Wednesday March 17 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)

March will be up to its antics the next few days, but first we have a pleasant St. Patrick’s Day today as high pressure finishes its job of obliterating low pressure that was trying to move into the region. But this high will give way to the next low pressure area which will be more moisture-filled, although not necessarily a strong storm itself. Its large area of moisture will be in the process of stringing itself out and moving rather quickly from west to east while the low pressure elongation passes south of New England early Friday. The moisture associated with it will be expansive enough that we get into it, with mild air in place so it starts as a rain event everywhere. But as previously stated, we were to be near the boundary of much colder air, and that boundary slips to the south and allows the cold air in, turning this to a snow event before it’s over. No, it’s not going to be a big snowstorm, but it will be the type of event that can have some impact more on visibility than actual road conditions as we will flipped over to snow (north to south) in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, and will still be snowing at commute time. With mild air and rain at first, the roads will not be primed to allow accumulating snow, but to fight against it, and with temperatures probably staying just above to right around freezing, road icing will also not be an issue when combined with the “warmer” pavement anyway. Most of our snow accumulation (which will be noted below) will be on unpaved surfaces (grass, dirt, sand, car tops, etc.). And then, just like that, it’s all gone. The precipitation moves out, maybe leaving behind a few lingering flurries as a colder northerly wind strengthens, but we’ll have enough solar radiation even if clouds hang in for a while on Friday to pretty much eliminate any snow that fell by day’s end. After a breezy and cold Friday night, and a continued breezy and chilly but dry Saturday, the back half of the weekend will remain dry with a temperature moderation. With the vernal equinox at 5:37 a.m. Saturday marking the official start of spring, we’ll have quite a nice first weekend of the new season.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start across south central MA, RI, and eastern CT, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing late-day west to east. Highs 50-57 except 45-50 South Coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to snow from north to south. Lows 25-32. Wind variable becoming NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow tapering to snow showers morning. Total snowfall accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches, mostly on unpaved surfaces. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, but cooler eastern coastal areas. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)

High pressure parks off to the south of New England with fair and milder weather early in the period. A frontal system comes through mid period with a chance of some rainfall, followed by fair but somewhat colder weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)

Cool start to the period, then moderating temperatures with some unsettled weather during the transition. May turn chilly again right at month’s end as more Canadian cold slips into the Northeast.

44 thoughts on “Wednesday March 17 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Saint Patrick’s Day.

    Irish soda bread for breakfast and Reubens for dinner.

    1. That’s why you don’t take the bait so early . Need everything to go right for late season snowfall . Any snowfall maps posted yesterday ( not here ) were in my opinion irresponsible.

    1. There are many incredible videos taken of that tornado in Tuscaloosa on YouTube. One of the beautiful things from that tragedy in its aftermath was when the Auburn football team came by bus to help out the city and U-Alabama campus of their eternal football rivals, the Crimson Tide.

      JimmyJames, who do you have winning March Madness?

  11. Two rivals on the grid iron and were all on the same team that day. That was so great to see.
    I have Illinois winning it beating Gonzaga in the Championship.

  13. I have Texas Baylor Gonzaga and Illinois as my final four.
    My upsets in the first round Georgetown over Colorado Winthrop over Villanova and Michigan St who will beat UCLA in the play game then go on to upset BYU.

    1. Should be a very minimal event at best . I’m sure we’ll need to be on site to monitor it . I think I live here now .

  18. Part of this morning’s NWS dicussion:

    Upshot is we are nudging totals up a bit, generally 1-3″ across most
    of SNE, but we can`t rule out having to go a bit higher (3-5″) in
    later forecasts for some areas as these issues start to become
    better resolved. Most of the accumulation should be on the grass,
    with some slush possible on roadways, but we don`t see much of an
    impact for the Friday AM commute right now (aside from having to
    clear some snow from your vehicle before heading out and perhaps
    some slow traffic due to wet/slushy roads).

    Whole discussion:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

  19. Unrelated to weather:

    I received my $1400 stimulus via Direct Deposit today! 🙂

    Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

    1. Thanks Dr. so if it doesn’t accumulate on pavement, does anyone want to drop a truckload in our driveway so SIL can use new snowblower.

      2. Your SIL will have to wait at least another 9 months to get any good use out of it. Sorry Vicki…until next snow season. 🙂

        TK has hinted that next winter will be above normal, maybe even well above? 😉

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