C-19 Chat Post – October 20 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Discussion…

First, I must note today that there will be some King Tide coastal flooding from midday to mid afternoon with one of the highest natural tides of the year. Thankfully, this is occurring without a wave-enhancing storm in the area or somewhere in the western Atlantic, or it would have been more extensive. Weatherwise, the next 5 days are pretty simple to summarize. High pressure will be anchored offshore, and we’ll be in a mild air mass across southeastern New England. A frontal boundary sitting off to our northwest will make several failed attempts to get into the region, producing only varying amounts of cloudiness and a couple minor rain shower threats as small and weak waves of low pressure ripple along the boundary, none of them strong enough to battle the high pressure enough to make it give way. This also means we’re back to a weather pattern that grows a drought instead of reducing it, rendering last week’s helpful events less important with no real follow-ups to keep that momentum going.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a passing rain shower late-day. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a rain shower at any time. Lows 51-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a rain shower in the morning. Highs 65-72. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming in low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: More sun than clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: More clouds than sun. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Not too suprisingly, our medium range guidance for this period of time now looks quite a bit different than it did a few days ago, hence my caveats about low confidence forecasts and the need for adjustments and fine-tuning. A good lesson to never take medium and longer range outlooks too seriously and anything more than just a best-guess at the time. That’s forecasting! So making a few adjustments with the idea that the entire pattern evolution takes place more slowly leads me to this current idea… Stronger cold front arrives later October 24 with a rain shower risk. Potential wave of low pressure from the south rides along that front and may bring some wet weather into early October 25 before a push of cool/dry air follows it, then with high pressure to the north we get into a more easterly air flow which then turns more southerly allowing for a bit of a warm-up later in the period before another front approaches from the west with the next chance of unsettled weather. No major rain events likely.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that this period is low confidence because of the adjustments that were needed in the period before it. The pattern going forward reminds me of one we’ve been in a lot. High pressure in control most of the time, below normal rainfall, variable temperatures. Obviously, much fine-tuning will be needed to determine the day-to-day weather as we get closer to the end of October & start of November.

C-19 Chat Post – October 19 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Discussion…

A cold start and a significant temperature recovery today as high pressure crests over the region. The high then slides to the east and opens the door for a more southerly air flow for the following several days, which will include several mostly failed attempts by a frontal boundary to get through the region from the west, so it’s back to a stretch of rain-free weather.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind calm, then SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Stronger cold front approaches, mild air but a chance of rain showers ahead of it October 23. Cooler weather expected October 24-27. Watching low pressure south of the region from later October 24 into October 25-26 that may impact the region with some unsettled weather before drier weather and gusty winds at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

This is a low confidence forecast due to many potential players. Disturbance may bring rain and snow showers early in the period with a cold shot to start, then mainly dry weather with moderating temperatures following that.

C-19 Chat Post – October 18 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Discussion…

Today will be one of those days that looks very different at its conclusion than it does at its beginning. Our second significant rainfall in several days will be coming to a quick end this morning and dry air will return to the region during midday and afternoon, along with a brief shot of wind, bringing in some chilly air. In fact, before the end of the rainfall, some snow has already been mixed in and may continue for a very brief time over highest elevations well northwest of Boston. The wind will drop off quickly tonight as high pressure, centered to the south, noses overhead. This sets up a cold night and beginning to Sunday, but the the high center moving to the east, a milder southwesterly wind flow will take over and the temperature recovery on Sunday will be significant, easily the pick of this weekend. Entering early next week, a mild southerly air flow will be dominant, and a frontal boundary will make 2 failed attempts to get through here as the offshore high pressure system is too strong and the upper level pattern is not set-up in such a way to make it happen.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast with rain (even brief mixed rain/snow higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH), ending quickly by mid to late morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny midday through afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 32-39 except 40-45 urban areas. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A mild southerly air flow will continue October 22 into October 23 before a stronger cold front from the west puts an end to that with a risk of passing rain showers later October 23. A much cooler period October 24-26. Watching for a low pressure area from the south to bring a rain threat as early as late October 24 but more likely October 25 before it clears out at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

There is the potential for a second ocean storm (possibly born in the tropics at first) most likely passing east of the region but serving to bring down some colder air from Canada. A system from the west may bring some precipitation to the region early in the period (October 27-28). Temperature recovery is possible by the end of the period after the initial push of cold.

