Sunday August 21 2022 Forecast (8:54AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure hangs on with a splendid summer day today, although the humidity creeps up a little more and will be somewhat more noticeable. Some areas started the day with a deck of stratus clouds but this has been and will continue to vanish as the morning sun climbs higher into the sky. We’ll see some high cloudiness in the sky today in advance of a warm front, as well as the development of a few fair-weather cumulus, so overall it will be a sun/cloud mix for our sky. Thicker cloud cover keeps the temperature down Monday ahead of a warm front which will generate showers and possible thunderstorms as it approaches and crosses the region, parented by low pressure passing to our northwest. It’s cold front will come along Tuesday with additional showers and storms. While Monday’s showers may have decent coverage and be beneficial in terms of providing some drought relief, Tuesday’s activity will favor areas north and west of where the drought is most severe, and coverage either way should be less than Monday. The other issue limiting drought relief is we’ll not be following it up with more beneficial rain quickly as an extended stretch of dry weather begins again at midweek as high pressure builds back into the region, although clouds may be stubborn to depart Wednesday as the front that went by doesn’t clear the region in any hurry.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 83-90, cooler coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 64-71, warmest urban areas. Patchy fog. Dew point 60s. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periodic showers likely and embedded downpours possible. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas from the I-95 corridor westward. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

High pressure brings dry weather and warm air to the region August 26-27. Watching later in the period for a frontal boundary to increase the humidity and shower / thunderstorm risk, but doesn’t look like a widespread beneficial rain chance this far ahead. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The end of August and early days of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

51 thoughts on “Sunday August 21 2022 Forecast (8:54AM)”

      1. FWIW, they are currently at 77 with a very light SSW wind
        at 5mph, strongly suggestive of another sea breeze day
        for Logan. Meaning if they make 90, it would have to be
        another 4-6 PM jump. We shall see how the day shakes out.

      2. I don’t know about that! I was completely wrong yesterday. I had little to no faith in the ability of eastern Massachusetts and its air mass to push Logan to 90 but it managed to just do it. 😉

        So maybe I’ll say they will hit 90 today so they won’t. 😀

  5. Thanks TK
    I believe BDL is leading all the reporting stations in SNE with 26 days of 90 or higher. The record is 39 set back in 2020 and second is 38 set back in 1983. The record of 39 should be safe but I could see them getting to 30 days of 90 degrees or higher for the year.

  8. The tropics remain quiet, but that *may* be changing soon. Ignore the yellow X on NHC’s map. That one will almost certainly not do anything. The atmosphere is still too dry. But, that wave will moisten things up, and set the stage for what comes next. The operational models have been hinting off an on for a Cape Verde Storm about 10-15 days from now. Of course, those are like the phantom 384 hour snowstorms on the GFS in January. It’s the Ensembles I look at that far out. As I mentioned to TK this morning, the GFS and ECMWF Ensembles (and to a lesser extent the Canadian Ensemble) have multiple members all showing a vigorous wave move off the coast of Africa during the latter half of the week, and quickly develop as it starts making its trek across the Atlantic. Both ensembles have a few members showing a threat to the Greater Antilles and possibly Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, but also several members (but not a majority) that show at least a threat to the East Coast toward Labor Day Weekend. Again, not saying this is likely, but it is enough members to get me to pay attention to the next several runs.

    What makes me a little nervous, is that we’re stuck in an upper-level pattern with a Bermuda high off the East Coast, and a broad trough that more often than not is in the Great Lakes for the next few weeks. This opens up the East Coast to potential tropical issues, especially if that trough sharpens up at any point with a system dropping down from Canada, which starts to become a little more likely at this time of year.

    Again, not saying anything is going to happen, but there are enough signals out there that it certainly has my attention.

    1. Interesting. Thank you.
      We need the rain, but not destruction.
      Perhaps we could pull off a tropical storm with copious rain, but not the severe wind.

      Will be watching.

      1. I’m actually reading the blog every single day. I just don’t chime in but SAK walked right into that one so I couldn’t resist 😀

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Did some biking yesterday along the coast – North Shore – and it was not too hot and certainly not humid. At least, it didn’t feel as hot as it apparently was.

    Keeping up with hydration is an issue, but that’s fairly typical on any summer day when you’re exercising outdoors. I think it may be exacerbated this year due to the dryness.

    I did notice that Gloucester and Rockport looked in better shape – vegetation-wise – than Boston. Must have had more rain than Boston.

    1. Told you so. The record of 30 is still well within reach. I am not going to underestimate September, which has 30 days in the month if I understand that poem we all learned in our school days. Only 10 of those days would be needed.

      And even October has been known for a 90 on occasion, certainly not impossible.

      1. It’s weird bc it doesn’t feel that warm. I know the numbers so far this summer. But it hasn’t felt like a hot summer. Certainly some warmer days but nothing out of the ordinary. I’ve actually felt like the humidity levels have been very comfortable compared to many summers. The lack of rain imo is what this summer will be remembered by.

      4. Boston has reached 90 (but never exceeded it) THREE times in 150 years of records

        10/1/1881
        10/12/1954
        10/7/1963

        In fact, if you change the date to the final week of September (9/24 onward), then Boston has only reached 90 8 times in 150 years of records.

        You need everything to be absolutely perfect to reach 90 after the autumnal equinox. The sun angle is equivalent to mid-March. You have less than 12 hours of daylight, so peak heating occurs even earlier. The water offshore has already dropped by a few to several degrees. Unless you get that west to west-northwest wind to give you downsloping off the Worcester Hills and/or the Monadnocks, it becomes virtually impossible.

        2. They’re trying to make up for the 3 or 4 90+ readings that were actually upper 80s when their thermometer was incorrect over the last couple years. 😉

  20. So here we are about 12 hours from the beginning of the next “rain event” and I have looked at 6 models with about 5 different solutions. Some things never change. 😉

    I’ll just roll some dice and come up with my rain amounts that way for tomorrow morning’s update. 😉

    1. Can’t fool me.,, I know Mets rely on knowledge in addition to just models telling them what to forecast.

  22. I’m going to Six Flags on Friday. If that front would like to hold off for a few extra hours that day it’d be nice. 🙂

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