The Week Ahead

245 Comments

10:45PM

As we get ready to close out February and one of the mildest, least-snowy Meteorological Winters we’ve ever seen, and begin March, we’ll see several weather changes, which should be expected in this part of the country at this time of the year. The question is, will we see any significant snowfall? Many say “yes”. At this point, I say “not so fast”. As has been the case with most threatening systems this winter, I have my doubts that this one will come together in the right place at the right time to produce a widespread appreciable snowfall. However, the fact that this is a threat we are looking at for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, a lot can change, and initially we will just give thoughts on how we think it could break down. Then as the time period draws closer, we’ll try to nail it down better.

Before we have to deal with whatever midweek brings, there will be a low pressure area cruising west to east across the US/Canadian border of VT/NH and then across Maine late Monday and Monday night. This will bring clouds into southern New England and possibly a band of light rain showers Monday evening, as temperatures will have moderated significantly during the day Monday.

High pressure will build across the region, centered to the north, on Tuesday, bringing dry and only slightly cooler weather. Slightly colder air will filter in Tuesday night into Wednesday, and at the same time a new low pressure system will be approaching from the west. The early indications for this is that it will come in 2 parts, the first bringing a chance of snow late Wednesday, with the greatest chance being the further south you go in southern New England. A second batch of precipitation is expected on Thursday with the  main low pressure area. It is really too early to tell what the impact will be, but a very early feeling is that it may be fast-moving, disorganized, and arrive at the time of marginal temperatures, so I will remain very reserved on calling for a chance of plowable snow, a practice generally not wise this far out even in a more clear-cut situation. Please check back on this.

Another storm at the very end of the week (probably Saturday) should travel to our north, bring warm air with it, and a chance of rain.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Some high clouds otherwise mostly clear. Low ranging from near 15 in the deep valleys to near 30 along the immediate shore, with  most areas in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds increasing, may lead to a shower of rain well west of Boston by late day. High 44-49. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a few rain showers crossing the region early, followed by clearing. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow especially southern MA and RI by late afternoon. Low 20. High 37.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow and mix. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 38.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 33. High 44.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 22. High 39.

245 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. TK, what are your thoughts about snow potential in north central/northeast CT midweek? I am about 20 miles E of Hartford in hilly terrain (700′ elev). The NAM delivers around 0.75 QPF and looks fairly cold but we are close to having boundary layer issues. The Euro was colder but sent the bulk of the precip to our south and keeps trending further south. The 0z GFS was much warmer and less than impressive with the second batch of precip. If we took any of those solutions verbatim, I would think we have a decent shot for at least a few inches of snow, perhaps a moderate snow if a solution closer to the NAM verifies…do you agree?

    Also, I had a trip to Killington pre-planned for Sunday 3/4. The Saturday storm is looking like a washout to me from here to Montreal. Do you see any potential for higher elevation snows with this VT? I don’t think it is looking too good and am considering rescheduling.

      1. Thanks….and I hear you – a bit too early to make any calls. Complex setup with a lot of variables and models really not in agreement yet.

        1. We’ll iron it out… I’m still not sure the models have the entire right idea on this stuff yet.

  5. a whole bunch of my friends are putting faith into weatherworks. What they are saying is a 6-12 inch storm for us. which will be cool and if its going to snow let it effect school

  6. NWS calling for advisory type snow for most of SNEand warning for northernmost sections. I just have a bad feeling this thing is coming at the wrong time and in pieces. Hope for a 3-6 storm and I would be happy.

  7. Right now I am thinking a level 1 snow event 1-4 inches. This could change depending on the track which is crucial. I think if any area gets up to a level 2 snow event (5-10 inches) it would be the elevated areas of SNE. Plenty of model runs to go but it is looking like an unsettled mid week period.

  8. Mark: I really do not think it’s going to be a total washout at Killington this weekend. It will not be great like it was this past weekend, but not a complete washout. In fact, I think Friday and Sunday shape up to be pretty nice up there, after some more fresh snow this week. Saturday looks like a mix which will feature lower elevation ice pellets, light rain, mid elevation mix of everything, and higher elevation snow with some mixing in the evening and a change back to snow by the wee hours of Sunday.

