Tuesday February 11 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A cold high pressure area deflects approaching low pressure south of our region from late today through early Wednesday, with an area of snow only skirting the South Coast. High pressure loses grip enough so the next low to impact the region Wednesday night into Thursday is a direct hit, but with more ability to warm aloft, and somewhat at the surface, a snow to mix / rain event is likely. The bulk of the precipitation may move through before the change is complete, or can last long, before dry air cuts it off. Fair weather then follows for Friday as an area of high pressure builds in. Clouds return Saturday ahead of the next approaching storm system, which brings in a chance of snow by Saturday night. Even at “day 5”, guidance varies quite a bit in simulated outcomes with this system’s arrival and evolution, so this forecast day has a greater than typical chance of varying / changing compared to a typical day 5, including a scenario where arrival is much sooner, but for now leaning toward the later (nighttime) arrival.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, mainly South Coast region, accumulating a dusting to 1/2 inch. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives, accumulates up to a few inches, then changes to sleet / ice / rain. Lows 18-25 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain ending by midday. Patchy fog. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 7-14. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Weekend storm system into Sunday (Feb 16) with a snow/mix/rain probability. Precip type and distribution is TBD – current leaning is for a colder more frozen precip type system than most of the guidance shows. Fair weather follows for mid period. Next storm threat is late period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The beginning of the period can be unsettled with a winter storm potential, followed by a trend to mostly fair but cold weather.

76 thoughts on “Tuesday February 11 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)”

    1. Ya think?
      gfs total run kuchera snow 38 or 39 inches. Fat chance of that, but something is brewing.

      euro and cmc much less.

    2. The entire pattern is – and pretty much spelled out for everybody quite a while ahead of its occurrence. No surprises here! 🙂

  2. Thanks TK !

    Good radiational cooling this morning, lots of single digits. The car windows were slow to defrost.

  7. Seasonal Snowfall to date: ❄️

    ORH = 26.8”
    BOS = 22.3”
    NYC = 10.4”

    DC could get a moderate snowstorm later today/night. I heard that it would put them above normal for the season.

      1. Yes, it is. Now that would make my Winter!
        So that means it AIN’T HAPPENING!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  9. Thanks TK.

    What a monster coastal storm that the GFS and Euro are spitting out for 2/20. 20-30” from the latest 6z run for that storm alone. There is ensemble support from something bigger around that time period as well. Still a long ways off though.

    1. Possibly coming during a pattern transition from the SE ridge pattern to more of a western ridge to eastern trof pattern.

      Adds some believability to it.

    2. 1/2 that amount would be pretty big. 1 foot snowstorms are not a common occurrence. I think the last one was 2022 … maybe?

  10. 22F here right now and it will be a close call on going past 32F.

    At this time of the year, walking the shore becomes interesting. I leave before the sun comes up over the horizon and by the time I am on my way back, it’s up and the warmth is very noticeable.

  11. For once, I don’t want to see that storm come to fruition in any form. Flying out of Logan to Chicago mid morning on the 20th

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025021100&fh=132&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025021100&fh=132&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025021100&fh=360&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025021100&fh=360&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Top 2 links are the 500 mb pattern for Sunday, the one we’ve been in for some time. It has the negative AO look and the dominant SE Ridge

    The bottom 2 links are the 500 mb pattern after the projected big storm 10 days from now. Its quite different. Guessing strong +PNA pattern.

    And this projected big storm occurs in the transition btwn the 2.

    1. During the big projected storm, the pattern is transitioning.

      There’s still a big 500 mb ridge, but it is shifting from a SE ridge, where the ridge is over Florida into the SE US out more to a Bermuda High location, which lets an impressive 500 mb disturbance to be a lot closer to the US east coast, instead of over the great lakes.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025021100&fh=240&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025021100&fh=240&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

      In essence, it’s in the process of shifting everything a few to several hundred miles eastward from the current pattern.

        1. If that 500 mb transition is in place, yes !!

          The $64,000 from this far out is, is that going to happen and at the right speed. If everything hasn’t moved as far east, it could be a milder scenario, if everything has moved too far east, it could be OTS.

          But, I’m encouraged the EURO is sending a signal for it.

          I’m also encouraged that I’ll be watching from central FL, lol 🙂 🙂 🙂

  18. Maybe I will see some flakes tonight. Best chance of a coating CT shoreline. Will see how much NY could get a little closer to BOS in the snowfall standings.

    1. Well it’s 9 days out with let’s say an average of 4 model runs/day so it should only change 36 times.

    2. It’s showing up consistently run to run (and has Euro and ensemble support)….all you can ask for at this time range.

      1. Agree, consistency is what we look for. I wonder if consistency or inconsistency this far out makes a difference in the final outcome.

