Wednesday February 12 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)

110 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Winter rolls on and we will be dealing with a couple more low pressure systems producing unsettled weather during the next several days. After one grazed our South Coast with a light snowfall last night, partial clearing occurred overnight, but clouds quickly come back in today ahead of the next low. These clouds are mainly high to mid level, but some lower clouds drifting in off the ocean may proda few snow flurries mainly I-95 eastwars. The upcoming low’s track will be a southwest-to-northeast course as opposed to the straight west-to-east grazer just before it. This drags warmer air in aloft, and somewhat at the surface too, so we’re looking at a snow (mix south) to rain event tonight into Thursday. The snow at the front end will accumulate but only a coating to an inch, with a few 1 to 3 inch amounts possible once you get to the Merrimack Valley north and west from there. As the system departs Thursday evening, a drop in temperature will quickly create ice on any untreated / still wet surfaces, so be aware of that! Friday, Valentine’s Day, will be fair, windy, and cold, and sets the stage for the next winter event. This is a complex low pressure system coming at us via the Midwest, and comes in two stages. The first is a push of snow Saturday afternoon and evening from an initial wave of low pressure, and a second stronger low will make a run at us on Sunday. While this low wants to track right across New England, likely north of the WHW forecast area, a lot of cold air will be trapped near the ground, especially away from the immediate coast, so while we see a snow to sleet to rain set-up, the rain will likely be of the freezing variety over these colder inland locations where it remains at or below freezing. The next update will detail this a little more. Colder air is ready to move back in aloft too as the low starts to pull to the northeast, and many of the areas that changed from snow to sleet/ice/rain can change back to snow later Sunday before it all comes to an end.

TODAY: Clouding up. A few snow flurries I-95 belt eastward. Highs 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening, possibly already mixed with rain South Coast. Snow then changes to sleet and rain overnight, with a period of freezing rain possible over some inland locations. Temperatures rise to 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with rain tapering to drizzle then ending. Breaking clouds later in the day. Areas of fog morning and midday. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, variable, then W 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 7-14. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Clouding over quickly. Snow likely in the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice/rain returns. Temperatures slowly rise to 28-35. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Sleet/ice/rain, changing back to snow northwest to southeast by late-day. Highs 30-37, but slowly falling temperatures later. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Storm threat around February 20, otherwise fair and cold weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

At least one, possibly 2 more storm threats during this period. Temperatures below normal.

110 thoughts on “Wednesday February 12 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  3. TK, so glad your Mom is doing so well to come home!

    JMA, please know of my prayers for your love one, you and your family for peace and consolation at this difficult time.

  4. 20 degrees warmer this morning than yesterday. Haven’t seen a lot of the sun lately!

  5. NY 1.5 inches of snow last night.
    Snow for the season now up to 11.9 inches.
    What is BOS total?

  8. Philip what is BOS snow total for the season so far?
    NY with 1.5 inches last night is up to 11.9 inches of snow for the season.

  10. NY is going to have to make a comeback likes the 1978 Yankees did if they are going to beat BOS in the snowfall standings.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Isn’t it special that with all the cold we have had that warmer air comes in for sleet/rain

  17. Looking forward to those noontime coastal flurries. Snowflakes in general are not going to be very common around here the rest of the week into the weekend. There is also the full Snow Moon but little snow to show for it.

    1. Actually it’s going to tonight, Saturday afternoon, and later Sunday, so they’ll be quite common. 🙂

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025021206&fh=30&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025021206&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Notice the difference in the Thursday vs Sunday system.

    The Thursday system has a decent primary low near Buffalo. That is accompanied by a significant surge of mild air aloft and eventually some milder air at the surface. Thus, the initial snow should be very brief. Yes, some inland areas are at risk for a decent icing event.

    But look at Sunday. Its evolving into a longer, strung out event. The initial blob of precip is not associated with a decent primary low, its just warm air advection that wont warm the column as quickly. I do think the Sunday system has the potential to put down a bigger amount of snow/sleet at the start compared to tomorrow.

    1. Absolutely! I was just noticing that. We shall see.

      TK thinks the weekend event could be interesting.

      1. Yes, some suggestions that later in the strung out event, the sfc low has a chance to slip underneath us, so that could help out too.