    1. I hope you are right Joshua. I saw the 540 line on the models surge all the way north to Hudson’s Bay Canada (!) with this Saturday’s storm – it is just passing so far west and north. Only saving grace is that the storm is coming in so quickly on the heals of the previous storm that it will be tough to scour out the cold air at first in northern NE and then the cold air should rush back in quickly at the end of the storm when the cold front passes. What you are saying is similar to what the NWS forecast is showing for Killington on Saturday – high only getting to 35.

  10. I expect winter weather alerts to be posted for parts of SNE with our next storm system.
    Charlie I am going with right now a 1-3 for that Boston to Providence corridor.

    1. TOO much model divergence.

      NAM is most Robust with snow. Gfs, has snow to rain. Euro keeps
      Much of it to the South (Snow). So who knows what is going to happen.

      The battle begins. Based on how this Season has been, I would NOT bet
      on any kind of sizeable snowstorm at this point. Much can change.
      We shall see. 🙂

  11. The things we know its not going to be a MAJOR snow and we are going to getting something. The question is how much and like I said last night in real estate its location location location and weather its track track track.

  12. From the NWS. I don’t see how the snow forecasts could be so similar on all the models when they are showing such different solutions?

    REMARKABLY…THE SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS FROM THE CMC…NAM…GFS…
    AND ECMWF WERE ALL EXTRAORDINARILY SIMILAR. WHILE ONE CANNOT TAKE
    THE MAGNITUDES VERBATIM…THE TREND SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHARP
    GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM SNOWFALLS OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN IN NW AND
    N CENTRAL MA AND SW NH AND MUCH LESS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE
    HARTFORD AREA EAST TO PLYMOUTH MA AND NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
    BOSTON. AGAIN…STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL. BUT THIS IS THE TYPE
    OF STORM THAT COULD PROMPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER A LARGE
    PORTION OF THE REGION…AND PERHAPS WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE
    NORTHWESTERNMOST PORTIONS. STAY TUNED.

    1. 12Z NAM total qpf (and still not done at 84 hours):

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F27%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      I know the NAM has a tendancy to overcook qpf, BUT if this were to
      verify?????? 🙂 🙂 Btw, looks to stay snow in Boston, but not too far
      to the South there would be a mix/change to rain for a period.

      1. Vicki,

        It shows 1.25 to 1.5 Inches of water or in the case of snow,
        melted equivalent. Or at a 10:1 ratio, 12-15 inches of snow.

        Again this is still a ways and the NAM has a history of overdoing
        qpf. But we shall see. 🙂

        1. OS – I must be seeing things – I could have sworn the map I looked at before I asked my question had the key at the bottom ……….. I can clearly see the 1.25-1.5 on this. I think I’ve been working too hard ……………or getting too old. I’ll stick to the first one and thanks for your response!

    1. Here Here!! I second that!!!! But seriously, do you really think?
      It will end up one of 2 scenarios:

      1. It moves more to the North and it Rains here with nice snows to the North.
      2. It moves more to the South and we get a miss or small accumulation.

      🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Well, 06Z GFS had it going more North with RAIN here. 🙂
      So, I don’t think that is entirely out of the equation, however, I would
      say odds favor the more Southerly route.

  17. Interesting graphic I found. This is the 84 hour snow accumulations from the 6z NAM (the 12z run isn’t available yet). The 6z run wasn’t as robust (in Mass.) as the 12z run and this is only through 18z Thurs (storm won’t even be done yet). Even this was showing 6-8″ in Boston proper with as much as 8-12″ in northern Worcester County.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX

  20. major differences in the models. yes we are going to be getting somthing.
    gfs has the storm further north changing snow to rain back to snow. larger snow accumulations further north you go.
    the nam has several different possibilities and it has
    6z nam has about .70 to 1.00 inches of water in the form of snow
    the 12z which i think is an out lier is saying 1 to 1.5 inches of water in the form of snow.
    the euro is sayijng a 6+ inches of snow for areas north and west of boston with 3-8 inches in southeast mass with 3 inches or less cape and islands
    so right now i am not going to say which one i think i am going with.

    the gfs models all have less than .6 of an inch.
    luckly we do not have to worry about freezing rain like areas of northern pennsilvania and southern ny state has to.

