DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

Two days of heat before a cold front from the north turns the dial down a few notches for Friday and the coming weekend. As previously discussed, the combination of a strong upper level ridge on the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south brings us the end-of-spring / start-of-summer blast furnace. We greet summer officially with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances are pretty small today, with just a few isolated pop-ups possible in the region from central MA’s hills to southern NH late afternoon to early evening, and the chance goes up a little bit on Thursday as we start to feel the effects of an approaching cold front from the north, with the threat that day being of isolated to scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening, favoring areas north of the Route 2 corridor, especially southern NH. A few of these can survive a little further southward at night and into early Friday. Frontal timing looks fairly early on Friday with a regionwide shift of wind to north and northeast from north to south during the morning and midday hours, preventing much of the region from having time to rise to or above 90. Additionally, a lot more clouds will hang around on Friday and there can be a few additional showers around. Canadian high pressure should be strong enough to limit Saturday’s shower threat to the South Coast and the hills to the west, with much of the region enjoying dry weather. Sunday, however, the boundary will attempt a comeback with clouds becoming more dominant, and a shower threat, but again greatest to the south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, favoring north central MA and southern NH late-day. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Additional showers and thunderstorms possible in the region as a disturbance moves through from west to east June 24. This should be followed by a return to mainly fair and dry weather for mid period, with a possible shower as some warmth/humidity tries to return end of period. But the large scale pattern should feature less East Coast ridge, which will be back to the west with more of a west to northwest flow in our region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

All on track from a blast of heat as high pressure aloft dominates the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south delivers the early season blast furnace over the next few days, as we lead up to the astronomical arrival of summer with the solstice, which occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. General details of the forecast remain the same – hottest away from South Coast, moderate to high dew points but mainly staying under the oppressive threshold of 70, with a chance it drops off as a southwesterly air flow becomes more westerly on Thursday. Minimal pop up thunderstorm chances exist Wednesday and Thursday. A better chance of a few showers and storms will occur Friday as a front drops down from the north and cuts off what would have been a longer period of higher heat. You will be able to thank eastern Canadian high pressure for that. I still think this high presses far enough south for much of the region to be fairly comfortable and rain-free Saturday, though still can see showers/storms closer to the South Coast where the front will be hanging around.

TODAY: Patchy clouds for a while, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Watch June 23-25 for a few opportunities of showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary that comes into the region late week hangs around and tries to push back north. Details to be worked out for this period still. Generally fair, warm weather is anticipated with a more westerly flow by the middle of next week after a disturbance passes by, made possible by a retrogression of the upper ridge away from the East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

As we head through the final few days of spring and start summer this week (solstice is Thursday at 4:50 p.m. EDT), we have some intense summer heat to talk about. But before we get there, a day and part of another day of transition, after a comfortable weekend. Today we see some varying cloud cover in response to a warm front moving across the region. It is this front that opens the door to the hot weather, and as high pressure builds offshore at the surface and a strong upper level ridge dominates the East Coast, we’ll see the heat build quickly tomorrow through mid week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. It’s when we get to the end of the week that the puzzle to solve is a cold front dropping southward from Canada, with another surface high up there representing a cooler air mass. As has been my thought process for a while, I think that front will move through the region on Friday – exact timing to be a factor in high temps and any drop off that day. As far as any other rain threats leading up to the frontal situation, there would about up to about a 10% chance of a pop up air mass thunderstorm in a few locations Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoons. Don’t count on seeing any in one particular location, but keep in mind that the chance is greater than 0%. In addition, during the hottest weather this week, the southwesterly air flow that is transporting the heat into our region will pass over ocean water and therefore the typical modifying influence in temperature will take place for the South Coast region, especially Cape Cod.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around or over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP approaches 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