        1. Coastal storm is still there on 2/20, as are two more threats right after it. Trough is just set up further east on this run so they pass just SE of us and miss out to sea. The pattern and threats are there, just is going to depend on the trough placement. Tom was just discussing this above earlier.

  25. Be very wary of the ECMWF temp forecast for Sunday. It’s too warm. Common issue, not seeing the impact of cold brought in by the first part of the system late Saturday.

  26. Hi all! Just got mom home from hospital – no rehab needed!

    She’s changed into comfy pj’s and resting in her favorite chair before dinner. 🙂

    Things are under control – an antibiotic (for a week) and some new (changed) meds should keep things in a better place for now, hopefully for quite a while.

    Weather…

    Tonight: On track, graze by a system passing to the south, <1 inch of snow South Coast.

    Wed PM to Thu early afternoon: Same deal. Some snow at first. I think the maximum potential accumulation for snow is 3 inches, though most areas end up under that. I don't think once we mix / rain it's going to be that heavy, so if there is enough accumulation to cover things, it's not going to just "wash away" where that happens, especially since this is not going to be accompanied by a big warm up of any kind. Whatever is wet or slush/snow by Thursday night is going to freeze up completely as the cold air establishes and then hangs around for a while... This plays a role in the upcoming system(s).

    Weekend: Looking more like a 2-part event. Potentially a few to even several inches of snow on Saturday PM / evening. Mid part of the storm looks like it warms enough aloft, but stays really chilly at the surface for pretty much all of the region except maybe the South Coast, where it could go to rain. Sleet and/or freezing rain can be an issue elsewhere Saturday night and Sunday morning, with a significant icing event NOT out of the question for at least a part of this area. But wait there's more. It looks like the moisture may hang around long enough for it to get cold enough aloft to snow again later Sunday before it finally ends. And then we stay cold early next week. A little tundra imitation? Certainly possible.

    Next week: Eyeing a potential significant storm sometime around the middle or end of the week. A lot of moving parts to this, and still scattered afar, only "seen" by our guidance and simulated with at least some error. So as I always say, don't worry about details run-to-run of any model, just know that we're eyeing this period for a potential significant winter storm event, and this one may have a little more dynamic set-up to accompany it. But let's not jump the gun. We've a long way to go and several other things to get through first...

    Have a good evening!

    4. Great news on your Mom TK. I pray for good health for her and your family.

      Looks like a miserable weekend for weather. I’m hoping icing doesn’t happen.

  29. TK – Good to read on your mom. Today, has been a horrible family health day on my end, so I am so happy for you and your family.

    Full agreement with you. Saturday / Sunday areas above 800 feet could have a VERY significant icing event.

    Beyond that , who knows? Please continue to ignore the GFS and GGEM.

    My current choices ECMWF/NAM/NAM 3K/HRRR/ECENS. The other ENS are too polluted by their OPS.

    1. Thank you JMA. I’m sorry to hear about your own family health issues I hope they improve quickly.

    2. Hoping the family health issues can be overcome and things are better soon!

      Also thank you for your weather thoughts. We’ll see how it goes, as always…

    3. Unfortunately there is no reversal of our family health conditions. Only extended time, comfort, and peace.

      Yes, the online weather world is gross. Does it matter that much if we get 2″ or 20″ of snow in the next month? It is just water..

  30. I’m very late to the party.

    Thank you, TK

    Most important, what wonderful news that your mom is home and does not need rehab. I love the picture of her comfy in her favorite chair in her PJs

    Weather wise we hit 4 overnight.

  31. Fantastic news about mom and I bet those PJ’s feel more comfortable than ever. Feed her a nice dinner and hope she has a nice relaxing evening.

    2. There are people out there on the net that would (unfairly) rip those apart for being “too different” but there isn’t anything wrong with any of them as forecasts. Even if some of the numbers are different. I’m going to be sparing nothing on defending the forecasters in this area against the ignorance that permeates so many social media platforms. People have gotten really mean, and it’s not ok.

      1. On my little corner of the internet, people rip into anyone that try to attack forecasters… so at least there are some havens out there!

      2. It’s become the norm to hate. I understand this can be considered political and honestly I don’t care because it’s absolutely true. It comes from the top

    3. Thanks Dr. S! Your maps confirm what I posted about Eric’s thoughts. I don’t recall if he had a map shown during his first evening broadcast.

  36. Much like our trip back from Sugarbush VT MLK weekend, looks like I am going to have a hell of a drive back from Sunday River ME on Sunday evening.

  37. So close on the South Coast yet so far. Snow made it to edge of shoreline and was blocked from going any further.

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