C-19 Chat Post – October 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure will dominate the weather for the next few days. First, the initial high pressure system in control is on the weak side and its center a little to our northwest, and some lingering low level moisture in the form of fog patches in lower elevations and a layer of scattered to broken clouds a few thousand feet above the ground will take a little time to dissipate, but as the day goes on a drier northwesterly air flow will help this happen. The high center settles over to just south of the region tonight and Thursday and Thursday will be a day that will feature 100% sunshine and rather mild air. A stronger high pressure center will enter the picture from eastern Canada and a frontal boundary between the initial high and this newer high will pass through the region on Friday with no more than a wind shift to northeast and an increase in wind speed. While Friday will be a mild day, it will start to turn cooler as a northeasterly wind strengthens and transports a Canadian air mass into New England. This sets up a cooler weekend with fair weather but probably some amount of cloud cover arriving Saturday both from ocean moisture at lower levels and some higher level moisture from low pressure to our south. This will continue Sunday but add a weak disturbance trying to come through from the west as the high center shifts to the east and we may add even more clouds with perhaps a few showers. The shower threat is not a certainty at this point, but is something to watch.

TODAY: Fog patches and areas of cloudiness morning. Sunnier midday on. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 44-49, coolest interior low elevations, except 50-55 in urban centers. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches re-forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53, coolest interior valleys. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73 occurring by midday then may turn cooler. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early then N to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Confidence is moderate to high that high pressure will regain control for dry and mild weather early in the period. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south again for possible moisture intrusion and wet weather threat by the middle of the period then a return to fair and mild weather later.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

The overall indications are still for high pressure to control with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures, though toward the end of the period a stronger push from the west may send a front through with a shower chance and introduce some cooler air. Again not a high confidence outlook at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – October 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

While a wave of low pressure moves away today, a weak wind field and abundant low level moisture will keep us cloudy and damp before high pressure from the north dries us out for mid to late week. After a cool day today, it will warm up for midweek before cooling down late in the week as a stronger push of high pressure from the north takes place.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog, patchy drizzle and spotty light rain through midday. Highs 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure shifts to the east October 10 & 11 leaving some room for the possibility of shower activity on October 10 and maybe another shower later October 11 as a front moves through from the west. High pressure is expected to build in after that with dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

The current indications are for high pressure ridging to be the dominant feature with dry weather and temperatures averaging above normal for mid October.

C-19 Chat Post – October 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A rainy Monday starts are week off as low pressure rides along a frontal boundary just south of New England. High pressure in eastern Canada begins a southward push Tuesday with a slow drying process taking place, then the high builds further south and extends over our region with fair and milder weather for midweek, and continued fair but possibly cooler weather by Friday as a cold front may push through from the north at that time.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Steadiest rain during the morning. Occasional rain during the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain diminishing north to south. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-12)

High pressure is expected to shift far enough to the east during the October 9-11 holiday weekend so that some moisture in the form of cloudiness gets into the region from the south and may end up with some wet weather around the middle of the weekend. A front from the west pushes through around the end of the holiday weekend and high pressure from the west builds in with mostly fair weather heading toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

The current indications are for high pressure ridging to be the dominant feature with dry weather and temperatures averaging above normal for mid October.

C-19 Chat Post – October 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Coastal areas will experience rough surf and high rip current risk today as Hurricane Sam passes by far offshore, and then conditions will subside. Today we’ll be fighting off a rain-producing system with a high pressure shield that is weakening, but we’ll get through the daylight hours across the region without the rain – just varying amounts of cloud cover. We’re starting out relatively mild today, or at least not as cool as yesterday morning was, and it will start to warm nicely across the region even further, only to be thwarted in southern NH and northeastern MA by a frontal boundary advancing southward through the region during the day. There may be some ocean-moisture-created low clouds that come in behind this front, so any thin enough areas to allow sunshine through higher clouds later in the day may be of no benefit in some locations due to the lower cloud cover. Eventually, that frontal boundary will continue and complete its southward journey by tonight as low pressure approaches from the west, finally spreading rain across most of the region, first to the north, then southern areas get involved, and a fairly widespread rain shield will be over the region for early Monday, before it thins out and breaks up somewhat, only to have another return by Monday evening into Monday night. As we get to Tuesday, a renewed push of high pressure from eastern Canada will begin a gradual drying process from north to south, and we’ll see the rain end first, and eventually a decrease in cloud cover, but that may take into mid week to fully occur. High pressure should be more atop the region by Thursday which at this time looks like a fair and mild day.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Occasional rain north of I-90 by mid evening with patchy rain to the south. More widespread rain likely overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Steadiest rain in the morning. Occasional rain in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain diminishing north to south. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region for possible northward push, or at least some of its moisture being drawn northward into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Low pressure from the south and west may bring wetter weather for the first part of this period before a drier westerly air flow finally takes over. This continues to be a low to moderate confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

