Friday February 14 2025 Forecast (7:41AM)

242 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Your Valentine’s Day weather will be mostly dry, but windy and on the cold side, as a healthy northwesterly air flow exists between eastern Canadian low pressure and an area of high pressure building our way from the Great Lakes and Midwest. The air flow is carrying some moisture from the Great Lakes region this way, and a little band of light snow showers can form and move across some areas as we go into midday and afternoon. High pressure builds closer and over the region tonight to shut down the wind, but make for a very cold night due to radiational cooling. Dry weather is good for anybody with evening plans that take them outside, but you will want to be aware that lingering icy patches can exist where they were not removed / treated / sublimated by dry air. And now the focus shifts to the weekend event. I haven’t changed my ideas too much on this, but attempting to refine the forecast a bit more here. One surge of moisture heads our way ahead of a warm front on Saturday, with a few to several inches of snow expected Saturday afternoon and night. Timing is such that we should get through most of the daylight hours of Saturday before the snow reaches the entire region, and it may even wait until nightfall to reach areas further south and east. The big key to the forecast is the track of low pressure and the movement, or lack of movement, of the warm front ahead of it. Model forecast often struggle with this, trying to warm it up too quickly, but cold air is hard to dislodge from near the ground, and while it warms aloft rather easily as a primary low pressure area takes a track into the New York State area, the cold air nearer the ground sets up a sleet / freezing rain situation. We’ll have to watch for this, and then track the surface temperature to see where it can get above freezing for just rain, and stays at and below freezing for an icing situation. If the layer of cold air is dense enough, instead of freezing rain, you see sleet. So that delicate temperature profile and resultant precipitation pattern is what to look at during the overnight Saturday night through Sunday portion of this drawn-out storm system. The potential is highest for snow going to a longer period of sleet away from the coast and well inland, a period of freezing rain in most other areas, but warming enough above freezing to occur non-freezing rain closer to the coast, especially the South Coast to Cape Cod. After all this, as low pressure redevelops nearby then moves offshore, enough cold air can come back for a flip to sleet / snow northwest to southeast, at least for a brief time, before it comes to an end. This would occur Sunday evening. Behind the storm system, its influence will still be with us Monday in the form of strong, gusty wind, and cold air, as dry weather returns. This windy and cold set-up lasts through Tuesday too as the storm becomes quite strong while moving through Atlantic Canada.

TODAY: A sunny start then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of passing snow flurries, favoring areas west and southwest of Boston. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts above 30 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

TONIGHT: A few passing clouds early, a clear interlude, then increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 5-12 except 12-19 South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming calm.

SATURDAY: Filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds thicken up in the morning. Lowering overcast afternoon – late day snow likely, especially west of I-95. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow evening into overnight with accumulation of 1 to 3 inches south of I-90 and 3 to 6 inches elsewhere except 6 to 8 inches in some locations of southern NH and north central MA. Snow to sleet to freezing rain / rain transition begins south to north late evening / overnight with icing conditions first away from the immediate South Coast up to the I-90 belt with higher probability to sleet to the north. Temperature rising slightly to 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH evening, staying that way over interior valleys and shifting to E 5-15 MPH elsewhere, especially coastal areas, overnight.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Precipitation continues – transition from freezing rain to non-freezing rain works from South Coast into the I-90 belt but takes longest in valleys, sleet to freezing rain in areas to the north with a lower chance of getting to non-freezing rain, resulting in additional sleet accumulation and ice accretion. Highs 28-35 north of I-90, 35-42 I-90 south. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, except interior valleys and portions of northern MA and southern NH see calmer conditions or a N drift.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain/ice likely turning to snow with a possible small accumulation before ending. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Watching a snowstorm potential in the February 20-21 time frame – leaning toward an offshore evolution and more of a side-swipe than a bigger hit, but the latter cannot be discounted as a potential this far in advance. Generally dry weather just before this threat and returning again after. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Watching the February 26-28 period for a potential winter storm impact. Temperatures below normal.

242 thoughts on “Friday February 14 2025 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  5. Thanks TK.

    Just ordered the bucket loader to clear my driveway and the wood to board up my windows. Thanks GFS for the advance warning.