  21. Someone is going to fair pretty well with this storm and end up with 6-10″. Track of the lows, where the axis of the heaviest precip sets up, and the how far south the cold air can penetrate will determine who. Very tricky forecast.

    I think this time around that it is going to be your storm in central and NE Mass and we are going to be dealing with rain/mixing issues here in CT as well as RI and SE Mass. At the very least, it seems a given that Boston will get enough snow to avert the least snowiest winter (only need 1.5″ to make that happen!)

  23. REMARKABLY…THE SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS FROM THE CMC…NAM…GFS…
    AND ECMWF WERE ALL EXTRAORDINARILY SIMILAR. WHILE ONE CANNOT TAKE
    THE MAGNITUDES VERBATIM…THE TREND SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHARP
    GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM SNOWFALLS OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN IN NW AND
    N CENTRAL MA AND SW NH AND MUCH LESS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE
    HARTFORD AREA EAST TO PLYMOUTH MA AND NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
    BOSTON. AGAIN…STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL. BUT THIS IS THE TYPE
    OF STORM THAT COULD PROMPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER A LARGE
    PORTION OF THE REGION…AND PERHAPS WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE
    NORTHWESTERNMOST PORTIONS. STAY TUNED.

        1. Main center is Southern Minnisota at 48 Hours?????
          Not typically a good location for a SNE snow storm. 🙂

          We shall see how the rest of the run proceeds.

            1. At 66 hours, 12Z GFS has 850MB 0C line well North of Boston already. Clearly a much WARMER solution thatn NAM, CMC and Euro. 🙂

              http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F27%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=066&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  24. Very frustrating to know that Saturday’s storm has no p-type, track or intensity issues 5 days in advance and yet the Wednesday/Thursday storm will probably have all issues still in question 5 “hours” in advance.

    All I want is just a precious few inches for Boston to keep away from that “record”. I only wish there would be at least a couple days to enjoy it…oh well.

    1. Weird, isn’t it? I wonder why it is so different? It was the same on the 0^Z run as well. Initialization problems? Just totally out to lunch?

      Wouldn’t it be funny if it were the ONLY model with a firm grasp of the situation????? 🙂

  30. Unless the models come into some kind of agreement that also has support with atmospheric/meteorological set ups, this may indeed may be similar to most of the events this winter season. Last minute wondering and guessing, radar evaluation and disappointment for SNE Snow.

  31. The GFS basically has everything shifted north from the NAM. Colder air, axis of heaviest precip, and significant snows are in VT and southern NH. If it were about 75 miles south, it wouldn’t look terribly different from the NAM.

    Watch the 12z Euro trend south and go out to sea 🙂

    Tough forecast…don’t envy the mets this week!

  32. Update on weather overseas (Europe): Unbelievably, but perhaps believable if you’ve been following this year’s winter weather pattern, the mean temperature in February in the Netherlands will actually wind up at or above average!! This is pretty amazing, given that Holland endured a very cold 10-day stretch at the beginning of February (one of the coldest 10 day periods in the last 50 years). It’s been a bizarre winter, with almost no frost (not even at night) until the 1st of February, then a wickedly cold period of continuous frost for 10 days, followed by two weeks of days in the 50s and nights in the 40s. It’s even warmer in parts of England, Wales, and Ireland. And all that snow they had in Eastern Europe … Well, it practically vanished overnight in one of the quickest thaws in recent memory. Yes, I think this winter is one for the record books.

