9:26PM
For eastern MA, southern NH, and RI
HEADLINES… Showers fizzle, heat will sizzle. First half of week is hot, second half is not.
DISCUSSION… A disturbance is crossing New England tonight, but does not have too much support with it, and this has resulted in most showers and what few thunderstorms have occurred remaining on the weak side, with some of the activity fizzling out as it moves across the region. One more impulse of energy coming along from the west later at night may ignite a few more showers and storms after midnight, but these should not be too widespread. High pressure ridging will build over the region Monday and Tuesday with the heat coming on in. Tuesday will be especially hot, with some record highs possible. The next thunderstorm threat comes with the arrival of a cold front on Wednesday. The timing of this front will determine the coverage and severity of thunderstorms. Early indications are that the front will be early enough so that the atmosphere does not reach its full potential destabilization in southern NH and much of northern and central MA, while areas further to the south in MA and RI may see a greater risk of stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Something to watch…
By the 2nd half of the week, a more refreshing and seasonably warm air mass from Canada will dominate, and it looks fabulous around here.
FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid. Lows around 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s, hottest inland, with some cooling along coastal areas during the afternoon hours. Wind NW-N around 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind variable to SW under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very hot and humid. Highs from the upper 80s Cape Cod and Islands to middle 90s interior southern NH and eastern MA as well as northern RI. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 75. High 90.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 84.
A note on Wednesday that I didn’t want to put in the actual discussion: I would not be surprised if the timing of the front coming in is fast, and we see the first showers and storms late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning, have a break, then the front slows down near the South Coast and a wave brings clouds and a shower threat back across southern New England Wednesday afternoon/evening. This is one possible scenario with the transition out of the heat and to the more comfortable 2nd half of the week.
Thank you TK!!!!
Thanks TK. Do you think Tuesday has the potential to be near 100 in some places?
Can’t rule out some upper 90s. Don’t think anyone reaches 100.
I have noticed a lot more acorns falling from the trees lately! 🙂
Those things run in cycles. Sometimes there are insane amounts of them.
my cousins and I had a pine cone war at my grandparents. up in the woods by the field behind thier house… It sadly started to rain and it rained for a good 3 hours. It did not stop us though. it was fun… ps never use green pine cones they hurt. 😀
on this humid,warm night the village idiots are back at it again but this time with new targets and they are my freinds being targeted….car’s being targeted and smashed. i guess they found my parents and us to tough to handal since we got their ” leader arested for 2 days ” There a group of kids that use to hang around my street and did things to peoples houses up and down it and yell. Now they have moved to other neibor hoods.
Thanks TK.
Got to get to Thursday as it looks like a nice stretch of summer weather starts then and lasts into the weekend. Watching that front on Wednesday and from what I am looking at south of the pike could be dealing with some strong to possibly severe storms. Don’t see this as a widespread severe weather outbreak and currently the SPC does not have us in a slight risk for severe storms. That may change as we get closer to Wednesday.
Lovely morning…………yes, I’m trying to convince myself 🙂
78 with a 68 dp. I think our dog is having the worst time of everyone trying to stay cool.
Tomorrow I have surgical procedure to blast out the last kidney stone that’s been lurking for months and I do hope the hospital AC is cranking!!! Not a bad place to be considering the temps forecast.
Good luck tomorrow Vicki!
Good luck. I have had kidney stones and they are so painful. Do get them often?
Me too ! Hope it went well Vicki !
Thank you. I have them regularly. This one has been bugging me on and off since the start of may and doesn’t seem inclined to depart on its own so we are blasting it :). Sorry you have them too 🙁
Good luck with that tomorrow!
Thank you 🙂
Good luck.
Thanks 🙂
Ditto! 🙂
Thanks to everyone!
Tomorrow looks to be the worst of this stretch of hot weather. Thankfully so far this summer these blasts of big time heat and humidity have not lasted long.
Looking at the NAO chart depresses and I say to myself why could this not happen during the winter months.
It will soon jj. We get plenty snow this year. Last year just very rare.
I wouldn’t go as far as “plenty” but any amount should exceed last year’s total. We will see.
I have now learned that a -NAO in the summer means HHH. 🙁
I hope your right John. Enjoy the heat!
I’m new to this site…it ‘s a great blog. I’m also a weather novice, and just curious about whether there is something about current heat/weather patterns that are already indicating an upcoming snowy winter (just reading some of the comments that suggest that we should get plenty of snow this winter). Thanks
There is really no solid way to tell snow for next winter at this point, other than speculating the ENSO status (El Nino, La Nina, etc.) and predicted phases of some of the other major long term climate indices, including the solar cycle.