Forecast scenario for the June 22-23 weekend is for the frontal boundary that comes through Friday to stay just south of the region on Saturday with a shower/t-storm chance well south and west of Boston, fair elsewhere, moderate humidity, and not too hot (70s coast, 80s inland), and the frontal boundary to try to make a come-back on Sunday with more clouds and potentially more of a shower threat eventually, but still not hot (70s coast, around 80 inland). We may get back into a little bit of very warm to hot weather and notable humidity during the first part of next week, but with some retrogression of large scale features, including the high pressure ridge that causes this week’s heat, this would be a far less intense spell of heat, and may come with additional showers / t-storms with a disturbance or two moving through the region from the west and northwest. Much to fine-tune.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks the same with high pressure centered in the Midwest and a west to northwest flow here, limited heat but variable temperatures, dry most of the time but a few shower / storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure brings beautiful weather to our region during today with lots of sunshine, mild air, and low humidity. The high then builds offshore, and as an anomalous upper ridge of high pressure overtakes the East Coast, we’ll undergo a quick warm-up leading to a hot spell as we head into and through the middle of the coming week. Some records will be challenged. There will be some opportunity for slightly cooler sea breezes in coastal areas, especially the South Coast where the predominant wind direction will often have some ocean component to it. I do think that the upper atmosphere will be too warm and capped to support any isolated thunderstorms so for now those will be left out of the forecast. We may keep the dew points below the “oppressive” range as well during this spell, which while of limited benefit it is still of some benefit in terms of total comfort factor. Fittingly, the summer solstice occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday.

TODAY: Abundant sun – some high clouds. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, coolest South Coast. Dew point breaks 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 67-74, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 91-98, except cooler South Coast. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 92-99, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+ but may fall to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Watch for a cold front to slip down from the north and northeast June 21, bringing a shower/thunderstorm chance, a wind shift, and a potential cool-down with details depending on the timing of the frontal boundary. Canadian high pressure may be strong enough to bring us a fair weather and more comfortable day lacking heat and humidity on June 22 into June 23 before a the front tries to return with higher humidity and unsettled weather chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

A general westerly to northwesterly air flow with high pressure ridging further west (in the Midwest / Ohio Valley). This keeps us out of persistent heat, though brief heat can occur, along with a few shower and t-storm chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

The next 5 days will take us on a journey from comfortably cool to hot and humid. It starts out with a northerly air flow behind yesterday’s unsettled weather, delivering a dry and cool air mass directly out of Canada. A gusty breeze today will settle down later, and we’ll see a sun/cloud mix, but with a tendency for fewer clouds as we head into late-day after some leftover mid level cloud patches this morning and some diurnal cumulus development peaking during the first half of the afternoon. Tonight will be a clear and cool one as high pressure drifts into the region. There are some interior lower elevations that can drop into the upper 40s with the very dry air in place and light wind / calm conditions. Sunday is going to be a candidate for a “top ten” day by typical standards, with abundant sun, maybe filtered at times by some high clouds, not too much wind, and after the chilly start a comfortable midday and afternoon with dry air. Then we undergo a change from Monday to Wednesday a strong upper level high pressure ridge builds on the East Coast and surface high pressure parks itself southeast of New England. As it warms at upper levels initially we will see some varying amounts of high and perhaps some mid level cloudiness Monday and part of Tuesday, but I’m not expecting any precipitation from that. During this time we’ll “climb the temperature stairs” and by Wednesday we’ll be fully immersed in the heat with higher humidity as well. With a southwesterly air flow heading into the hot spell, the South Coast will see modified air and not be quite as hot as areas away from there. Onto the specific forecast…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest north-facing and east-facing shores. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine but some high cloud streaming across the sky as well. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable, mostly S to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point breaks 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

Hot, humid weather continues regionwide on the day of the summer solstice (4:50 p.m. EDT) June 20 with fair weather. June 21 watching for a back-door cold front to slip down from the north and northeast as surface high pressure scoots across eastern Canada and the upper level ridge starts a retrogression into the interior eastern US. While low confidence, expecting that eastern Canadian high to potentially be strong enough to give our region fair and relatively cooler weather for most of the June 22-23 weekend before a disturbance brings a rain chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

