than it should – so be ready for that. It’s out of here Wednesday night and we have another fair and chilly day on Thursday before the third system arrives from the west Friday with more clouds and what looks like a minor rain and snow event at this time.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain showers likely. Variably cloudy late morning on with a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast through midday. Highs 63-70. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH becoming SW 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH..

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a passing rain shower and potential downpour with possible thunder and/or small hail west to east. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH and potentially higher in any convective activity, shifting to NW from west to east.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely with accumulation of up to a few inches possible, except rain/mix along the South Coast. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain and snow. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Active pattern continues. Odds favor a low pressure system passing northwest of our area over the weekend of December 11-12 with some rain showers that may end as snow showers as colder air returns to the region after a mild shot of air initially. Another unsettled weather system should arrive before the end of the period but timing and details are not possible.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Hints of a colder trend that may eventually lead to a winter precipitation chance or two. This is a very low confidence outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – December 6 2021

COMMENTARY

It’s not often you get two of these in a row out of me, but I feel compelled to comment again here in the blog post (and not the comments section only) about what I said yesterday, and a couple other things. As we often see, many people (including some media members) nearly skip over a weather situation in the short term (in this case Monday), because it doesn’t have snow involved in it, and jump right to something beyond day 3 (in this case Wednesday, which is currently day 4) because they can use the “s” word. Fine if you want to talk about it, but if you are in media you better have your focus on the event sooner-to-come, especially since it may result in localized damage due to strong wind gusts. I’ve been disappointed by media that should know better already this weekend. I’ve seen an on-air snow map for a system that was 4 days away, with detail, and spoken about as if it was absolute. I’ve seen discussions putting emphasis on tools that just 24 hours before were declared unreliable. No, they don’t have to answer to me. I’m not their authority. I may be a meteorologist myself, but I am also a viewer, and they owe their viewers something a little better in my opinion. There’s a logical method to all of this. But we still have to jump to the exciting thing because it gets people listening, right?! I don’t agree with it, at least the way it’s done in today’s media world. I never have and I ever will. So on I go, my way as usual…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

If you were out and about last evening you may have seen a few flakes of snow or drops of rain. I drove through some of each between Milford and Woburn MA. This was the last gasp of a dissipating clipper system that prompted me to put the insignificant precipitation in last night’s forecast. With that out of the way, we enjoy a dry but somewhat chilly day today, but with a lack of wind out there it won’t really feel all that bad. But we have some changes on the way, so get ready to ride the weather roller coaster once again. The rest of this discussion will be very similar to yesterday’s. Today’s high pressure area will shift offshore tonight and we’ll come under the influence of a strong low pressure system passing to our north Monday. First, its warm front will produce some rain Monday morning (which may start as a brief mix of rain and frozen precipitation over the interior higher elevations in the pre-dawn hours of Monday). Right after that we’ll be in the warm sector of the system with a gusty southwesterly wind and lots of clouds, but a lack of rainfall, with the exception of the South Coast region which may experience some isolated but potentially strong showers and even thunderstorms, a few of which may produce locally damaging winds. The cold front trailing the low passing by to our north will charge across the region from west to east Monday evening, accompanied by rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm, along with gusty and shifting winds, followed by a sharp temperature drop after an unseasonably warm day. Tuesday’s weather will be dry but blustery and up to 25 or 30 degrees colder than Monday – a bit of a shock to the system. We then can turn our attention to the next low pressure system approaching, clearly set to take a track much further south than its predecessor, and with cold enough air in place here we’ll be talking about at least some frozen precipitation (yes, snow) for at least a portion of the region. With the track and strength of the low center still in question, it’s still too early to determine precipitation type and intensity for any specific location, but with it being day 4 at this point, I can say that odds continue to favor a mostly snow event for interior areas such as southwestern NH and central MA, with odds favoring more of a rain event for the South Coast, and some combination of liquid and frozen precipitation in between. I’ll bring this into better focus for tomorrow’s blog post, but for now just be ready for our first fairly widespread winter weather threat. Following that system, expect fair, chilly weather Thursday as low pressure moves away and high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain overnight that may begin briefly as snow and/or sleet interior higher elevations. Lows 30-37 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening, SE 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast mid morning to early afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, frequent gusts 30-40 MPH and occasional gusts above 40 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a passing rain shower and potential downpour with possible thunder and/or small hail west to east. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH and potentially higher in any convective activity, shifting to NW from west to east.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix likely southern NH and interior MA, snow/mix/rain elsewhere with rain favoring the South Coast region. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with precipitation tapering off. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