The first weekend of October may not be a stellar early autumn weekend, but for those in the WHW forecast area (southern NH, central and eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI) it won’t really be that bad either. Temperatures which started out with a bit of a chill this morning will rebound nicely today even though sunshine will be limited at times by an abundance of high and mid level cloudiness streaming in from the northwest. There is enough mid level moisture to possibly result in brief rainfall in southern NH and northeastern MA this morning before that area moves out. We’re on the “warm” side of a boundary for now. This is the boundary mentioned in yesterday’s discussion which makes Sunday’s temperature forecast more tricky as it is destined to sink southward, back-door cold front style, during the day. This will leave areas mainly south and west of Boston warmest while areas to the north and east turn noticeably cooler. We also have the wild card of whether or not some lower cloudiness comes in off the ocean in the cooler areas, while we’ll still be dealing with a lot of higher clouds streaming in above. Eventually that higher and mid level cloud cover will thicken and lower and lead to rainfall, but at the moment I think the rainfall will only be patchy by Sunday evening before becoming more widespread overnight into Monday morning, before becoming patchy again. Regardless, a wet start to the week seems likely as a wave of low pressure moves along that frontal boundary. All the while, high pressure will still be centered to the north and will be ready to make a southward push, eventually enough to kick the wet weather out of here. However that may take until later Tuesday to happen, leaving us with dry weather by the middle of next week. Whether we get rid of the clouds by then or not is another matter and one I will figure out as we get closer to it. And I know you’ve been hearing this all week but one more reminder of the increased ocean swells / surf / rip currents (if you have coastal plans) due to Hurricane Sam far offshore.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Brief showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA this morning. Highs 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Occasional rain north of I-90 by mid evening with patchy rain to the south. More widespread rain likely overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Steadiest rain in the morning. Occasional rain in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly in the morning favoring southern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region for possible northward push, or at least some of its moisture being drawn northward into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Low pressure from the south and west may bring wetter weather for the first part of this period before a drier westerly air flow finally takes over. Low to moderate confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

The month of October starts with a fairly nice day as high pressure approaches from the west, but the previously-mentioned “pinch” will be taking place as we have lingering influence from low pressure to the east and an approaching disturbance from the west. The low to the east will try to force this moisture to the southeast but it will run into dry air as it does that, so while cloudiness comes across our sky at times this weekend, I expect the weekend for southeastern New England to be a dry one. If you’re heading north though, you may run into some wet weather at times. The temperature forecast is a little tricky as we get into Sunday as it will depend on the position of a frontal boundary in the region. Finally, the moisture from the west will make it into the region by Monday, which looks like a wet day, and this may hang around into Tuesday before high pressure to the north regains foothold and starts to push the moisture off to the south. How quickly this happens is somewhat uncertain at this time. Also remember if you have plans near the coast this weekend, be aware of increased ocean swells / surf and rip current risk as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly in the morning favoring southern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region, especially toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Battle between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south may be won by low pressure again before this period ends, and then by its end we should get into a drier westerly air flow. Low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This final day of September will be a cool one and an upper level low spinning over the region (center just to the east and north) which is sending a band of showers across the South Coast as the day dawns will also provide the instability for some pop up afternoon / early evening showers later today. This low will slide to the east enough so that we will have dry weather Friday, and then the high pressure area approaching from the west is going to have its top pinched from 2 sides – from the upper low still not that far away in eastern Canada, and the approach of moisture from a new system to the west. This interaction probably means varying amounts of clouds for the weekend, but at this time I expect the dry air to be substantial enough to keep away a rain threat. That probably can’t hold any longer by Monday, which is looking more like a wet day at this time. And once again, if you have plans near the coast this weekend, be aware of increased ocean swells / surf and rip current risk as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers South Coast early. Isolated to scattered showers redeveloping during the afternoon hours. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH through central MA. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53 except 38-45 interior lower elevations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

The beginning of this period may start unsettled before high pressure from the north wins the battle and we turn drier with fairly seasonable temperatures. Still have to keep an eye on low pressure to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure should be more dominant with drier weather in this stretch of time, and we should also start to see a transition to more westerly flow again in the larger scale pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – September 30 2021