My first early hint of speculation says more snow than last winter (that’s easy to say) but below the long term average. Cold start, milder middle and end.
Thanks for the response!
Vicki: Good luck with your procedure! I am sorry to hear that you’re going through that.
On acorns: TK is right. It is a cyclical phenomenon. However, there is some empirical evidence that suggests that a lack of acorn production (e.g., last year, which produced very little) is associated with relatively mild winters.
The weather: As you know, I am not a fan of HHH. Luckily we’ve been spared a lot of HHH thus far, certainly in comparison with other parts of the country. Moreover, we’ve had an incredible number of sunny days, many of them not HHH. It is too dry, and fire danger lurks as a result. But, even a winter person like myself will take this kind of a summer over what my friends are experiencing (and often experience) in Northwest Europe: A barrage of rainy, cloudy days, with temps in the 60s. Incessant, in fact, for the past 6-8 weeks. I see some minor changes to this pattern the coming days which could favor improving conditions for London for the Olympics. But, overall, it’s been a miserable summer over there.
Next winter: It’s way to early to predict anything regarding next winter. But, I think it’s safe to say that we’ll have more snow than last winter. In fact, I’m willing to bet my life’s savings on that!
Thanks, Joshua. If I remember correctly (and that can be a stretch) the year before last we had an unusually high number of acorns on the ground. Except this seem very early to me. I thought it was closer to fall when squirrels etc were gathering.
The sun is back and the temps are near 90F today. This constant warmth is turning me into a grumpy camper. I am hoping for a cold front and soon ! Think I’ll be asking my wife to head for Nova Scotia next summer :).
I am reading in the newspapers about the drought in the central part of the US. Its eastern edge, in modified form, extends into the central parts of NY and PA. It just makes me wonder if it will help to continue the big central US Ridge throughout the month of August…and of course, pieces of that warmth will continue to break off and slide into the northeast ??
I could do without the heat, too, Tom, although we can’t complain too much. I found June to be unusually pleasant this year. Nova Scotia is nice. Problem is you may have to battle with stalled fronts and fog. They can have delightful weather – 60s and 70s and sunny. But, it can also feel like Scotland in `New Scotland.’
The drought is serious, especially across the absolutely baking Midwest. Spoke to someone in St. Paul this afternoon where it’s hit 100 many days this month.
By the way, I was in Eastern NY State Friday night and it absolutely poured for at least 3 straight hours – I mean a deluge. I’m not sure if any of that system made it across Massachusetts. I was hoping it would to put a dent into the drought situation.
It didn’t make it.
Hey Joshua… Good to hear from you. I agree were going to have more snow than last winter but my gut is telling me below average in the snowfall department but not as much as last year.
As I said earlier keeping an eye on what looks to be a potent front that could give us some strong to possibly severe storms on Wednesday. Parts of northern New England are in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. Currently we are not in the risk area but I think that will change tomorrow. Right now I am thinking level 2 activity since there will be the threat of some severe weather. One thing is for sure great weather returns for late week into the weekend with nice temps and humidity in check.
NWS has HHH returning early next week. I was really hoping we would get into a much less humid pattern for awhile…UGH! 🙁
I will be updating soon.
A few notes:
Today: I should have added isolated showers/storms knowing that sea breeze boundary was going to be playing with the atmosphere. That was my mistake. Granted, very few people saw them, but there were a few short-lived downpours around late this afternoon.
Tonight: The muggies come floodin’ in.
Tuesday: Going to stop just shy of the 100 that Pete B. is predicting for Boston. Wondering if cloud cover becomes an issue for part of the day.
Tuesday night: Still a wild card as to whether or not a storm complex forms somewhere in the eastern Great Lakes or NY State and tries to move southeastward into the region.
Wednesday: Most action is likely to be to the south but the position of the front may make the day mostly cloudy overall.
Thursday: NWS forecasts mostly sunny but I hesitate a little bit because that front may still be sitting just south of the region with a possible ripple moving along it. Low confidence here.
Friday-Saturday: The 2 most comfortable days, even a bit “chilly” at night with low dewpoints.
Sunday: Back-side warmth comes in quicker than many forecast. I think Harvey kept it too cool and middle 80s are more likely.
Early next week: Some heat & humidity returns but to what degree, I am not sure yet.
Ahhhhhhh chilly. Thanks TK. Is it telling that with all of the great info you have that I focused on one word”…………..chilly