A general westerly to northwesterly air flow with high pressure ridging further west (in the Midwest / Ohio Valley). This keeps us out of persistent heat, though brief heat can occur, along with a few shower and t-storm chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

A cold front moves into the region today with a warm, more humid air mass in place. But sooner arrival of cloudiness will limit heating, and an earlier arrival of a first shower area (from upstream storms last night) will rob the atmosphere of some of its potential instability, lessening the threat of stronger storms in much of our region as we go through the afternoon. The greatest threat remains in areas west of I-495 / northwest of I-84, where some storms can produce damaging wind gusts, but incidents like this should be isolated, and not on a larger scale. As showers and storms approach the coastal plain, they will weaken. The front itself will be a little slow to move through our area this evening and tonight, with a little ripple of low pressure on it, so a more widespread shower area is anticipated, but timing suggests that this will exit as the low pressure waves is beyond the region and pulls the front more quickly offshore before dawn Saturday… The weekend is going to be cooler and drier. With the exception of the chance of a brief additional pop up shower first thing Saturday morning in eastern areas as a final low pressure trough moves through, expect dry weather with a sun/cloud mix and breezy conditions during Saturday, then more abundant sun and more tranquil weather on Sunday as high pressure builds over the region. This high will move offshore early next week when we keep mostly fair weather but undergo a warm-up. Some cloudiness will likely visit the region sometime Monday and/or Tuesday as it also warms up aloft as high pressure ridging begins to build on the East Coast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely, but greatest chance of heavier showers and stronger thunderstorms will be west and north of the coastal plain. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 81-88 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, can be variable and gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Evening showers and embedded thunderstorms. Overnight showers, ending toward dawn. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, still can be briefly stronger and gusty near any storms early evening, becoming N 5-15 MPH toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. An early to mid morning shower possible NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Highs 71-78, coolest north-facing and east-facing shores. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Signal for fair, hot weather with high pressure aloft on East Coast and high pressure at the surface south of New England during the middle of next week. High pressure in eastern Canada potentially under-forecast by medium range guidance may push a frontal boundary southward into our region later in the period, cutting off the heat and potentially bringing some showers/thunderstorms, at least initially. The summer solstice occurs on June 20 at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Westerly flow and weak trough brings unsettled weather early period, then briefly drier/cooler northwest flow before high pressure rebuilds with warm/dry weather later in the period. This is not high confidence but based on most reliable medium range ensemble guidance.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

High pressure provides a sunny and warmer day today but dew points will remain generally in the comfortable range (in the 50s but some lower 60s around the South Coast). A fair and mild night tonight with the 60+ dew point air creeping northward across the region. This sets us up for a warm and humid Friday as a cold front approaches. The timing of this front looks late enough that the bigger thunderstorm threat will remain west of the I-495 belt and occur later in the day, but it should be watched closely. Otherwise, we’ll have more clouds and an increased chance of showers. The frontal boundary crosses the region Friday night and exits early Saturday. Our weekend will feature comfortable air with generally dry weather. I can’t rule out a pop-up instability shower on Saturday mainly in the coastal plain east of I-95 through early or mid afternoon, otherwise it looks like a dry weekend. It’ll be breezy Saturday with a sun/cloud mix, and sunnier Sunday with less wind. Some clouds may roll in on Monday as it warms aloft but high pressure at the surface will keep our weather fair and dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially Boston area southward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A few pop up showers possible I-95 region eastward midday to mid afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

An upper level high pressure ridge builds on the East Coast. Surface high pressure to the south allows us to get warm to hot June 18-20, but that may be cut off by surface high pressure in eastern Canada sending a front down from the north later next week. It remains to be seen if any showers and thunderstorms would be involved with that potential change. The summer solstice occurs on June 20 at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Large scale pattern shows retrogression of high pressure from the East to the Midwest and a more northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, with limited shower / t-storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

