Monday August 1 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

72 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

August opens with a disturbance passing by to our south, but close enough that it has brought a few periods of rain to the South Coast region and some showers to the north of there. It’s no drought-buster by any stretch, far from it, but any raindrops are welcomed right now. Our problem is, we haven’t been able to string together several beneficial events in this part of the country of late, and that pattern is going to continue, as it looks right now, for some time into August. But first, focusing on the month’s first 5 days, we see that disturbance exit today, replaced later by weak high pressure and partial clearing, modest humidity, and not too hot a day to open the month. The high shifts offshore Tuesday as a low pressure trough and weak cold front approach. This allows it to be very warm and more humid Tuesday, along with a shower and thunderstorm chance mainly later in the day. This boundary passes by and a new high pressure area takes hold Wednesday. This day will feature lower humidity but still very warm to hot air. As that high slides offshore by Thursday, this is when we can expect our hottest weather for the week with many areas easily exceeding 90 for high temps and some areas reaching the middle to upper 90s. As far as any thunderstorm chances go on Thursday, we’ll have to watch for the development of a line or cluster of storms to the west of the WHW forecast area that afternoon, closer to an approaching trough of low pressure, to see if it can manage to survive into parts of the region by later in the day or in the evening. By Friday, that trough of low pressure takes the edge of the high heat, but it still will be a very warm to hot and humid day, and add to that a better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches.

TODAY: Clouds most dominant morning, less so afternoon. Periods of rain early in the day South Coast region with scattered to isolated showers elsewhere, diminishing through the morning. Additional showers or drizzle South Coast this afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms west to east mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An evening thunderstorm possible favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

The front that approaches late week will be moving out of the region during the first part of the August 6-7 weekend but may be close enough for lingering showers South Coast to start the weekend and a potential return of those showers by the end of the weekend, otherwise most areas look dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures and modest humidity. Higher heat/humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance August 8 with high pressure offshore and an approaching frontal boundary. If current timing holds, high pressure moves in with slightly drier and seasonably warm weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head into the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

72 thoughts on “Monday August 1 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Some rain over night into this morning, however, NO PUDDLES, indicating practically no rainfall at all.

  7. Thank you, TK!

    0.18 and maybe the best part is that everything is still wet. Most other times the moisture has burned off by the time I wake up.

  10. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

    PNA teleconnection.

    Negative phase: going to keep rotating in trofs to the Pacific Northwest. This, in turn, will keep repeatedly building the central US ridge and keep a parcel of very hot air to our west.

    Now, east of that central US heat can be another cool trof or a trof-ridge-trof pattern that benefits the northeast.

    Here’s our upcoming problem: positive NAO

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    In the trof-ridge-trof pattern, the eastern trof is going to be tough to come by with this NAO phase. Any cool central Canada trof or closed low is probably going to go straight east into the North Atlantic instead of moving southeast and giving relief to New England.

    Looks to me like a trof-ridge-flat ridge pattern or outright, a main jet that’s almost entirely north of the US.

    Put me down for running a 7-10F positive temp anomaly for the 1st ten days of August.

        1. Thanks Tom. A (+NAO) is almost never a good sign for us regardless of the season. As we all know by now, it doesn’t bring us snow events in winter as well.

  12. Per Taunton NWS climate data for July (temp anomolies):

    Logan: +3.4F

    Hartford, CT: +2.5F

    Providence, RI: +2.8F

    Worcester: +2.5F

      2. She is down stairs for the first time all weekend w/ a mask on . Is feeling better today obviously not totally better . I’m hopeful I can return to work tomorrow as she will be even better ( I’m cleared but she wanted me home today which is understandable.

  14. Thanks, TK…

    SSK, sending your wife the best for a quick recovery. Hopefully that’s the end of it for your family.

    0.15 in an early morning shower.

    There was a major forest fire overnight in Mansfield not that far from my Mom’s home that involved 2 acres of woods. A MedFlight flying over it at midnight caught it and called it in.
    More than a dozen agencies were involved.

