DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Discussion…

A quiet weather pattern with a lack of rainfall is not good news for drought relief, but the timing of it with regard to this 5-day period is great for those with outdoor plans in and around the Labor Day Weekend. The only “weather system” that we will have to deal with is a cold front that comes through between late Monday and early Tuesday, probably with no rainfall. Otherwise its high pressure in control with a summery warm day today, a bit cooler Saturday, and warmer after that, though it may cool off again especially in coastal locations Tuesday with more of an onshore air flow.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure shifts southward, offshore of the Northeast, and increases the warmth and humidity September 9-10 with eventually a risk of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front approaches later September 10. This front should move offshore with a new high pressure area bringing fair and drier weather for September 11 followed by dry but warmer weather for the September 12-13 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

General pattern is likely to feature high pressure aloft along the US East Coast with a westerly flow over New England. This pattern is mainly dry with above normal temperatures for our region.

C-19 Chat Post – September 4 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

Discussion…

I did not give the current weather system passing through the region nearly enough credit. Not that we are getting a couple days of soaking rainfall, but while yesterday ended up being more productive for rain than I thought, today may do the same, so you’ll notice today’s forecast for today looking a little less sunny and a little more showery than yesterday’s forecast for today. Sometimes in the short-range the weather can be “uncooperative”, just as it more regularly does in medium and certainly longer range attempts to uncover its mysteries. But be that what it is, we go on. So now we have high humidity in place and a frontal boundary that drifted eastward into the region with occasional showers during the overnight hours, and will now only drift eastward across the remainder of the region today as a little wave of low pressure forms on it and moves to the northeast. This means that the partly sunny and humid day that I’d been forecasting is now to be a mostly cloudy day with showers a little more likely and also somewhat earlier in the day than I had been expecting. Another, stronger front comes along from the west tonight though to clear the conglomeration out and push everything off to the east. This will open the door for drier air to move in, though Friday will have the feel of mid summer as the air will be quite warm, even feeling a bit hot. High pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley to south of New England then off the coast during the course of the Labor Day Weekend, and even though a cold front will approach the region later on Labor Day itself, at the moment it looks like all three days will be rain-free, starting out a little cooler Saturday (compared to Friday) before we warm right back up again thereafter.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. A few episodes of showers and a risk of thunderstorms. favoring late morning through early afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point falling through 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure centered northeast of New England will bring fair and slightly cooler weather September 8 then the high will shift southward and a southerly air flow will bring warmer and more humid weather in by September 9-10, but September 10 featuring a shower and thunderstorm risk as a cold front moves into the region from the west. High pressure follows this with more fair weather, slightly cooler September 11 and warmer again September 12.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

General pattern is likely to feature high pressure aloft along the US East Coast with a westerly flow over New England. This pattern is mainly dry with above normal temperatures for our region.

C-19 Chat Post – September 3 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Discussion…

Low pressure passes north of New England today through tonight. It parents a warm front which moves through our region today bringing a mainly overcast sky with a period of showers. While not a widespread beneficial rain, it looks as if most areas will see at least a period of showers, and a few of them may even be moderate. This move out later today but introduces higher humidity to the region. What used to be a cold front will pass through the region tonight. Showers and thunderstorms that visit New York State will struggle to survive their trip eastward through our area, but a few may make it in. There is not much of an air mass change behind this. In fact, if anything with more sun and higher humidity Thursday, it’ll feel more like the middle of summer. A more meaningful cold front will cross the region Thursday night, and while support is not likely to be that good for shower and thunderstorm activity, the front will knock the dew point down during Friday, which itself will still be a very warm day, and we’ll be waiting for a “quiet” trough of low pressure to pass by Friday night to knock the temperature back a few notches for the start of the Labor Day Weekend on Saturday as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. This high, unlike any that have been north of us this summer to start with, will slide quickly south of the region and warm it right back up bit a bit more humidity again by Sunday, although both Saturday and Sunday will feature lots of sun.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing later in the day with clouds may break. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower including a slight risk of a thunderstorm west of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast this period. Surface pattern brings a cold front toward the region Labor Day September 7, but any shower activity may hold off until late day or at night. High pressure noses in from the north with fair weather and drier air September 8 before sliding offshore with warmer and more humid weather mid period before another cold front arrives around September 10 with a shower threat and brings drier air for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Continued larger scale pattern of high pressure mostly off the East Coast but surface high pressure following a familiar pattern we’ve seen the last few months. This period likely features below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures. Too soon to know day-to-day weather but would lean toward shower threats around September 13 and 15.

C-19 Chat Post – September 2 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Discussion…

