Saturday February 15 2025 Forecast (8:08AM)

274 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

A winter storm will impact the region for the vast majority of this 3-day weekend in a variety of ways. There are a lot of parts and interactions here so I’ll break this down the best way I can for you to understand my expectations. First, we have high pressure across a good portion of central and eastern Canada, with an extension down across New England to start today. The main center of this high will remain in central Canada, with a weaker extension to the east. This limits the influence it can have on our upcoming system, but it will be strong enough to hold cold air in at the surface, away from the immediate coast, which will be a significant player. The weaker southward extension of the high allowed it to get quite cold overnight (generally 10s to lower 20s for low temps), and this high also allows us to start the day with filtered sunshine. But as low pressure makes a trek out of the Ohio Valley / eastern Midwest toward the interior Northeast, and a warm front extends ahead of it, to our south, we’ll have an increasing and thickening of the overcast as the day goes on. From the end of the afternoon through early evening, a snow shield will spread from west to east across the region. It will at first bit a little patchy, having to overcome dry air, but this process will actually chill the atmosphere a bit more, assuring several hours of accumulating snow across the region before the next phase of the storm begins. That phase will be a mid level jet stream bringing in warmer air aloft, where the precipitation develops. As this takes place, a change over from snow to sleet / freezing rain / rain will occur from south to north, starting at the South Coast in the overnight hours, and progressing northward. The atmospheric temperature profile determines sleet vs. freezing rain vs. liquid rain, and the overall outlook of how this goes hasn’t really changed from yesterday’s outlook. I do think we’ll see a ribbon of sleet for most areas initially, but this will likely be for a limited time as the warming aloft is substantial enough to erode the cold air low enough to prevent full freezing of rain drops after a short period of time. The key then becomes the surface temperature as the rain area expands. Across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and up along the coast of the MA South Shore, I expect the surface temperature to rise above freezing to prevent a freezing rain situation. This should also happen up the coast from Boston to the MA North Shore, but may be delayed for a while, so that a period of freezing rain can occur here. As soon as you go inland, and especially progress further inland, the freezing rain will be more prevalent, and may continue for most of the event. There are areas that may never get above freezing – these favoring the elevated valleys of northern Worcester County, maybe western and northern Middlesex County of MA, and interior southern NH. The warm front associated with the primary surface low, which by the early hours of Sunday will be entering NY State, will be the focus for a secondary low pressure area, developing in the vicinity of the South Coast of New England. As this takes place, the only place that likely gets into the warm sector of the system will be Cape Cod and the Islands. The colder air will never have been eroded efficiently enough elsewhere to allow that boundary to progress to the north, and once the secondary low forms, and moves east northeast, it will drag that boundary back to the southeast anyway. The structure of the storm associated with the primary low will remain fairly intact, however, even as the low itself decays. This may send a dry slot into southeastern MA and RI, limiting some precipitation during the plain rain portion of the storm. But one last burst of moderate to heavy rain will cross the region later Sunday as the occluded / cold front passes. This burst should be in liquid form for the majority of the region, but in those valley areas to the northwest there is still the potential for this to be in the form of freezing rain, which would add enough ice accretion for tree damage, if it should occur this way. Will watch for that. A little wrap-around moisture can send some sleet and snow showers back across the region as the cold air returns quickly behind the departing storm, as the new low takes over in the Gulf of Maine and starts to intensify rapidly. I don’t think much in the way of sleet/snow accumulation will occur with this parting shot, but a quick coating can occur in some areas. And no, I did not forget to talk about the pre-change-over snow accumulation forecast. That remains basically unchanged from my previous discussion. The expectation is 1 to 3 inches across the South Coast, least on Nantucket / Outer Cape Cod – with much of this melting away on Sunday as this is the area most likely to enter the warm sector briefly. Elsewhere, expect a general 3 to 6 inch snowfall from the MA South Shore to interior RI and northward from there, with much of this becoming compacted by rain and temps in the 30s to lower 40s, or further inland compacted and acquiring a coating of ice where freezing rain occurs. Exception remains some 6 to 8 inch snowfall potential across interior southern NH and north central MA, particularly the higher elevations, where the snow will be less wet and last longest before any change-over, but sleet and freezing rain compaction will occur in these areas as well. Post-storm, we have a wind event to deal with on Monday. The low pressure area will become a powerhouse as it moves from the Gulf of Maine into Atlantic Canada, and its circulation, in contrast with central Canadian high pressure extending into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, will create strong northwesterly winds here, with gusts above 45 MPH likely in much of the region, including the potential for wind damage and scattered power outages. Areas with ice on the trees will be particularly vulnerable. This will come along with the return of a pretty cold air mass too. While the wind eases slightly Tuesday, it will continue to be quite gusty, making the already below normal temperatures feel even colder, though the weather will be dry. Wednesday will also be a cold, but more tranquil day, as high pressure dominates.