The back side of upper level low pressure and boundaries created by sea breezes will be the trigger for a few afternoon and evening showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm in the region today, otherwise expect a mainly fair and comfortable day with a sun/cloud mix. Any showers go “poof” by tonight and as high pressure builds offshore, the dew point starts to creep up. This can lead to some ground fog patches overnight, but those will quickly dissipate in the rising sun Thursday, which will be a bright and warmer day as a southwesterly wind gets going. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast, so it will be cooler there in comparison to the remainder of the region. High pressure remains offshore Friday which ends up a very warm to hot, more humid day, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be the focus for a band of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. These likely form northwest of the WHW forecast area Friday afternoon, and based on the current expecting timing of the front’s approach and passage, the greatest chance of seeing downpours, gusty wind, and potential severe weather will be north and west of Boston late afternoon to early evening, with a weakening version of these heading southeastward later in the evening. I’ll monitor this and tweak the timing if needed, as well as adding more detail as we get closer to the event. Behind the front, high pressure builds toward the region Saturday and over the region Sunday. This will bring fair, pleasant weather. A gusty breeze will greet us on Saturday but it will settle down later, and Sunday will be more tranquil. It looks like a fabulous mid June weekend upcoming!

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon to early evening showers and potential thunderstorms around. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially Boston area southward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

A warm front may bring more clouds and perhaps some shower activity at some point June 17-18 as a trend toward a warm-up and increased humidity begins. Middle of next week looks hotter and more humid, at least briefly, with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast. We’ll have to watch another bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada which may help push a cold front southward, cutting off our hot weather sooner.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

Large scale pattern indicates a high pressure ridge retrograding from the Midwest to the Plains and a northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, but early in the period coming out of a hotter spell we may be vulnerable to heavier showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

A broad area of upper level low pressure continues to impact the weather today with air on the cooler side of normal and a few pop up showers possible. This exits tonight and Wednesday and high pressure begins to build in, but there can be just enough atmospheric instability to pop a shower or two Wednesday afternoon especially along a sea breeze boundary that will be fairly pronounced, otherwise most areas are dry for the day. Ahead of the summer solstice, a couple very warm to hot days are coming up as high pressure builds aloft along the East Coast and a surface high slides offshore. The humidity will come up as well but slowly, not really being noticed until Friday. That’s also the day that a cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest. I still have to fine-tune the timing of this front. That will help determine how hot the day is and how strong the showers and thunderstorms that accompany it will become. For now, a broad 12 hour window of noon to midnight is in place for the shower and storm potential, first to the west, and moving eastward with time. In reality, any one location will probably only be under the gun for these for a few hours in total. This front moves offshore later Friday night and we’ll have a cooler, breezy, dry day for Saturday to start the weekend.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a pop-up shower. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Fair weather continues through the remainder of the weekend June 16. Unsettled weather is possible at some point during June 17 and/or 18 as a warm front moves through, then some hotter weather is possible by the middle of next week. The summer solstice occurs on June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Large scale pattern indicates a high pressure ridge retrograding from the Midwest to the Plains and a northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, but early in the period coming out of a hotter spell we may be vulnerable to heavier showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