C-19 Chat Post – October 17 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Discussion…

The second of a one-two rainfall punch this week occurs tonight and early Saturday as a cold front traipsing west to east across the region serves as an avenue for a wave of low pressure which will move swiftly northward along it. Behind this comes a brief shot of chilly air later Saturday as it dries out, but along with some wind as the low organizes while pulling away and high pressure builds toward the region. This high’s center will be close enough by Saturday night and early Sunday to drop the wind off and set up some good radiational cooling, so Sunday morning will be a day that starts cold but ends milder as the high center moves offshore and turns the wind southwest. This milder trend will continue into the start of next week as high pressure will be off the Atlantic Coast with a southerly wind here, and the next cold front approaching from the west will likely run out of gas as there is not much of a push to get it all the way to and beyond the coast.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N from west to east into the I-95 belt by late.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers, some of them heavy. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 35-40 except 40-45 urban areas. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A mild southerly air flow and a minimal chance for any rain showers October 21-22 as a couple frontal systems try and likely fail to make it through the region. A stronger front approaches mid period and may bring rain showers and finally a shot of much cooler air for later in the period. Meanwhile, watch for low pressure to organize south of the region by the October 24-25 weekend. Too early to tell if it will bring any rainfall here.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

There is the potential for a second ocean storm (possibly born in the tropics at first) most likely passing east of the region but serving to bring down some colder air from Canada. A system from the west may bring some precipitation to the region around the middle of the period. Many pieces to the puzzle yet to fit together as we get closer to the home stretch of October.

C-19 Chat Post – October 16 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Discussion…

A strengthening southwesterly air flow will make today warmer than yesterday, but the trade-off will be the gusty wind that develops. This is taking place ahead of a cold front that will amble its way west to east across the region very slowly during Friday. The daylight hours of Friday will see only limited shower activity with the this front. It will be later Friday night and early Saturday when we stand our greatest chance to get a slug of rainfall as a wave of low pressure that forms on the front moves rapidly north northeastward across the region. This will be a lesser version of Tuesday’s event. While the set-up is somewhat similar, the scope is much smaller and the translation of the mechanism to produce the heavier rainfall is much faster. While the rain will be somewhat beneficial again in the short term, keeping fire danger in check, for example, it won’t be of great help in ending the drought, especially since we don’t really have any good follow-up rains in the pipeline. Anyway, once we get rid of that rain on Saturday we’ll have clearing and a brief cool shot, setting up a chilly start to Sunday but a nice finish to the weekend. Looking ahead to the start of next week, Monday looks fairly mild. For now I’m leaning dry but the next frontal system could threaten to bring a chance of showers if it moves toward the region a little more quickly than expected.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Cold front crosses the region with a rain shower risk during October 20. Generally fair and slightly cooler October 21 then milder October 22-23. Keeping an eye out for a potential storm south of the region October 24, but far too early to say with confidence that it will happen and bring any rainfall to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Watch for an ocean storm south of New England during the first part of this period, and potentially another one offshore later in the period as well. Continued low confidence in the occurrence and placement of systems. Temperatures should be trending near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – October 15 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Discussion…

Temporary benefit from rainfall occurred yesterday. It’s greatest benefit was reducing fire danger. A lesser benefit went toward our drought situation, which will take one more rather minor hit later this week but continue its longer term staying power due to a longer-term dry pattern. But in the shorter term, yes we will have another shot at a significant slug of rainfall, although this one looks a little less potent than yesterday’s, and also shorter lived, and will materialize as a wave of low pressure forms and moves across the region from south to north on a cold front moving slowly west to east across the region between late Friday and early Saturday. Before? Two very nice October days with lots of sunshine and mild air. Although Thursday will become quite breezy during the day, especially the afternoon. So if you are looking for the combination of both mild air and not too much wind, this afternoon and Thursday morning are your times. Thursday afternoon will be the warmest but also the windiest time period. After? Once low pressure gets beyond our latitude on Saturday we’ll see a rapid drying trend along with a gusty wind and a quite shot of chilly air. While Sunday starts chilly, we’ll see a nice recovery with dry air and sun.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts near 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patches of ground fog over interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Some early sun then mainly cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east by late in the day. Highs 66-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Fair, mild October 19. Frontal system crosses about October 20 with a risk of rain showers. Fair, cooler then milder again behind this as high pressure dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Watch for an ocean storm south of New England during the first part of this period, and potentially another one offshore later in the period as well. Overall, while this is a low confidence forecast this far in advance, the idea is that the storms will have minimal impact in terms of precipitation, but will be part of a pattern that starts to drag colder air down from Canada for late October.

C-19 Chat Post – October 14 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Discussion…

Delta’s remains, part 2, will interact with an approaching cold front from the west today and produce a decent rainfall across the region. This will not be a drought-busting rainfall by any stretch as now we are at the stage of drought where we need a long-lasting pattern change to more consistent precipitation to do that. This moderate rainfall event will help a little in the short term, but do very little for long term issues. It’s not our only chance in this 5-day period, as at the end of the week another approaching trough and frontal system from the west will bring additional wet weather. With time, however this event looks a little shorter in duration and less beneficial than its initial pattern set-up might indicate. Between these events will come some pleasant October weather with above normal midweek temperatures.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with evening rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Clearing overnight. Areas of ground fog. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon rain showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly during the morning. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Cool/dry/breezy October 18 behind the late week frontal system. Warming up quickly October 19 with additional unsettled weather about October 20. Potential cool-down later in the period with dry weather returning, but this part of the confidence is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

The trend will be to try to bring pushes of colder air in. The most likely chance for unsettled weather is around October 24-25 as it stands this far in advance. We still have to watch for an ocean storm south of New England around the middle of this period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 13 2020