Thursday February 13 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)

172 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A light snowfall occurred over much of the region overnight, and a snow-to-rain changeover has made its way across most of the region from south to north during pre-dawn, located at the time of this writing in the Merrimack Valley so that areas to the north are still snowing. Some of the areas raining are just below freezing in sections of interior MA, with pockets of icing. Overall, the trend to plain rain continues through mid morning, but as our wind shifts from a light easterly to an increasing westerly as the axis of elongated low pressure moves north of our region, we’ll start a dry-out process, albeit a slow one, during the midday and afternoon hours today. While it clears out tonight, the temperature drops significantly, and any still-wet, untreated surfaces will become icy. Fair weather will dominate on Friday but along with cold air and windy conditions as high pressure builds our way via the Great Lakes / Midwest and low pressure deepens in eastern Canada. High pressure then moves overhead Friday night, which will be quite cold, then drifts away Saturday as the next low pressure system approaches. This complex system is going to impact our weather all 3 days of the Presidents Day Weekend. Saturday, it brings an initial batch of snow into the region during the afternoon and evening that deposits up to a few inches. A brief lull occurs after this, before a second and main surge of precipitation arrives Sunday morning, lasting into Sunday evening. This area of precipitation will be crossing the region as it warms aloft but cold air is stubborn to give way at the surface, resulting in a precipitation variety depending on timing and location – sleet, freezing rain, and rain – the details of which still need to be fine-tuned. Greatest icing potential will be away from the immediate coast. We can see a switch back to snow at least for part of the region depending on how fast colder air comes back in as the system begins its departure during Sunday evening. Behind it, an immediate freeze-up of any wet/untreated surfaces will take place Sunday night. On Monday, the departing low will still be battering out region with wind and cold, and while it’s mainly dry I can’t rule out a few passing snow flurries.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with snow to rain/ice southern NH, rain elsewhere, tapering to drizzle, then ending. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, variable, then W 5-15 MPH later.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 7-14. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Clouding over quickly. Snow likely in the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow continuing, may mix with or turn to sleet / rain South Coast before tapering off overnight. Snow accumulation generally 1 to 3 inches. Temperatures steady 22-29 evening, rising to 28-35 overnight, mildest South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH, shifting to E 5-15 MPH along the South Coast.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Precipitation returns as sleet / ice / rain (plain rain most likely South Coast / Cape Cod with a combo of freezing / frozen inland, possibly transitioning to a plain rain with time for a portion of the region. Highs 30-37, coldest interior valley areas north and west of Boston. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast, but still N under 10 MPH some interior valley locations.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain/ice likely turning to snow with a possible small accumulation before ending. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Windy, cold, dry February 18. Less wind, cold, dry February 19. Watching a potential storm impact February 20 to early February 21 with a snow chance. Fair weather again end of period, with continued below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

At least one, possibly 2 more storm threats during this period. Temperatures below normal.

172 thoughts on “Thursday February 13 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Up to 35 here. Looks like about an inch or so fell overnight. Melting now…

  2. I do hope we get at least one bigger snow event before the end of the season.

    The 20th or so looks promising, but who knows for sure.

    Gfs has been delivering on again off again teases. Euro looks good for the 20th or so. We shall see.

      1. Hello TK, I don’t write often but always look forward to what you have to say about weather every day. I would like to send you a note (or make a telephone call) about a Woburn function we are working on for Tuesday mid-morning. May I have a few minutes of your time?

        Thank you!
        Linda

  5. Thanks TK.

    It snowed lightly for over 6 hours last night here in Coventry and we had picked up about an inch before I even went to bed. Just had a period of freezing rain come through and it’s all slush now. Kids are on 2 hour delay.

    1. Euro looked a bit southeast and colder for this weekend as well but still on the warmer side of guidance.

  7. Just cleaned up. Cleared about 1/2 to 3/4 inch from car. With rain, melting and settling, 1 inch total sounds reasonable. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK. Planning birthday dinner out for wife Sunday in metro west. Any early thoughts on the weather around 6?

  16. Thank you, TK!

    Maybe 1/2 inch to an inch here. Our two roads were treated but not plowed from what I can tell.

  17. I measured 2″ of snow while being pelted in the back of the head with huge raindrops like water balloons.

      1. Another model suggesting the weekend system’s low is passing SE of most areas.

        Not an all snow JUST north and west of the track, as before that, the setup allows for moderation of some parts of the column in southern areas.

    1. I don’t know if the sfc low late Sunday will cool the entire column off before the precip ends, but inland, its going to cut off any marine air getting inland and then it will probably cause the sfc winds to go light north, redraining in colder air at the sfc. Big impact possible inland Sunday on frz rain, but hopefully column will be thickly cold enough for sleet.

