DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)

A blocking pattern will be in control of our weather for the foreseeable future. This pattern features high pressure at upper levels over Greenland extending into eastern Canada, and for this period of time will thwart storm systems from fully impacting our region. Surface high pressure in eastern Canada provides fair and chilly weather today. Two low pressure systems make runs at the Northeast from the west during the course of the weekend. The first will fall apart well to our west sending only high and mid level clouds into our region Saturday as some lower clouds also move in from the ocean due to a northeasterly air flow at the surface. The second low will have slightly more success getting far enough east to give us a heavier overcast and its snow shield will be pushing into the region Sunday evening while it is running into the high and drying up. Net result – minor snow event, favoring western portions of the WHW forecast area, i.e. southwestern NH through central MA to eastern CT. With milder air in place, any of this that reaches the South Coast region would probably be at least mixed with if not all rain – but very light amounts would occur either way. High pressure regains control of the weather early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, except rain/mix along the coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Guidance: Until GFS is fixed, cannot rely on it for this period of time. Typical beyond-day-4 uncertainties applied to other guidance along with known biases. Blocking continues. The high pressure area will likely be elongated from southern Greenland through eastern Canada during this period, with an upper level trough over the US Midwest to Northeast. Watching the December 15-17 window for a storm chance. Again guidance solutions (ensembles) are very wide-ranging with this system telling us there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the outcome for this area. My current idea is that we see a low pressure area that will head toward the Great Lakes initially but unable to continues, therefore undergoing some kind of redevelopment / east southeast movement. Questions to be answered include what type / variety of precipitation if we get direct impact, or does it end up moving so far south we get skirted or even missed? Fair, colder weather returns for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Blocking pattern expected to continue. Early hints are upper high pressure scoots back toward Greenland with another upper high in western Canada. In between is the trough position with disturbances dropping out of Canada, through the Great Lakes and Northeast. Again remember that with guidance uncertainties and the typical “too far in the future for details” applied that we can’t have any kind of high confidence on day-to-day details, but the idea is a chilly pattern with a couple opportunities for precipitation – probably favoring snow over rain. But we have a long way to go to fine-tune this pre-Christmas period of time everybody will be paying close attention to.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)

A much-talked-about blocking pattern will control our weather in the days ahead. While often there is an assumption that blocking means we are in for days of unsettled weather (perhaps cold and snow in winter, overcast with rain and drizzle in spring), this is not necessarily the case. The resultant weather in any given location comes down to the details of the block and where systems are located and how they move. It’s complex. Focusing on this particular 5-day period, we find that mostly dry weather will be in control with Canadian high pressure centered to our north. Disturbances will be generally passing to our south, but one will make a more solid run at us later in the weekend, likely to be thwarted by the high to the north – the result being that it will have only minimal impact on us. Nevertheless, it’s worth watching closely because a slightly weaker high and/or a slightly stronger low and the results could be more significant.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, except rain/mix along the coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Blocking pattern continues. One storm threat comes mid to late period – timing and precipitation type uncertain. Details to be worked out. Temperatures variable – averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Blocking pattern expected to continue. Obviously low confidence but one or two systems may bring some precipitation to the region during this period. Temperatures variable – averaging near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A complex blocking pattern is taking shape and will have direct impact on our weather in the days ahead. First, a slow-moving trough and frontal system being slowed by a large high pressure area near Greenland will give us wet and mild weather today before a cold front pushes through, and Canadian high pressure brings dry, slightly colder weather for late week. The weekend has been carrying some uncertainty in its outlook for a few days now and this continues. We’ll have a large high pressure area extending across eastern Canada while low pressure sits off to our south, drifting to the east. The question is how close does this low come to us, and how much does the air flow between the low to the south and the high to the north add moisture to our weather to increase the chance of unsettled weather. Guidance, some of which is very unreliable, continues to vary on this. I continue to lean toward a lot of clouds, but mostly precipitation-free weather for the weekend at this time, but will continue to keep an eye on it for changes.