    I was not there in 1927 nor I am in any position to question the NWS, I am thinking the 1927 Rehoboth tornado affected North Dighton. not North Duxbury.

    Tom, first teacher day is four weeks from today. How come July goes so much faster than March does if both have 31 days??? 🙂

    1. LOL ….. no kidding (March vs July). 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Same here, 4 weeks from today, teacher meetings galore and then, 3 days of school Tues-Thursday, which I like getting in prior to Labor Day.

      1. Teachers days Monday and Tuesday, kids come in Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. We have a four-day Labor Day weekend Saturday-Tuesday. There’s no school on Tuesday, September 6 because it’s the state primary election day. The town uses our school as one its polling places.

      1. I found this very detailed account of the storm:

        The tornado occurred on Sunday evening, July 31, 1927 in Rehoboth Village. This tornado was described as a twister, or a miniature tornado. This storm was witnessed by many people on their way to the Congregational Church to attend an evening service, including many people from the Westville section of Taunton who were arriving by car to attend a union service with the Rehoboth church.

        One young man from Taunton, Roland Isherwood, age 19, was driving a car with five other family members and friends. The roof of Joseph Earle’s ice house, situated near the present entrance to the Carpenter Museum on Bay State Road, was ripped off by the twister and flew 300 feet before landing on top of the car. Immediately after, a large tree crashed through the car roof, killing Roland and injuring the rest of the riders. The post office and store beside the ice house was twisted off its foundation. The Church steeple was twisted slightly out of line.
        The tornado continued through the village, over the village dam to the front yard of Goff Hall. It broke window panes on the Hall and ripped a wall off a barn across the street, exposing two floors. The contents of the barn spilled out the opening. The old carriage shed beside the Church was flattened by the tornado. It was located where the Church parking lot is today. The remains of the tornado dissipated quickly as it passed beyond Goff Hall on Bay State Road. This tornado was smaller than the previous events, but caused severe damage to persons and property over the local area.

        In the chaos, there was an intense rainstorm that paralyzed traffic for a three-mile radius from the Village. Cars had to stop on the roadside as far away as Seekonk to wait out the passing storm. Trees, electric poles, and wires were downed on roads throughout the area. When Taunton police ambulances arrived to take care of the injured, they had to drive four miles out of the way through fields to make it to the scene. The State Police barracks in Rehoboth posted guards throughout the night to keep the curious away.

  15. SSK. Glad your wife is improving

    Captain. Two thoughts

    Wow on fire. Glad the medflight pilot saw it. There was a small brush fire in Uxbridge Friday and the response was huge. I knew they were afraid it would spread quickly if it were not addressed. I can’t imagine what would have happened if your fire went all night.

    I have to read again re Rehoboth fire. But I wondered when JJ posted it how it got all the way to Duxbury without leaving significant damage in its wake.

    1. Easy, it lifts back up into the clouds, only to descend miles and miles later. It happens all of the time.
      I have no reason NOT to believe the NWS account. 🙂

    2. Skip action tornadoes are very common and sometimes can lift for several miles before touching down again.

      There’s some debate on whether to consider these the same tornadoes, for statistical purposes. But if the tornado completely dissipates before re-forming, even from the same mesocyclone, it’s technically a separate one. But yes in many cases a funnel has lifted from the ground for a period of time before descending again to cause more damage along a non-continuious path.

      1. I do know tornadoes can do just that. It just gave me pause. Captains comment intrigued me. More of what caught my attention was North Duxbury. I spent a ton of time at my first best friends home in Duxbury and had never heard a distinction between areas. So captains north Deighton comment intrigued me more. I want to be VERY clear. There easily could be north, south, east, west Duxbury. I just was nit familiar.

        Turns out the tornado did go up and down. But date is off. So did it. 😈

    1. Believe it or not, these are fair weather clouds. 🙂
      They just hit a stable layer above and spread out quickly, so they become a layer of stratocumulus. These almost never produce anything more than an isolated sprinkle.

  17. Soooo. If it says the same storm produced another tornado does that make this two. 1927 was long ago but I’m curious what we’d say today.