The active weather pattern continues but model guidance remains unreliable. Watching for a weak low pressure area to bring a minor precipitation threat December 10. Another period of unsettled weather may occur in the December 12-14 window, with odds favoring a milder system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Hints of a colder trend that may eventually lead to another winter precipitation chance or two. This is a very low confidence outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – December 5 2021

COMMENTARY

Reminder for model watchers: Do NOT get hung up on anything you see beyond 3-days in advance. A perfect example, the day 5 forecast between the 00z run for the Canadian, US, and European models all differ enough that a forecast made verbatim from each of them would look like a forecast for 3 different low pressure systems impacting the region. And this applies to everybody regarding their weather app forecasts beyond a couple days. Some of this guidance is already 24 hours off on day-of-impact with things under a week away, and when they have the right day other things are wrong. Do yourself a favor and listen to meteorological discussions that have taken into account glaring model issues in this weather pattern…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

A chilly weekend is in store for us but nothing outrageously cold. The remains of a dissipating clipper low will be moving in today and you’ll notice it in the form of clouds. These clouds have the potential to release a few snowflakes but the air is dry enough that they may never reach ground where they fall. A sliver of high pressure brings fair weather for Sunday. Timing worked out for a generally nice weekend, but we’re still in an active pattern and there will be two low pressure systems to contend with before this 5-day period ends. The first one will be a strong low that I’m confident will be heading east northeastward from the Great Lakes across southeastern Canada on Monday. Its warm front will come through during the early to mid morning when we have our best chance of rain. After that, it’s time for a warm wind from the southwest behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The wind will be quite gusty so if you have outdoor decorations vulnerable to wind you’ll want to secure them before this weekend is over, if you have not done so already. While the region is in the warm sector, the atmosphere will be unstable enough so that we may see a couple of isolated showers and even thunderstorms Monday afternoon favoring the South Coast region. It would be these that would have the best potential to produce damaging wind gusts, even show some rotation. The timing of Monday’s cold front appears to be evening, after sunset, from west to east, and it should produce a band of rain showers, a few of which may be heavy and contain small hail, with even the possibility of a thunderstorm. Gusty, shifting winds will occur with the passage of this front. Following the frontal passage will come a sharp temperature drop and Tuesday, while dry, is going to be up to 30 degrees colder than what we have Monday. Classic La Nina temperature roller coaster pattern. This cold air sets up the potential for frozen precipitation for at least portions of the region for the next low pressure threat, which is Wednesday. Keeping in mind this is day 5, the only thing I can say at this point is this low track will be much further south than Monday’s, passing over or just south of New England, with highest probability of snow/sleet being over interior locations and a higher chance of mix/rain closer to the coast. Fine-tuning of both the low’s track and resultant precipitation type and intensity/accumulation will take place as this event gets closer, and after we improve the focus a little bit for tomorrow’s blog post, it will be Monday’s discussion will contain much more detail on the system. I will tell you that I’ve already seen snow amounts mentioned somewhere in media for this system. I will not say where, but I will say that I highly disagree with such a practice for any system that far in advance and most especially for something occurring in the situation I discussed in my commentary…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a very light snow shower. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH and slight chance of gusts above 40 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a passing rain shower and potential downpour with possible thunder and/or small hail west to east. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH and potentially higher in any convective activity, shifting to NW from west to east.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow likely. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