  22. I can’t remember the last time I liked a 6z run of any model better than its 00z run, but thats the case today with the GFS.

    At 500 mb, the Euro has an impressive 500 mb closed low in 7-8 days and it has had it on previous runs. It is why I like the 6z GFS, because it has it also. The 00z GFS at 500 mb has this trof that passes by to the north and I don’t see much else that shows that.

    I continue to think this next one is the potential powerhouse storm of the winter so many would like to see.

    1. Could be. We’ll continue to watch and see.
      With last nights little bit and the weekend potential of a few inches, a big one next week would get Boston awfully close
      to its seasonal average snowfall and within TK’s
      prediction of 40-50 inches.

      2. Funny thing is I think next week’s threat may end up further offshore than current modeling suggests. It’s something not seen by guidance that’s a bigger threat….or will be.

        2. If you look at the ensembles, current modeling does support the more offshore track that you are thinking. EPS is SE of the operational (posted above) and the GEFS is a mess with members all over the place. There is definitely potential there as well as for the week that follows. I like the look of the trough setting up over the East during that time period.

  23. Tom I agree with you. Hopefully the column will be cold enough for sleet. You get the freezing rain the 12z NAM is showing that is the kind of icing that could bring down trees and accumulate on power lines which COULD lead to some power outages.

  26. It doesn’t give the Freezing Rain QPF like the NAM does. Looking at that I would say equal to if not greater icing for the inland areas. My part of CT stays in that freezing rain all day Sunday.

      1. Yes, you and JMA made that clear.

        However, I have seen the RDPS version be pretty accurate at times. The GDPS, well, fine to the MOON!!!!!!

        I would not be so hasty discarding the RDPS. 🙂
        But what do I know. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  30. TK – If I understood you correctly above, you believe that it’s possible the 20th event could end up more offshore. Usually I would be disappointed but I have a medical appointment on that date. I am going to try and get a ride to and from the hospital but I would prefer clear roads. Is that at least possible at this time?

  32. I don’t know what kind of different, but I’m nearly confident something different is coming on the 12z GFS for 7-8 days out, compared to its 00z run.

    This is because, there are massive differences on its hr 132 panel compared to its 00z run at 500 mb with a closed low and where it is near the US/Canada border.

  34. Pea soup fog here. If this keeps up, there’s not going to be much snow left on the ground by end of day. Fog is known as a “snow eater”.

    1. Maybe a VERY light fog here.

      Temperature is: 39

      It is not the fog, it is the mild temperature and moisture that causes the fog.

      1. I consulted the snow gods. The 20th is a miss / mostly a miss but the big one after that has at least a shot for all the marbles.

        Dave, just put in an order for how much you want for the next big one and I’ll see what I can do.

  36. Do we really think this Saturday storm is going to be impactful & especially Boston / south . I feel like it’s getting hyped on tv & it’s probably not going to be anything of big deal , some places it will be

    1. I think it will be early on in the strung out event. Even on the south shore, likely some snow then a bit of sleet.

      Yes, the middle has an increased chance of rain and wet streets.

      But yes, more impactful than today’s was, even down here.

    2. As I have stated, it is not about the snow amount, but it is about the temperature profile of the atmosphere, including the surface. It is also about the potential variation from one end of that storm to the other across the entire region.

      Don’t dismiss this event as not impactful, because it will be. Always remember not to be influenced by the backyard bias. You may only be concerned with a handful of square feet, but I am forecasting for a very large area, so I’m concerned with all of it.

      1. Correct N&W should get some decent snow . But don’t you think it’s safe to say Sunday is a washout from Boston right through the cape . Of course you get a short window of opportunity for some snow down here on the front end Saturday night , but how much remains to be seen . One thing is certain Monday & beginning of next week will be very cold .

        1. It’s not only about the snow. I have concerns of a potential period of icing even there, and then a rapid freeze at the end of the storm.

          Impact comes in more forms than total snowfall.

  37. No surprise on the grazing for the 20th as ensemble means are all off shore. BUT, way too close for comfort and plenty of time still to trend this closer. What happens with the weekend will likely affect the placement of features for early next week.

    2. Keep in mind, I have not made that my final call on that system, but it is my current leaning.

  39. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025021312&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025021312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025021312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    SSK, the first link will show you, its projected to be snowing 1 hr prior to 00z. I know that because the snow echoes (blue) are east of our area. 6 hrs later, its still projected to be snowing and the blues are darker. The Euro is already at 2″ for our area and now, looking at 6 hrs later, its got about 4 inches of snow for our area before a changeover.

    I also agree with TK, its not the amount of snow that can define impact. But at this point, there will be some impact down here. Yes, not to the extent of inland, but there is likely to be some impact. Ok ?????????????????????????? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  40. What I take from the Euro, the UKMET , the NAM and yes, even the RDPS is that the cold will hold on longer this weekend and we will get a decent thump of upfront snow before any changeover.
    How much? early guess: 2-5 inches or so. And given the trends, perhaps a bit more. We shall see.