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

It’s important to keep in mind that this continues to be a low confidence outlook with a complex blocking pattern and uncertain guidance performance. There are 2 potential storm systems that can impact the region with some kind of precipitation during this period. Temperatures may be variable but should average close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Low confidence but anticipating a blocking pattern will be continuing with near to below normal temperatures and at least one threat of precipitation. As previously stated, there will be a lot of monitoring and clarification needed as we go through time.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

A developing blocking pattern will slow weather systems down, and this will be evident as we enter a 2-day stretch of unsettled weather from a system, that in a progressive pattern, could pass through in a matter of hours. First a warm front approaches today, clouds take over, but rain holds back until sometime this evening across most areas, then we get into frequently wet weather through a good portion of Wednesday as first a warm front passes, then a cold front approaches.. As low pressure drifts north of our region, the cold front will finally move through Wednesday night and into the early hours of Thursday. For Thursday’s daytime through Friday, high pressure from Canada will nose into our region with dry weather. While this is going on, the next low pressure area will be heading in this direction via the Midwest, but it’s also going to be a slow mover, and may be pushed far enough south so that we only see its cloudiness for the start of the weekend, but its precipitation stays out of our region. Not a high confidence portion of the forecast still, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on it.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Expecting blocking to continue but still not totally clear on how it impacts our weather directly. Current feeling is low pressure is held to the south for the most part, but occasional clouds and a touch of unsettled weather on the northern edge of an initial system may get in here early in the period and a better chance of getting a larger impact system in comes later in the period – but don’t take this as a guarantee of anything specific. There remains a lot of questions about the pattern and what it results in here. One extremely broken main piece of computer guidance (recent GFS model “upgrade”) is not going to help figure anything out either.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Continued expectation that at least some form of a blocking pattern will continue and the trend is seasonably cool with a slightly increased for an episode of wintry weather in here somewhere, otherwise a mainly dry pattern. Much fine-tuning to come (you’ll hear this for a while, yet).

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

An area of high pressure slides offshore to our east today but we’ll have a nice early December day, and then things shift in an unsettled direction. This takes place as a frontal boundary heads our way from the west, but fairly slowly. Its parent low pressure area, passing to our north later Tuesday through Wednesday, will be slowing down in response to a developing blocking pattern in the atmosphere, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. By Thursday and Friday, the frontal boundary will have pushed offshore and Canadian high pressure will poke in enough to dry us out, along with cooler, but not-too-cold weather. Some guidance brings wet weather right back in as early as Friday, but I’m leaning away from this idea right now in favor of high pressure holding it off to our south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

What we do know: The weather will be driven by a blocking pattern. What’s more uncertain: How the pieces in the atmosphere work together to give us our day-to-day weather. For now, I lean toward high pressure to the north of us being just strong enough to largely hold off a couple lows to our south at first, then giving way to the low pressure at some point later in the period. A low confidence outlook here is for mostly dry weather for the weekend of December 10-11 but maybe with lots of clouds around at times, then a cloudier and potentially wetter (maybe some frozen precipitation too) weather early next week. Obviously lots of fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-20)

Expecting the Greenland block to drive the overall pattern, but what is not certain is exact position of features and strength of the block, so the range of possibilities with our weather is rather wide. Also the ability to drive pure cold air right into our region may be somewhat limited by the set-up, so temperatures may hang closer to normal rather than falling below normal. For now leaning toward a drier pattern overall but having to watch storminess making runs at the region.

