Sunday December 17 2023 Forecast (8:24AM)

117 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

The last of high pressure keeps us rain-free during the daylight hours today, but any sun you may see this morning is a bonus as the clouds will take over for an overcast sky. A fast-moving low pressure area is set to bring a wind and rain event to our region tonight and Monday. The set-up looks the same as described in yesterday’s blog post. The low center will travel just west of our area – generally up the Hudson Valley – with moderate to strong winds from the southeast eventually shifting to the south then southwest as the low goes by, and a trough extending southward from it swings through. Heaviest rainfall takes place during the first 12 hours of Monday, with a potential dry slot and cloud breaks before the trough swings through with another batch of rain showers. Still cannot rule out thunder but that’s a low probability. The bigger impacts with this system will be wind with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH near the coast, potentially over 60 MPH over Cape Cod, and heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with local flooding in prone areas, low visibility during heaviest rain, and some coastal flooding, especially South Coast, focused around Monday’s high tide time. After this system departs, upper level low pressure keeps it somewhat unsettled Tuesday with lots of clouds and a few rain and snow showers. Midweek will see dry and seasonably chilly weather between high pressure to our west and an evolving offshore low pressure area.

TODAY: Partial sun into mid morning especially I-95 belt eastward, otherwise cloudy. A patch of drizzle or an isolated rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may be heavy at times overnight. Temperatures rise to 50-57. Wind SE increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast.

MONDAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers during the afternoon but breaks of sun are also possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coastal areas, shifting to S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible evening. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers except mix/snow showers possible in some higher elevations. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

A blocking pattern keeps low pressure over the ocean to our east and high pressure just to the west until about Christmas Day. A weak disturbance or two may produce a touch of light precipitation. Will watch the end of the period for things to un-block in the pattern and a new low pressure system approaching from the southwest with a greater threat of precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

A little more active outlook in this time frame with more west to east flow and the ability of jet stream disturbances to move into the Northeast. Overall pattern still appears mild with no major cold in sight.

117 thoughts on “Sunday December 17 2023 Forecast (8:24AM)”

    1. And like the HRRR, projecting where the sfc low will be ever so slightly slower (taking a little longer to move through)

    1. I’m in the YES camp

      Because this low has its origins deep in the Gulf.

      Obs already show it has created quite a warm sector.

      The last saving grace could be if the south coast waters have chilled enough to offer any cooling modification to the airmass to try to stabilize things somewhat and reduce mixing.

      1. We shall see. In my mind, these wind warnings have often been overdone,
        not always, but often enough. Frankly I hope winds under perform.

        1. Agreed 1,000% and so, to the highest projections, the smart bet is they won’t be reached.

          But, I think it will still be an impressive wind event and rain event further west too.

  7. IF I’m looking at them correctly, the HRRR, NAM and 3km NAM have all come in with a slightly stronger low than their 00z counterparts.

    If that’s correct, that’s not the trend direction we want with 36 hrs to go.

  8. Thanks, TK

    High Wind Warning up since 0300. I am not sure but, I do not believe that my area reached HWH criteria last Sunday/Monday.

    Going out now to pick up debris from last Sunday night’s storm to make way for debris from tomorrow’s storm. Rudolph goes back into the shed again for tonight. Got the fixed generator back Friday and the sump pump has been tested and is working.

    School tomorrow, Tom?

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Last week, I told my daughter 2-5% chance no because of that projected wind event. And I did feel like it underachieved.

      Last night, I told her 10% chance no school Monday.

      It’s going to snow, Dad ???

      Sorry, no, another wind – power outage chance. Lol

  9. 12Z HRRR wind gusts. 2 maximum periods

    19Z

    blob:null/0bdb1930-b5c3-4092-b472-a63beefdc6ce

    22Z

    blob:null/a4004a5f-abe2-4deb-8218-65afcfdf5a95

    19Z has wind gust near Boston at 60 knots or very near 70 mph!!

    We shall see if this verifies.

