Thursday January 14 2021 Forecast (7:47AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A disturbance passing through the region today will result in a very minor precipitation event with a touch of rain and snow at times, but with surface temperatures above freezing, any snow that falls will not cause any issues. Drier weather moves back in tonight and Friday as a small area of high pressure noses into the region. A large area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region on Friday will send an occluding frontal system toward the East Coast late Friday into Saturday, on which a new low pressure area will form and bring some enhanced rainfall into the region to start the 3-day weekend. This will move out later Saturday and be followed by drier weather for Sunday before the energy associated with the original low pressure area comes across the region Monday, along with colder air, with the potential for some scattered snow shower activity on Dr. MLK Jr. Day.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain & snow likely. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thin out. Lows 29-36. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

We will still be under the influence of a blocking pattern and as has been the case for some time, anything beyond a few days is rather low confidence. So outside of knowing that the blocking pattern goes on, the day-to-day details are nearly impossible to even approach. Recent guidance has shown two potential storm systems, but I’d lean toward January 22-23 as being the “best” opportunity for a storm to impact the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Weakening and possible breaking down of the blocking pattern should begin during this period which may increase our risk for a couple of low pressure impacts as a southern storm track shifts a little bit more to the north. Still low confidence but feel this is the most likely scenario at this time.

38 thoughts on “Thursday January 14 2021 Forecast (7:47AM)”

  6. I find it humorous that yesterday I was writing about some ideas for winter 21-22 and I can’t come to agreement with myself on the 5 days in front. Truth is mid-term detail is often just as significant a challenge, but in a different way than broad long term pattern evolution. It is of course the actual weather impacts of that evolution that will forever be the trick to nailing those seasonal forecasts.

    Anyhow, I feel like a broken record. I have been for sure leaning toward a less snowy period since just prior to Christmas into January, but I do feel like a broken record. Opportunities for some snow within a day or so of 1/5, then 1/8, then 1/12, then 1/15, then 1/22. See a pattern here? Now I think I am leaning away from broad winter precipitation impacts for SNE on 1/22 as well and then next reasonable potential opportunity may come 1/28. Not long after that, I do believe we will see some further impacts of the South East Ridge, so there is a needle being threaded here.

    1. I couldn’t thread a needle if my life depended on it.

      It will be what it will be and not much we can do about it.

      But you guys are the best at figuring out what it will be.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Radar says it is snowing, but alas, it is not reaching the ground, at least not yet. 🙂

  8. Watching snow fall is so peaceful. It sounds boring, like watching paint dry, but it’s seriously one of my favorite things to do.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK!
    Snowing here now with a sugar coating on everything. Looks nice and we’ll take what we can get at this point.

  11. Thanks TK, and JMA as well.

    Looking like a pretty solid rain event Friday night into Saturday, a quick 1-2″ for a lot of SNE. Pretty strong wind profiles aloft as well, but unlike with the Christmas storm this should be a case where the low level stability is more than strong enough to keep most of that wind from reaching the surface.

    Another several days of mainly quiet weather after that, and still very little confidence as to what happens by the end of next week and beyond.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    It’s rare in January to see such temperature uniformity across the entire Lower 48. Basically 40-60 everywhere. No real cold anywhere. It’s been that way for a while. Dandelions are popping up in places. Highly unusual for January.

    If the SE ridge sets up shop in February I think we’ll be looking at record warmth some days. There is no snow cover. Ground is soft.

    Could this turn out to be even more of a non-winter than 2011-2012? Could be. Time will tell. I realize we had the one major snow event in December, and so we will have more snow than 2011-2012. But other than that winter’s been a no-show, particularly in the temperature department. At least in January 2012 we had a short-lived Arctic outbreak, with the temperature dipping to 9F in Boston. I don’t see that happening at all in the near or long-term.

    1. If we don’t get much more snow between now and March, Logan and probably most of SNE will have well below normal snowfall 3 winters in a row.

      Hopefully 2021-22 will stop the streak.

      Remember, we were warned by Mother Nature (in a sense) back on 10/30/20.

  16. Thanks TK
    CMC GFS and EURO all showing snow next Friday. Too bad it’s way out there and not the day before this was projected to happen.

    1. Basically, the air mass has been stagnant for so long that it’s become degraded in air quality due to a trapping and piling up of pollutants. No wind, fronts, weather systems, etc. to stir it up. Something we deal with more often in summer. It’s actually worse down here where I am. Southeast Pennsylvania is under an Air Quality Alert, but even here on the NJ side it is noticeably bad. The sky the past two days has been reminiscent of a typical 90 degree day in July. The upcoming rain event will be much welcome to alleviate this.

      1. That is exactly right. We do see it in winter once in a while, but it’s far more common during the summer & early autumn.

      2. Ahhhh. I thought it was the cat who spent most of the day down here with me. Good. I hate banishing him to upstairs since he is great company

  20. Today will make 24 in a row above average in Boston. 30 looks like a sure bet. 40? Probably runs out of steam before then but we’ll see…

      1. I’d say it’s about a coin flip chance or slightly worse that the streak survives through next weekend, but unlikely through the end of that following week.

  22. Pete Bouchard on Twitter last hour…. Next week features a storm…likely of a frozen nature Thu-Fri. Then some sharply colder air. Winter ain’t ova, folks.

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