    However, over here, I really think the next 4 weeks will actually keep us from breaking any records or even coming in the top 5 in terms of temperature, snowfall, etc … I think we’re in for an old-fashioned New England March of very complex weather systems of snow, sleet, and rain, strong cold fronts (with at times a real feel that makes some nights this March feel colder than many nights we had in January!), and of course mild days thrown in. I call them teasers: I tell all my friends from out of town and especially those from overseas who visit Boston and think that spring has arrived to never, ever believe a 55 degree day in March means anything other than a way to lull you into complacency. Although it’s not invariably the case (take last year, for example) March around here can be very cruel to the optimist.

  33. Fwiw…Henry Margusity’s snowfall map not particularly impressive for the Boston-Providence corridor. He also says spring warmth for most of the CONUS next week and beyond.

  34. I am not forgetting 12z of the GFS. It has been far better this winter in regards to temps than the NAM. The NAM has been absolutely horrible this winter. Also I am taking very little from the NWS Boston right now. What have they gotten right this winter?

    This is what I see right now. A bunch of clueless models! All of them!! Do I sound frustrated? Yes I am because this is going to lead to a bunch of horrible forecasts over the next few days because forecasters are model huggers and increasingly function in box without regards to any other factors.

    We are looking at a bunch of weak waves supposedly adding up to a big storm with some sort of inverted trough setting up? You have troughing out west, ridge building in the SE, the best energy of this system not over SNE, but somehow SNE is going to end up with a widespread major snow event all in +NAO/-PNA set up? I don’t see it. Best chance for accumulating snow is Wednesday night and before sunrise Thursday morning. After that lots of elevation dependent accumulations, a struggle with sun angle, above freezing 2m and surface temps, warm ground. I just don’t see valley locations, coastal and urban areas doing well here.

    1. Thank you. We pretty much figured that. I think we do a lot of model reporting, but I don’t think that most of us are actually model huggers.
      (I know many TV METS ARE!)
      There are some runs we would LIKE to verify, but I don’t think we totally
      hang our hats on most runs. Sure there have been some. I remember one
      NAM I swore by! NEVER HAPPENED! LOL 🙂

  35. I am thinking 1-3 Boston Providence corridor. I think this will be a level 1 snow event when all said and done and I hope I am wrong.

      1. I saw that there because I gave my prediction before Henry gave his. I think there is some things not right the positive NAO one of them.

  36. Thanks JMA!!! I guess the reason I was thinking that the GFS was a waste bc it has not support from anything else.

    Got to love to things right now.

  38. From Matt Noyes:
    This winter it feels really weird (and somewhat dubious) to say this, but this snow potential for late Wednesday into Thursday actually looks pretty decent! The biggest remaining question is where does the greatest snow land? This snowfall estimate is just one of many guidance products, but all seem to agree the best chance is north of the Massachusetts Turnpike, centered on Central New England (Central/Southern NH, Southern ME, Northern MA). At least you know I won’t have my feet up this week, LOL. I’ll keep ya posted.

    1. Hmm,

      Matt is “Usually” pretty good. There sure is disagreement with this
      situation, leaving us hanging us per usual.

      There is plenty of BUST potential here, for sure!

      🙂

    1. Tk and JMA,

      Your thoughts please….

      Why can’t professional Mets, earning megabucks (well relatively so),
      Give it to us straight like you two do? It is beyond me. Are they under
      pressure from say the Station Manager or General Manager of the outlet?
      In other words, are their forecasts compromised in any way at all?

      Sure makes one wonder?????

      Many thanks

  40. I agree with JMA regarding the +NAO and -PNA but the pre-Halloween snowstorm had all those things “against us” as well. Perhaps we may be dealing with a similar situation in that it will snow widespread regardless with some areas lots of snow and others little or none. My hope is that the Boston-Providence corridor will get in on the action this time around.

      1. Phillip totally different situations.

        The 10/29 storm was an extremely intense storm that had heavy precip and ability to generate cold air on it own all the way down the surface. This set up is nothing like that. It is a bunch of weak waves with little cold air to work with…

  41. JMA – I am totally agreeing with you, too. Everything you say makes sense.

    And so the weird winter of 2011-2012 goes on.