TODAY: Filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds thicken up in the morning. Lowering overcast afternoon – late day snow likely, especially west of I-95. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow evening into overnight with accumulation of 1 to 3 inches South Coast and 3 to 6 inches elsewhere except 6 to 8 inches in some locations of southern NH and north central MA. Snow to sleet to freezing rain / rain transition begins south to north late evening / overnight with icing conditions first away from the immediate South Coast up to the I-90 belt with higher probability to sleet to the north. Temperature rising slightly to 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH evening, staying that way over interior valleys and shifting to E 5-15 MPH elsewhere, especially coastal areas, overnight.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Precipitation continues – transition from freezing rain to non-freezing rain works from South Coast into the I-90 belt but takes longest in valleys, sleet to freezing rain in areas to the north with a lower chance of getting to non-freezing rain, resulting in additional sleet accumulation and ice accretion. Rain may taper to just drizzle / few showers southeastern MA and RI for a time during the afternoon hours. Highs 30-37 southern NH & interior MA, 38-45 eastern coastal MA & RI, 45-52 Cape Cod / Martha’s Vineyard / Nantucket. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH coastal areas, variable under 10 MPH inland areas, briefly becoming S 10-20 MPH Cape Cod region and variable 5-15 MPH elsewhere before shifting to W from west to east end of the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with one more burst of widespread rain showers except potential icing interior elevated valley locations early evening and potential sleet/snow showers late evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Watching a snowstorm potential in the February 20-21 time frame – leaning toward an offshore evolution and more of a side-swipe than a bigger hit, but the latter cannot be discounted as a potential. Fair weather returns after. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching the February 26-28 period for a potential winter storm impact. Temperatures below normal.

274 thoughts on “Saturday February 15 2025 Forecast (8:08AM)”

  4. From Bernie Rayno with the storm potential next week

    The time frame is Wed-Thu. Remember, model flip-flopping may continue this weekend into early next week. Remain calm and focus on the trough.
    While I can easily see out to sea, I think it is more likely to be guided up the coast.

    1. “Remain calm”. It’s sad that now some forecasters have to actually tell their viewers / readers to “remain calm”. haha

      Love Bernie though. He’s a favorite of mine.

  5. I’m wondering if NWS snow totals are a bit too high. Would love to see it happen but imo it’s not going to be snowing long enough.

    Boston at 6”??

    3-4” seems much more reasonable imo.

    2. My forecast is a little lower than theirs in the northern half of eastern MA, but we’re only talking a couple inches and very little overall impact difference.

  7. Wow – thanks a lot TK for that detailed write-up of a very complex system. I especially appreciate that you never ignore us pioneers outside of 495! 🙂

    1. Yes, never forget.
      I definitely forecast for more than a few driveways south of the Mass Pike. 😉

  10. Thanks, TK, for your detailed forecast. Great explanations, as always.

    I apologize for not being a regular on the blog anymore as I’m swamped with too many things going on. But I invariably enjoy reading the forecasts and the comments.