As we enter mid June, we find ourselves with a stretch of pretty nice weather, despite an upper low and a cold front in this 5-day forecast. Starting out the week, we have upper level low pressure still spinning around across the US Northeast and adjacent southeastern Canada. Gradually, this system weakens and drifts eastward, but will still have an impact on our weather in terms of keeping temperatures from being too warm, and also providing enough instability for the possibility of pop-up showers, triggered by daytime heating, both today and Tuesday. Coverage will be isolated to scattered at best though, and many areas will stay dry. High pressure builds in with “top 10 day” kind of weather on Wednesday – mild to warm, low humidity, abundant sun, fairly light wind. Any coastal areas can be a little cooler the next 3 days with sea breeze development. Thursday, high pressure ridging overtakes the East Coast and surface high pressure builds offshore, providing us with lots of sun and a warm-up, with a slight up-tick in the humidity that won’t be all that noticeable. It will become more noticeable on Friday as dew points reach the 60s regionwide as we’ll have a stronger southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The southwest winds we’ll see Thursday and Friday are of course a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast and Cape Cod, which will have accordingly modified temperatures – cooler than other areas in our region. Friday’s weather will start with sun, though there can be some low level clouds coming in from the southwest off the waters south of New England, limiting the sun closer to the South Coast. If the air flow is more southerly, these clouds can be more extensive and limit the temperature rise, but I don’t think this is going to be the case. In addition, the approach and arrival of a cold front will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime Friday afternoon or evening, and the timing of this front’s arrival will determine both the ability to heat up, as well as the strength of any thunderstorms. This is something I’ll focus on as we go through the week.

TODAY: Abundant sun to start. An area of high clouds moves across the northern sky this morning to early afternoon. Diurnal clouds pop up late morning through afternoon, with a few isolated showers possible mainly mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH, but immediate coastal areas can see a couple hours of a sea breeze.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. A few fog patches interior valleys. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun to start, then a sun/cloud mix except may stay sunnier in coastal areas. Isolated afternoon showers possible. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. A few fog patches may form again interior lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

June 15-16 weekend will be fair, seasonable, and dry with high pressure in control. The high slips offshore early to middle portion of next week with some clouds and maybe some showers leading warmer air back into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

The Summer Solstice occurs on June 20. The large scale pattern is expected to feature high pressure at upper levels in the Midwest and Ohio Valley retrograding toward the Plains. This pattern is usually a warm one for us, but more significant heat stays to the west or only visits briefly, with a couple disturbances offering opportunities for passing showers and thunderstorms in an overall drier pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

A potent but fast-moving disturbance will cause an episode of unsettled weather today, but not for the entire day. The orientation of the rainfall means that areas north of the Route 2 corridor see rain the longest, because it starts earlier. The further south you go, the shorter-duration the rainfall will be. Across the region it take the form of widespread showers with isolated embedded thunder possible. It will end fairly rapidly from west to east midday and early afternoon, clearing western portions of the WHW forecast area by the end of the morning, central portions by around noon, I-95 belt / Cape Ann by about 1 p.m., and the MA South Shore / South Coast by about 2 p.m., followed by intervals of sun for the remainder of the day. Although there’s a slight chance of an isolated follow-up shower in a few areas, most locations will be rain-free after the initial batch moves through. Upper level low pressure weakens and slides eastward across the region from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic waters just to our east. During this transit, daytime heating initiates the potential for spot showers each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, but probably not by Wednesday as the system will be far enough east by then. Temperatures will be fairly close to seasonal values during this time, with coastal areas vulnerable to sea breezes each day as we’ll have a fairly weak surface pressure field. Thursday, a high pressure ridge arrives on the East Coast and surface high pressure slides offshore, opening the door to our next preview of summer, at which time we’ll see it quite warm with an increase in humidity as well.

TODAY: Generally cloudy through midday with a few hours of rain northern MA / southern NH and up to a couple hours of showers with the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm in areas to the south, ending west to east between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., followed by clouds and intervals of sun and only a slight chance of an isolated follow-up shower in a few locations. Highs 69-76. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W up to 10 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Very warm and somewhat humid on June 14 but an approaching cold front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms by late day or evening from to east. This should progress through setting up a fair weather, seasonably warm, but lower humidity weekend June 15-16. Later in the period some clouds / humidity / shower chances return, but too far into the future for details.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

The Summer Solstice occurs on June 20. The large scale pattern (with the help of most trusted medium range guidance) presents potentials for putting a ridge of high pressure at upper levels in the Midwest with our region on the edge of it, but some surface high pressure off the East Coast. Heading into early summer, this pattern usually allows some shots of heat here, but also interruptions from passing fronts / disturbances in a northwesterly flow. It’s often drier than it is wetter, but when you do see disturbances, you can have rounds of heavier thunderstorms. We’ll have to watch for these things as we head into this period, and fine-tune with time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