  42. From TWC:

    Major Winter Storm Headed for Midwest
    by Chris Dolce, weather.com Meteorologist

    Updated: February 27, 2012 8:00 am ET

    Play Video

    Video: Winter Weather Update

    A major winter storm will target portions of the Upper Midwest as we start the week. Below is a quick outline of what we expect, however be sure to scroll down to see full details on the forecast.

    Timing: Tuesday – Wednesday

    Where: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, northern/western Nebraska, northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan

    What: Heavy snow, strong winds (possible blizzard conditions); some sleet and freezing rain also possible. Dangerous travel conditions

    It is a very very rare, indeed, for a system traveling through the upper mid-West
    to ever give SNE Snow. I’m not saying it is impossible, but History is NOT on our side. 🙂

  48. 12z ECMWF delivers almost 1.0 QPF over a 40 hour period. Never more than .20 in any 6 hour period and daytime surface temps in the mid 30’s. My thoughts remain unchanged.

  49. Thanks JMA!

    I guess another one bites the bust!!! On to Burma for me and be done with this god awful winter!!!

  50. Hadi-I am not saying it bites the dust. More just I can’t see it being significant in the areas where most people live. Urban areas, coastal cities, and valley locations.

  53. I read something interesting from GB NWS how the NAM is pushing out 12-18 inches of snow vs. GFS of 3-6. Let’s see what verfies out there.

  54. The most impressive feature in the Euro is the first band of snow which comes in Wed in cold enough air, and comes down hard enough perhaps to drop a few inches across much of the region? After that, the 540 line pretty much bisects MA and there are ptype issues outside the hills of Worcester County and the Berkshires, which look to do pretty well. I have little confidence of anything too significant here in CT or RI and E/SE MA. Too warm throughout much of the storm and precip not coming down hard enough, except at the beginning.

  57. increasing afternoon clouds will be ahead of a few rain and snow showers for the second half of the afternoon.
    for mid to late week storm.
    right now i am thinking a minor event for southeast mass ,cape and islands
    a high end minor event to moderate event else where
    when ever the models start agreeing i will break up my predictions some time tomorrow if the models start agreeing on something.

  58. I like those last few words Matt if the models start agreeing. I think will be nowcasting this event.
    I am thinking level 1 snow event 1-4 inches but its the higher elevations of the interior that might make it to level 2.

    1. At 36 hours, has system approaching SW minnesota with RAIN in
      Minneapolis. How does this translate to SNOW in SNE? WEIRD???

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F27%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    2. As JMA said the NAM has been doing awful this winter, which I strongly agree. So just something to keep in mind.

  62. The storm on the 12th of January last year it nailed and I think that was one of the few that winter it got right. Maybe this will be the one time it will be right. Wishful thinking on my part.

    1. I remember that – I nearly passed out when the NAM run on 1/11/11 delivered 20-30″ to CT and sure enough, that’s what we got. I think it did better than other models with the 1/26/11 storm as well but can’t think of any others that it has nailed since then.

    1. Looks very similar to the 12z NAM but the 0 line has shifted a tad north. Northern Mass, southern VT, and southern NH still do very well with significant snows.

  64. Looking at the NAM most of the storm still remains snow from Boston north, but that line is inching closer 🙂

  66. It’s funny how with close to 48 hours to the start of the storm there is still this much model divergence…

    1. Yes, and the 18Z GFS should really crack us up. Let’s see IF it comes
      on board or remains the outlier?

          1. Except for the GFS, there appears to be
            general model consensus for a snow event
            Boston, North??? I wonder what our friend the GFS has to say??? 🙂

            1. We shall see…although the GFS has been mediocre this year it still has been better than most of the other models…

        1. hahahahahahaha – now that was way beyond funny and you are right I am – I consider him a friend – using the term loosely since it would be internet friend – but I consider everyone here a friend also. I have this mother bear thing when it comes to friends – sorry – I’m far too old to change and would jump in for any one of you here too 🙂 And if you think I’m bad with friends – you should see me when it comes to family 🙂 It’s not a pretty picture!