    For those interested, you can find my latest Forbes articles here (from MAHA to weight loss drugs to other things healthcare-related): https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    Also, I write for an MIT publication called Undark (how long I can continue remains uncertain, as budget cuts are likely; for now, I’m still able to write for them). Here’s a sample article: https://undark.org/2025/02/05/fda-biased-pulse-oximeters/

    1. No apology needed. Nobody is required to participate. 🙂

      Thanks for the links! I always check those out. 🙂

  11. 12z NAM depicts that quasi-dry slot that I referred to in my discussion, timed just for when the rain would be at maximum from part 1 to the south. Will be interesting to watch the trend on that. The snowfall trend on the guidance is similar or up VERY slightly over the last 2 runs for the majority of the region, but not enough that I would call it “different”.

  12. Good mornong and thank uou TK
    Excellent discussion!

    check out the 12z Hrrr
    It has ticked up the SNOW.

  13. Not sure I buy it, but most interesting just the same.

    Still concerned warmer air comes in aloft sooner than modeled. Don’t want to get sucked in as I am tempted to do after viewing the HRRR and teading the discussion. 🙂

    1. I basically said that. The warm nose aloft comes in, the surface is colder. I don’t think the uptick in the snow means much on the short range. Same reason I didn’t really change my amounts at all, except to bring my 3-6 line slightly further south than yesterday’s update.

  14. Does 2 inches of rain seem likely across eastern mass? Assume bulk of icing occurs west/north of 495. Thanks.

    1. I’ve been hearing 1-1.5” rain for eastern MA so I guess not quite 2”.

      I’ve also heard flooding possible as well with some snowmelt.

  15. Are the precip amounts 2” total or are we getting 1.5-2” of rain on top of snow? I’m getting concerned I’m going to have basement issues.

    2. Melted precip totals probably in the 1.50 to 2.50 range, but the first 0.50 to 0.75 inch is snow, then we have the mix. And even when the rain comes, where it isn’t freezing, the majority of the liquid rain area will be cold enough that the snow only compacts, but doesn’t really melt. In the portion of far southeastern New England that is warmest, they have the best shot at a dry slot. So all those factors should limit any flooding from what it could be.

      1. Had to leave my car outdoors at Logan Express Framingham….will I just be able to back out on Wednesday midday or will some digging/shoveling be necessary?

      2. The tv mets are starting to use the term “washed away” especially for SE sections. Is that accurate? Last night Eric insisted that any snow would NOT be washed away.

    1. I wouldn’t read too much into those 1 inch differences at this point. It’s just an accumulation forecast, there are going to be variations.

  21. Arod, it was great to see you posting at the end of yesterday’s blog. And pizzaDOH ….it has been a while. Really nice to see your name pop up there too.

        1. Just an observation, Philip!!!
          I read every day. It’s easy to pick out what’s what. But I’m onto the weather again!!!

      2. Awesome. And loving the abbreviated V. I hope you find time to post more often but sure understand just reading

  22. TK, thanks for the write-up. You covered a lot of territory which makes the whole event interesting! Read it twice.

    1. I just read a second time too. May go for three once I get my tea !

      I’m not a fan of ice but this event seems interesting to track

  23. My over / under has been / is 4.0.” I think the persistence of cold air for longer than expected could materialize to the point where I should be 5.0.” Air … cold or hot … can be stubborn.

    FanDuel tells me the over bettors are jumping all over my 4.0″ line. 🙂 🙂

  24. I am hoping the 12z Nam’s and HRRR are overdone with the ice potential for my area. Close to if not over half ice accretion for my area.

    1. JP, just looking at the 12z GFS it looks from this novice that the low moved further east more over Berkshire. Where it was over the NY/Canada border on 06z and 00z runs. I don’t know if that has a big effect at all?

      1. The higher resolution short range guidance is better to track that kind of stuff from here on, but a slightly further south track would not be a surprise because initially the guidance tends to overdo the surface warming. If the new low is intent on being on that boundary, it’s going to be pretty far south. Meanwhile the primary dies to the northwest. The global guidance struggles with this in the short term. You can see it on the Canadian model today, where it just really focuses on one low.

  26. Thanks TK! What a great forecast Discussion, I always learn some things reading these. I would like the dry slot to get into the South Coast to avoid some flooding and a real mess. Plus want to clear out any icy slushy remains for the storm on Weds night Thursday here along the coast. That seems to be the greatest chance we have had for a big snow storm here in a while. We will see how the atmosphere sets up the next few days whether it’s for real or not. I am concerned the storm bombing out in Atlantic Canada may play a role in suppressing next system south?

