Friday February 11 2022 Forecast (8:57AM)

71 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A bubble of high pressure that brought us a clear and cold night has again resulted in the re-freezing of yesterday’s melt-water, so watch for patches of ice if traveling about, especially on foot, during this morning until it warms up enough to melt it again. And it will warm up enough as high pressure shifts offshore and we have a milder southwest wind developing today. A warm front going by tonight ahead of low pressure exiting the Great Lakes will bring clouds and even milder air, preventing any melt-water re-freeze. This also sets us up for an unseasonably mild day Saturday, likely the warmest day regionwide since mid December, with a few record high temperatures possibly being challenged. But don’t get use to that, because a strong cold front trailing the aforementioned low pressure area moves across far northern New England will pass through the WHW forecast area from northwest to southeast, during Saturday evening, possibly with a rain shower, but most areas staying dry. A secondary front will follow right behind that in the early hours of Sunday, helping to deliver much colder air to the region, possibly with a period of snow in the pre-dawn hours. Then, as a wave of low pressure forms along the boundary as it moves offshore, look for a couple periods of snow for the region during Sunday, greatest chance the further southeast you are. This won’t be a big storm, but may result in enough accumulation to require the need for a snow removal effort for some areas. In fact, a northeast wind behind the departing low pressure wave may trigger some ocean-effect snowfall over the MA South Shore into Cape Cod which may add to the accumulations somewhat through early Monday. Otherwise, Monday’s main feature will be the cold. Much of the region will fail to make the middle 20s on Valentine’s Day, and we’ll have quite the cold Monday night and lingering cold Tuesday as high pressure remains west to southwest of the region. An upper level disturbance passing by on Tuesday may trigger a few snow showers.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Patchy clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-52 South Coast, 52-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain shower. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance of light snow pre-dawn. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing and shifting to N under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring areas along and east of I-95. Temperatures steady 20-27. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. A few moderate ocean-effect snow bands possible MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Snow accumulation for the evening, dusting / coating west of I-95 belt, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches southeastern MA including Cape Cod with local bands of 3-5 inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds and snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod, then clearing Sunny elsewhere. Highs 23-30. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

High pressure overhead shifting offshore February 16 with dry weather and a cold start but milder finish. A significant but brief warm-up may occur about February 17 before a strong cold front brings rain to possible snow showers and a return to cold weather on February 18. High pressure brings fair weather, starting cold then moderating by late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading into late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

71 thoughts on “Friday February 11 2022 Forecast (8:57AM)”

    1. Indeed. 🙂 (FYI one of your messages went to moderation on the other page but I think it may be just a typo in the email or something. I’ll have to look closely. WP is very picky haha.)

        1. Took a look. Not worth the trouble.

          It was just a comment indicating that it will be interesting
          comparing the 6Z NAM with the upcoming 12Z NAM. 🙂

  2. Thanks TK. Encouraging to see our Xmas lights once timed to come on at dusk now coming on in bright light of the afternoon. Seems like the coating to an inch west of Boston seems pretty popular for Sunday. I know it’s only coming up to mid February but wondered when the single digit lows start to become harder to find.

    1. With the strengthening sun and longer days, the chances slowly decrease as more and more days pass.

      However, a very amplified pattern is quite capable of delivering arctic chill into early April, so single digit temps are possible for many weeks to come.

      1. Thanks Tom. I’m hoping that as we reach March, 35 to 45 become more the daytime norms and 15 to 25 average at night.

  6. I think most of the accumulation that occurs from Boston southward is going to occur after sunset on Sunday.

      1. Yes if it moves the front offshore a bit more that will happen. Pay attention to the FV3 for what I think may be a better distribution of snow, not sure about exact amounts yet.

    1. It’s probably an over-forecast of ocean effect combined with a little inverted trough on the model. I’ve seen it do this.

  11. Thanks, TK

    I do not know my birds nor flowers like I should, but there was a very happy bird singing a very happy tune this morning at 6:30, a sound I haven’t heard in awhile!!!! Spring’s coming!!!! 🙂

    1. Exactly what I expected from the GFS.

      You know, it’s entirely possible that Boston south along the coast could receive more snow from ocean-effect than from the synoptic system.

      2. Yes, I do understand that. And the global models don’t
        seems to be handling this situation all that well. However, the ICON (say what you want about it) seems to be zeroed in
        on this. 🙂

        I want the HRRR, RAP, and the Stooges in range. 🙂

      3. Pete and Eric mentioned that yesterday or day before. Days blend together. It was one reason Pete had possible 4 closer to ocean.

          1. Yep. I find they consistently make good calls. We have said it before. We have some amazing on air Mets in our fair city

  16. What will the city of Boston require for snow/ice removal come Sunday night?

    A. Chemicals
    B. Plows
    C. All of the above
    D. None of the above

  19. I’ve noticed with all the models a healthy system north of the border, producing a good amount of snow north of Montreal and in Quebec City (anywhere between 4 and 10 inches). All winter I’ve seen these clipper systems deliver snow to this region. My uncle lives north of Quebec City (90 minutes) with his Quebecoise wife. He’s told me that the snow pack starts growing in early November and doesn’t stop until late March. There are practically no days above freezing during this period, even when we get our mild stretches. Snow piles remain well into May where he is. He did say they hardly ever get snowstorms that are more than 15 inches. Instead, it’s a very steady diet of snow every other day or every third day for months on end.

  22. Joshua, how does Quebec City remove snow from its streets and sidewalks compared to Boston? Given the consistent number of snow events, I hope much better.

    1. Good question. I’ve visited there during winter twice. They do a good job, especially outside the old town. In the old town the streets are very narrow and often made of cobblestone. Can’t really plow there. But people are constantly shoveling or snow-blowing paths. All streets were passable when I was there, including the narrow ones, like Rue Hébert where the B&B is that I used to frequent. It no longer exists, sadly.

      Here are two images of the Rue Hébert (part of the street is paved, another part is cobblestone):

      https://i.pinimg.com/736x/24/bf/57/24bf578d5d38bc47cf4166fafcbbccc6–quebec-city-la-belle.jpg

      https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e9/74/62/e97462f8152583909525c8d97eb7e749–quebec-philippe.jpg

    2. Not anywhere near that far north, but ski areas are exceptional at snow clearing…..and fairly quickly. People are out and about fairly close to the event. But then folks know how to drive in snow

  26. I know models show lots of outcomes and we still have two days left, but is there any credible model which shows more than an inch or two in the Boston area?

  27. Joshua, as for snow removal in Boston, including the big storm two Saturdays ago, I give the city overall a D- ! Intersections not plowed out completely and most MBTA bus stops not plowed out at all, and even the few that are are several days later, probably after many citizen complaints. It’s the same old same old every winter we get a “foot plus” event. 🙁

    Of course in 1978, would have to give Boston an F minus minus! 1.5 – 3 weeks off from school with little or no days made up. Now those were the days. 😉

    1. Think Boston is to much . This is an extremely minor event & focused more towards Plymouth county & more so cape cod .

      1. Oops. Saw map and commented before scrolling down. I thought they had an area of higher amounts south shore to cape only

    2. Makes sense…to me anyway. Another south shore storm. I seem to recall we had a winter not long ago (long is relative to me) that was focused more on south shore

      1. Some years it’s like that , some years it’s even confined to the cape having there own storms . Off to work , night all .

  29. I agree with the NWS snow map. Might even bump amounts up a tad on the South Shore with most of that falling Sunday between 6PM and sometime after midnight where a few 3-5 inch amounts may occur. The snow:water ratio is going to be pretty large.

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