  68. Hot off the presses from the NWS at Taunton:

    WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY…MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
    WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW AND
    MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. ITS STILL
    TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
    UNCERTAINTY…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS HIGH
    CONFIDENCE THOUGH THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
    MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT A WINTER STORM
    WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. AT THIS TIME…THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WOULD BE NORTH OF MA
    TURNPIKE WHERE THERE IS LESS RISK OF A PERIOD OF RAIN.

  73. Again I think we need to look more than the models and realize that this winter it was not ment to be in the Boston area.

  74. 18Z GFS so far (39 Hours) is similar to NAM, however, we don’t know
    how GFS will handle the transfer of energy to the coast or anything else
    for that matter.

  75. Interesting discussion from the NWS office at Gray, ME:

    LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
    — Changed Discussion –BOTH NAM/GFS MODELS SHOW A SIGNFICANT WAA OVERUNNING SNOW EVENT
    FOR THE FA WED NIGHT AND THURS. BOTH MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG
    UPPER TROF THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES AND THEN MOVES
    THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THURS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM A
    RATHER CLASSIC SETUP OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE N THAT WILL BE
    NOSING SWD ACROSS MAINE SUPPLING LO LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE ALOFT MID
    LEVEL WAA AND SIG UVV OCCURS. BOTH BNDRY LYR AND TEMPS ALFT WILL
    BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND BOTH MODELS INDICATE QPF TOTALS
    OF OVER 1 INCH OF WATER EQ. POSSIBLE. ITS RATHER INTERESTING THE
    UPPER TROF TRIGGERS A COASTAL LOW TO DVLP ALG/OFF THE SRN NEW
    ENGLAND COAST AND THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN HOW FAR N THE HVIER QPF
    MAKES IT INTO OUR FA. THE FLY IN THE OINMENT…AS THERE IS ALWAYS
    ONE…IS THE LATEST EURO MODEL IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH
    THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT NOW APPEARS THE UPPER
    DYNAMICS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NWD TO BRING GENERAOUS SNOWS TO ALL OF
    OUR FA. OF NOTE WILL BE TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE COLDER THAN
    GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SINCE THE NNELY LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE WINDS FROM
    THE ARCTIC HIGHH TO THE N WILL PREVAIL.

    1. Clearly, this would indicate a changeover to rain after a few inches in Boston.
      I “presume” the continution of run would have a changeover back to snow.

      So, to this untrained eye, it looks like the GFS is “trying” to come on board
      with the NAM, even if qpf is lower.

      We shall see. 0Z run tonight should tell a story.

  79. I’m not really going to use the models to forecast until sometime tomorrow night, beyond very loose guidance.

  80. Have enjoyed reading the discussion today about Wed-Thurs. I honestly have no idea how it’s going to turn out.

    Another sign of the strengthening sun….some intense thunderstorms in Florida, cumulus clouds look good on both visible and infrared satellite. A few webcams down there have shown towering cumulus normally seen around these parts btwn June and August.

  82. Harvey has .8 for Boston. I don’t buy it. I will be plowing Wed night. Just throwing a number out on gut Boston receives at least 3inches Wed night maybe a tad bit more.

      1. Hey John…I wish you were right, but I really doubt at this point you will be doing any plowing in Boston come Wednesday or Thursday. This storm will be a BUST yet again…if it had any realistic chance at all. 🙁

        I am “thisclose” to totally giving up on any snow for Boston the rest of this winter season.

        1. 7.8″ = 2011-12* (getting scary now) 🙁
        2. 9.0″ = 1936-37
        3.10.3″ = 1972-73

  84. Todd = 1-2″
    Harvey = up to 1″
    Pete = 0″ (mostly rain)

    Yesterday at this time looked sooo promising. 🙁

      1. They will. Those numbers surprised me. We will be white here Wed night Im sure of It. Maybe not so much on Thursday, be patient the numbers will go up tommorow.