Updated C-19 chat post for this week…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

High pressure brings fair weather today but there will be a gusty breeze as the high center is off to the south a little and low pressure sits over eastern Canada. The high moves off to the east Monday, another fair weather day with a bit milder air. The next low pressure area, tracking north of our region toward midweek, drags a frontal boundary toward us later Tuesday and Wednesday, but it takes its time, and we get a mild southerly air flow along with unsettled weather as a result. Right now, cautious optimism leads to a forecast of drier and slightly cooler weather on Thursday as the front pushes through and Canadian high pressure noses into the region.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain developing in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Blocking pattern is expected, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. At the same time there will be some persistence of a ridge in the southeastern US. This pattern likely means a stretch of unsettled weather as we’re caught between as disturbances try to pass through the weakness between highs. For this period, it looks like any precipitation will more likely be in the form of liquid than frozen as it may be hard to establish cold in the region, but this is not a certainty as this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Greenland block drives the pattern. A lot of uncertainty here with indications, based on the position of the block, that we can see storms pushed to our south ranging all the way to ones that try cutting through the Great Lakes. I think the take-away for the moment is unsettled but not overly so, and variable temperatures, with a lot to work out in the days ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Low pressure moving east northeastward across southeastern Canada will drag a frontal boundary through our region by this evening, with a round of rain showers ahead of it and another along it – so an unsettled Saturday. Fair weather returns with high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday before the next system from the west brings more unsettled weather in the form of rainfall as mild air dominates Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an area of rain crossing the region from west to east, then variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and one more passing rain shower early evening, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 36-43. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

The pattern will transition into a blocking set-up, driven by high pressure in the Greenland region. We will be near additional unsettled weather systems as this transition takes place but it’s hard to tell which days will feature more clouds and unsettled weather at this point. Fine-tuning to come. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Greenland block drives the pattern. We will have to watch for any retrogression of the pattern too as time goes along. Initially we are cold and mostly dry but may have a close call from a system passing to the south early in the period and a better chance of some type of precipitation event later in the period. There are also trends on some recent guidance that the magnitude of the cold may not be quite that grand – more of a near to below normal style chill. Monitoring in progress – clarification to come ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

High pressure provides nice weather today. Low pressure cuts through the Great Lakes and sends a frontal boundary our way with a couple rounds of rain showers, gusty wind, and mild air for Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air and a return to dry weather with a gusty breeze for Sunday. And the cycle continues as we have fair weather Monday and another frontal system approaching from the west Tuesday, though this one may be a little slower in arriving as we will start to see things slowing down in the atmosphere – the first signal of a pattern change that is coming up…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an area of rain crossing the region from west to east, then variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and one more passing rain shower early evening, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

The pattern will transition into a blocking set-up, driven by high pressure in the Greenland region. This will first slow the system coming through early in the period down enough so that unsettled weather with some rain shower activity will be around to start this period, and then a minor system with snow showers around mid period is possible as we trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Greenland block drives the pattern. We will have to watch for any retrogression of the pattern too as time goes along. Initially we are cold and mostly dry but may have a close call from a system passing to the south early in the period and a better chance of some type of precipitation event later in the period. Can bring these things into better focus over time. In the mean time you can look at run-to-run models for entertainment. 😉

