C-19 Chat Post – September 27 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Discussion…

We’ll have a warmer than normal but more humid weekend, however it will remain rain-free. It won’t, however, remain fog-free for a large portion of the region, especially this morning and again later tonight into Sunday morning. This is one of the results of an increase in humidity. With a mostly clear sky above, the warmth from the day radiates out to space and as the air temperature drops to match the dew point temperature, fog forms, and can be rather dense as it is in some places to start the day today. But the same clear sky that played a role in helping the fog form will also play a role in its dissipation, as the sun rises higher into the sky and shines into the foggy areas, warming the air up, and eventually evaporating the fog. A generally sunny midday and afternoon will be the result today over southern NH and a good portion of MA, but there are already some clouds moving into the South Coast region and those will limit sunshine there today. These clouds make some advance tonight and we also see more fog patches forming which will burn off to a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky on Sunday. But even with that, still not really a bad weekend for this area. Things change as we start the new week and go through the last 3 days of September. As previously mentioned, high pressure will have shifted offshore and a larger scale upper level trough will be forming west to New England, gradually moving to the east. A slow-moving cold front will approach and eventually enter the region, finally pulling through during Wednesday. While at days 3, 4, and 5 I still can’t time showery periods and drier periods, I can say that the best highest risk for the most widespread shower activity, based on current timing, looks like Tuesday night to early Wednesday.

Details…

TODAY: Large areas of fog and low clouds to start, burning off by late morning to a mostly sunny sky except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Highs 74-81.Dew point rising to around 60. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Areas of fog early. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point above 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65 Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with showers likely and areas of fog, then partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point starting in 60s then falling to 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Model guidance will struggle with development of additional low pressure near the East Coast. While some guidance has additional rain October 1 other guidance is dry. Varying guidance has varying solutions for the first several days of October. With this in mind, the best bet is to leave this portion of the forecast very general in that we’ll turn somewhat cooler and there may be additional opportunities for unsettled weather, still leaning toward October 2 & 4.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Zonal flow expected but mean trough may hang in the Great Lakes region. This would be a drier trend but not absent of at least brief rainfall threats. Temperatures would be variable but average fairly close to normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 26 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Discussion…

Warm weather will be the rule through the weekend. You’ll notice an increase in humidity during these days as well, though not to oppressive levels, as the wind flow becomes southerly during the weekend. Continuing to keep rain, which we badly need, out of the forecast through the weekend. That will change as we get to the start of next week. As has been previously mentioned, an upper level pattern change will dig a trough into the Midwest and Great Lakes starting at the beginning of next week. This is likely to be a slow process. Initially as this occurs we will remain on the warmer side but there will be higher humidity and a risk of showers as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Timing the greatest chance for showers for Monday and Tuesday is not really anything that can be done yet, so this part will be tweaked as we get closer to it.

Details…

TODAY: Hazy sunshine. Highs 75-82. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear but patchy ground fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point above 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Slow passage of upper level trough with the trough axis likely staying west of the region. This will allow for additional wet weather episodes but also with drier interludes. Timing the individual rain threats is difficult this far in advance but September 30, October 2, and October 4 would be my educated guesses at this point. While I highly doubt this shift in the pattern leads to an ending of the drought, as that will take quite some time, any rainfall we do get will help, and will be a more immediate help in alleviating our high fire danger.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Zonal flow expected but mean trough may hang in the Great Lakes region. This would be a drier trend but not absent of at least brief rainfall threats. Temperatures would be variable but average fairly close to normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 25 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Discussion…

The seas have calmed down, the fire danger remains high, and this round of high altitude smoke has been sporadic and not nearly as thick as the previous one. The feel of summer is back and will continue through the weekend, but will there be any rain between now and then? No. We’ll see high clouds fanning across the sky today from the remains of Beta, the last active tropical system from the Atlantic Basin before the current quieter period. A cold front will arrive Friday, pretty much unnoticed, as it will be falling apart upon arrival. It may result in a few cumulus clouds – that’s about it. The weekend will see a gradual increase in humidity with the source region of our air basically a modified version of the tropical air mass that Beta was born in over the Gulf of Mexico several days ago. By Monday, we finally can talk about a chance of showers as the first of a series of fronts approaches in response to a larger scale trough developing and moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes. It’s too early to know the intensity and coverage of shower activity, and we can fine-tune that outlook as it gets closer.

Details…

TODAY: Sun, high clouds, and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29- OCTOBER 3)

The passage of an upper trough of low pressure will take place during the last couple days of September to the first couple days of October, with our area on the warmer and more humid side to start with, ending up on the cooler and drier side eventually. A few episodes of showery weather are likely during the transition.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Watch for a quick wet weather event to start the period if energy from the west interacts with moisture near the East Coast, otherwise high pressure takes back over with mainly dry and mild weather for the balance of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – September 24 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Discussion…