      1. Glad to hear that John. It’s been a meager winter for snow plows. And I’m hoping to build a fire and sit in the window and watch snow Wed night at this point I don’t care if it sticks. I just want to see it in the air

  85. I could see a situation where there is a burst of snow then the mix line works up and an eventual change to rain.
    Level 1 Snow Event (1-4 inches)

  86. The key is that is how far that mix rain line pushes north. Less mix equals more snow and more mix equals less snow. I really thinking will be nowcasting this.
    Hopefully this will not be the last time the snow index is used for the season.

  87. I agree with you jj, I believe a short duration snow burst with a mix and then rain for some, I continue to believe most receive a coating to perhaps an inch, I think rain plays a bigger factor than we think, have a great night everyone 🙂

    1. As it stands now (and of course there is still time for things to change), I would be surprised if Logan got over 1 inch, if they even make it that far.

  88. The wind direction and the fact that the ocean temps are running nearly 5 degrees above normal in spots just offshore, along with the lack of organized low pressure (jumping from one center to another as it all elongates), and the potential that the 500mb low tracks over or even north of MA are all negative factors for significant snow in the Boston area.

      1. I wouldn’t mind seeing it since I’ve predicted Boston will land around #5 on the least-snowy winters list since we’ve started really tracking it.

        If they get over 1 it will have to be due to a good burst on Wednesday night, with no significant mixing.

        1. Does it linger into thursday as snow still or is that off the table. In other words is wed the only chance of snow with this system.

  90. Soooooo with Wed being last day of month will have to see what falls before midnight to see if longshot retains his crown. I’m betting he will.

    1. Could be and all because I read a poorly written article about La Nina while having 2 glasses too many of cabernet. Because of the article, I decided to choose an amount that would make me the lowest.

      1. I like that method Next time we guess I’m going to have a bottle of Pinot Gris on hand and then pick a number. With any luck I’ll remember it.

          1. Good point.

            and I could probably get through an entire bottle of Shiraz waiting for the NAM to finish.

            and another after seeing the probable results!

            1. Haven’t done much model watching this year, and from what I read it’s good that I didn’t waste my time. Also I thought a few people said the NAM has been “off-balance” all winter.

  98. The early evening NWS forecast for Boston still has all snow in it…no mention of rain whatsoever and very little mixing of sleet. All I can say is that any snow lovers who rely only on NWS data is going to be extremely disappointed come tomorrow. Maybe they will come back to reality for their overnight forecast.

    Having said all that, I wish their current forecast would verify. 😉

  100. A key factor is where that high sets up shop. I would like to see north of us to funnel down the cold air.

    1. If the NAM holds, I pay double for The Great Rivers of Europe trip. If the NAM is wrong, all 16 family members get a free trip. I knew you would agree. 🙂 🙂

  111. Taken verbatim, that looks like a 6-10″ snowfall from Worcester to Boston . With a good chunk of the precip happening at night Wednesday, that would help the snow accumulate. As good as a run that is for most of MA, we still change over to mix/rain in CT, RI, and SE MA. But we get a several hour burst of snow at the front end, particularly here in CT, which would accumulate several inches.

    I’d really like to believe this run, but I don’t because of its cold bias, tendency to deliver too much QPF, and the shear fact that it has been horrible all winter long!

    That being said, I find it hard to believe that even in the worst case, Boston won’t get at least a few inches out of this at the onset, even if the rain/mix line makes it further north.

    1. I looked at the NAM run and I like what I see, but it seems so unlikely. Nothing has gone like that all winter, and a chunk of snow from an inside runner?

      1. The low actually jumps to the coast and redevelops off of NJ, tracking to our south. Cold high pressure over eastern Canada locks the cold air in. The big question is how far south the cold air can hold its ground.

  114. minor event for areas south of the pike and at the coast 1-4
    minor/ moderate event north of the pike. 3-8
    winter storm warning is posted when 6 or more inches of snow with in a 12 hour period or 8 or more inches with in a 36 hour period
    i do not think we will reach the criteria for the winter storm warning.