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Hello December! The first month of Meteorological Winter and the final month of 2022. This is where we complete our transition from late autumn to early winter, and of course move through the heart of the holiday season. If it hasn’t snowed yet, people look forward to the first one with a variety of emotions ranging from dread to child-like anticipation. Whatever your persuasion, what I can tell you is that you’re not seeing it in the next 5 days. There will be changes in the weather during this period, but the pattern is not the “snowy” type, with a storm track that’s through the Great Lakes. Typical La Nina / Southeast Ridge pattern as a basis, but its days are numbered. We’ll get to that. In the mean time, it’s more of the same. Today, behind yesterday’s gusty and mild rain event, we get a shot of appropriately seasonably chilly weather to open the month, along with lots of wind, but it will be dry, save for the remote chance of a snow flurry reaching our northwesterly hilly terrain if surviving the trip all the way from the Great Lakes. The wind will settle down tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes, and high pressure building closer to the region Friday will give us a nice early December day. The next low pressure area will be wasting no time on its trek here, and again with its low tracking well to our northwest, we’ll be on its warmer side for Saturday. This system, while potent in its own right, is not going to be as strong as its predecessor, and while Saturday will be “unsettled” with a couple rounds of rain showers, it may not be that bad a day either, as we may end up seeing more of a sun/cloud interval set-up rather than a solid overcast. Behind that system, Sunday will be a dry, breezy, chilly day, similar to today but probably with not as much wind, and like Friday, Monday will see fair and more tranquil weather with high pressure moving into the region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief snow flurry may reach the Monadnocks of southwestern NH or the Worcester Hills of MA. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple rounds of rain showers are probable. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Next unsettled weather threat is around December 6-7 based on current expected timing. Odds highly favor a low track to our northwest and precipitation in the form of rain showers. This will come at the beginning of a pattern transition toward blocking, driven by high pressure over Greenland. The trend is for mostly dry but somewhat colder weather for the middle and end of this period with maybe a snow shower event somewhere during the transition.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Fairly confident of the pattern shift now to a Greenland high pressure block, strong enough to suppress a lot of moisture to our south and put us in a pattern of below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation with just a few snow showers from time to time with upper disturbances. Obviously no ability for day-to-day details at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

We’re in for a bit of a rough ride for this final day of November 2022. We don’t start out that way, with just a cloudy, chilly, raw start to the day. But as the day goes along an increasing southerly air flow ahead of an approaching front, parented by strong low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, will transport warmer air into our area, along with increasing wind and eventually plenty of rain shower activity. This gets underway during midday and afternoon from west to east, peaks early this evening, and winds down in the late evening hours from west to east. During peak time, wind gusts can be strong enough to result in some tree damage and power outages. The unseasonably mild air that is brought in ahead of the front will be replaced by a shot of cold air, with wind, as dry weather comes back for the opening day of December. Winds relax by Friday as high pressure moves in, with fair weather. Quickly-moving, the next system, taking a similar track will bring another round of cloudiness, mild air, and rain showers Saturday – timing to be nailed down, followed by a return to dry, breezy, cool weather Sunday. That system looks somewhat less potent than its predecessor.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers arrive west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Cloudy in the evening widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms, followed by breaking clouds and clearing overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH evening, strongest South Coast to South Shore, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief snow flurry may reach the Monadnocks of southwestern NH or the Worcester Hills of MA. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers early, followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Next unsettled weather threat is around December 6-7 based on current expected timing. Odds still favor a low track northwest of this region, but not highly confident of this yet. Temperatures still mostly above normal but may have a shot of colder air before the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Continuing to watch for a shift in the pattern but evolution may be fairly slow, putting us in the battle zone with additional unsettled weather threats, and variable temperatures. Will be a lot to work out and fine-tune regarding the forecast for this period of time.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

High pressure controls our weather today, keeping us dry and pleasant by late November standards, but it won’t be a day of 100% sunshine across the region. First, a little ocean moisture has resulted in some broken clouds a couple thousand feet above the surface and these have migrated into parts of eastern MA and southern NH as well, interrupting the early-day sun. These will hang around for a while before they diminish. Also, an increase in high level clouds will be gradually taking place from west to east as the day goes on, so our sun will be limited. Still, a nice late November day. Things change tonight as clouds thicken up and this leads to a windy and eventually wet Wednesday, albeit quite mild as we’ll have a southerly flow ahead of a cold front, parented from low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. The core of our wet weather in the form of widespread showers, and even potential thunder, will move in during the afternoon and exit during the evening. Once the front sweeps through, we’ll switch the wind and introduce a shot of chilly air with quite a bit of wind to open the month of December on Thursday, before things settle down on Friday as high pressure moves in. On yesterday’s update, my indication was that high pressure would hang on through Saturday with fair weather, but there’s some question about that now as the trend on the guidance has been to speed up the arrival and passage of the next system to that day. Although it does look like a fairly benign frontal passage with more clouds and wind shift activity than any meaningful precipitation – just a rain shower threat. I’ll keep an eye on this to see if I’ve jumped the gun on speeding up the timing, but for the moment plan on a slightly unsettled start to the first weekend of December.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 31-38. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day, most numerous and heaviest during the afternoon. Highs 50-57, occurring late in the day. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH by day’s end.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms, followed by breaking clouds and clearing overnight. Temperatures may spike in the 55-62 range early then falling to 40-47 overnight. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH evening, strongest South Coast to South Shore, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Based on current timing and pattern expectations we see one more system pass to our northwest through the Great Lakes around mid period. This would result in fair and milder weather early in the period here, an interruption of wet weather briefly, then a fair and cooler end to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Eyeing a pattern change in this period, triggered by a blocking high pressure ridge in the Greenland area. I don’t think this takes place like the flip of a switch but over a period of days and in these transitions we can see some unsettled weather – far too soon to determine liquid vs combo vs frozen. Door would be open for one or two such episodes as we head toward mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

