Tuesday February 15 2022 Forecast (9:53AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

If you were up and out early, you got to experience some pretty cold air to start your day, as low temperatures ranged from -5 to +15, which is a fairly typical range for a set-up like this in winter. We’ll still be cold today but most areas will recover to make a push for 30F. Sun will become mixed with clouds as an upper level disturbance approaches, and a few of these clouds may produce insignificant snow flurries today. We clear out tonight, and another cold night results as winds will be light as high pressure moves overhead. Then the high slides offshore and we see a stronger temperature recovery Wednesday. Clouds move in later Wednesday and especially Wednesday night as a warm front goes by. Thursday and early Friday, strengthening low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and travel down the St. Lawrence Valley. Its cold front will get closer to the region later Thursday and it will take until early Friday for the front to pass through and finally move offshore as a second developing low pressure wave moves along it and then finally helps pull it through. This process will result in us seeing our warmest air in the evening and at night, but also a widespread area of wind-driven rain showers, and possibly even a few damaging wind gusts. The entire thing pulls offshore during Friday and the wind switches and it dries out and gets colder. I do think the precipitation will be long gone before we’re cold enough to see any mixing or snow, so it should be a less messy ending to this event than we saw from a couple other ones recently, but look for the wind to be quite active for a good part of Friday as well before diminishing at night. A disturbance will cross the region Saturday kicking the wind back up and possibly bringing a few snow showers too.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny with isolated snow flurries afternoon. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13 except -2 to +5 normal cold spots. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening then slowly warming. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east afternoon. Highs 53-60 except 46-53 South Coast, occurring late-day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Moderating temperatures as we head through this period, dry weather to start out then an increase in the unsettled weather chances.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits in the region.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday February 15 2022 Forecast (9:53AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Another beauty on tap. Winter at its very best. Fresh snow on the ground plus invigorating air.

  3. Thanks, TK!

    I believe that today was the day pitchers and catchers were supposed to report to Florida and Arizona. Players still locked out with no resolution in sight.

  6. Clear skies, light winds, fresh snowcover. Combine them and you get a low of -4 here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound this morning.

    2. I stayed above zero by a few degrees, but my sensor is near the top of the property. It was probably right at zero or even a little below behind the garage in the back yard.

    2. That is cool. 🙂 All that’s left now is Inside Edition. Not sure if it got mentioned on Drew Barrymore yet. They have the info, but I’m not sure how far out in advance they schedule their stuff.

  11. Thank you, TK

    My new station had -7 for a low. I know it is accurate during the day because I verify. I’m not sure yet at night but then don’t know how it would be off in only one direction.

  14. Longshot, thanks for sharing the video.

    Love seeing the weather reports of single digits and even some 0’s and negative numbers from last night. Daniel Fahrenheit would be so happy that one nation – the U.S. – is still very much enthralled with his quirky temperature scale.

  16. Hope I don’t bore you all with occasional weather reports from Europe. In any case, as I mentioned in previous posts Northwestern Europe hasn’t had a winter, really. Barely any frost. Lots and lots of gray days in the 40s, and numerous “storms.” Keep in mind, the Dutch and most Europeans only denote an area of low pressure as a storm if it meets the criteria of sustained winds at or above 8 on the Beaufort scale (gale force and higher). They’ve had an endless barrage of these since November, including two this week. These are chiefly wind events with mostly light rain at times. They come in from the west, usually a southwesterly. Given the lack of cold air – you have to go way up in Norway or >1,400 miles east in Russia to find anything remotely cold – there’s no snow associated with these systems, not even in the higher elevations of England and Belgium. You’ll see on this image how strong the winds are. Just imagine having these twice and sometimes three times a week. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLpqeOVWYAEd4Lu.jpg?

    1. I’m assuming everyone knows from geography class what the Netherlands looks like on a map. On the image with wind gust information the Netherlands is the country in the middle, more or less. Basically the entire nation, which is flat as a pancake, is purple, with gusts predicted over 90kmh (~56mph) and coastal areas with gusts over 115kmh (~72mph).

    3. Joshua, count me in as appreciating the weather information from Europe, I find all of it most interesting.

      These icy blue sky days here in New England are actually a blessing compared to endless gray skies and dreariness. Although I suspect I would adapt weather-wise just about anywhere.

  17. One of my mentors called the sky I’m seeing right now “glaciated”. Fairly flat cumulus, scattered, but undefined hazy stuff filling most of the rest of the sky. If you could elevate to that height you’d find it was tiny snowflakes, almost diamond dust. There is basically more snow virga in the sky than there is cloud cover. This happens a few times per winter, on average. Most of the time it doesn’t even show up on radar. But I have had snow flurries many times from this sky that otherwise were not being detected by radar.

    This is why I included the chance of insignificant flurries as a possibility today. Sometimes these flakes do manage to find the surface.

    1. Nope. Ends as rain, temps fall steadily but not drastically, and everything is dry before it goes below freezing (with exception of standing puddles that don’t dry up so easily, and water streams around larger snow piles, etc.).

  20. Will be taking a closer look in the next couple days, but my initial thinking is that the Thursday-Thursday night wind event will not be a big deal and is probably overblown (pun sort of intended?) in some early forecasts. Cold season southerly flow rarely gets me interested, and I don’t see anything special about this case. It’ll be breezy, sure, but I’d take the under on widespread gusts above 50 mph…

    1. I agree with you on the wind. I think 50+ is confined to the coastal plain, and over a relatively short period of time. Ground is pretty frozen, trees are bare. That set-up says minimal tree damage – confined to just the older / dying trees with stressed / weak limbs.

  21. Regarding record high temperature potential…

    Worcester may tie theirs. If they break it it won’t be by much.
    Boston & Providence will likely fall short of reaching theirs..

    Our warm-ups this winter have been far from record shattering, and rather unimpressive.

  22. One of the biathlon events today was almost postponed because of cold at the olympic games. One degree. They were one degree above the threshold. I don’t think I’ve even seen that in the winter games before. Postponements for snow and/or wind, yes.

    I remember back in 1988 in Calgary when they joked that it was so warm the winter games could have been the summer games. 😉

    Nothing like that this time in China! BRR!!

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