Monday February 21 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

High pressure to the south brings fair weather and milder air to us today. Some high cloudiness will be in the sky in response to warming aloft too. Low pressure cuts northwest of New England Tuesday and through southeastern Canada Wednesday. This puts us on the warm side of the low which will bring rain to us Tuesday afternoon and evening as its warm front moves through, and rain showers for a while behind its warm front into early Wednesday morning. shower activity to our region Tuesday afternoon night, departing early Wednesday. With the low’s cold front not arriving until later in the day, it allows us to enjoy a very mild day, albeit with a gusty breeze, but still a very nice day for late winter. The cold front is expected to be moisture-starved, with no real threat of precipitation, but behind that front, colder air will settle in and Thursday will be noticeably different-feeling with a sun/high cloud mix as high pressure hangs to the north in eastern Canada and an area of moisture starts to push eastward along and north of a frontal boundary to our south. It looks like that initial push of moisture will dry up for the most part as it approaches and passes mostly to our south, but a wave of low pressure will have developed on the boundary by that in the Midwest and move rapidly east northeastward, and with cold air in place we have a good chance of a wintry weather event here on Friday at least starting as snow for most of the region. Time will tell whether or not that will be an all snow or mostly snow event, or if more sleet/ice/rain will get involved. It’s still several days away, so there is plenty of time to fine-tune those details…

TODAY: (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sunshine filtered at times by high cloudiness. Highs 45-50 South Coast, 51-56 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and rain likely during the evening. Mostly cloudy with rain showers overnight. Temperatures steady 40-47 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Any early clouds and rain showers give way to a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine dimmed by high cloudiness. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet likely and ice/rain possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

The last 3 days of February look mostly dry and on the colder side of normal. A reinforcing cold front will probably pass through at some point. Colder theme for the first couple days of March and may need to watch for a storm threat as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-4)

The overall pattern looks colder than average with another storm threat potential at some point.

55 thoughts on “Monday February 21 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. Always good to see people start referring to late winter. Two of my favorite words every year. I know it’s early to determine details on this Friday’s storm, but is it possible to get a general handle on the potential magnitude of the event?

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I know there is still time, but the Thu night/Friday system appears to be trending towards a snow to sleet to rain situation possibly ending as snow again.

    0z gfs was all snow then the 6z was a slop fest. 0z euro also went to sleet and rain. I know the Canadian high could win out and it be all snow or mostly snow with some sleet Just not liking model trends. We shall.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Hopefully it’s not a glop and slop fest on Friday. Time will tell.

    In the meantime, the next couple of days will be more previews of spring. Winter is getting knocked around a bit in recent weeks, only to come back each time with a vengeance. The big difference, however, is the changing sun angle with each cycle. There’s less bitterness, if you will, in the cold, and less of a chance of accumulating snow during daylight hours. As you all know, I see parallels with the summer breakdown in August. Each successive period of heat tends to be less intense, especially as the daylight hours diminish. By late August, summer just doesn’t have the same `bite’ to it as it did in, say, mid July. The changing seasons never cease to fascinate.

  8. Dutch views on the three major storms that hit the country in succession this week are even-keeled, to say the least.

    Chief meteorologist at the KNMI (Dutch weather service) said that though three such major storms don’t often happen in a one week span, the storms themselves are “very normal occurrences.” And, he added, having three or even four such storms in a week’s time happened as recently as four years ago.

    The National Forest Manager (that’s his title) said that storms such as these “clean up the forests and are mother nature’s way of bringing rebirth to them.”

    It should be noted the Dutch are a phlegmatic lot. They do NOT like melodrama of any kind: Highs and lows are not appreciated. There’s an expression in Dutch, which is hard to translate: “Act normal, that’s crazy enough.” It’s often used if someone is `over’ reacting to something. Nevertheless, it’s always helpful to get their perspective on things, as it does contrast sharply with alarmists.

    1. I should add one thing. When asked about the occurrence of 3 storms in 5 days, the chief meteorologist said “that’s pure coincidence.” He went on to explain the positioning of the areas of low pressure – the parade, if you will, of Atlantic lows – and the jetstream.