We’ll be riding a temperature rollercoaster but with an overall mild pattern as we move from November to December during the coming days. First, behind a departing low that brought us some Sunday rainfall comes a trough and cold front with lots of clouds and maybe a rain shower for a portion of today before we start to clear out. While it will be on the mild side today expect a gusty wind, which will continue into tonight, transporting slightly colder air into the region. Tuesday is a fair weather day but cooler albeit with much less wind. And then while it warms up, the wind will be back along with the wet weather chance as the next system quickly moves in from the west on Wednesday, a frontal boundary from a low pressure area moving quickly through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. This exits later Wednesday night and December opens with 2 cooler days, a windy one on Thursday behind the departing low, and a more tranquil one on Friday as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower possible this morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers increasingly likely. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Breaking clouds / clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

High pressure brings fair weather December 3. The primary storm track, with a ridge of high pressure in the Southeast US, is likely to be Great Lakes to southeastern Canada. Two such systems are being watched for this period, one passing by with rain showers for our area on December 4 and another near the end of the period. Some guidance has had that end-of-period system as a little further south with a little more marginal temperatures here, but I’m staying with the milder scenario for now.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

I can’t say this with high confidence yet but a little bit of a shift toward colder may be underway during this period, but not without some battle between that and the mild air supplied by the Southeast US ridge. A little early to work out any details of unsettled weather – precipitation types – but take note that the pattern may be on the active side as we approach mid December.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Low pressure that was once temporarily stuck in the Texas area has decided it’s “time to fly” and will be moving rapidly northeastward toward our area today and moving through tonight with some wet weather accompanying its passage. A follow up area of energy will prolong the cloudiness and a rain shower chance into Monday morning, after which we see a return to fair weather with the departure of low pressure and approach / arrival of high pressure through Tuesday. But this won’t last too long either as the next storm system, a stronger low destined for a track through the Great Lakes and far southeastern Canada, drags a frontal boundary our way later Wednesday with more rain showers heading this way that day. All the while we’ll have a mild stretch to end November. December arrives Thursday and we should be watching that cold front fly offshore and a shot of drier, chilly air moving in at that time, with wind…

TODAY: Filtered to dimmed sunshine with lots of high clouds morning. Generally overcast afternoon – light rain chance increases west to east. Highs 49-56. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog forming. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Sunshine and passing clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 39-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening. Breaking clouds followed by clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

High pressure brings fair weather with seasonable temperatures December 2-3, then milder with a chance of rain showers December 4 as low pressure passes north of the region. Cooler air follows. Starting to watch for additional unsettled weather by the end of the period but it’s way out there so no details possible.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

This period should find us in a battle zone between the mild US Southeast and the colder Canada. Pattern looks a little more unsettled and variable in temperature during this time, as I have mentioned the previous couple blogs. Obviously looking out this far I cannot provide you with detailed guesses on any particular days / systems with that kind of set-up.