Mid-storm, and things are mostly on track based on expectation. Elongated low pressure passing just off our South Coast today starts to intensify as it moves east northeast and starts to pull away. Areas that have seen several to quite a few inches of snow will see another few to several inches today from “part 2”, and areas that have had little or no snowfall are in for a flash freeze and a couple to a few inches of snow as the cold air comes back into those areas, as explained in yesterday’s post. Everything winds down this evening as low pressure pulls away. And just to review, adding what is still to come in snowfall, it should bring the area generally into the ranges posted yesterday. Those are…

Outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard: 1/2 to 2 inches mostly midday and afternoon Sunday.

Rhode Island and Massachusetts South Coast to coastal Plymouth County MA as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA: 2 to 4 inches.

Coastal NH through Eastern Essex County MA through Boston to Providence including I-95, to Southeastern CT: 4-8 inches.

Interior southern NH through central MA to northeastern CT: 8-12 inches.

Keep in mind that even in these ranges there can always be pockets of lighter or heavier amounts due to local effects and mesoscale to microscale synoptic anomalies.

And how about the weather after this, including the next storm threat? Generally the same idea as yesterday, but let’s expand on that a little more. Monday’s a bright, tranquil winter day as high pressure moves in. Monday night is a cold one with high pressure overhead and great radiational cooling over snowcover with a clear sky above and light wind. The next storm is coming for late Tuesday into Wednesday in the form of potent low pressure to pass just west of our region. Even though we have a nice temperature rebound Tuesday off the very cold early morning lows, there will still be enough cold air around for the storm to start as snow/mix over some inland and especially higher elevation locations, before rain takes over. I’m going to lean a bit more away from freezing rain but still cannot rule it out in a few pockets well inland northwest of Boston. Will keep an eye on that as we get closer to the event. The main threats with the next storm will be flooding from heavy rainfall and damaging wind with additional power outages possibilities. Coastal issues should be minimal with astronomical lower tides this time. Wednesday will be a very mild day as the storm peaks early then pulls away. Dry, cooler weather comes behind it all on Thursday.

TODAY: Overcast with snow likely except rain across much of the South Coast to MA South Shore which will change to snow by midday/afternoon. Flash freeze occurs this afternoon in areas seeing rain to start the day. Highs occurring early to mid-morning ranging widely from 28-35 northwest of Boston to 35-42 Boston south and southeast, followed by a temperature fall into the 20s from northwest to southeast midday on. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow than freezing rain possible some interior locations. Lows 30-37 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain morning. Breaking clouds with additional rain showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with potential stronger gusts, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

An active weather pattern continues. Next storm threat comes early in the holiday weekend (focused on January 13). More detail for this next update.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

The first thing to note this morning is short-term. Many of you saw the day dawn overcast. It is hard to tell at first look but the clouds that blanket a good portion of the region are stratus from a lower level inversion between 3,500 and 4,000 ft. These clouds crept in overnight mostly from the west and northwest and are now drifting more to the south and southwest due to a shift in the near surface wind. I did not have this cloud deck forecast accurately in yesterday’s update so it is here in somewhat of a surprise fashion, at least in terms of my expectations. While this is going on, the expected high cloud shield is overspreading the sky from the west southwest in advance of our coming storm, which I will dive into talking about in a moment. The lower clouds are showing a bit of a clearing trend from the northeast so there can be the reappearance of some filtered sunshine especially from the NH Seacoast through parts of eastern MA during this morning into the midday hours before we start to see the cloud shield from the storm system lower and thicken as the day goes on.