  14. We are heading up to Sunday River, ME later today for the weekend so wont be home to report on the conditions. Hoping I dont come home to my mailbox laying on the ground again, and hoping it stays all snow up there. Either way, it is going to be an interesting day of skiing, and driving home, on Sunday.

  17. I understand that the snow part is early in the event and not to be affected by the primary low later in the event …..

    The models are really intensifying that primary. 12z HRRR down to 984 mb !

  20. Weekend event looking like a 3” ceiling for Boston but to be washed away. I’d love to be able to use the snowblower this winter.

      1. Yes.

        I still like what TK is showing for snow. Boston is at the Mass Pike, so I like 3 or a bit more at Boston.

        With the primary seemingly being stronger with each run, I think the mild air might get in sooner aloft, but, also the models will underdo the cold air at the sfc.

        Unless something changes radically in the next 24 hrs, I’d say most areas are going to get a net gain of snow on the ground. It might have a lot of water in it, but I think its going to absorb rain, more than get melted by it. Exceptions might be far SE Mass and for sure, Cape and the Islands.

        1. With surface temps in the mid 30s, not going to lose all
          of the snow that falls, that is almost for certain.
          Agree, a net gain for much of the area. Areas to the South may not see a net gain, but Boston North for sure.

  24. Thanks TK

    Happy vacation to all of our teachers and school staff. Safe travels to all this weekend

    1. Fair guess for sure!!!

      It will be interesting to see what shakes out.

      Tom makes and interesting comment about the warmer air aloft coming in a little sooner than modeled , but the cold at the surface hanging on longer than modeled. Could limit the snow. We shall see.

      Messy situation no matter how you slice it.

    2. Since that won’t add up to 6” I guess I’ll still be “counting” on Monday. Possibly many weeks to come, maybe even a year from now? ❄️ 😉

    1. This is a reflection of the weak La Niña SE ridge that the METs said would set up a big contrast and result in the active pattern, messy systems, and increased snowfall occurrences.

      All verifying. We do actually know what we are talking about despite being continuously doubted and put down by the ignorant. 😉

  31. Snow band from Great Lakes to our WSW now, may reach areas west and southwest of Boston later, as noted in today’s discussion.

  33. I think BOS will be widening their lead in the snowfall standings after NY gained a little ground.

      1. IF we get the Thursday system in any meaningful way, they’ll be there and if not there is still the 25th/26th possibility. 🙂

    2. I believe not only will BOS widen its lead over NYC, they will be closing in on ORH. They will not runaway with it like the last 2 winters.

      2021-22: ❄️

      BOS = 54.0”
      ORH = 53.6”

      I believe that was only the 4th time Boston “outsnowed” Worcester.

      #5 in 2025! ❄️

  36. Is there a way to know how much of the model projections are being polluted by frozen precip that isn’t snow?

    1. 10:1, a great deal. Supposedly, the Kuchera takes that into account. But who knows for sure in the end.

  37. NWS maps are starting to grind my gears. They are becoming confusing. Something that’s interesting to me is the “expected” amount is very close (within an inch) to the high end.

    1. The difference between the expected and the low and high ends are based on forecast confidence.

  39. Be careful not to get sucked in. Low end range or under is probably safest if this winter has taught us anything.

    2. 🙂 🙂 🙂
      I am MOST CURIOUS to see how this one plays out.
      SIGNIFICANT increase in Kuchera Snows from 6Z to 12Z
      Is something up? Or the models getting sucked in?

    1. No watches/warning in Eastern section because it is still too early. A bit later at least a Winter Weather Advisory should be posted for Eastern sections. 🙂

      1. Watches/warnings will likely be hoisted tomorrow for eastern sections just for the snow alone. Still remains to be seen if they remain for Sunday though, depending on any potential icing.

  42. I have a feeling that the 12Z GFS will send the Thursday system much closer to us.

    500MB close low is farther West on the 12Z run than it was on the 6Z run. We’ll see how whacked out I am. 🙂

  43. This will come as a shock ….

    The 500 mb projection looks way different than on its 00z run.

    In fact, the 500 mb closed low is way west and digging further south.

    With that, I wouldnt be surprised if it simulates next Thursday’s storm further west than seen so far ?????