        1. Maybe. One never knows.
          But I can remember over the years countless times where
          the outcome was COLDER than expected. We shall see.

  20. With regards to 8-10 days out, of course, if a system were to form but misses OTS, it won’t really matter much that ……….

    That system could be more explosive. Its a 500 mb setup that is conducive to a more traditional winter storm that New England is known for. It has a much higher ceiling than any of these events we’ve been having in the SE ridge pattern for intensity, coastal effects and even precip production.

  23. I know JMA said to IGNORE the GFS, but I can’t help myself.
    Look at this Big Kahuna

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025021212&fh=201&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Some pretty INTENSE SNOW depicted in this fantasy run!!!

    24 hour Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025021212&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    run total out to hour 246

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021212&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Happy to hear about your Mom.

    JMA, I’m very sorry to hear about your loved one’s health.

    Regarding robins, some stay and some go. That is, we have migratory robins and ones who stay year-round. I think it’s programmed in individual robins from birth what they’ll do. So, they’re not deciding on a whim in early autumn “should I stay or should I go now” and chirping The Clash song’s melody while doing so.

  25. I’m not in my home in Boston – actually not home much at all for 5 months – as I’m taking care of a sick relative. Hence, not much posting from me.

    I am in SNE, though. Glad it’s been a real winter thus far. Sure, I could do with more snow. But at least the temps have been wintry, there’s been some snow, and perhaps more at some point down the road. Still plenty of time for that, though signs of spring abound: Daylight hours, sun angle, slightly increased bird activity which includes owls (they’re early birds when it comes to mating and nest-making).

      1. I’ve seen plenty of birds here in Quincy particularly Canada geese, ducks, seagulls as well as the typical tiny birds. Haven’t seen many pigeons like back in Boston though.

    2. Hi Joshua. So nice to hear from you. But very sorry you are caring for a sick relative. Prayers for you all.

      I am sure I’ve mentioned the Merlin app here before. It’s a great way to identify and learn about each bird. And if anyone uses FB, wildlife of Worcester county and beyond is a terrific page. No politics. Just wildlife

      1. Hi Joshua. Hope you’ll be staying around here for at least the rest of the winter and enjoying more snowfall in the weeks ahead. 🙂

  27. Thank you TK!

    JMA, very sorry to hear of your family member’s health issue. Will keep you and your family in my prayers.

    TK, hope mom is resting and enjoying being back at home.

  28. Chicago and a lot of the Midwest have been having a paltry winter so far. Before todays little event, Chicago has only recorded 10” of snow on the season, the lowest total to date since 1944.

  29. The robins should wear uniform numbers like hockey players so we can identify those who winter here and those who return. Maybe file flight plans, too. 🙂

  30. Hi Everyone, Thank you for your kind and warm thoughts. My mom is 96 and has led a very independent life. My father who was five years younger than my mother (mom was a cradle robber) died at age 58, so she has led a long, independent life. She is now late in life and is rapidly declining. We celebrate her long life and hope for a peaceful final transition.

    Unfortunately, my brother received terminal health news and its a matter of unknown time, with known decline for him, some of which he is already experiencing.

    Again, thank you my online friends, you are appreciated.

    9. I am so very sorry, JMA. I’m sending prayers for comfort for your mom, your brother and for you and your family.

  32. ECMWF has had a total meltdown of its external systems including its mass distribution servers, its web servers, and email servers. Internal client systems were not impacted. Thus no 12z model suite today. This should not negatively harm the quality of the model output, but I would still be a bit hesitant to swallow without tasting anything that comes out for 12z and 18z today.

    Though it is still probably better than the GFS / GGEM output…

  35. After the light snowfall last night Bridgeport where the shoreline records are kept might be close if not a little head of BDL for snowfall this season.

  36. Wild pattern on the 12z GFS the last 10 days of February with that trough setting up over the East…. Dave posted the 2/20 big kahuna above and the GFS follows it up with another potent coastal storm around 2/25:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025021212&fh=312&dpdt=&mc=

    Looks to be gearing up for a third at the end of its run.

    Similar evolution on the 0z Euro with threats around the same time periods. One miss and one hit verbatim on the overnight run.