    And I’m learning a lot today. There is a north and south Duxbury. I enjoy learning days.

    https://imgur.com/a/BuRV54f

    1. That would “usually” count as two, but there’s a gray area in there as to if it was one that lifted for a short time before touching ground again.

      They try to figure out if the funnel and/or mesocyclone dissipated completely or just went through a cycle period before another tornado formed. This is not going to be perfect, but they will give it a best guess based on all available information. These days, we are far better at this than we would have been back then, due to the obvious increase in population that can record everything that happens around them. 🙂

  18. This is kind of odd wording by NWS on the zone fcst for southeastern Middlesex County…

    “Near 100” is “warmer” with no mention of heat index or humidity, which will be rather high.

    However they mention the heat index at the beginning of the “tonight” portion.

    “Lower 90s” is described as “hot”, which is right, but what about “near 100”?

    Here’s a copy / paste…

    Thursday
    Sunny, warmer with highs around 100.
    Thursday Night
    Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Heat index values up to 100 early in the evening.
    Friday
    Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs in the lower 90s. Temperature falling into the mid 80s in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

    I really miss the better wording they used to have in the 1980s to early 2000s. My opinion is that the new method is more confusing to the average reader than the old one. 🙁

      1. Since we are included in the funding for this, I think we deserve a better product. It’s not so much that the scientists and meteorologists are inept, but the organization and standardization in general are counterproductive, in my opinion.

    2. The Warmer at 100 and hot at 90 is curious

      The heat Index part I read as near 100 during the day but dropping to near 70 at night but even with the drop, the early evening Heat index remains near 100

      I read forecast before I read your comments.

      I have no idea whether I read as NWS intended

  20. TK, I believe you have said you once worked with the state climatologist. Did you ever study the record-breaking heat of August 2, 1975? Was there something extraordinary about the weather conditions that day to produce such temperatures?

    I have found a couple of sites from that day that lists hours observations.

    Quincy: https://weatherspark.com/h/d/26281/1975/8/2/Historical-Weather-on-Saturday-August-2-1975-in-Quincy-Massachusetts-United-States#metar-15-00

    Logan: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ma/east-boston/KBOS/date/1975-8-2

    I noticed the dewpoints were 69º-71º and that the winds were SE at the time that the records were set.

    Is there anything you (or anyone else) can add?

    Thanks!

    2. It was just an event that doesn’t take place that often…

      You can think of it in a way like the blizzard of 78 was for our region… A rare configuration of things to just make for an extreme.

  21. Al Qaeda’s leader Al Zawahiri is dead; killed in a U.S. drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan. This is yet another major blow to this heinous organization.

    In other much less important news, the Red Sox are wheeling and dealing. But, I can’t understand any of the moves. Chaim Bloom is an enigma.

  22. TK – Will the 2022 summer end up in the top-10 hottest for Boston? If not top-5?

    I fear that August is going to be an AWFUL HOT month. September too? 🙁

    1983 is rearing its ugly head in 2022.

    1. 1983 was worse and will be worse. This one will probably fall well shy of top 5. It was cool from June to mid July. It’s been warm since, and Boston still has far fewer 90+ days than this time last year.

      Recent media coverage of heat has made it seem worse than it is. How many records have gone down? Not many. We’re in a warm to hot pattern right now. That’s about it.

    2. I remember 1983 and this summer is nothing like that year. Not even close. It seemed like everyday was in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s with nights not getting below 70 degrees for 2 months straight. I think the tv media hypes the heat. And in the winter, ‘the cold’ and any possible snow event, even if it’s minor. It’s just modern times.

  23. What a run the 00z GFS has going …..

    Very hot Thursday and next Monday, hot Friday, very warm and really humid Saturday and Sunday.

    1. Nothing overly memorable though. Probably less humid Saturday than it will be Friday as well.

      No long heatwave for Boston this time. 85 yesterday, maybe 90 today, 85 tops Wednesday, hot day is Thursday (95-96), maybe near 90 Friday, below 90 over the weekend. Maybe 90+ Monday.

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