Today is a transition day out of the cool interlude we’ve had for several days, although we’ll still have a gusty northwesterly breeze in the wake of the extratropical storm that was once Hurricane Teddy. The circulation around that large storm has pulled some of the smoke plume from the western US wildfires, which had drifted into Canada, down across the Northeast, and we’ll see that in the sky in the form of a haze today. What you’ll also notice today is a warmer feel to the air, despite the northwesterly wind, as the source region for this air is warmer than what we had previously. This warming trend will continue through Friday, even when a weakening cold front arrives, so weak in fact that the weekend now looks pretty warm as well. Some models and some media forecasts have indicated a shower threat for the weekend, but I am leaving this out of the forecast at this time as I do not think there will be enough moisture and instability to result in them. Two additional things: 1) The rough surf along the coast will gradually settle down today. 2) The fire danger will continue to run very high today with a combination of very dry ground and a gusty breeze.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Some aloft decreases. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine. Occasional smoke aloft. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 74-81. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28- OCTOBER 2)

An eastward shift in large scale features will bring a broad trough of low pressure eastward into the Northeast and New England during this period. Showers are most likely September 28 and September 30 with the passage of two frontal systems as temperatures that start the period above normal start to cool down in stages. By the first couple days of October, it is expected be much cooler with just a risk of a few instability showers otherwise dry.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Expecting high pressure to be in general control with mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 23 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Discussion…

In the shadow of a hurricane. That’s exactly where we find our eastern locations this early morning as the sunrise was hidden by the cloud deck on the western edge of Hurricane Teddy, passing by us far to the east today on its journey northward toward the Maritime Provinces of Canada. Teddy is starting its transition to a cold core storm, and is already a large storm in size so it will serve to keep a gusty northerly breeze going over us today. Despite the shield of cloudiness, which will start to move out later today, rainfall associated with the storm will be missing us very far to the east… Say goodbye to summer today as the autumnal equinox occurs at 9:30AM. However, the first few full days of fall will have more of a summer feel again, as we get back into a warmer westerly air flow by midweek, and a cold front making a run at the region Friday runs out of gas while ambling its way across the region late Friday, never quite bringing a push of cooler air fully in from the north as I thought may happen previously, so even Saturday looks like a mild day.

Details…

TODAY: High cloudiness will blot out the sun to start the day then eventually give way to more sun later. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27- OCTOBER 1)

Fair, warmer than average weather expected with high pressure to south September 27. A 3-day transition to end September with a few rounds of showers and even a few thunderstorms possible as a trough moves eastward across the region. A drier but cooler than average start to October based on current timing as a cool air mass arrives from Canada with the trough’s passage.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Expecting high pressure to be in general control with mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Discussion…

The final full day of summer will have the same autumn feel the weekend did as we are still immersed in a polar air mass from Canada, which will be around for Tuesday as well, the day of the autumnal equinox, as the extratropical version of Hurricane Teddy passes well east of New England. But extratropical storms have most often expanded from their smaller tropical selves, and we’ll definitely feel that in the form of an increased breeze and some high cloudiness on Tuesday as the storm passes by on its way to Nova Scotia, where a sizeable wind/rain storm will occur Wednesday. No rain for us though, more more breezy weather Wednesday, though with the wind starting to shift more to the west with time, you’ll notice it warming up over the last several days. By Thursday, the feel of summer will be back, comparatively, as the wind will be lighter and from the west. The warmth will last through Friday when a cold front pushes into the region with some clouds, but only the slightest risk of a passing shower. Another thing we will notice is the sky getting a hazier look again this week due to high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. We’ll already have some of it in the sky today that has taken an indirect rough into Canada and is now being pulled southward into the northeastern US. Another surge of it will arrive by the middle of the week from the west, although not to the degree we saw it last week. Reminder: Rough surf continues at the coast through at least Tuesday, but will begin to calm down by midweek as Teddy moves by and finally away. Another reminder: With the persistent dry weather, the fire danger is high.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine and thin high altitude smoke. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

High pressure will control the weather during the September 26-27 weekend but with air on the milder side, just briefly cooler early Saturday. The final 3 days of September bring some risk of unsettled weather as a temporary shift in the pattern puts high pressure offshore and brings a trough toward the region from the west. More detail as this gets closer, but don’t expect a drought-breaking rainfall and a long term pattern shift.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A return to a dry pattern with variable temperatures as October arrives.

C-19 Chat Post – September 21 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Discussion…

We’ve got ourselves a chilly end to summer 2020 with below normal temperatures continuing through Tuesday, the day of the autumnal equinox, after which we will flip to a warmer pattern for a while. Why? Simple. We’ll have a persistent northeasterly to northerly air flow of polar air from Canada until Hurricane Teddy loses tropical characteristics and passes close to eastern Nova Scotia as an ordinary low pressure area, after which the wind will become more westerly here and we will warm up with our air’s source region being a much warmer midwestern US by midweek. Any rain? Not for the next 5 days. Fire danger will be high and drought will worsen. And a reminder that while still powerful Hurricane Teddy is making its way northward, passing east of Bermuda and into the waters far east of New England, it will send large ocean swells and rough surf to our coastline during the next few days.

Details…

TODAY: Passing clouds in some coastal areas otherwise sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point near 30. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Dew point near 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Cold front comes through September 25 but probably with dry weather, then high pressure dominates for the September 26-27 weekend with dry weather, a briefly cooler shot of air, then warming back up again. Currently watching for a temporary pattern shift that would put high pressure offshore, a front west of New England, and open up a channel for some tropical moisture and potential rainfall around September 28-29.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

A return to a dry pattern with variable temperatures as October arrives.

C-19 Chat Post – September 20 2020