We are going to be impacted by two significant storm systems during the next 5 days, and while the second one may be rather significant in its own way, we obviously need to deal with the more imminent one first. Synoptically, there isn’t a lot of change really at all between yesterday’s discussion and today’s. We are still looking at low pressure emerging off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast and moving east southeastward with any elongated center passing just to the south of New England. This takes place while a cold high pressure area is centered to our north and northeast. This system has two main parts to it. To summarize what you read yesterday, we have the first part which consists of a good punch of precipitation coming in this evening, mostly late evening. There may be a finger of moisture a head of the main shield that brings some snow to southern New Hampshire before most of the rest of the region sees anything. But by late evening we should have a precipitation shield overspreading the entire area falling in the form of snow for most. The exception is going to be coastal areas and especially southeastern MA, where enough warming takes place from an easterly wind off the ocean to result in a snow-rain mix or just rain for several hours. If the precipitation intensity is great enough somewhat colder air above can overcome the surface warmth and some of the coastal areas, including Boston, can go back and forth between rain and snow. That is something we’ll have to observe as it happens. This first part of the storm is going to produce the bulk of the snowfall accumulation for interior locations, northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island up through central and interior northeastern MA and across much of interior southern NH. There will be a general lull in the precipitation as we reach the pre-dawn hours into about mid-morning on Sunday. Snow will still be falling but more lightly over interior areas while the coastal areas that were seeing rainfall will probably continue to see some light mix, rain, and drizzle. When we get to midday and afternoon on Sunday, things change fairly quickly and in some areas significantly. This is when the back side of the elongated low pressure area, which will be intensifying at that point, drags in cold air and also starts to develop an enhanced area of precipitation – mainly snow, and flipping any areas still rain over to snow all the way out through Cape Cod before it ends in the early evening. This second part of the storm will deliver the bulk of the snowfall accumulation from Boston southeastward. Regardless of how much snow accumulates from this part of the storm, perhaps more importantly will be the flash freeze that occurs as temperatures fall quickly into and through the 20s in places that were near to above freezing for many hours. This will cause any wet snow, slush, and water to freeze up rapidly. Untreated surfaces will become very slippery and this will last through the morning hours of Monday while the temperature remains below freezing. A partial melt will take place during the day on Monday as the temperature goes above freezing in most areas that saw the flash freeze. But the sun angle is still fairly low at this point in January and it is going to be quite cold Monday night so anything that melted, if still not removed or still an untreated surface, will freeze again. Please keep this in mind if you have to walk or drive outside at any point through early Tuesday. One thing I did not touch upon yet and before I forget to, wind and coastal flooding are not going to be a significant part of the storm for most of the region. There is a slight exception in that the winds can gust over 30 MPH and perhaps as high as 50 MPH for a portion of the storm, especially Sunday midday and afternoon, along the immediate Coast of Southeastern MA and across Cape Cod. This, combined with somewhat wetter snow there for a while, may lead to isolated power outages. I’m not expecting this to be a widespread issue, however. As for Monday’s weather, it will be a very nice winter day and the chance to catch our breath between the first storm and another one that will be racing in our direction. This is likely to be a very potent low pressure area that will pass just west of New England Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The main concerns with this system are several. At the outset, we are going to have some stubborn cold air in place, and the guidance doesn’t tend to see this very well yet and will probably over forecast the warmth initially that will be impacted by a fresh snow cover from the first system. So the concern is for a punch of snow Tuesday evening from the early part of that storm, most likely away from the coast based on what will most likely be a southeast wind warming the coastline more quickly. But basically anywhere north and west of Boston is vulnerable to a period of snow, and some higher elevations can see a significant accumulation of it before the air above warms enough to shut the snow down and change it to rain. And even when that happens there may be some interior locations that are still cold enough at the surface that freezing rain can be an issue. That is something we will start to look into in more detail once we get beyond this first system. The other aspect of that storm is once we are beyond the early storm precipitation issues, we are in for quite the wind and rain event lasting into Wednesday morning, in which flooding and wind damage will be concerns. Again, more detail to come as this event draws closer.

Before I get to the main forecast breakdown, for this first system here are my snowfall amounts, and these are totals for the entire system. Keep in mind that there may be some areas that have little or no snow after the “part one” is finished, that will be receiving the vast majority of the snow from “part two”.

Outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard: 1/2 to 2 inches mostly midday and afternoon Sunday.

Rhode Island and Massachusetts South Coast to coastal Plymouth County MA as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA: 2 to 4 inches.

