Saturday April 17 2021 Forecast (7:59AM)

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COMMENTARY

My brother was a mixture of frustrated and amused when relaying the story to my mother yesterday, who then relayed it to me. What story? Oh, it’s about something that happens far too often. In this case it was a couple of Boston sports radio hosts having basically an on air melt-down. Did the Bruins lose a game they should have won? No. Did the Red Sox lose one game after a nine game winning streak? No. We all know that would be enough to cause a freak-out in sports radio hosts, but no, that was not it. Did they disagree with a move made by the Patriots? No. Do they think we need more coverage of the World Ping Pong championships? That would be cool, in my opinion, but no, it was not that. In fact, it had nothing at all to do with sports. Then what on earth were they going nuts about? It wasn’t anything really on earth, but what was falling TO earth, from the sky, or more specifically, from the clouds. Snow. In April. Wait, WHAT? SNOW? IN APRIL? How can that be?! It’s SPRINGTIME. It doesn’t snow in the spring here! I mean it’s supposed to be sunny and warm day after day after day with multitudes of flowers, chirping birds, and a gentle breeze that just makes you want to grab a picnic blanket and spread it out in the field. (Just remember to check for ticks after.) I didn’t hear it myself, but the sports radio host overreaction was common across our area yesterday. It was snowing, in mid April, in New England – SOUTHERN New England even! I mean that’s never happened in April before, has it? Not if you don’t count last year’s minor snowfall over interior southern New England on the SAME date last year, followed immediately by a snowfall ranging from about 1 to 6 inches on April 17 & 18, yup, LAST YEAR too. And as long as you don’t count the multitudes of times it’s snowed in Aprils previous, maybe because it’s actually kind of a normal thing here in the northeastern US. But how does that seem to be a forgotten thing by so many year after year after year? I’ve never understood it, nor will I. Even Boston’s Logan Airport, where “official” records for the city are gathered, sitting right out there in the water, averages 1.9 inch of snow in April, nearly 2 inches. Now this doesn’t mean nearly 2 inches of snow falls there every April. There are plenty of Aprils that this location does not see any measurable snowfall. However, they have seen measurable in 6 out of the last 9 Aprils. A little stat searching and logic will tell you that the average is influenced by a couple of stand-out April events during the 30 year period used to calculate the average, most obviously their dumping of 25.4 inches on April 1-2 1997 during the “April Fools Blizzard”, and a significant storm of 6.9 inches during a snowy April in 1996. But even without these, the fact that 2/3 of the time in the last 9 years they have had measurable snow in the month of April at the airport should tell you that April snow is NOT uncommon at all. Obviously it’s not as common as snowfall in January or February, or even March, but let’s be realistic here, those are winter months. Of course it’s going to snow more frequently. It just needs to be understood that because we change seasons to spring, it doesn’t mean that snow suddenly can’t exist anymore. And most of the time in the city (especially at the airport) they are minor events. In case you are wondering if Boston has seen any other major snowstorms besides the 2 mentioned above, they have. On April 6-7 1893, they saw 7.9 inches, on April 9-10 1917, 9.1 inches fell, and a remarkable “fluffy” snowstorm of 13.3 inches occurred on April 6-7 1982, with temperatures never getting above the 20s during and for about 24 hours after the event. So yes, the “big” April ones may be somewhat rare, but snow in April is not rare at all. So let’s take this somewhere else now. My journey through social media and my in-person day yesterday was punctuated with dozens of declarations of anger, disbelief, and borderline despair, about snow. In April. Wait what?! SNOW? Ok I won’t go through that again – you get the gist of it all by now. I’m not telling anybody that they have to enjoy snow. We all have our likes and dislikes, even about things we have absolutely no control over, like weather. I realize I am a bit of an odd duck because I don’t have any weather I dislike. But that aside, let’s take a look at some positives about this latest round of “winter in spring” a.k.a. April snow. I realize that as much as 6 to 11 inches fell in the highest elevations of central Massachusetts and nearby New Hampshire, and that definitely required some removal (shoveling, plowing, etc.), but we were lucky here since trees are not leafed out yet, so while some of the older trees & their limbs did suffer some damage, we avoided widespread damage and resultant power outages. For the vast majority of the region, including metro areas of Boston & Providence, it was a snowfall that would quickly remove itself after falling, as the combination of warmer ground and higher sun angle (even through the clouds) would help the melting process. What else good? Plenty… Temperatures stayed above freezing overnight even though rain & some additional mix/snow fell, so we did not have to deal with a freeze-up. Hey, that’s a plus! And you may or may not have heard me mention that much of the area is running a 4 to 6 inch precipitation deficit just since the start of 2021, and that abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions were covering pretty much all of New England. This storm system delivered generally 1 to 2 1/2 inches of beneficial total precipitation, maybe not enough to wipe out the deficit, but certainly taking a nice bite out of it. The portion that fell as snow ends up even more beneficial. As it melts into the unfrozen ground it fell on, it’s nicely absorbed, effectively acting as a longer lasting beneficial rainfall. Snow is also somewhat of a stimulant for new blooms on trees and in gardens, and will give the trees a boost for leaf out. As somebody who grew up with allergies, I know there’s a down side to this time of year: tree pollen. That’s inevitable, and just something we have to deal with. But wait, as a bonus for getting through this entire commentary, I remind you that yesterday’s rain and snow cleansed the air of pollen! So that will give allergy sufferers a break too, at least for a day and a half. But that’s better than no break at all, isn’t it? Enjoy the weekend! Stay safe!