The active weather pattern continues but model guidance is not reliable. Best guess is that a weak low pressure area brings a minor precipitation threat December 10 and a stronger one tracks north of the region later in the period with a milder surge and a rain chance of some kind.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Mild and active pattern to start with a chance or two of unsettled weather from passing systems through the middle of this period and then the chances of a return to some cold for later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

After a mild day yesterday, a strong cold front moved through last night, producing showers and even some thunderstorms with hail and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in some locations. This has been replaced by blustery and colder conditions, and while today starts with lots of clouds in many areas north of I-90, those clouds will become more scattered as the air dries out and we’ll have a fair amount of sun with passing clouds today, along with a continued gusty wind and chilly air incoming, so temperatures will hold steady and even fall a little during the day. Winds drop off tonight but it’ll be a cold one. No big changes for the weekend outlook – some clouds Saturday along with a slight chance of a few insignificant snowflakes by evening as the remains of a dissipating clipper low pressure system move through, then fair weather on Sunday. After that, we have a more dramatic shift coming up. This type of pattern is notorious for such swings, and this will be exemplified by the low pressure system moving to our north on Monday, dragging a warm front through the region in the early hours of the day, leading to a day that gets well into the 60s, then a strong cold front coming through at night with a line of showers and even possible thunderstorms, then a sharp drop in temperature so that Tuesday will be up to 30 degrees colder, but with dry weather as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Lots of clouds southern NH and northern MA early morning, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 38-45 early morning then slowly falling temperatures. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W diminishing to near 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few light snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Active pattern continues. Watching disturbances around December 8 which may include some frozen precipitation for parts of the region and others around December 10 and 12 during a milder spell – so odds favor rain for those.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Mild pattern continues with a couple opportunities for unsettled weather. May have to watch for the return of some cold air by later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

An active pattern will send two low pressure systems through our region during the next 5 days. The first, today, has a center that passes to the north of the region. Its warm front is coming through this morning with some rain, but that rain has fallen in the form of freezing rain in a few locations in northern Worcester County of MA and far southwestern NH as temperatures were just cold enough there. That situation will improve quickly as the temperature goes up and the region finds itself in the warm sector after warm frontal passage and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will cause some rain showers later today and this evening. A gusty, shifting wind will accompany the cold front. Behind it comes a shot of cold air along with wind for Friday. It will remain cold into Saturday when a weakening clipper system moves in with clouds but only the slight chance of a few snowflakes. A weak area of high pressure is expected to bring dry weather Sunday before the next low pressure area impacts the region Monday with a warm front / cold front combo as the low sails north of us. A couple rounds of wet weather will be in the form of rain as it will be milder.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and patches of fog through mid morning. Breaking clouds with partial sun late morning to mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH early becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Active pattern – probably two disturbances to impact the region around December 8 & 10 with unsettled weather threats. Precipitation type uncertain, but first system may have a better shot at producing some frozen precipitation for parts of the region. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Fast-flowing jet stream but more of a southwesterly flow and a milder trend expected with a couple minor precipitation threats during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

December starts with a continuation of the fast-flowing jet stream pattern and tendency to be on the cooler side of normal as we saw in late November. However, we do have one mild interlude coming, and that will be behind a warm front and ahead of a cold front Thursday. These fronts will bring the threat of a touch of light snow/rain and then rain showers, respectively, as their parent low pressure area passes to our north. Cold/dry air returns Friday with a gusty wind between that system and high pressure to the west. A weak disturbance brings a few more clouds and a chance of a few snow showers Saturday as it passes through while dissipating, and this leads to a fair and chilly day as high pressure builds in from the west Sunday.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow to rain possible late evening / overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, rising toward 40 overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Next low pressure area likely passes north of the region on December 6 producing a period of rain showers with milder air. Fair, colder December 7. Next unsettled weather threat with rain and/or snow possible December 8 depending on track of a follow-up disturbance. Trend is for fair, colder at the of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Fast-flowing jet stream but more of a southwesterly flow and a milder trend expected with a couple minor precipitation threats during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