Coastal NH through Eastern Essex County MA through Boston to Providence including I-95, to Southeastern CT: 4-8 inches.

Interior southern NH through central MA to northeastern CT: 8-12 inches.

Keep in mind that even in these ranges there can always be pockets of lighter or heavier amounts due to local effects and mesoscale to microscale synoptic anomalies. I will try to update these during the day on Sunday when I am not outside doing snow removal. 🙂

Next is the detailed forecast…

TODAY: Limited sun for some areas through midday otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. A mid evening period of snow near the MA / NH border into southern NH, then precipitation over spreads the entire region in the form of snow except rain or snow coast and rain Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations especially south of Boston until midday before those areas go over to snow. Highs occurring early to mid-morning ranging widely from 28-35 northwest of Boston to 35-42 Boston south and southeast, followed by a temperature fall into the 20s from northwest to southeast midday on. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow than freezing rain possible some interior locations. Lows 30-37 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain morning. Breaking clouds with additional rain showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with potential stronger gusts, shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

An active weather pattern continues. Watch for a cold front to deliver colder air by late January 11 with rain and snow shower chances. Winter storm possibility around the beginning of the MLK Jr weekend, with fair weather to follow later in the weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Fair weather to start. Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

Our first significant winter storm with frozen precipitation as the main player is on the way and will have a significant impact on the first weekend of 2024. But before we get there, we have a bright but cold Friday ahead. Gusty winds that are taking wind chill readings to around 10 will ease up later today, taking the edge off the cold, but we will have plenty of sun. Tonight will be another cold one, but this time without the biting wind. Saturday’s bright early sun will become filtered then fade behind increasing high cloudiness. This is in advance of the aforementioned winter storm. Detailing this event is next, keeping in mind a few tweaks can still follow. Expecting a low pressure area to emerge off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday evening and then become an elongated low center as it passes just to the southeast of New England during the entirety of Sunday. There are two upper level boosts of energy for this system, the first one to give the initial batch of precipitation some enhancement as it overspreads the region Saturday night (late evening / overnight from southwest to northeast), and a second one coming along during Sunday afternoon, with a slight regionwide lull in between. In addition, an east wind to the north of the low pressure area, with high pressure in southeastern Canada, will drag low level warmth in off the ocean, making it harder for precipitation to stay as snow along the coast and especially over Cape Cod for at least the first part of the precipitation. As the low center starts to move more to the east and eventually gets to a position more southeast of the region, the wind will start to turn more northerly and drag colder air in further south and east with time. Also, with the first area, we have to watch for some heavier snow banding quite a distance from the low center as we can sometimes see. These factors make for a potentially complex pattern of snowfall accumulation. The overall idea though is that the first part of the storm may produce the majority of the accumulation we see north and west of Boston, while the latter portion of the storm would produce most of and in some cases all of the snowfall accumulation for locations south and southeast. Cape Cod, for example, can start as a mix or rain, and stay that way for many hours with no accumulating snowfall until as late as the middle of the day on Sunday, but still end up with a couple inches of snowfall at the end. Keeping all of this in mind, when reading my snowfall accumulation forecast break-down, remember that these are for the storm as a whole. Current expectations are: Up to 1 inch mainly late in storm Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1-3 inches Mid Cape Cod to immediate MA/RI South Coast, and outer tip of Cape Ann MA, 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Ann MA, MA North Shore including Boston, MA South Shore to Providence RI area and southeastern CT, and 6-10 inches for the balance of the region including all of southern NH, and generally west of I-95 in the majority of eastern MA away from the coast, northwestern RI, and east central to northeastern CT, through central MA as well, with isolated bands of 10-12 inches possible favoring higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Low pressure finally pulls away Sunday evening with any lingering snow ending. I’m not expecting huge wind impacts from this system, with maximum potential wind gusts of 30-50 MPH confined mostly to Cape Cod which will be closest to the deepening low center as it starts to pull away. This may lead to some minor coastal flooding and wind damage in that area. The power outage risk is not as great as a recent wind and rain storm, but exists in areas that will see a heavier and wetter snow for the first part of the storm, mainly I-95 eastward. Behind this system comes a tranquil winter day on Monday with lots of sun but cold air. Monday night will get quite cold as light winds over a snow cover combine with clear sky to produce good radiational cooling. Our El Nino pattern will keep us on our toes as the expected active pattern of January goes on, sending another storm our way with increasing clouds Tuesday and another precipitation threat by the end of the day. We’ll look at this in more detail next update.