Sunday September 20 2020 Forecast (7:10AM)

22 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Discussion…

We’ve got ourselves a chilly end to summer 2020 with below normal temperatures continuing through Tuesday, the day of the autumnal equinox, after which we will flip to a warmer pattern for a while. Why? Simple. We’ll have a persistent northeasterly to northerly air flow of polar air from Canada until Hurricane Teddy loses tropical characteristics and passes close to eastern Nova Scotia as an ordinary low pressure area, after which the wind will become more westerly here and we will warm up with our air’s source region being a much warmer midwestern US by midweek. Any rain? Not for the next 5 days. Fire danger will be high and drought will worsen. And a reminder that while still powerful Hurricane Teddy is making its way northward, passing east of Bermuda and into the waters far east of New England, it will send large ocean swells and rough surf to our coastline during the next few days.

Details…

TODAY: Passing clouds in some coastal areas otherwise sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point near 30. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Dew point near 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Cold front comes through September 25 but probably with dry weather, then high pressure dominates for the September 26-27 weekend with dry weather, a briefly cooler shot of air, then warming back up again. Currently watching for a temporary pattern shift that would put high pressure offshore, a front west of New England, and open up a channel for some tropical moisture and potential rainfall around September 28-29.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

A return to a dry pattern with variable temperatures as October arrives.

22 thoughts on “Sunday September 20 2020 Forecast (7:10AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Boston “could” achieve a record low high of 58F (1960) today. Coincidentally that was the year I was born in as well. 😉

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Got down to 44 here in JP at 6:38 AM. It has already recovered
    to 57 destined for low 60s imho.

  6. Tropical Topics Update!

    Remains of Paulette will be watched as they drift east to south the next few days. Regeneration is possible if the system moves far enough to the south, as it can re-acquire tropical characteristics. This is far from an unprecedented set-up. Every couple to few years, we have to track something very similar.

    Wilfred is going poof as we speak. Gone by late tomorrow over open water. Never was a threat to anybody.

    Beta, while still a flood threat to the TX and possibly LA coast, does not look nearly as threatening as it was being forecast just a couple days ago. Nevertheless, don’t underestimate any flood threat.

    Teddy misses Bermuda for the most part, and recent trends make me wonder if Nova Scotia is going to get off rather easily compared to what it looked like just yesterday. We’ll see.

    Not a lot of gloom & doom in the tropics at this time! And looking for quieter times ahead – not silent, but quieter.

    1. Thanks SClarke. That was a good question from your wife.

      The remaining letters in our alphabet that are not used are Q, X, Y, Z.
      My suggestion is that we come up with names from those letters first before the Greek alphabet are used. Surely there must be a few names that can be used from time to time as the situation allows.

      1. First of all, it;s Q, U, X, Y, and Z that don’t get used.

        They use a 6-year rotation with alternating male and female names. So, to allow for the possibility of retired names, you realistically have to come up with 6 male and 6 female names (3 of each for the initial lists and 3 more in case those get retired). Since there aren’t that many common names that begin with those letters, that’s why they were skipped in the 1st place.

        Even if they did decide to, the earliest they could add those names is 2025. The lists through 2024 are all set. Since they alternate between male and female, adding a “Q” storm messes up the male/female pairing at P/R, and likewise at T/V, so you’d need an entirely new set of lists for the 6-year rotation.

        BTW, since they started naming storms in 1950, this is only the 7th time that the Atlantic has gotten past the P storm where this issue would pop up.

  10. Best I can tell, Logan made 60 today, but that is from the Meso West site, so it is possible due to rounding that Logan’s high
    was 59. My equipment showed a high of 62 here in JP. Norwood
    and Bedford made 62.

    1. I believe so but we do have to keep an eye on the southern Gulf of Mexico for a while. We’re starting to shift toward the time of the season when there is a better chance of stuff originating down there.

  12. 18z GFS operational gives Boston only about 0.25 inch of rainfall for the entire 384 hour period. A few runs before that, it was much wetter. We all know which way to lean. 😉

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