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

Our April storm that brought rain & snow to the region yesterday is still swirling about offshore to the east of New England this morning, and will take its time moving away from the region during this weekend. And while today will still be wet at times with rain showers and drizzle spiraling back at us from the offshore low, we will see improvement for Sunday. Although as previously mentioned we still have a bit of a disturbance to come through, so don’t expect complete clearing and we will still carry the chance of a passing shower. So not the best weekend, but certainly not the worst. Looking for a warm-up? It’s coming for the beginning of the week when we get into a southwesterly air flow aloft. First, a warm front has to sneak through the region, and it will do so early Monday with some cloudiness, though I think any rain associated with the front should stay to the north. Once that gets by it’s going to be quite nice right through Tuesday. There are locations that received enough snow to shovel yesterday that may break 70 degrees on Tuesday. Once again, that’s spring in New England. And staying on that topic, you know not to get used to that warm up, right? Good! Because a strong cold front is going to approach and cross the region Wednesday, bringing our next chance of wet weather in the form of rain showers, maybe even a thunderstorm risk. And while the day is likely to be mild, depending on the front’s timing, it may be feeling quite a bit colder by that night…

TODAY: Cloudy morning with occasional drizzle and some rain showers, especially NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds morning. More sun afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

Windy, colder for Earth Day April 22 and a disturbance may bring rain and/or snow showers. Cool, less windy, but dry April 23. Low pressure brings a rain chance at mid period followed by drying but cooler again late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

For now looking at a west to east (zonal) flow pattern with a tendency for a trough in the Northeast and keeping us on the cooler but mostly dry side. However some added pattern volatility may come from the interaction of a powerful Western Pacific typhoon as it re-curves and enters the northern hemisphere jet stream. For the record, this is not unusual – it just doesn’t happen all that frequently.

50 thoughts on “Saturday April 17 2021 Forecast (7:59AM)”

  1. Thanks TK for those April snow stats! As for those sports radio hosts, most likely they all certainly grew up in NE and “should” know the type of weather that can occur sometimes. It’s not like they are originally from the Deep South or the West Coast and transplanted here to become Boston sports fans.

    You can keep the World Ping Pong Championship. Soccer is booooring enough. 😉

    2. Actually I don’t follow ping pong, but it’s interesting to watch sometimes. I’m an olympics junkie so I get my fill every 4 years (well, 5 this time haha).

    1. We’ll be seeing more of this in the years ahead of us, but a little less so in the spring and a little more so in the autumn. However, this time it is a springtime chill-down.

      I’m far from convinced Boston can’t surpass NY and break the snowfall tie. All they need is 0.1 inch. 🙂

  5. JPD, I am not buying that 0.1 at Logan hardly represents most of Boston neighborhoods. Did you measure or at least estimate in your backyard?

    When I came home from work yesterday there was a decent amount of slush on my steps, considering it’s April. Most rooftops were still snow covered in my neighborhood as well.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK. Great discussion! Excellent.

    Growing up, I remember that we had measurable snow it almost every April. Of course not every, but many, many of them. Also, this was out in Millis, 21 miles from downtown Boston.

    I remember a late April snow while I was attending Northeastern in Boston. I was sitting in a class room, paying no attention to the professor, but rather watching a heavy wet snow falling from the sky. I my memory serves me correctly, it was April 24th.