    Just my thoughts.

      1. Agreed on 2-4″. There is so much handwringing about if we get 1″ or 5″ of snow…

        Short summary – this storm – starts as snow everywhere. Further south and east you are the earlier it transitions to a mix then rain. Further north and west, the later it transitions. Above 800 feet, I am not totally sure they ever get to rain, but the 540 line will be well into VT and NH on Sunday, so its not going to be a snowstorm. Those elevated areas will experience the most significant impact. Areas where Sunday is mostly rain, will see a lot of the Saturday snow disappear. Not a simple forecast, but simple enough to explain in broad strokes.

        For my broken record response – the 10:1 snow map, not helpful, your weather app, is the opposite of helpful, and is harmful…

  41. I keep getting questions off this grid today regarding an app forecast for 10-13 inches of snow for “the area” this weekend.

    It’s not right.

    If you see anyone post it, debunk it please. 🙂

      1. App…
        Not sure which.

        But there is also a facebook page forecaster out there who is doing something very similar.And just getting a lot of shares of that really bad “forecast”.

  42. 4 Nations Face-Off hockey tonight:

    USA vs Finland.

    Canada beat Sweden last night 4-3 in OT in a thriller. Marchand plays for Canada.

    1. Awesome game last night. Looking forward to tonight. A certain colleague of mine who is a very big hockey fan is watching this tournament closely..right SAK?

      1. I caught some of that game, too, TK. It was very exciting. The second half of that tournament is in Boston next week, right?

        I also enjoyed the Beanpot final on Monday. Quite a game between two of the nation’s top teams.

      2. International Best-on-Best hockey is amazing to watch and I cannot get enough of it. I went to the USA/Canada and Canada/Slovakia games in Montreal for the 2004 World Cup. The atmosphere both before and during the USA/Canada game was like nothing I have ever experienced before or since.

        I have tickets for all 3 games in Boston next week (Canada/Finland and USA/Sweden Monday and the Championship Game Thursday).

  43. Can you give me a ballpark estimate on the wind for both tomorrow and Monday for metro west? Thanks.

  44. 12z Euro and 12z GFS now look very similar for the weekend. The GFS is actually now looking a little warmer with the rain penetrating further north

    12z Euro is a sideswipe for 2/20 but close enough to deliver a general 2-5″ with 6″+ for Cape and Islands.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025021312&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=

    12z EPS mean has come closer to the coast with some huge hits in there with some of the NW members.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2025021312&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=

    This one is going to be interesting to track!

    2. Not paying as much attention to the operational runs at 7 days out. They are going to keep varying quite a bit run to run. More interested in what the ensemble means are showing. See my link above. That was a nice shift NW from 0z and there are a quite a few stronger members closer to the coast. Promising sign!

  46. TK – Any early thoughts on snow/sleet/ice accumulation late Sunday prior to the storm departure?

    According to the tv mets = 1”+ rainfall daytime hours of Sunday.

    1. As written above, what falls from the sky will be mainly liquid Sunday, but the big question is where is it going down the drain and where is it freezing on surfaces? I don’t think there will be much accumulation at the end of the event. Most of that comes in part 1.

  47. Weak secondary low has formed right around Boston, maybe a tiny bit south.

    WNW winds in Merrimack Valley, Worcester, Providence.

    Calm winds in Boston, Beverly and Norwood closest to the low and SW winds from Marshfield, southeastward to Cape Cod.

  49. I think tomorrow will see winter weather advisories posted for a good chunk of SNE tomorrow.

  50. Primary focuses for the next 24 hours. Wind and black ice. These are both issues for portions of the region.

    NWS snow map is out for the first part of the storm – generally a coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 4 inches across the remainder of the WHW forecast area, highest amounts in the NW hills. I can agree with that – since it’s basically what I already said in a little less detail. 🙂

    I am now going to take a look a bit deeper into the rest of the event. Yes, I know people keep hearing “big rain event”. Ok here’s the issue…

    “Big rain event” is not around 1 inch or maybe 1.50. That’s a good moderate rain event. A big rain event would generally 2+ inches. The other issue is calling a mixed / variable precipitation event a rain event. It’s meteorologically incorrect, and it won’t be done here. I don’t care if your back yard gets 5 minutes of snow. If there is a variety of precipitation, it will be called WHAT IT IS. Arbitrary definitions don’t fly and all they do is confuse the message (which I write in my discussion on a daily basis).

    Now, back to my tea. 🙂

  53. For a good portion of the region, the snow is going to be the least of our worries from the upcoming event.

    Because snow is so focused on across social media, there are going to be some people caught off guard by the icing upcoming.