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations especially south of Boston until midday before those areas go over to snow. Highs 33-40 occurring in the morning, then falling temperatures in the afternoon. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain/mix/snow possible by late day or at night. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Active pattern. Storm system impacts the region January 10 with most likely track just to our west with the precipitation ending up as mainly rain before drier air arrives along with plenty of wind. More detail on this system to come. Another storm threat exists by late in the period (around next weekend) which may be in a colder set-up and have a better chance of including snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Fair weather to start. Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Today, low pressure scoots out to sea to the southeast of our area, while a cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast. Other than the slight chance of a rain or snow shower from the front, it’ll be a dry day, just starting with a lot of clouds and eventually seeing some sunshine. Colder air moves in tonight on a gusty breeze, with sharper air than we’ve felt in a while as it falls to the 20s with wind chill temps dropping below 20. Friday’s weather will feature a chill but it will be a dry day, starting with a stinging breeze but ending up more tranquil as high pressure takes over. This high will keep it cold on Saturday as we start to see increasing high clouds ahead of a storm system set to impact the region later that night and through most of Sunday. There are still some questions to be answered regarding the track of the low pressure center and the full impact on us. Confidently I can say that a good portion of the region is likely to receive measurable snowfall significant enough to pull out a shovel to move it. However, don’t read this as everybody gets nailed, because there are some factors against a widespread significant snowfall at play here as well. Among them are a low center that may deepen more slowly than shown by many models, and one that may also string itself out quite a bit to our south, not having the impact as far north as many systems like it may have. Another issue is an easterly wind off the relatively mild Atlantic water which will warm the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This presents a chance that rain will be at least mixed in over eastern locations of MA, and that even plain rain may fall for a while in many immediate coastal areas. If this is to be the case, snowfall amounts will be cut down significantly by it. The greatest chance of a moderate to locally heavier snowfall resides away from the coast of MA and southern NH, down to northern RI and northeastern CT, based on my current ideas of how the storm tracks and its precipitation shield. I’ll put a solid first call for accumulation on the next blog update (Friday morning). Behind this system, precipitation exits and we dry out for the start of the coming week on Monday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow showers through early afternoon, then increasing sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations. Highs 33-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow ending in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Storm potential late January 9 into January 10 with a mix of precipitation but ending up as mainly a rain event based on current projected track. A dry interlude between that and another late-period storm chance as we remain in an active weather pattern. Temperatures may surge with the passage of the first storm system depending on its track, and turn colder behind it, but the period as a whole will see near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Unsettled weather potentials very early and very late in the period based on current timing of disturbances in an active weather pattern. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

A disturbance will send some clouds through the region this morning, but it will clear out behind it this afternoon with more sunshine. Heavy frost is noted again, like yesterday, in many areas early today so allow a few extra minutes to scrape or defrost your car window if you have to drive early! Clouds return later today into Thursday as one low pressure system passes offshore and a cold front swings through the region from the northwest. The latter may produce a brief rain or snow shower Thursday through midday but otherwise it remains dry for most areas. High pressure brings dry, chilly weather late in the week. Over the weekend we eye low pressure approaching our region, and there is still quite a bit of detail to figure out. With this system at day 5 and still some disagreement and inconsistency in the guidance we use to try to help forecast it, I’m not really going to make any changes in my thoughts on it from yesterday, as the overall set-up looks the same to me. We should see our first widespread snowfall of the season, with some accumulation to talk about, but it may not start as snow or stay as snow for everybody. Synoptically speaking, I do expect somewhat elongated low pressure to be a little too far south to really nail the region, but close enough to produce a good shield of precipitation. Details will come into focus with time, but for now just prepare for the possibility of a messy / wintry end to the weekend.