    1. The 500mb seemed to have caught up with what the 6Z showed and then some. Now looking like it will be MORE off shore.

      So much for my analysis!!!!

  44. IF that storm is a hit next week, there’s potential for a clobber because the models are hinting at a very strong piece of energy at 500 mb.

    If it tracks correctly and everything lines up correctly, its the kind of 500 mb low that can cause a sfc low to explosively intensity and track slowly, if it captures the sfc low.

    1. Clearly, they are not in phase on the 12z simulation, but that is worth keeping an eye on in the coming days.

    2. Well, this is the scenario I describe above.

      Much more phasing btwn the northern 500 mb piece of impressive energy and the southern stream disturbance.

      This is the intensity type possible outcome if that happens.

  50. The wind advisory is CURRENT and MOST important in the short term, and therefore takes priority on that map. They’ve always done this.

  51. Note: Do not just assume that because a few times this winter, the NWS forecast has verified more on the low end that every single instance is going to turn out the same. That is not how it works. Don’t disrespect the the process of meteorology, please.

  52. Re: Snow maps from NWS.

    Example: Boston.

    Look at the point forecasts…

    Expected: 5″.
    Low end: 2″.
    High end: 6″.

    Interpretation: Their forecast leans toward the high end over the low end.

    Further explanation of their ideas can be found in their forecast discussions.

    1. I like that expected category.

      Of course it will open a whole new can of worms for our social media warriors.

      1. Exactly!

        I can hear it now:
        “Would you go to a dentist that says he expects your problem is with tooth #20, but just to be sure, he’s going to extract teeth #18 – #22?!”
        🙂

    2. I eas just about to say sonething about it looking goog so far
      Look at the 250 mb flow it is very fast allowing for a lot of lift.

    1. Verbatim 1-3″ north of Pike, 3-6″ south of Pike and 12-20″ mid Atlantic up to NYC, LI, Cape and islands. Blizzard conditions for Cape and Islands.

        1. Yeah and if you extend it back further, the actual totals in the mid Atlantic back into MD and northern VA are impressive…

    2. Basically the storm moves straight up the coast towards southern NJ and then hits the block and makes a 90 degree turn to the east. Otherwise would be a bigger hit of all of SNE.

      Interested to see what the ensembles will show….

    1. Winter time in Canada! Perfect for a hockey tournament too, which is coming to BOSTON next!

  58. Have a field day with the guidance for the 2/20-2/21 threat. I’ll be looking but not scrutinizing too much until we get by this upcoming system, which is going to present some pretty significant issues for portions of the region, maybe not in everybody’s back yard, but enough of the region so that it needs to be paid close attention to. 🙂

  59. Early afternoon Sunday and the temps are still 30-35 across ALL of eastern MA except maybe Cape Cod. 32 line may not even reach Boston until after 11 a.m. or noon.

    Not a surprise to me, but now the short range guidance is starting to see it better. IF that wind stays N at Logan, they fail to hit 32.

    1. About what time does precipitation end Sunday night? Will dry air rush in and shut it off as the storm moves away like previous events?

      1. It will be a pretty quick end, yes, because of the configuration of low pressure. However the cold air will be in with many areas able to turn to sleet and snow before ending.

  60. Mid afternoon snow map update from NWS shows no change from the previous.

    Point forecasts for selected locations…

    Nantucket: 2″.
    Plymouth: 4″.
    Providence RI: 4″.
    Boston: 5″.
    Lowell: 7″.
    Manchester NH: 7″
    Fitchburg: 8″.

    These are in agreement with my accumulation forecast above so we’re on the same page.

    1. Still a nice total for Boston. Amazing though how difficult it is to get a “6-incher” around here these days.

      1. It’s not that it’s difficult. It’s that the weather pattern up to this point has not supported moisture-loaded system combined with atmospheric temperatures in the right place for 6+ in the city. There have been several 6+ events in parts of SNE already this winter. Logan is not highly representative of the region, since it’s surrounded on 3 sides by relatively warm water, especially for the first half of the winter, which we just completed.