    1. 12Z NAM

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2023121706&fh=39

      12Z HRRR

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2023121706&fh=39

      6Z HRDPS

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2023121706&fh=38

      6Z RDPS

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121706&fh=32

      1-3 inches of rain pretty much assured. Most models have
      2 inches give or take for Boston.

  15. I Opened blog a few minutes ago and saw 29 comments already and thought uh-oh

    Thank you to everyone for all of the updates.

    We are not in the area of Sutton that loses power easily. Our wires are underground; but of course if the power to them goes, we can lose power too.

  20. British Isles are back to their usual: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DGVRJHGFgM

    You may have noticed that Ireland and Northern Ireland have essentially been one blob of blue (rain) for months on end (with some snow in NI a few weeks ago). On the other hand, Southeast England hasn’t seen all that much rain. Lots of gray skies, to be sure.

  22. If there is one thing I loathe in winter it’s mild temps with rain. We’re off to a rollicking start, I guess. SAD has kicked in, not because of winter, rather it’s the lack of winter weather now, in the immediate future and on the horizon.

      1. Sadly a good portion of Charleston is 5-6 feet above sea level. They are doing significant planning to address the rise of the sea.

        Will share with my Charleston loving daughter. Thank you

  25. Off shore wind gusts above, storm surge showing up.

    I think we’re in for something very impactful tomorrow morning.

  26. The live cam you posted above Tom shows the ramp to the Ravenel suspension bridge in Charleston. The Ravenel goes over the harbor where all the sea land container ships come in.

    When the bridge was complete, people were allowed to walk or cab to the top. The news covered an 85 year old couple who had walked the entire distance. They were Mac’s mom and dad

  27. Outside of a raging blizzard or tropical system, these high wind events rarely verify, kinda like true severe thunderstorms

    1. While it seems they are not underperforming along the south coasts, If there is anything I like to see underperform, it’s a system that causes damage along the shore. Finger crossed you are right.

  28. May be wishful thinking but trust TK’s forecast of gusts around 50 on coast and 40 plus some inland. 70 plus are hopefully a crazy number.

  29. I agree the vast majority underperform.

    This particular low developed in the central Gulf of Mexico.

    It’s a bit of a different animal. Really good, well developed warm sector and seeing impressive winds already.

    Last week, I remember looking off the Carolina coast and seeing 35-45 mph gusts. Already seeing 60+

    But, it could well underperform too. That is certainly a possibility.

    We’ll see 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Makes perfect sense. Watching our southern states makes me worry more. Daughter said she thought she saw a tornado warning in SC earlier today also.

      1. This is a much stronger low pressure area maturing much further south with more available moisture. The thing last week was a strong, slow-moving frontal boundary with weak waves of low pressure on it.

        While there are some similarities, they are quite different overall.

  31. Classic El Nino system.

    Still puzzles me how people drive regular automobiles into floods like they are driving an amphibious vehicle. That kind of ignorance about something that’s common knowledge leads me to ZERO sympathy. You get what you deserve in that situation!

    I believe some of the strongest wind may take place AFTER the heaviest rain. The short range guidance is less excited about the final batch of rain with the trough, and still has the dry slot I’ve been talking about.

    Summary: More wind than the event last week. Less rain than the event last week. No surprises with this one folks.

    All things with the pattern are behaving as they have been expected to. There’s a reason why I don’t take part in the out of control wishcasting you see all over the net now. This is supposed to be about real information, genuine weather forecasting, not forecasting what you WANT. I’ll stick to my method, tried and true, thank you very much. 🙂

    Saw a headline yesterday, sadly from an actual meteorologist (not from our area) saying that this could be the biggest storm impact the Northeast has seen “in years”. No. No. No it won’t be. That kind of sensationalism and hype is completely unnecessary and does nothing but HURT the “weather biz”. It’s one thing for non-pro’s playing weather forecaster to do this, but professionals should never be doing this kind of thing. I don’t care what their bosses tell them to do. It’s wrong. Period. End of story.

    Ok, rant over. That’s much better. 🙂

    2. Thanks TK. I take it your forecast numbers above have not changed? When do you see the highest winds in the metro west area?

