Saturday December 16 2023 Forecast (9:27AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)

An area of high pressure keeps our weather fair today. A quick-moving, potent low pressure area that originated in the Gulf of Mexico will fly north northeastward as an inside runner storm – one that has an inland track – bringing us a bout of wind and rain Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of it, a moistening east to southeast air flow will send clouds in tonight into Sunday, but other than a patch of drizzle or a couple “in-advance” rain showers, we won’t see much in the way of rainfall until after dark Sunday, with the most solid rain area coming through during the first 10 to 12 hours of Monday. As low pressure tracks west of the WHW forecast area, a dry slot will shut off the main rainfall and we may even see some breaks in the clouds for a while Monday afternoon before a trough of low pressure trailing the main low center swings through with more showery rainfall Monday evening. This system exits overnight and on Tuesday we’re left with upper level low pressure swinging through the region. This will keep it unsettled with a chance of additional rain showers, possibly mixed with snow in higher elevations as colder air starts to move in. By Wednesday, we’ll be in a dry northwesterly flow between evolving low pressure well offshore and high pressure nudging in from the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 32-39. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. A patch of drizzle or an isolated rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may be heavy at times overnight. Temperatures rise to 50-57. Wind SE increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast.

MONDAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers during the afternoon but breaks of sun are also possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coastal areas, shifting to SW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible evening. Lows 37-44. Wind SW-W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers except mix/snow showers possible in some higher elevations. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)

A blocking pattern keeps low pressure over the ocean to our east and high pressure just to the west from the Winter Solstice to Christmas Day. This is generally a dry pattern with the only chance of precipitation limited to a few rain/mix/snow showers from weak disturbance or two moving through.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A little more active outlook in this time frame with more west to east flow and the ability of jet stream disturbances to move into the Northeast. Overall pattern still appears mild with no major cold in sight.

69 thoughts on “Saturday December 16 2023 Forecast (9:27AM)”

    1. It’s projected pressure is up a bit.

      So, a little less projected phasing I’d theorize and thus, a little less of a yank of the sfc low to the west. That’s my guess, anyway 🙂

  13. Thanks, TK!

    My brother is flying home for the holidays Monday afternoon from Norfolk VA to Green Airport.
    If his flight isn’t cancelled, his flight time will probably be less than 20 minutes long rocketing northward with the coastal storm! 🙂

  16. NAM wind gusts mph

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2023121612/USA_GUSTM_sfc_051.gif

    GFS Wind gusts mph

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2023121612/USA_GUSTM_sfc_051.gif

    NOAA wind gusts

    https://ibb.co/n8fDwK4

    ZOOM Earth ICON winds gusts 10AM Monday

    https://zoom.earth/maps/wind-gusts/#view=42.202518,-71.883944,9z/date=2023-12-18,10:00,-5/model=icon

    ZOOM Earth GFS wind gusts 8 AM Monday

    https://zoom.earth/maps/wind-gusts/#view=42.202518,-71.883944,9z/date=2023-12-18,08:00,-5/model=gfs

  20. At this point, it looks like a rather significant wind event in store
    for SNE. We shall see, but it sure looks that way.

    As Tom has been saying, also a likely storm surge along the South Coast. That will have to be monitored.

    1. I was wondering if there will be a storm surge warning.

      We have been breezy to windy here all week. It may be why a few days ago felt cold to me when I rarely feel cold in the 30s. Even low 30s.

  21. Monday high tides :

    New Bedford : 12:10 pm

    Providence : 12:14 pm

    Onset : 12:33 pm

    At the current projections, the best wind matches up pretty well with the entire 6 hrs that the tide is rising. In fact, the final southerly push almost lines up with high tide, before the wind starts to come around to SW, then W.

    I’ve been reading moderate coastal flooding along the south coast if the surge lines up with the high tide.

    1. Thank you, Tom. I often wonder if moderate in some of the areas near you is a bit if an underestimate. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

      1. Moderate is impactful but still somewhat manageable, at least in marshfield.

        How it plays out in towns on the south coast, I’m not as sure.

  22. I believe Philip mentioned that there are no Christmas wreaths adorning the Boston Public Library in Copley Square. I haven’t been to the Square in a week, but did not see them then, either.

    If the BPL is not putting up wreaths for some PC reason I am furious.

    BPL puts up Pride flags the entire month of June. I’m fine with that. But the BPL better also continue the tradition of Christmas wreaths. Otherwise we really are living in a weird world in which new traditions are okay but old ones are somehow not.