    1. Matt, I think you have the right idea. However, you know the NWS is going to be hoisting Winter Storm Watches all over the place north of the Pike tomorrow if there is any chance of 6″ accumulating. They have been doing that all winter in marginal situations like these.

  118. From Matt Noyes a few moments ago:

    “I’m expected widespread, plowable snow for all of Central/Southern NewEng except immediate S.Coast Wednesday PM”

    “Early snowfall estimate for ROUND ONE – Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night. Again, additional Thursday snow yet to be determined! Widespread 3″-6″ – less farther northeast and also where some mixing is possible along South Coast/South Shore”

    Full discussion and Round 1 snow map here:
    http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/02/early-snowfall-estimate-for-wednesday-late-afternoonevening-pm-commute-to-see-impact.html

    1. He says despite the marginal temps at the onset of precip, most of NE will see snow because of the very low dewpoints, so the air will cool as precipitation moves in.

  120. 2012 Red Sox tickets arrived in the mail today for a few games we purchased, not as scientific as the NAM/GFS, but makes me think of spring.

    Coincidentally, the Roger Waters concert tickets also arrived today… if they were Snow Patrol tickets, I would be leaning towards the NAM 00z, but since it is Waters (and the trend is your friend…), hello GFS!

    Hope I am 100% incorrect.

  121. The NAM is poor at this range.
    The GFS has been half decent.

    No changes to thinking.

    New blog being written now…

  122. Enjoy the Roger Waters show Captain, caught it in the Garden a year or so ago. GE Smith on guitar is great (saw him with Dylan years ago, also great) and the staging is amazing.

    I said on Sunday that I was doing a snow dance. There will be snow. It will be wonderful.

  123. The show is much like the original show in 1980, but with MUCH better technology. If you’re on the field and see a homeless guy with a shopping cart going through the crowd before the show that would be Roger. Say hello.

  125. Winter Storm Watches up for a good chunk of SNE.
    Level 1 snow event for most with the exception of the higher elevations because I think those areas could get past 4 inches of snow accumulation.

  127. ok i will put out accumulations
    north centeral interior northeast mass into western mass 4-8 inches
    areas on the northeast coast to boston areas around the pike to rd and ct into interior southeast mass. 2-4 inches .up to 2 inches southeast coast .cape and island

  132. I just received my gas bill for the last month. It is down $20 from the previous month. I used more Therm in April of last year than I did in February. Unbelievable! Since insulating my house in November I have not received a Gas bill over $115. I think the warm weather has more to do with the cost savings than the insulation.

    1. Lucky You! Coastal. If I have to pay one more oil bill at $4.20 per gallon ($800.00 to fill), I may be converting to gas myself!!!

      1. Wow, that’s a lot. How long does a full tank last? I only have 1200 sq ft so my house is small enough to keep the bill down.

        1. This winter, a tank has been able to get me through at least 2.5 solid months. Good thing I like the house cool! My tenant’s not as fortunate since he’s elderly and keep his place at 68 most of the time. His last fill only got him through 40 days. The house is insulated rather well, except for attic which is being done by the N-Star program at the end of April. Should see a slight improvement next winter with the additional insulation.

          1. I used the same program to insulate my house. They did the walls and attic. My brother lives in the same town with a similar sized house. We both replaced our furnaces at the same time last year with the same model. His bill is usually $100 to $130 more than mine per month. Needless to say, he will be looking into this program as well. I think the company that installed the insulation was Hughes Energy. They did a excellent job.

  133. About the only good thing from this winter is not spending as much to heat our homes. I hope the summer does not have a lot big time heat and humidity so we could save on those electric bills.

    1. I wish I could agree with you, but with the increase in oil prices, it almost seems as though I’m still paying as much as last year. Thank Goodness it has been a warm winter! The whole oil/gas price situation is absolutely ridiculous and I fear it’s only going to get worse!

  134. Where is TK? He said he was going to post a new blog last night, but nothing has been posted. I hope all is well.

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