The model joy ride continues. Who knows what road they will take next? Or maybe this is more like watching a bunch of people who can’t drive racing around a small track. Whatever you want to compare it to, we continue to see little or no agreement between various models beyond just a number of hours, and models that can’t even agree with themselves from run to run. Instead of beating a dead horse further though right now, just onto how I think the weather unfolds in the time before us. Today’s a cold a one. We start bright then sun battles with some increased high and patchy mid level clouds as the remains of a weakening clipper low move in from the west. This system may produce a brief period of very light snow for parts of our region this evening before it moves out. The pattern of quickly moving disturbances, often timed differently and in most cases weaker than modeled a few days out will continue, and the next one will be in the form of a low pressure area passing north of us Thursday. Its warm front will approach later Wednesday with advancing clouds, and we’ll get into a warm sector between the warm front and an approaching cold front Thursday, at which time any precipitation should be in the form of rain, though it doesn’t look like much will take place. The cold front will come through and clear us back out as we turn windy and colder through Friday. The next weakening clipper type system is due Saturday – again not looking like more than just some cloudiness with a few snow showers possible.

TODAY: Uninterrupted sun through mid morning, then variably cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-10 MPH, a few gusts up to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with spotty very light snow evening – no accumulation. Clearing overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light snow possible late evening. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, followed by a slow temperature rise. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

No big changes here. Nearly useless guidance. Knowing the pattern helps. The most likely fair weather times are early and again at end of period. December 6-8 is vulnerable to unsettled weather from a couple passing disturbances, which are probably going to be less potent than shown on current medium range guidance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Again no big changes. Take the DAYS 6-10 section and apply it here with even more emphasis on model variability and “inability” further out in time, magnified by the difficulty they have with a fast-flow pattern in a La Nina. We’ll probably have two disturbances potentially impact the region with precipitation chances as the pattern does look somewhat active, but I don’t see it as a pattern that can produce slower moving and/or powerful storms.

C-19 Chat Post – November 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

I cannot stress enough how important it is, if you are a model-watcher, or watching/reading a forecast that may be largely model-driven, to not pay grand attention to anything beyond day 3, as it should be very general and if there is too much detail apparent, take it with a grain of salt (as much as I don’t really care for that phrase). I’ve noticed some glaring issues with all guidance with the current pattern and will be trying to work out what is more reliable and what isn’t, which in itself carries risk in making a forecast. Long story short: We’ll have a series of mostly weak systems impacting the region in a pattern of near to below normal temperatures (with one day that is warmer – pay attention). So, one system, originally forecast as some guidance to be an important snowstorm, is departing this morning in the form of … clouds … with a few snow and rain showers having fallen in parts of the region in the 24 hours leading up to its departure. A second weakening clipper system will race toward the region Tuesday sending some more clouds in, and maybe brief very light snow in a few locations with no impact. November ends with a chilly couple of days, and December begins with moderating temperatures midweek, slightly on Wednesday, and more noticeably on Thursday as a warm front approaches Wednesday with more clouds moving in, and a cold front then approaches Thursday before pushing through later in the day (based on rough current timing). This system may produce a few rain showers but will be more of a cloud producer than anything else. Dry, colder air is expected for Friday behind that cold front as we should be in a stronger northwesterly air flow at that time, based on best educated guess with this weather pattern.

TODAY: Variably cloudy, then more sun. Brief sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow possible mainly in areas to the south of Boston during the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then more clouds. Brief very light snow possible mainly in areas to the southwest and west of Boston mid to late afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

With significant forecast model uncertainty in play, we’ll continue to watch a pattern of fast-moving systems with eyes on what will likely be a weak one passing by with a minor precipitation threat early in the period, and a weak to moderate system that brings some threat mid to late period. Temperatures overall are expected to average near to below normal. Timing/details of any systems that threaten will fine-tuned when in proper range to do so.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Essentially the same forecast as DAYS 6-10 with even more emphasis on model uncertainty in the medium range. The only take-away we have a little hold on is variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal overall, and at least the good chance of a couple low pressure systems to track with potential impact on the region, the level of which is impossible to determine so far in advance.