    1. Joshua, you triggered a memory. Several years ago, the BPL was asked to display a menorah along with the wreaths. Its trustees said the menorah was a religious symbol and wreaths were not. And it doesn’t display any religious symbols.

      Did it have wreaths the last couple of years?

        1. Hmmmmm. It is very sad. I tried to call to ask but never got connected. Thank you, Philip, for sharing this. It will be interesting to see if we can find the reason

          1. I remember the discussion.

            But last year there were wreaths and a menorah. I didn’t see the menorah either. Maybe it’s there and I just didn’t see it. There is construction in the Square, around the spot where the menorah is normally placed.

            I just sincerely hope they’re not doing away with the wreaths and menorah for some PC reason.

            1. I’m glad to know both have been up the past few years.

              I hope not a PC reason either. It’s gotten silly. And very sad.

        1. February. 😉

          Actually it’s going to be tighter to the pole again during +AO phase. Eventually that loosens up. We’re not going to have a very cold winter, but we’ll have cold. I just think most it comes in February.

    1. 18Z Rain from College of DuPage at 48 hours. Still some showers around, so this could still go up a bit.

      blob:null/8f73b573-0861-4987-8aaf-044a0665458e

  26. That same HRRR run, Dave, has a 78-knot gust (90 mph) in southeastern Connecticut around 11 am EST! Yikes!

  27. I feel like one thing that has shown up on 12z and 18z so far is more of an elongated center of low pressure.

    Oh, still in the low 980s mbs, but not an even deeper but more compacted storm.

    I’m not sure it changes the sensible weather a lot.

    I suppose it brings down ever so slightly the strongest possible winds that could be realized.

    But, it still looks impressive to me.

    Not often high wind watches extend as far inland as they are posted. It happens for sure, but also still impressive.

    I saw a blurb in the latest update, the models are forecasting 3-4 ft storm surge potential on south coast. That’s a lot !!

  29. A strong low level jet with 925mb winds of 75-85 knots enters the
    region early Monday morning through Monday evening. The big question
    with this system is how well are winds able to mix down to the
    surface while winds are out the southeast. With some tropical
    origins to the surface low pressure, this should allow for warmer
    temps to advect into the region allowing lapse rates to steepen
    esspically over land. The first round of high winds should arrive
    early Monday morning before sunrise and spread from south to north.
    Winds through Monday morning remain SE gusting 45-55mph esspically
    near the coasts. Another burst of high winds is possible late Monday
    morning to Monday afternoon as the surface low traverses northeast
    allowing the winds to turn southwest. With southwest winds, mixing
    potential will increase and combined with a strong pressure rise
    couplet behind the low, this could allow for increased gusts of 50-
    60mph. Due to the second burst of winds, confidence increased enough
    to expand the high wind watch north and west into SE MA and all of
    RI. Confidence is high that a wind advisory will be needed for much
    of the region outside the high wind watch as ensembles show greater
    then 50% chance for 46mph gusts, however being just outside of the
    hi-res guidance window, wanted to hold off on issuing any advisories
    with this package.

    Confidence continues to increase for minor to moderate flooding in
    Narragansett bay with the high tide Monday around noon. Peak
    forecast surge values have increased to 3ft-4ft due to models
    bringing the peak winds in near the Monday high tide. This prompted
    a coastal flood watch to be issued for Narragansett bay. The watch
    may need to be expanded into the remaining southern coastal zones
    with future updates.

    Wind and coastal flood from 4pm update at NWS

    1. Probably closer to 2-3 feet.
      While there should be more wind than the last system further west, I’m not overly impressed by what I see. Kind of a “been there done that” system.

  30. After reviewing newer guidance, no changes.

    Dynamic storm system (on the warm side of it) Monday.
    Unsettled upper low pressure day Tuesday – follow up surface low stays weak and east of here for the most part.
    Dry, seasonably chilly Wednesday through Saturday.

    Guidance doesn’t yet “see” the one potential we have to get a little sugar coating of snow on the ground around December 24 or 25 yet. I’ll go into that later. It’s low confidence, not a “wish-cast”, but a product of A.M.E. Also may be another snow chance for SNE before the end of December. This partially depends on a potential MJO rebound out of the circle while still in favorable phase 1. Something to watch anyway…

      1. Hahahaha. Not exactly what he said. But sad news is, seasons have been shifting for quite a while. With warming, it sadly means winter will suffer. And no. It won’t be every winter. But it will become the norm.

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