2:08AM
DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)…
After a whole lot of analysis of data during the last 12 hours leading up to the writing of this blog entry, I’ll be making a few adjustments to the forecast overall but with the general idea still the same – heat today, then a boundary nearby with temperatures depending on location of the boundary, and shower/thunderstorm chances depending on timing of disturbances and locations of boundaries, with a greater-than-usual amount of uncertainty for the remainder of the period. The current thinking is that more of the region than not will be on the cooler side of the boundary Thursday and Friday with a risk of showers/thunderstorms both days, but possibly favoring late Thursday as activity is slow to arrive, and then less of a risk for a while on Friday as activity is pushed further to the southwest. This boundary will likely make an attempt to return as a warm front Friday night into Saturday but it is uncertain how far it will get, with the greatest chance of getting into the warm/humid air the further west and south you are. This would end up being the region with the greatest risk of stronger storms. Again, timing and placement being uncertain, there will still be much fine-tuning to do. By Sunday, though the main cold front from the weekend system should be by, enough instability may remain as the trough is slow to pass at upper levels, and this may allow for some additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. This is a change from the previous forecast. So, with medium to lower confidence, here is the latest forecast update, but check back for updates!
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Humid then slightly drier. Highs from the middle to upper 80s immediate coast, lower to middle 90s otherwise. Wind light W except sea breezes at shoreline locations.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. More humid. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs from the middle to upper 70s eastern coastal areas, upper 70s to middle 80s most other areas except some upper 80s to lower 90s in interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind variable, mainly E to NE up to 10 MPH near eastern coastal areas and mainly SE to S up to 15 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s coast, 80s interior.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)…
Dry weather expected July 11-14, starting out with mild/dry weather then trending toward hot/humid. Showers/thunderstorms become more likely at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)…
Showers/thunderstorms may be around to start the period followed by drier and warm weather. Heat may try to return later in the period.