    1. That is my primary reason for favoring a side-swipe over a direct hit. But sometimes those storms get out of the way “in time”. Remains to be seen until we can look at more pieces to the puzzle with more clarity.

      In the mean time, other being quite sick today, my focus is on the imminent event. I don’t know if I’m battling an intestinal virus, or a over-did sodium and under-did hydration yesterday, but this is pretty brutal at the moment. Working on it now with a combo of liquid consumption and rest.

  27. Celebrating my wife’s birthday with dinner out tomorrow at 630 in metro west. How will conditions be for family to be on road? I asked a few days ago but didn’t know if there had been changes. Thanks.

    1. Well, I am less concerned about backside snow accumulation, and even if they head on to icing longer during the day, the roads should be fairly well treated. Not so sure how side roads and walks will turn out.

      Later in the evening, though, the temperature crashes. So if you are doing something earlier is better.

      1. From what I can tell from those futurecast maps, there’s not going to be any real meaningful precipitation left once the cold air arrives. Just as well.

  28. Looks like the 12Z GFS has ticked North from the 6Z run. Another few frames and we’ll know for sure.

          1. Not to mention that the 12Z depiction has a much stronger system.

            This is certainly getting interesting and Thursday cannot be written off just yet.

            Waiting on Euro. Will look at Canadian, but we know about that one. 🙂

  31. Correction on my post last night upper 50’s typo should have been mid 40’s for a time in my area Sunday afternoon.

  34. Thanks TK !

    I went through a 10 mile stretch southeast of Baltimore, MD of snow. Quiet here in Lorton, VA. Car train gets me to Orlando overnight.

    2. We’ll see all kinds of solutions for a couple more days, given how many systems and energy packets are involved, some of them very far away.

  38. Now, onto the Euro. Oh what will it have to say.

    AS of this moment, looking more and more like a hit on Thursday and it could be a substantial hit at that.

    We shall see.

    C’mon Euro!!!

  40. Thanks, TK. Hope you feel better soon.

    Went through all the comments kind of fast so might have missed something. Just hope for not too much ice – better to have snow. Preferably the fluffy type. But I don’t see that happening w/what I have been reading and hearing.

  42. X will be very quiet after the 12z EURO run
    Windshield wiper effect as Bernie Rayno talks about with the forecast guidance.

    1. It “may” actually be more that that. It may actually be the most realistic solution yet. Well, that’s my fear anyway. Not giving up just yet.

      Euro: Miss
      GFS: Graze
      CMS: Hit
      ICON: Hit
      UKMET: Hit

      of those 5 which one do you trust the most?

  43. Thanks Sue and Vicki! Like pizzaDOH. I, too, am an astute reader. I haven’t missed a day since the WBZ days. It’s been fun watching the evolution of this amazing weather community run by the great TK. I’ve always enjoyed his insights along with the likes of SAK, JMA, Tom, JPdave, Mark and many others! I’ve learned a lot from each and every one of them. As a healthcare professional, I’ve always appreciated the “why” as it relates to particular outcomes. That’s probably the scientist in me. After all, my nickname in college was the inquisitor. It allows me to understand things better and to explain things to my patients in a language they can understand. It’s important to me that I support statements that are evidence based. So it saddens me sometimes to see some folks make statements willy-nilly over and over again without being able to support those statements with the “why.” It dilutes the overall experience of this blog which is why I don’t readily participate. You can be sure, however, that I am always reading, and I’m hoping to hear JPDave chant “holy crap Batman!!!” and not “@&$&&@$!!!!#%%?!” as Thursday approaches. LOL. Anyhow…Be safe everyone! No doubt it’s going to be a messy storm with most of it being in the frozen variety away from the south shore, coastline, cc and the islands.

    1. Hey Arod, nice to see you here.
      Sorry, no Holy Crap Batman and as of yet, no ()@#*(*!@#&*(!@&#
      Still watching. Still have 5+ days to go and anything can happen.

