Monday February 10 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

An area of high pressure brings us a break in the action today with fair weather. The next low pressure system in our active pattern will be one that passes south of the region Tuesday night, bringing a light snowfall to the South Coast while the rest of the region stays dry. Another low pressure area heads into the Northeast later Wednesday through Thursday, but this one will have a more direct impact on our region as a primary low heads into the Great Lakes and a secondary low forms close to or over our area. This system looks somewhat similar to the one we had last Thursday – starting as snow and going to sleet and rain before ending later Thursday. There are still a few uncertainties and details to work out with that one. High pressure builds in behind it with another fair weather day Friday.

TODAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Areas of black ice through mid morning. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of black ice re-form. Lows 5-12. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, mainly from the I-90 region southward, accumulating a dusting to 1 inch. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives, accumulates up to a few inches, then changes to sleet / ice / rain (details TBD). Lows 18-25 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain ending by midday. Patchy fog. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Next storm threat comes later February 15 through February 16 with a variety of precipitation – details TBD. Fair weather returns mid to late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

66 thoughts on “Monday February 10 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    It is,Feb 10th. Time is marching on

    Getting tired of all these dinky dunky snow events. Where’s the beef????? Looks like it is not in the cards this season.

    Oh well, better than the last 2 years.

    Congrats to the Eagles!!! I am so happy about that!!!!

    2. We can’t really call them off the entire season. It’s the current pattern. We don’t know yet what happens later this month and into March. Although, the most recent snow event was definitely not “dinky”. It was moderate.

        1. I understand we can’t call them off for the season. I was merely stating that time is wasting……

  4. Thanks, TK:

    13 degrees at Oh-600.

    I went to bed when Tom Brady said: “All the Chiefs need to do is to get four touchdowns and four, two-point conversions and they’re back in it.”

    1. Did he really say that? His career is doomed. Even in jest, it was inappropriate at best. 🙂

      1. It didn’t seem in jest, it’s his job to try to keep people tuned in and give a glimmer of hope even if there is none. He was trying to say that there was still a chance like the patriots had with him at the helm, even though the chiefs were not playing like that patriots team.

    2. I think the world of Brady but I’m not sure announcer fits him. Many greats have moved to another area of sports that just doesn’t fit after retirement.

    1. I didn’t realize what this number really represents until Alyssa Andrews gave the definition yesterday. It’s not measuring the days since Boston had a 6″ snowfall from a single storm. Instead it’s measuring the days since Boston had 6″ of snow in a calendar day. So if a storm dropped 5.9″ before midnight and another 5.9″ after midnight, that 11.8″ snowfall would not break the streak.

      Weird statistics indeed 🙂

  9. While the next event, at this time, appears to be not all snow, the current timing has snow starting around 9z and its either snowing or changing to sleet at 12z.

    So the timing of the wintery precip part might require delays or cancellations Thursday.

    We’ll see. Kind of stinks to get a weather cancellation 2 days before winter break.

  12. The headlines from the mainstream media outlets for this week are already out of control. Haven’t they learned?!

          1. Hey we all do it all the time. WE start typing and we don’t know someone else is in the process. 🙂

  15. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025021012&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025021012&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s that impact in the 4-7, 5-8am time range Thursday morning, at least according to the 12z GFS simulation. Would be poorly timed.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_012h-imp&rh=2025021012&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    as simulated, good front end thump.

  17. Thanks TK

    Good for CA, need the mountain snow to build up for the summer.

    Calm week up to Thursday. Tough call for schools Thursday. Our boys closed last week and I thought they could have gone but was ok with the cancellation.

  21. There are no flurries in TK’s forecast and the morning tv Mets never mentioned them either. I haven’t been actively looking out my window so I can’t say for certain they didn’t occur. When I do look outside, it’s just cloudy as it is now. It brightens at times then gets darker. I actually assumed today would be more sun than clouds.

  24. Yes the light snow showers today were a surprise. Enough wave active in the atmosphere to wring out what little moisture is there.

    Heading to visit Mom now – report later! 🙂

  25. Looking like Saturday is probably a rain event . I think the Wednesday night event is the one we need to watch

    1. Actually, Saturday will be mainly dry. The Saturday night / Sunday event is quite up in the air.

      Leaning toward at least 50/50 frozen/liquid, perhaps more toward the frozen.

      Forecasting this stuff is far more than just looking at a model run.

  26. Quite the pattern emerging on the 18z GFS around 2/20 thru the end of the month. Trough in the east and bowling ball effect with several waves rounding the base and coming up the coast. Multiple snow events. Euro has a similar look for a coastal around 2/20.

    Still 10 days away so we’ll see if it materializes. Until we get closer, not going to get my hopes up. Last week, the model ensemble means had two feet of snow for most SNE by this Sunday. I’m at 4.3″ after the first two storms and will probably be lucky to pull more than an inch or two from the next two before the changeovers. NNE, different story…

  28. 0z GFS looks warmer for Thursday. Snow quickly to mix then rain.

    Colder for the weekend in a long duration two part system with snow to mix to rain in part 1 and rain to snow in part 2.

    And it’s all in for 2/20 with a major coastal storm. Some support amongst the models for something bigger around that time period.

    1. As previously mentioned, the operational runs will show you varieties of simulations, generally riddled with errors.

  29. TK – How was your mom doing yesterday? I hope she’s comfortable and improving. 🙂

    What are your thoughts about the term “messy mix”? I don’t recall that being used until this winter. Maybe it was used last winter but we didn’t have as many opportunities.

    I’m not certain it helps the average viewer all that much. When I hear about a “messy mix” I don’t know if it’s a serious icing situation or just a mere slush (more wet than frozen).

    And then there’s: “wintry mix”, “icy mix”. The terms are getting confusing to me now.

    1. She’s doing well. Potential release today!

      Messy mix, wintry mix, etc. … interchangeable phrases, used by many in varying forms over the years.

      The phrase is ok as an overview, but if it’s used for something imminent, more detail is needed in terms of expected precipitation types / locations / times.

      My advice is don’t read into them too much when you hear the phrases used. If watching TV, look for more detailed maps / explanations, but be careful if they are “just showing a model”.

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