With a warmer and drier than average meteorological summer in the books, we move onto the next meteorological season, the first month of which is still holding astronomical summer days as its majority. Ah well, who said us weather people were not a little bit off balance. Maybe we have to be to do this silly prediction thing every day. 😛 Regardless, there is weather to be prognosticated, so let’s get to it! The high pressure area that brought us comfortable weather to end the month of August has shifted to the east, but its center, like many before it during the summer, is far enough north that we’ll have an easterly to southeasterly air flow for a couple days, keeping temperatures in check, but allowing humidity to creep up a bit. This will also occur with variable to considerable cloud cover at times, but little if any precipitation, another theme we’ve gotten used to as we remain in drought. By midweek, we will find that the high has shifted far enough southeast that we have a warm and humid southwesterly flow by Thursday and a slightly less humid but very warm westerly air flow by Friday. During this time, a couple of cold fronts will push into the region from the west, the first one bringing a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, with slightly drier air behind it, and the second one coming through Friday night probably without any shower threat, but bringing the temperature down somewhat as we reach the first day of the Labor Day Weekend Saturday, and a new bubble of high pressure approaches from the west, this one staying more to the southwest unlike many of its predecessors.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy but some sun as well. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Patchy fog/drizzle. Highs 70-77. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. High pressure at the surface passes south of the region September 6-7 of the Labor Day Weekend with warmer and more humid weather, and a cold front approaching on September 7 may bring a shower or thunderstorm threat. High pressure builds in with dry and slightly cooler weather September 8, then a quick warm up and increased humidity as the high shifts offshore. Another cold front approaches late period with a risk of a shower/t-storm.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances.

C-19 Chat Post – September 1 2020

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

Discussion…

A well-advertised high pressure system sits atop the region at this time and will provide splendid weather for the final day of August and “meteorological summer”, but we know that summer itself is not over here and the weather going forward will prove that point easily before the end of this 5-day period is over. Before that, high pressure shifts offshore but far enough north for an east to southeast wind flow Tuesday into Wednesday, and while a weak upper level trough slides across there will be some cloudiness and the opportunity for a few showers, but no widespread rain. Thursday we will find ourselves in a summery southwesterly flow with higher humidity. A weak cold front moving across the region Thursday night and first thing Friday may bring a shower but the front is likely be a poor precipitation producer, just bringing slightly drier air for Friday, which will still be quite warm.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine, eventually some high clouds too. Highs 70-77. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. High pressure builds in from the west at the surface September 5 with fair and mild weather but cooler than the previous couple days, then shifts offshore with a warm up September 6 before a cold front approaches with a shower and thunderstorm risk September 7 (Labor Day). High pressure builds in with dry weather to end the period but temperatures averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances.

C-19 Chat Post – August 31 2020

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30- SEPTEMBER 3)

Discussion…

High pressure, building toward the region from the west and over the region Monday, brings two very nice days to end the month of August, although today will be on the breezy side. Then high pressure shifts offshore, first far enough north to keep temperature in check during the first couple days of September before it heats up by Thursday. A coule fronts will try to make it into the region as we approach mid week but will have trouble pushing all the way through.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny, but some high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. For us, very warm September 4, a bit cooler September 5 as a front pushes through, then mainly near to above normal temperatures thereafter. Limited shower chances.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances. We’ll have to continue to pay attention for any tropical activity in the western Atlantic.

C-19 Chat Post – August 30 2020

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29- SEPTEMBER 2)

Discussion…

Low pressure tracks eastward passing north of our area today. Its warm front brings fairly widespread wet weather through the region during the morning hours in the form of showers and embedded thunder. The cold front trailing this will pass by this evening with an additional shower and thunderstorm threat, while many areas have at least a few hours of rain-free or minimal shower threat time during the afternoon, during which time the majority of the remnant moisture from Hurricane Laura passes to the south of the region, not adding any beneficial rainfall. You’ll notice a jump in the humidity today, easily the most humid day of this week, before drier air returns behind the departing system during Sunday. High pressure provides very nice weather for August’s final day Monday. September will get underway with a warm front / cold front combo trailing from another low passing north of the region Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure starts to build off the Atlantic Coast.

Details…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with widespread showers and possible thunderstorms as well as areas of fog this morning. Variably cloudy with a passing shower possible this afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to around 70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning becoming SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible during the evening, then clearing. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers by late-day. Highs 70-77,. Dew point 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure offshore will make frontal systems struggle to push through. Greatest chance for showers and possible thunderstorms September 4 & 6. Temperatures above normal but may cool back by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Fair, slightly cooler September 8. Warming up, more humidity, and a few opportunities for showers thereafter. We will be in a pattern that we’ll have to pay attention to any tropical activity in the western Atlantic.

C-19 Chat Post – August 29 2020

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28- SEPTEMBER 1)

Discussion…

Yesterday’s event went as expected – biggest storms southwest of the WHW area, so thankfully this region escaped the severe weather while still receiving some needed rainfall. No rainfall today, but it may start gloomy looking as some low level moisture remains in place, but clouds will break for at least partial sun as the morning goes on and it turns into a pretty nice day overall, under the influence of weak high pressure. Although high clouds will also start to stream in ahead of a warm front, which will be moving through the region tomorrow morning, followed by a cold front late in the day, parented from a jet stream disturbance passing to our north. Moisture from the remains of Laura will be somewhat involved in this, but as I have been indicating, the majority of this will pass south of our region. High pressure approaches from the west Sunday, which will be a breezy day between it and the departing low to the east. High pressure settles right over the region for a wonderful final day of August. September gets underway Tuesday and some cloudiness will advance ahead of a warm front, which may result in showers arriving in the region before day’s end.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind E to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely, favoring the morning hours. Chance of thunderstorms, favoring late-day. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind variable to SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A shower or thunderstorm early, followed by clearing. Patchy fog evening. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers late-day. Highs 70-77,. Dew point 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure builds offshore and remains mostly in place while frontal systems from the west try to push into the region. Much of this period is likely to be rain-free with above normal temperatures. Best shower opportunities early September 2, late September 4, and September 6.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Fair, slightly cooler September 7-8. Warming up, minimal shower threat thereafter.