June’s second weekend will not be as perfect as its first, but also won’t be all that bad! Today is the pick, and Sunday will be the more unsettled day, but not a lost day to weather. Upper level low pressure continues to dominate, and one weak disturbance can fire off a few showers that can quickly move across portions of the region, favoring the first half of the afternoon today. That should be about it. If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky and check the radar. If you do experience a shower, it should be brief, even if it is on the heavier side. A more formidable disturbance will cross our region Sunday morning and midday. The first band of showers should extend west-to-east and favor areas north of I-90 from pre-dawn to mid morning, followed by one or possibly two broken to potentially solid shower bands that are more oriented north-to-south and sweeping eastward across the region during the midday hours (late morning to early afternoon). A couple of these may contain thunder, so again if you have outdoor plans, keep a close eye on the sky / radar (if you can) and know that your plans have a better shot of being interrupted Sunday than they do today. While clouds may be more plentiful into later Sunday, the shower threat should be absent after 2 p.m., even earlier to the west. Today’s going to feature more wind but also be a touch warmer, due to less cloud cover, compared to Sunday. We remain under the influence of upper level low pressure as it weakens and pulls to the east early in the coming week, with both Monday and Tuesday featuring a sun/cloud mix and a chance of a few showers, but certainly not “wet” days by standard definition. My expectation is that high pressure provides abundant sun for Wednesday while at that time a low pressure area remains well south of New England, off the Mid Atlantic Coast, destined for open ocean and not the Northeast.

TODAY: Clouds entering southwestern NH and north central MA at mid morning will turn the sunny sky elsewhere into a mixed sky by late morning. Cloud/sun intervals this afternoon with the potential for a passing shower mainly between noon and 3 p.m. from west to east. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease in the evening before returning overnight. Potential for showers pre-dawn favoring areas north of I-90 / west of I-95. Lows 54-61. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH evening, then shifting to S.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with episodic showers favoring areas north of I-90 during the morning, then 1 or 2 rounds of brief but possibly heavier showers and the chance of a thunderstorm from west to east during midday. Partly sunny mid afternoon on. Highs 69-76. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH morning, S to SW 5-15 MPH afternoon, shifting to W late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

A quick warm-up with fair weather as high pressure moves offshore June 13, pushing temperatures above normal. Warmth lingers June 14 but a cold front approaching from the west brings the chance of showers/t-storms. Early outlook is that generally fair weather returns for the June 15-16 weekend into the end of the period as well with seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

The Summer Solstice occurs on June 20. There are some indications of high pressure building offshore and providing our first bout of summer heat right around that time. I do think this will be transitional and part of a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern, so there will likely be changing weather in this time period, not stagnant weather. More detail about this period of time in upcoming posts.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

Upper level low pressure controls our weather during the next 5 days. On the large scale this is a fairly simple pattern, but on the smaller scale it’s complex in that there can be several instances of passing showers that are hard to or impossible to time in advance. It still looks like this evening and Sunday morning are the highest probability time windows, with lower chances at other times, for showers in any given part of the region. While Saturday looks like a fairly dry day, there is the very slight chance of a few showers that day. Monday and Tuesday, similarly, present smaller shower chances as well, but not low enough to leave them out of the forecast. Temperatures will be held “in check” during this period – no significant heat.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms, with activity most likely late afternoon / early evening. Highs 73-80. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Only a slight chance of a brief shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with the best chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny with only a slight chance of a shower during the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

A more westerly flow on the larger scale, but a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast. Best shower chance comes at mid period. Temperatures somewhat variable, but no significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

A more zonal pattern continues during this period with a spell of warmer to hotter weather possible mid to late period. While a couple shower / t-storm chances exist, the overall pattern is drier.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

