Friday June 4 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

A weakening cold front / trough will move through the region today. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be initiated by this system combined with humidity in place and daytime heating, with most likely a broken line of convective activity forming somewhere in southern NH and central MA early this afternoon then progressing southeastward with time. Before that, some shower activity is also possible again near the South Coast where there is also more low cloudiness and fog in place due to higher dew point air in that region. The rest of the region does get into higher humidity today as well as the trough / front moves through. The shower and potential thunderstorm activity that it generates will be non-severe, but a few of them can produce brief heavy downpours and short-lived bursts of gusty wind, so be on the look-out for that especially if traveling. Tonight, any remaining activity diminishes as it moves across the South Coast region, which may still be mired in some low clouds and fog, and with temperatures falling a bit to meet the still relatively high dew points this evening we may see areas of fog forming elsewhere in the region before finally some drier air arrives from the west toward morning to clear it all out. At most we may see some lingering cloudiness around early Saturday, otherwise the sun will take over as high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and this pattern strengthens during the weekend into early next week bringing much of the region its first heat wave of the season (heat wave being defined as 3 or more days with a high temperature of 90 or higher). There will be exceptions, most especially the South Coast, where a southwesterly component to the air flow is off the water and will keep it cooler there. There are a few land protrusions along the East Coast of MA that may also fail to reach 90 on one or more of these days for the same reason, but in general, the heat will be on for most during this time. There will be a frontal boundary not all that far to the north of the region at times, especially Sunday, and then after being pushed northward Monday it approaches again later Tuesday, but for now the expectation is this boundary will stay far enough north to have no impact on the weather here.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Chance of showers South Coast through midday. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms southern NH / central MA early afternoon through eastern MA / northeastern CT / RI later afternoon. Highs 73-80. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers South Coast region evening. Areas of fog, especially evening. Lows 58-65. Humid evening – dew point 60+, then drying overnight with dew point falling into 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds especially southern and eastern areas then sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point under 60. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. A few fog patches inland lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Upper level high pressure ridge axis shift westward enough to allow a cold front down from eastern Canada which may bring clouds and a shower at some point June 9 but mainly a cool-down back to the upper 70s and 80s. This boundary won’t be that far to the south and may allow some disturbances to ride along it producing at least some cloudiness at times and potential a few threats for shower activity in the region June 10-11 while we’re on its cooler side before it may lift back to the north and put us on the warmer / humid side with a shower or t-storm risk June 12-13. Don’t interpret this as a wet and cloudy pattern, just some activity to follow with the frontal system in the vicinity.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats from passing disturbances, but dry weather most of the time.

57 thoughts on “Friday June 4 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. Pretty hot forecast. I hit the thumbs down button. ACs going in today!

  3. “The air temperature is 70 which is very muggy..
    This is the beginning of a warm front which will really get underway tomorrow.”

    I’ve written to WBZ about this issue a couple of times already and have received zero response.

    1. PATHETIC!!!!

      How about: the dew point is 64, so it is somewhat muggy out today. Dew points will be on the rise over the weekend, so
      it will feel even more muggy and perhaps even oppressive.

    2. Its tough …… on the one hand, the program directors probably want some conversation style transition between the news person and weather person. They probably don´t want the news person having the transition be, ¨and now to John with the weather¨

      Problem is, without weather knowledge, you get today´s statement and the one yesterday about the tropical humidity while the dps were in the 50s.

      I give Mets credit, I haven´t very often heard them try to set up the next news story in the transition back to the news anchor.

        1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Well, I wonder if the sensationalism of the news and weather tends to cause some of these over the top statements.

          I forget which, but one of the local stations yesterday had hot-hot-hot for their on screen visual as the news anchor was making the transition to the meteorologist for the first presentation of the late afternoon broadcast.

    3. We know a good deal of this comes as directives from the top. If this is WBZ radio, I can’t recall a time when I paid its weather forecasts much attention.

  4. Hmmm

    Harvey has Boston’s high for today at 80, while TK has
    73-80 across the WHW area.

    It’s currently 73 at Logan. 71 here in JP.

    I am thinking that perhaps we over achieve today with a high
    somewhere in the 82-84 degree range. Will be interesting to see what unfolds.

    Let’s see if Boston gets a Thunder storm. Hope so, but I remain skeptical.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    DP sat at 66 yesterday. Temp was 70-72. It is the first time in my memory that I turned the AC on with a temp that low. It was to get the moisture out of the house. I have windows open now but the air remains thick so foresee AC yet again.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    “Thick air,” as Vicki said. It’s a theme in most summers along the Eastern Seaboard, from, say, now, through Labor Day. Certainly not every day, but still there are many days and nights with high humidity and relatively tough breathing and sleeping conditions. While I don’t wish summer away I do look forward to 12 weeks from now.