    When I said there is a public obsession with snow, I wasn’t kidding.

      1. Unfortunately it’s a reality, and back a few weeks ago WxW and others highlighted the upcoming pattern as being one that could feature some very messy storms. Well, it’s here. 🙂

        1. I know, but I don’t want any STINKEN ICE. Give ma all the snow in the world, but keep the ice away.

          How much of a problem will the ice be in the City?
          I am thinking somewhat less, but we may not escape totally.

          1. Probably not a huge issue, but if that surface cold is even more stubborn, it could become a problem real quickly. I would not rule out ice being an issue all the way to just inland from the South Coast in the worst case scenario.

            “Yeah but the models…” … Nope. They don’t see this stuff very well, at all.

    1. Thanks! Definitely share your concern about the potential ice event, and I feel it’s being overlooked at this point by many messengers.

      1. Umm, looking at the SAK’s info above and the models from Jimmy above, seems like a real potential for over .25″ ice accretion on Sunday (maybe more?) for Worcester County. That will be a big story, especially if the NAM is correct. That much ice really starts to cause tree and power issues.

        1. SAK & I were chatting about it off here – yes it’s a real threat.

          This upcoming system is really not about the snow, but the media seems so hyper-focused on snowfall. Everything is about snow accumulation. Yup, the snow causes an issue, but the ice can cause real problems.

          People need to stop fixating on snow so much. There’s more to weather than snow. My main problem is with those weather pages being run by people with no experience in real forecasting – these little details that makes a huge difference.

          Local media is starting to talk about it. Petey B. hit it fairly hard for Sunday. Their in-house guidance doesn’t even bring the 32 line up to Boston let alone beyond it. If that depiction is correct, there are problems right into the city.

  58. You start getting to that quarter inch half inch of icing you could start having some issues. For my part of CT looking at the 18z runs of the American models more concerned about the icing than the snow. We could handle 2-4 inches of snow. The ice different story.

    1. Indeed, it does. I don’t think I have enough ice melt for
      an ICE event. For a snow event, I have plenty, but an ice event, NOPE!!!!

  64. NBC News wins the “Stupidest Headline Of 2025 So Far” award today…

    “100+ Car Crash In Atmospheric River”

    Can I first ask how 100+ cars were traveling IN the jet stream? 😉

  66. Yikes on potential icing event. I was chatting with my minister today. I attend church remotely because church is in Framingham. We had zoom service last week and he’s hoping this week will be in person

    How does Sunday morning look

      1. In CT when we have these mix situation I-84 is the line our meteorologist use. In the setup for the weekend along and north and west of I-84 tends to keep the icy mix longer.

  68. NY got 0.2 inches from this past system.
    They are up to 12 inches so far this winter. Still a ways behind BOS.

  69. I’ll be back from Sarasota next Wednesday. I’m hoping no big storms. Im moving into a new apartment on Thursday. Im hoping for dry weather. It’s always works out when I want dry weather we get nailed!

  70. Awesome thanks. Wonderful blog. Thanks for all the time and hard work that goes into keeping us informed. Even with family illnesses.

  71. The 12z CFS is insane for a pattern conducive to snow opportunities through mid March or a good 4 weeks.

    1. It really does, and so do the Euro weeklies.

      But then again, this is the third time this year I have thought this and in the end, things haven’t materialized. At least in my backyard where I am at only 21” on the year. So going to keep my optimism guarded this time.

        1. Corporate doesn’t really dictate their social media accounts. But as for what’s wrong with it – even though he’s couching it with saying it won’t verify as this outcome… people will still see that and when the time comes will say he hyped it up and it was a “dud.” If you know something isn’t going to turn out like how it shows a week out, posting it is only opening yourself up to criticism.

        2. As a post, there’s technically nothing “wrong” with it. He’s free to make it. I wouldn’t make it because I know how many people will react, and it creates a distraction and starts rumors. Sadly, that’s on the people who do it. But it can be prevented by not making it. That’s why I wouldn’t make it. Instead I’d talk about it in a circle like this one. 🙂

          1. Fwiw I read it as this is what is showing on a model and how we cannot take something that far out as fact.

            I’ll agree to disagree. I wouldn’t be too sure about corporate not having a close eye on social media. I get tired of playing to the lowest common denominator. Those same people will unquestionably find something else to fault. Social media gives folks the ability to put every thing any poster does under a microscope. Our Mets are under a very skewed and very negative microscope as is.

  76. Not for nothing, but all pf the models are now showing a system for Thurs. all with varying intensities and track, but there..

  78. And more current, models trending colder for weekend with more up front snow
    nws now has 4-6 inches for Boston.

    1. I agree, but its strange because I feel like all the models really intensified the primary low too. The high to our north is going to be of equal force, I guess.

Comments are closed.