TODAY: Limited morning sun with lots of high level clouds moving through. Brighter afternoon sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow showers through early afternoon, then increasing sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain some coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations. Highs 33-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Dry January 8. Next window of opportunity for storminess is later January 9 into January 10. Early feeling on this is low pressure tracking west of New England but some variety of precipitation with cold air around to start before it becomes a mainly rain event. Obviously too far for any further detail and will monitor. Dry weather follows, but next storm may approach by the end of the period in an active pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Storm threat window January 13-14. Dry weather follows. Temperatures variable, mostly near to a little above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

Now that we’re into the second month of meteorological winter, it’s time to look ahead to see if the pattern transition prognosticated in the winter outlook back in November has any signs of getting underway. It won’t take long to determine that the answer is yes. After a mild and essentially snowless December (or top 5 least-snowy on record for much of the region), we’re going to see an active pattern start to bring some snow chances, the start of the first of these being on the ending time border of this 5-day outlook. But before we get to that, it’s time to look at the more immediate future. First, we have high pressure to provide a bright, dry, seasonably chilly day today. A weak disturbance will swing across northern New England and a little extension of a low pressure trough will send a batch of clouds through the region during the first half of the day on Wednesday. I previously had a snow shower threat in the forecast from this feature, but feel the need to remove it as it seems like the air will simply be too dry. Thursday, a progressive upper trough swings through the East Coast region. This system actually has 2 parts, a southern jet stream trough that will ignite low pressure offshore, well to our southeast, that will move quickly out to sea. That feature may bring a touch of light rain to the South Coast, if anything. A northern jet stream disturbance will push a cold front through our region and this may bring a rain or snow shower to a few locations, but nothing significant. Another area of high pressure builds in on Friday with fair, seasonably chilly weather. This high keeps it dry and chilly on Saturday, but this day will feature sun starting to fade behind increasing clouds in advance of a more potent El Nino driven southern jet stream storm system. We may see snow arriving from this system as early as Saturday evening…

TODAY: Unlimited sun. Highs 34-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Some clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Some clouds morning, especially north of I-90, otherwise more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers through early afternoon, then partial sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

Winter storm threat to start the period on January 7. At forecast day 6 there is still a lot of uncertainty to clarify in terms of the exact track of low pressure, precipitation intensity and orientation, as well as type, though snow is favored over rain at this point for much of the region. Current leaning is a driving upper trough that is not too amplified and a fairly progressive low center passing south of New England with a cold high to the north, and a widespread snowfall with higher odds of heavier snowfall to the south and lighter to the north. Please note this isn’t even close to a final call and there are several days left to fine tune the system’s impacts. Post-storm return to dry weather January 8, but next system brings precipitation chances right back to the region later January 9 into January 10 before dry weather returns behind that system at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Active pattern into mid month with another window of opportunity for storminess focused on January 12-14. No major temperature anomalies indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy 2024! We’ll start the year with a seasonably chilly day, lots of clouds, and a chance of a passing snow flurry as a disturbance goes through the area and low pressure develops offshore, that will then move away. High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, a quick-moving low pressure area moving out to our southeast, moving out to sea, and a cold front swinging through from the northwest combine to bring a few insignificant rain and snow showers to the region. High pressure returns with fair and chilly weather Friday.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun at times. A passing light snow flurry possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Potential storms to impact the region January 7 and 10. Early leaning on the first one is a colder storm, but weaker than modeled and energy stretched with a light to moderate snow/mix event, and very early idea on the other is a Great Lakes system with our region on the milder side of that system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

Watching the January 13-14 window for a potential winter storm impact.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