      1. To be clear, the Dutch public’s view as well as the consensus among meteorologists there is that there is climate change and that humans are probably contributing to it. But, it’s clear from reading about the storms that both the general public and meteorologists do not connect the recent storms to climate change or some major shift in the weather pattern. News on climate change in the Netherlands always makes it crystal-clear that it’s about long-term trends. So, you never see them making statements like “we’ve been having so many storms recently, it must be climate change.” I do find this refreshingly different from U.S. news, which very often points to certain occurrences as invariably related to climate change. AND, climate change skeptics also make the same mistake, but pointing to counter-examples – say, a cold snap – as proof that there is no climate change.

        1. I’ve found that, in this country, one often has to go to extremes to be heard. Once heard, the extreme can be backed off to a discussion of how to address the issue. We have so many example of this that I don’t think it is necessary to say more. If the Dutch as a majority believe climate change does exist, there is no reason to overstate it.

          If only we could get to that level of adulting. Joel McHale’s SB commercial comes repeatedly to my mind.

  11. Thanks TK.

    So far, I have the impression that there won’t be a cold high sitting in place “per se” to keep snow/sleet for all of SNE like previous events. This appears to be much more of a snowstorm for NNE and mix/change for SNE, especially eastern sections. Also, according to the tv mets maps, there are two lows involved, one west, the other just south. Which one will dominate?

    1. Primary low moves up the Ohio Valley into Western PA and Western NY with a secondary redevelopment South of LI Moving to the East of the Cape. Redevelopment takes place too late and little too far North to provide all snow to SNE

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022112&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022112&fh=99&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022112&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      1. My guess is that it will probably redevelop even farther North than depicted. Just my gut, not really based on anything.

        Still early enough that anything can happen.

        We shall see.

        So far for today,

        ICON and GFS are Snow to sleet to rain .

  15. Vicki, you make an excellent point. The general public’s acceptance of climate change throughout Europe has led to less politicization and sensationalism, if you will. It’s very clear to the Dutch, for example, that the long-term trend (>25 years) is warmer summers and milder winters. One cold snap – or even a cold winter – won’t change their opinion. Nor will a series of severe storms or a very hot summer.

    The consensus is that humans have something to do with it, but to what degree is unknown. I really appreciate the fact that the Dutch are prudent and conscientious about the environment: From recycling, to much smaller and less gas-guzzling vehicles, to more electric vehicles, to the use of bikes as means of transportation for large swaths of the population.

    1. Thanks Joshua. Our failure here imo is that we excuse one instance because it has happened before. But we fall short of seeing that it is happening more frequently
      . If not all then the majority years worldwide in this century have set records. Seasons have been shifting for years. Records do not lie….unless we shorten the number of years we use for the records 😉 maybe I’m plugged in more because of The work Mac played in testing contaminants worldwide.

  16. 12Z EURO 10:1 Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022022112&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022022112&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022022112&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022022112&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Still looks like some sleet for SNE, so for SNE totals may need to reduce the totals a bit.

    But this is mostly a snow event for Boston and much of SNE.

    As usual, model divergence. It could go either way. We continue to watch.

  17. The B’s are playing REAL hockey against the best of the best right now. Up 4-1 against Colorado after 2 periods.

    1. Tremendous game, and the crowd is really into. Glad I bought tickets to this game. (3rd row, near the faceoff circle, end the Bruins attack twice).

  19. 18Z NAM comes in Thurs Night/Friday with a 1038 mb High to our North. Hard to tell for sure, but looks to me like a colder
    solution. We shall see. 0Z NAM will have it close enough to tell..

        1. She’s booing the prospect of the messy mix over the snow further south. 🙂 At least that’s my guess. 😉

    2. Long way to go & any solution is on the table I’m just happy that it’s almost over . I started reaching out to customer today .

        1. Yup it’s that time Vicki . Usually by 3/17 the phone starts ringing as folks want to get on my list . This season working nights I’ll be doing more jobs during the week .

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