    1. Haha. As I get older, I notice humidity affects me more. But I still enjoy the lazy, hazy days of summer. My youngest said yesterday was like a morning at the beach. Feels that way this am too. I kinda like the image that brings to mind. I

      1. We do indeed need sun to `fire up’ the storm activity.

        I’m guessing the past 168 hours – 1 week – has been the least sunny week in Boston (counting hours during which it’s sunny) since perhaps as far back as April 2020.

  13. From longmeadow, MA, Wunder station. That cell tom mentioned seems to be moving slowly as it develops over the area. The wunder site for that area shows 0.27 inch rain

    Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    11:50 AM EDT Fri, Jun 4, 2021

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING…

    At 1150 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Longmeadow, or over Springfield, moving east at 25 mph.

    Winds in excess of 30 mph will accompany this storm.

    Locations impacted include… Springfield, Chicopee, Enfield, Agawam, West Springfield, Ludlow, Southbridge, Longmeadow, Suffield, East Longmeadow, Belchertown, Wilbraham, Charlton, Palmer, Stafford, Somers, Ware, Sturbridge, Monson and Hampden.

    These storms may intensify and become capable of producing damage. Stay tuned for updated statements and possible warnings.

  14. That little line of convection is a little bit further south and east than I would have expected it to be at this point.

  16. Longmeadow wunder station showing 0.56 and east longmeadow showing 1.23. I’m
    Not surprised as the cells sat there for quite a while

    1. Quickly looking at the drought monitor, it looks like half of Utah is in exceptional drought and most of the rest of the state is in extreme drought.

      Tough going into the early part of the dry season.

  19. Always interesting with the ´Boston Harbor Thunderstorm´. I feel like its not unusual to see a thundershower intensify a bit as it just moves east of Boston into the Harbor and that has happened in the last hour.

    Marshfield HS Graduation is this evening and I know they have pushed it back an hour. I don´t know if this line ever makes it to Marshfield, we´ll see.

  23. Vicki, I am in Manchester right now and it has barely rained a drop. Sky is black to my east and south along with constant thunder.

    Back home in Coventry it has been a complete deluge. Sons baseball game was cancelled tonight as the field is drenched. Storms are training over the same area. There wasn’t hail at our house but would not be surprised if the southern part of town had it where the worst of the storm hit. Will be interested to see the rain gauge when I get home!

    1. Thanks, Mark. I have watched the radar and nothing is moving from your area. Wow. Sun is out here but even to my south, down your way, the sky is dark

  24. Noting that it hit 105F in Bismarck, ND and 98F in International Falls, MN today.

    A function of the moderate drought in that region.

    Just something to watch the next month or 2, if that drought worsens. Sometimes, that 1 day push of 100F + temps that push through New England come from this source region. Its early June and those temps today are already being realized.

  25. https://imgur.com/Yo6rg2e

    I took this photo of a funnel cloud 48 years ago tonight as a 12-year old. I was in the backyard of my cousin’s home outside of Columbus, Ohio.

    The photo is a bit faded now, but so am I. 🙂

    1. Holy crap! Granted it is a faded black and white image but that tornado looks large and very close by. How close did the damage get to the house?

      1. The funnel cloud never touched the ground. I have a newspaper clipping from the Columbus Dispatch from the following day with a story of the storm. I do remember the town’s tornado sirens going off and us heading to the basement.

        The photo actually is in color. The background sky was completely dark and greenish with a white funnel.

  26. In Duluth, MN, there’s an airport (not the main one) right on the edge of Lake Superior. The lake breeze held on most of the the day, but when it gave out late this afternoon, the temperature jumped 25 degrees in 20 minutes.

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDYT&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

    Several other stations along the lakefront had similar jumps.

    Duluth can be a nightmare to forecast for. Downtown is right on the edge of Lake Superior, but just a mile or so west of downtown is a large ridge, and much of the population lives along or on top of that ridge, which is 800 feet higher. That’s where the airport is. On my last trip out there in October, 2019, I was staying near the airport, and it snowed off and on the entire weekend, with a few inches of accumulation. Just a couple miles away (and 800 feet lower), downtown was mostly rain with some flakes mixed in and no accumulation.

  27. Air Quality Alert
    for Western Kent County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    4:12 PM EDT Fri, Jun 4, 2021

    …AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY…

    The Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management has issued an Air Quality Action Day for Ground Level Ozone and Fine Particulates, from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday.

    An Air Quality Action day means that Ground Level Ozone and Fine Particulates concentrations within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. For additional information, please visit the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management website at:

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