So now we have made it to the final day of 2023 and this is the final update of the year. Not a lot of change to write about in today’s blog post. I haven’t felt much uncertainty in my forecasting of this pattern and that higher confidence continues as we end a mild and rather snowless month of December and head into the first month of the new year. For this final day of 2023 we will have a dry and seasonably chilly day. A disturbance is going to pass by mostly to our southwest on the first day of 2024 but enough moisture is around that a brief rain or snow shower can occur here. Following that we have a couple of seasonably chilly and generally dry days for Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a weak cold front pushing through the region later Wednesday that can produce a snow flurry, but that will probably be the exception rather than the rule. Low pressure scoots by the region on Thursday, its evolving center passing to our southeast and the bulk of its moisture staying offshore so just a little light snowfall or mixed precipitation / rain closer to the South Coast is what I am expecting.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 36-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of snow except mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 33-40. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Watch for a southern jet stream storm system near or south of the region mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

Weather pattern transition brings one disturbance through the region early in the period that delivers some cold air after some precipitation, followed by our first winter storm threat toward the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Upper level low pressure and a surface cold front swing through from northwest to southeast today, maintaining unsettled weather for several hours. We’ll start to see improvement at the end of the day as the front pulls through and drier air arrives. Behind this front it turns more seasonably chilly for the end of the weekend and the final day of 2023 on Sunday with dry weather. A trough passing by on Monday may be responsible for a rain or snow shower in a few locations as we greet 2024. A dry, chilly westerly air flow is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, but later Wednesday another weak cold frontal boundary approaching may cause a snow flurry.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a chance of rain showers. Decreasing clouds late-day from northwest to southeast. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH, shifting to NW 5-15 MPH by late-day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 36-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Disturbance passes by early period with minor precipitation threat but more organized storminess gets going offshore and moves away. Will watch for a southern jet stream storm system near or south of the region later in the period. Polar jet stream remains in Canada – temps run on the mild side of normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

We’ll feel the effects of a slow pattern transition with a bit more chill. A dry pattern early to mid period. A storm threat may present itself late period.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Low pressure brings additional damp weather today. An upper trough and frontal system pass through Saturday with a little bit of lingering unsettled weather. The trend is drier and a little colder to end 2023 and begin 2024, but a quick shower of rain and/or snow may accompany the passage of a trough on New Year’s Day.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

Dry and seasonably chilly weather with high pressure in control during the middle of next week before an unsettled weather threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

This period features mainly dry weather and an unsteady but general trend toward colder weather.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

A series of low pressure areas results in a spell of unsettled weather until Saturday. The first one moving by just to our southeast today gives us most of our rainfall, especially the first half of the day. A follow up low can produce periods of additional rain through Friday. An upper level low and surface cold front have to swing through on Saturday with a rain and snow shower threat. The balance of the holiday weekend will feature more seasonably chilly weather as we say bye to 2023 Sunday and hi to 2024 Monday. Mainly dry weather is expected, but I can’t rule out a passing snow flurry with a weak disturbance moving through the region on Monday.

TODAY: Overcast with widespread rain and areas of fog through midday. Mostly cloudy with spotty light rain and drizzle during the rest of the day. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

Dry and seasonably chilly weather with high pressure in control through the middle of next week before an unsettled weather threat looms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

Unsettled weather threat comes early period with a rain/snow chance. Drier weather follows. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Unsettled weather will be dominant until the start of the weekend as a series of low pressure areas impact the region. This morning, while not as widespread as yesterday, there will be some areas of visibility-reducing fog, and today the sun is not as likely to break out once the fog burns off, as more cloud cover will be prevalent. Low pressure emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast by tonight will move just southeast of New England during Thursday, producing a spell of rain for our region. This will taper off for a time, but additional periods of rain can still occur through Friday with a follow-up low, this one weaker, moving by the region. Finally, upper level low pressure swings through during Saturday with some lingering rain and snow showers as slightly colder air arrives. Finally, high pressure moves in with fair, seasonably chilly weather for the final day of 2023 on Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