  62. From Bernie Rayno

    Windshield wiper warning in effect next week. While there are many pieces, my focus initially,is the location of northern trof across Upper Midwest Tue nt/wed. The farther east more likely storm gets pushed south, the farther west the more likely its directed up the coast

    1. As the mets have been hinting at for a few days now while the media bosses only wanted to focus on snow amounts. #obsessed

    1. This system is arriving already loaded with gulf moisture. The previous ones were not. Too many people just think “It’ll do this this time, because it did this last time.” No. That’s not meteorology. Science is not gut feeling either. Gut feeling is nothing more than a random guess.

      For me, each forecast, right or wrong, will be derived with the use of the scientific method, and devoid of hype. 🙂

      P.S. I agree with your over-under idea. 🙂

  65. From Bernie Rayno for next week storm potential

    I am unsure yet how this all works out Next Wed/Thu. However, anytime there is an injection of cold air PROCEEDING a storm, my antennas for Northeast Snowstorm rise. Now we watch for the location & tilt of the Midwest trough next week.EURO and CMC on board, GFS is mostly offshore

  66. 18z NAM (3km) still has sleet / fr. rain at the Cape Cod Canal at 12z Sunday! All frozen (sleet / snow) still going on north of there.

    1. We already explained this. They don’t put them up this soon, and right now there is a wind advisory in effect. That’s more important. The lack of advisories for the upcoming system doesn’t mean it’s not happening, or will be “no big deal”. Give the NWS a chance to do their job. They shift change now and have meetings to hand off to the new forecasters. They take this stuff very seriously. Their job is to serve the audience and keep them weather aware.

      That winter weather advisory will be expanded to include Boston, Plymouth, and Providence, in due time. This is how it’s done.

  68. I’ve had this web cam up as one of my tabs virtually all winter. I really need to take myself here for a skate before the month is over. Been up and running since December – never melted. Not going to melt anytime soon either. This is the equivalent of a giant back yard rink. Labrie Family Skate at Strawbery Banke Museum (yes that’s spelled correctly), Portsmouth NH.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWZBm4Ekk4g

    2. I’ve been following this blog for a couple of years now and wanted to say thanks! Really enjoy following the discussions and learning all the lingo particularly as you track the winter storms. I live in Portsmouth NH and the rink has refrigeration but this year definitely didn’t need it too much. It’s been a great addition to the Portsmouth area for winter fun.

      1. Thank you for clarifying! Somebody had told me that it didn’t have any, but I’m glad they do have it because I really want to go up there and give it a go, hopefully before they close it down for the season.

        I’m not the best skater in the world, but I have good balance and I fly around pretty fast. 🙂

        I’m more of a “hockey” skater, definitely not a “figure” skater. That would be comical to watch.

        Glad you enjoy the blog!

      2. Portsmouth is a lovely place to visit. So glad to see you here.

        I can’t seem to access the video but what a fun idea

    1. Backing off?

      1) That’s one model.
      2) That’s a model I already said doesn’t do well of late.
      3) The totals have actually gone up slightly since 12z in most of the region.
      4) The total at Boston is down a couple tenths of an inch.

      I don’t think “taking the under” is the right reaction to one run of a suspect piece of guidance I wouldn’t factor into my own forecast. Just letting you know. 😉

      1. I looked at several.
        I think we will end up with just as much frozen as before, except I think more will be in the form of sleet rather than snow.

        My guess, Boston 3.4 inches. Aren’t I a pain. 🙂

        maybe it’s just my mood.

        1. Boston will still likely be snowing at 6 a.m. .. Most of the snow accumulation there occurs between 9PM and 3AM.

          Also, I have Boston in “3 to 6”. My meteorological guess is 4.5 for part 1, < 0.5 for the end.

          1. I’ll be watching. 🙂
            We’ll find out one way or the other.
            In the end, it just doesn’t matter as it will do whatever it will do and we’ll deal with it. 🙂

            I just have a feeling. I know the cold at the surface will be stubborn. I get that, but typically the warming comes in aloft faster than forecast. So we shall see. Either way it’s going to be very Wintry.

            1. If it warms faster aloft, that’s more sleet initially, and then we still have to watch for icing, even in the city. I’ve seen this set-up too many times to turn my back on it.

          2. That puts you right at the NWS snow map. You’re taking the overs I assume. You can book it at FanDuel. 🙂

            1. Even or slightly over .. I feel good with my 3-6 for Boston. But there are people out there that will tell me I’m wrong even if Boston gets 3, even though I said 3-6. Head-scratcher. But as I said, I think Boston will come in over 4 for the entire event.