A stretch of unsettled weather takes us through this 5-day period, but don’t have it in your mind that we have 5 overcast and rainy days ahead of us. We’ll find plenty of “nice” weather in this stretch too. The cause of the unsettled pattern is an upper level low pressure area spinning around the Great Lakes region, gradually to shift eastward with time through the weekend into early next week. This represents a cold pool aloft which will often make the atmosphere unstable. Today is going to be the cloudiest day and there will be two main shower episodes, one this morning to midday favoring southern and eastern areas, especially the South Coast, and the other which holds off until this evening before moving through from southwest to northeast. This leaves a good part of today rain-free, though not with much (if any) sun outside of some sneaky rays to start the day in some locations. From Friday through Monday we have “spokes of energy” rotating around the upper low bringing us enhanced chances for showers at times, especially when the sun is allowed to act on the landscape during the daylight hours. It’s nearly impossible to time these shower threats other than following trends on short range guidance which can help at least narrow down the greater threat windows. Friday evening and Sunday morning seem to be the current “higher threat time frames” so to speak, but just keep in mind that passing shower can occur at any time during the coming days. Watch radar if you have outdoor plans, and check updates here of course (as well as other trusted sources such as NWS and local media). Overall temperatures will be cooler the next several days.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas south of I-90 this morning and west of I-495 end of day. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm this evening. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Highs 65-75. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 54-61. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Highs 66-73. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Weak upper level low pressure returns, but surface high pressure should eliminate any shower chances early in the period before a weak trough helps to bring back the chance of diurnal showers mid to late period. No organized significant storm systems or significant hot weather expected.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

A more zonal pattern evolves during this period with a spell of warmer to hotter weather possible toward the end of the period. While a couple shower / t-storm chances exist, the overall pattern is drier here.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

You won’t find a whole lot different in today’s discussion compared to yesterday’s, but one obvious change comes in the immediate term (as in while I write this just after 7:00 a.m.) especially from southern NH to eastern MA, as a cluster of showers, even a few downpours, have migrated down from northern New England and continue to feed on the boundary between marine air over eastern portions of our region and advancing warmer, more humid air from the southwest. These should fade as they drift southeastward, but will be around for a little while into mid morning. After this, the balance of the day is expected to be rain-free, with a sun/cloud mix, and overall warmer than yesterday with a southwesterly air flow overtaking the region. This, of course, is a direct ocean wind for the South Coast, where it will be coolest today. There is another disturbance that is going to drift down from Northern New England later in the afternoon that can create a few more showers and thunderstorms mainly in southern and age and northeastern MA, so be on the lookout for those wandering through the region. If they do occur, they may be on the heavier side. On the large scale, we will continue to see a broad upper level low pressure area enter the Great Lakes and spin around there for several days, sending waves of moisture our way. The most prominent one leads the pack and will provide us widespread showers for Thursday – easily the wettest day of this week for the region. Beyond that, Friday and the weekend feature daily chances for showers, even some heavier thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the time will feature rain-free weather for any given location. Temperatures will trend to near to below normal after today’s warmth.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning with showers, a few heavy, from southern NH into central and eastern MA, perhaps into northern RI, diminishing while heading southeastward into mid morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. One more shot at a shower or thunderstorm Southern NH to northeastern MA late in the day. Highs ranging from 65-70 South Coast / Cape Cod to 83-88 interior valleys. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Overnight showers possible. Lows 56-63. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodic and fairly widespread showers likely. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Highs 65-75. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 54-61. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Highs 66-73. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

Upper level low pressure weakens and drifts eastward across the region early in the period with additional isolated showers possible, before another upper low moves in via the Great Lakes later in the period and continues the unsettled pattern and also keeps us from seeing any overly warm to hot weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Tendency for weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast but more of a zonal pattern. Still opportunities for showers, but long spells of rain-free weather. Starting on the cooler side of normal but may heat up later in the period.