    3. I was shocked at the cars driving through the water. . Daughter knows the area very well and said in SOME instances they have nowhere to go….water both sides of them. I’d like to think that those in charge know when to ban driving so won’t second guess them..I don’t think. This is far from an uncommon occurrence in that area.

      That said….i saw some passing others. Good grief. And worse, a man got out of his car and started walking. Ummmmmm. We used to have alligators sunning on the pool where Mac’s parents lived. The water there is full of them.

  34. This one is top 10. I saw a headline today that said “coldest temperatures in 302 days” …. oh boy. Good thing I was done with my tea for how hard I laughed. 😉

  35. Rain moving in right on schedule. 🙂
    All on track, forecast-wise.

    Not much wind at first. That comes later.

  38. Joe & I just went to Macys in Hanover & not even a breeze yet , but that comes later I think . Tk how bad will it be leaving pembroke at 5 am heading into the Hospital.

    2. I have not been to Macy’s in quite some time . The week before Christmas & the store was literally empty , I was scratching my head & going back years ago when all stores would be packed with shoppers.

  40. We just had some heavy rain come through that had a couple of lightning strikes associated with it when it was south of Martha’s Vineyard. 0.47 here as of 8:45.

  41. Overdone or not, the latest HRRR (00z) wind gust model continues to be consistent with a 67-knot gust at 9 am in southern Bristol and Plymouth counties.

    1. Yikes. I wonder if the trampoline is weighted down.

      There was a lot of discussion on Mikes twitter page. I like following him even though he’s in FL. He wss accused of hyping. But he doesn’t hype. The majority comments however said they’d much rather have over forecast and be safe than under forecast. Made me smile.

  43. Crazy night. We are up to 13 sustained and 32 gusts. Power went off and on once. This is definitely different than last week.

  45. Next 3-5 hrs should be interesting.

    Next blob of convective rains gathering and intensifying south of Long Island.

  46. I will sometimes never understand stuff ……

    The threat of 3 inches of snow and the first flakes, I have sat at home with school cancelled. And it’s ended up raining.

    But, heavy rain, strong winds, poor visibility, deep puddles. I’ve been out to do my normal Dunkin run. It’s not the greatest visibility.

    Kids are getting picked up right now. We couldn’t delay an hour for some light to see in these conditions ?

    Ok ……..

    1. I second the motion, Tom.
      It was very hard trying to find the lines on the road on the way in.

      I am hearing power outages in Carver as per WATD-Marshfield.

      Definitely a two-hands-on-the-wheel drive-in!

      1.38″ and 57 when I checked at 6 am.

      I know the western end of Taunton is more than 1.50″ now.

  48. There are a handful of schools closed in Rhode Island and in Connecticut. There are none closed in Massachusetts, just one “No AM-Kindergarten” in Blackstone-Millville.

  49. Highest wind gust I have seen was 62 at TF Green in RI.

    It;s just breezy here. I wouldn’t even call it windy.
    Not yet anyway. Time’s a ticking….

  50. Left house at 5 for Boston . It actually wasn’t bad at all & I arrived to Northeastern ( where I park ) on time . Not bad considering I hit one accident on the way in . Tad bit of wind when I left but nothing significantly strong at all at that point .

  51. OK, officially WINDY here now. Gusting pretty well into the high 30s, lower 40s for sure. Don’t know if we have hit 50 yet, although I did hear a really good one, so it’s possible.

    Meso West say 41 mph gust at Logan recently

  53. According to 12Z HRRR strong winds should subside starting
    around Noonish or so.

    So, we have nearly 4 hours of some pretty strong winds.
    Let us hope they don’t get any stronger

  55. At this time 46 or 47 is the highest gust I am seeing
    Have we dodged another bullet? OR? is an area of stronger winds
    yet to move in. Models say strong winds till NOON.

    We shall see.

  56. I just got an alert that 100,000 customers are without power
    in Massachusetts. I find that hard to believe. From What?
    Some awfully weak trees and/or infrastructure to have that
    many outages at this time.

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