    Pattern looks good but then again, we have been down this road before. Havent even had to use the snowblower this week for all of that 30″ of modeled snow the GFS was consistently laying down last week….

    1. The snowfall amounts are a little below in some places, near or even a touch above in some others, but overall, this is about as “typical” a snowfall distribution one would expected to see, in terms of the lean areas vs. the higher amount areas. This is a very “typical” New England winter so far, albeit on the colder side of normal.

  39. Latest Euro Weeklies…..

    -Cold, below normal right through March (well below normal Feb 17-27).
    -Maintains east coast trough and west coast ridge through first week of March.
    -Dry first week of March , other than that very active.

    1. Just when I thought last week’s GFS runs couldn’t be surpassed….

      My fictitious snowbanks are getting higher and higher!

      It’s those two coastal bombs on 2/20 and 2/25 driving this. Note the GEFS is farther off shore for the 20th threat than the GFS op. It’s still an 8 day threat though, plenty of time. There is some real potential there for something bigger, above and beyond all these little nickel and dime storms.

  42. As gloomy as its been today, not a snowflake to be had. I am somewhat surprised considering I’m much closer to the ocean than I when I lived in Boston (Dorchester). Oh well. ❄️

    1. my general rule of thumb is mixing and knocked back totals usually happen a lot sooner than you want and expect.

        1. I’m not thinking Saturday is going to be a big deal around these parts , Sunday looks like rain all day

      2. Or later, because the guidance leads one to believe the cold air is being pushed out sooner than it is. 🙂 This becomes rather common at this point in winter and going forward.

  44. The ECMWF from 12z is running, but take it with a grain of salt like any operational model run, maybe a bit more than typically in this case.

    Quick weather thoughts…

    Tonight/Thursday: No changes to the thinking other than the colder air may hang on a bit longer with the overnight snow to sleet to rain / ice on a slightly slower timeline. Thing is, the moisture may be lacking initially, so this doesn’t make me think “more snow” which was already a paltry expectation anyway.

    Thursday night: Anything wet turns to ice in a quick hurry late evening.

    Valentine’s Day: Windy, cold, “brrr” but not “brrrutal”. Dry weather though – nice for anyone going out to movies / dinner / whatever.

    Weekend system: No changes to my ideas posted this morning. Favor the cold being more stubborn than the guidance shows. This is NOT a just look at the guidance and that’s the forecast kind of set-up. Meteorology for the win on this one.

    Next week is one of the first time the set-up looks a little more “classic”, but I think the threat around the 20th may end up evolving a bit south and east of where we’d need it for a big snow here. HOWEVER. This is over a week away. Lots of salt grains on this…

    Our biggest snow threat this month is one that is not yet seen by the medium range guidance.

    I generally agree with the idea of cold being more persistent the rest of February, and March, and a more-active-than-not pattern.

    1. I have a medical appointment on 2/20 anyway. I had a medical appointment last month on 1/8 which ended up cold & dry. Gee, what a coincidence. 😉

      From 2/21 to 2/28: LET IT SNOW! LET IT SNOW! ❄️❄️❄️ 🙂

  47. A bit surprised to see accumulating snow this early. Driveway is covered, now back home in Coventry.

  48. TK – Could Sunday end as snow? I believe Waunkum is the only tv met to mention the possibility.

  50. Trying to keep a positive feel. If this were late October to mid November, I’d be glued to the window watching.

  51. I’m getting the sense the weekend storm will be more strung out and colder…..interesting times ahead…

    1. Quick look at the 0z GFS and GDPS they look colder for the weekend with a nice 2-4 3-5 inch thump of snow before going to a mix and then rain. Parts of the interior never go over to plain rain.

      1. I’m getting more confident we are not done seeing guidance adjust to what ends up a colder storm still. I have not changed my idea on this.

          1. It may trend even to the point that the icing is more of an issue to the south and areas to the north and west are all frozen (snow & sleet).

        1. It was supposed to be. I mentioned above that everything would run later on the timeline.

  53. I’ve seen snow, sleet or maybe freezing rain and some rain so far and the plow came up and pushed a bunches of slush away. I was thinking of walking this AM, but concerned about the footing.

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