              2. People always gravitate to the larger number in the world of weather ….snowfall, temperatures, wind speeds etc. It would help if TV and online weather professionals could provide a touch of education BUT the bosses like the bigger numbers too.

                1. Yes they do, and I mentioned this about a colleague who made a forecast and was told by her boss to “go bigger”. She did not. And she was correct. But when I forecast, I use ranges, and have to frequently remind people that the range is there for a reason.

    1. We have not made a lot of progress. I keep hoping this winter will help. I think the Quabbin is somewhere around 85% of capacity which I think is in the acceptable range.

  73. CPC…

    6-10: Below normal temps, near to above normal precip.
    8-14: Below normal temps, near to below normal precip.
    Weeks 3 & 4: Below normal temps, near to above normal precip.

  74. Reiterating my snowfall accumulation forecast (prior to change-over), so I’m not misquoted by anybody…

    1 to 3 inches south of I-90 and 3 to 6 inches elsewhere (along and north of I-90) except 6 to 8 inches in some locations of southern NH and north central MA.

    This is still the same, based on all info I have looked at since posting it this morning. The next full update will be posted in the morning!

  75. My concern behind this system is for wind gusts of 50 to 60 MPH in open areas and higher elevations on Monday.

  77. I have been noticing from the ice accretion maps posted here today that even the South Coast is involved. I can’t remember ever seeing that. I’m beginning to wonder now if Boston gets icy as well.

  78. Eric mentioned along with 1”+ rainfall that there is a possibility of thunder and lightning on Sunday as well.

    It appears this upcoming event is going to have a good punch all right!

    Eric also mentioned that the rainfall will NOT wash all the snow away!

  80. 18z ECMWF snowfall forecast before any mix and change…

    2-4 South Coast. 4-6 elsewhere except 6-8 portions of north central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire.

  81. Wish we still had Arod posting. If you are reading Arod, you are missed. Haven’t had any blockbusters to discuss but still enjoyed your posts.

      1. This is more rain than anything else along the coast . It will be in to the upper 30s sundar by 7 & upper 50s by mid afternoon. Sure it may start as snow but warm air will win out .

  84. Arrived here in Rumford ME. 13F and nice to see large snowbanks everywhere. We are under a Winter Storm Watch for heavy snow and sleet with 6”+ but they haven’t pulled the trigger on the warning yet. Doesn’t look to get started up here until after midnight Saturday.

    1. Haven’t looked too much more at that event since this morning, but my leaning is still something a little bit further offshore versus a big hit.

  86. Several inches of snow with significant icing on top of that for most of southern New England. More snow before the changeover north and less just away from the Southcoast. Most interior portions of southern New England see 4-6 inches before a change to sleet and freezing rain. I think the majority of the storm is frozen except the immediate south shore, cape, and islands. It’s going to take well into Sunday for most surface temps to climb above the freezing mark.

  87. Monday ….

    TK, Eric F and NWS discussion all have mentioned …..

    The wind !! Very windy with impressive gusts.

  88. As I said would be the case, the winter weather advisory was expanded to include, Boston, Plymouth, and Providence.

    NWS elected to wait until the early morning update to do so, and they explained why in their discussion.

    1. They had a nice write up.

      One thing with this system is that it certainly has more QPF to work with. Helps with the draught even though the soil is cold and frozen so probably a lot of runoff. But NWS mentioned 1-1.5 inches after the snow.

  89. Monday-Tuesday look might chilly. Amazed we are going to have to 3 months of winter all below average, yet below average snow so I think we make up for that shortly. Fascinating stuff.

    1. We had a stretch of winters from the end of the 1970s to the early 1980s that were all colder than normal with below normal snowfall. Cold/dry patterns. That’s what we had the first half of this winter. The second half is underway with a much more active pattern, as was indicated would be the case.

  90. My comment at 10:36 being referred to troll bowl. Not sure I understand, but whatever. Has nothing to do with Charles

  91. Attention after this storm turns to the wind. HIGH WIND WATCH for all of SNE Sunday evening through Mon evening! If there is ice accretion on the trees and you add the wind gusts projected you could be looking at some power issues.

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