Drier and more seasonably chilly pattern to start 2024.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Unsettled weather threat comes early to mid period with rain/snow chances. Drier weather follows. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Where’s Rudolph when you really need him? A very foggy start to the day after Christmas across the region as calm wind is met with matching temperature and dew point essentially across the entire WHW forecast area. If you have plans to travel on the roads, use caution from early through mid morning until the fog finally thins out and dissipates. This will take place as a southwesterly breeze develops and warms the temperature above dew point levels while also mixing the air up to clear the fog. Some fog patches may re-develop tonight though as we have very light wind. Wednesday, a southeast breeze will repeat the process that today’s southwest breeze does. The southeast breeze Wednesday will be ahead of low pressure that will move up from the Mid Atlantic and bring our region a slug of rain Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday morning, before tapering off as the low moves away. But we’ll remain unsettled into late week as a follow-up low moves just south of the region Friday and still upper level energy has to pull through the region on Saturday. Additional precipitation Friday would be in the form of rain, but as we get to Saturday, colder air filtering in would mean some areas would flip to snow showers before it dried out.

TODAY: Dense fog into mid morning eventually thins out and dissipates. Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 36-43. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy start – rain tapers off. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain possible. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Highs 40-47. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers through midday. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Dry end to 2023. Watch for potential unsettled weather from low pressure in the region around January 2. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Another storm threat possible around mid period with rain/snow chances. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Merry Christmas! A quiet holiday for those celebrating today with a light wind, lots of clouds, and areas of fog, especially to start the day. But it will be a precipitation-free day with generally fine conditions for local / regional travel. The quiet weather will continue through Tuesday. Then low pressure winding up through the Midwest will redevelop in the Mid Atlantic and move off our coast later Wednesday to early Thursday. Here, the air will be mild enough for this to be a rain event. This one will not be nearly as potent as the recent one. As this low moves away, upper level low pressure in the region will keep it somewhat unsettled into late week as well, but with a bit of a cool-down, so we may see snow showers in additional rain showers, depending on timing and location.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Areas of fog this morning. Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy start – rain tapers off. Lots of clouds, limited sun, and a passing rain shower possible afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. A rain or snow shower possible. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Upper level low pressure hangs around for the potential of a few rain and snow showers December 30. High pressure brings dry weather December 31. Watching for the approach of low pressure and a return to unsettled weather in the first couple days of the new year but there continues to be indications this system may be shunted to the south of the region with mostly dry weather here. Temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

Dry start. Storm threat may materialize mid to late period with rain/snow chances.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Quiet, mainly cloudy, and mild is the theme for Christmas Eve & Christmas Day. A weak disturbance moving slowly through the region will be responsible for the abundant cloudiness along with some isolated patches of rain. If it rains where you are, it won’t last long, but if it happens early today west of I-95, watch for some black ice on untreated surfaces as temperatures sit around freezing to start out the day. Any icing issues will be short lived though as the temperature goes up enough to end it. Some lower level moisture especially in coastal areas can result in low clouds, patchy fog, and a couple spots of drizzle through early Christmas morning. If Rudolph needs to use his nose to help Santa tonight, it will be due to fog patches, not snowy weather. None of that around this time for the holiday! Looking ahead, a milder southerly air flow kicks in Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure slides over the region early then offshore. Clouds likely stay somewhat dominant on Tuesday though. When we get to midweek, we’ll be dealing with a larger scale low pressure system. Initially this storm matures and occludes out in the Midwest, and its energy stretches out and weakens as it moves east and northeast, but a redevelopment of the low will likely bring a slug of rain with mild air in place during Wednesday. By Thursday, this is moving beyond our region and we turn slightly colder, with a few rain/snow showers possible as upper level low pressure drifts over the region.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Patchy coastal drizzle and fog. Highs 39-46. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Patchy coastal drizzle and fog. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A rain or snow shower possible. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start but may fall slightly during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Upper level low pressure may produce a few rain/snow showers December 29. Fair weather with high pressure in control December 30-31. Watching for the approach of low pressure and a return to unsettled weather in the first couple days of the new year but some indications are for this system to be kept to the south with more dry weather here. Temperatures above to near normal with a general cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

General trend is for a more seasonably chilly pattern but with storminess kept to the south, at least until late in the period when a precipitation threat is possible.