    I don’t remember the exact amount, but When I got home to Millis later that day, it had accumulated about 6 inches or so.
    It was probably 1966, 67 or 68.

    And we best not forget May 9-10 1977.

    1. Did the professor call on you, and you responded with the typical “deer in the headlights” glazed look mode? Lol. 😀

      It’s usually more typical in K-12 but I’ve seen it in college as well. Experienced myself on rare occasion. 😉

        1. I very rarely came up with anything remotely close to the right answer, if I had anything at all. Of course I usually made up for it on the next exam. 🙂

  9. Raining here again. The snow might have messed up the rain gauge, but it is showing 3.45 inches for the entire storm.

    1. Logan received 1.60 inches yesterday. Don’t know how much they got Thursday evening through midnight Friday.

      At least the next Drought Monitor map should be clear of those yellowish colors.

  11. Thank you, TK. Interesting read. I guess I wasn’t surprised by comments yesterday. I ended up focusing on the few positive comments. I was pleased to see a good number of folks say we need the precipitation, including my brother who had a nasty early morning ride from NH to bring his wife to Brigham.

    My favorite was a person in Sutton who said it is fairy dust from Mother Nature.

    From one odd duck to another I’m just happy being here where I can enjoy what the day brings. Personally, It would be an awful waste of my day to complain about nature rather than enjoy its beauty.

  12. Don’t forget April 27-28 1987 in which Boston officially received 4.1 inches. That is impressive for the last remaining days of April, and at Logan NO LESS!

    1. I had 10.5 inches out of the 4-28-1987 event. Ended on the morning of 4-29. By the end of the day, most of the snow was gone. I still remember clumps of slushy snow falling out of leafed-out trees.

        1. If I remember correctly, Worcester had around 20 inches. That city puts Denver and Minneapolis etc. to shame in terms of snowfall.

          Wasn’t yesterday’s total a record for their date?

          1. Yes, Worcester does put those cities to shame, relatively speaking. Who knew?

            Worcester = 64.1
            Minneapolis = 54.4
            Denver = 53.5

    1. How do you know we won’t have any cold air? Still aways away. Even so, too much hugging of the coast.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Still in awe over that historic, once in a lifetime April snowstorm yesterday. Took many pictures so I can one day tell my grandchildren I lived through this rare anomalous event!

    1. Well, it paled in comparison to the April fools blizzard
      of 1997 and the April 6, 1982 powder blizzard. 🙂

  15. All joking aside, Mount Snow ended up receiving 20” of snow at the summit which is impressive! Will be a great last weekend of skiing there. Killington got 13” and is back up to 51 trails open.

    It’s a beautiful day for softball where I am right now in Smithfield RI (not). The landscape was still snow covered for about half the drive over here. Deepest snowcover encountered was in N Foster RI just over the CT line around Jerimoth Hill which is the high point of RI.

      1. There’s a tiny green sign on the side of Rte 101 indicating the high point and a RIDOT weather station on the side of the road. A rather anti-climatic spot to say the least 🙂

                1. It’s in July. I don’t have our schedule in front of me but the tournament website says Whiten Elementary School.

  16. at the community college I was at during the start of my college career, I helped form the ping pong team.

    1. I loved ping pong, but I prefer the name table tennis.

      Used to play between classes all of the time in college. Some players could really put some incredible spins on the balls. I learned a few things, for sure. I am taller, so I always loved to use the over hand smash move to score a point. I used to play goalie in Hockey (Not for the College team) and playing table tennis was a great exercise to keep my reflexes sharp.

      For a time, I had my own table at my house.

      1. We have a table in the basement. But with son in laws Business the area was taken over. Hopefully, there will be room soon. I enjoy playing ping tennis ;

      2. I was nick named the corner sneaker as I could hit the corners in such a way that it was almost impossible for people to hit it back by the time they realized it was happening.

  17. Mark, Whitins is the middle school. I knew one of the girls went there but had to ask. Too many schools for me to remember. It is right by where Dr Stupid went for his vaccine and maybe five minutes from here

    1. Google maps and the tournament website show it as “Whitins Elementary School” at 120 Granite Street in Uxbridge. Maybe there are two schools with that name?

      1. Found the website, it says “intermediate school” and it has grades 4-7. That’s odd. Sort of a cross between and elementary and middle school.

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