      But in all honesty, I am now in Camp TK and leaning towards a graze OR OTS solution. Not cast in stone just yet, so we can’t let our guard down.

      Now to get through the mess of tonight and tomorrow. 🙂

      1. I agree JPDave. I always trust the TK model above all yes. I don’t particularly put a lot of emphasis on the Canadian or CMS models but as they always say, “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings!” I do feel a bit better about this coming a bit further north than our most recent graze.

    2. Arod I thought you were not going to post here any longer , I see you called me a troll again last night because of the projected Sunday temps I posted for my area only !! I had said the mid 50’s by typo error & corrected that this morning to lower to mid 40’s ( again my area ) to insult folks on this blog , I was assuming is frowned on . What I said last night regarding the projected temperature for Sunday afternoon did not warrant being insulted , google yourself & see what it says . If you are going to post here please respect my posts .

  44. Feel better TK! There is quite the quademic happening – Covid, FLU, RSV, Norovirus – I am washing my hands constantly – we need a few days in mid 50s to open all windows

    2. Thankfully this seems to be one of the above other than a possible variation of Noro (if it’s a virus). I still feel like I’ve been hit by truck, I can’t get warm, I didn’t sleep for long so my energy level is down anyway, but slowly but surely the intestinal symptoms are easing and my appetite is creeping back up.

      Really just focusing on resting, staying warm, and hydrating.

      This is the worst I have felt, in the moment, in about 24 years.

  45. The 17z HRRR is about 1 hour slower with the changeover than the 12z HRRR was.

    That would be the model seeing the surface cold and the boundary a tiny bit further south, therefore the new secondary low a little further south when it initiates.

    We’ll see if that trend continues, but I really think we’re almost “there” for a short range solution.

  46. Here’s the 1:17 p.m. snowfall map update from NWS. Basically identical the last 12 hours. I put it in “point forecast” mode so you can see the to-the-inch forecast for selected locations. I still use ranges for the actual forecast, and so do they, but these are the precise #’s they would use as a one-number amount.

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=expected&2025021518

    As for agreement with it: Generally yes. I’d chop an inch or 2 off Boston, but that’s a wildcard really. When do they go to sleet and how long do they sleet before going to rain.

    I HAVE TO NOTE THIS BECAUSE IT’S IMPORTANT! If Boston’s forecast on that map was correct, they may only have 6 inches of new snow on the ground briefly, and I mean briefly, because as soon as we see a flip, compaction / absorption begins.

    This is one of those instances, where a straight snowstorm would be better, because there will still be a couple to a few inches of new snow, water-logged, on the ground in that area at the storm’s conclusion, ready to freeze solid by Monday morning. Makes the removal work that much harder and more urgent to get done right away, and ice treatment on the roads etc. even if there was not a drop of freezing rain.

    Winter weather is FAR MORE than snow accumulation. There are many condition, before, during, and after each storm to take into account.

    When SAK and I worked for the private company we both broke into the business with, the operational forecasting team there would be sending out snow and ice (aka winter weather) forecasts to clients that were basically forms to fill out that included pretty detailed forecast information, hour by hour, for the duration of the event.

    Start time, end time, intensity, p-type and time of each of those, road conditions or whatever else was applicable (varied client to client). As SAK has stated many times and I reiterate here, the total snowfall accumulation was one of the last things asked for.

    So when I say an event is “significant”, I’m not always talking about final snowfall, and if I am I’m talking about other aspects of the event with it.

    1. Whether its 4″ or 20″ of snow, you do the same thing: push it off the road. Its knowing when the snow starts, when it is expected to start actually sticking to the road, when will it stop, what the temperatures are expected to be during the storm, what the temps will be after, and what will be the post storm conditions in the following 6, 12, 24 and 36 hours, etc.

      Only after the storm does the amount that fell really matter, because you have to decide if you have to go back and push back snow banks to allow for the next storm, or can you plan on melting.

  48. Thanks TK and hope you feel better.

    Nice day up here at Sunday River. Sunny morning and now the high clouds are streaming in. No wind and nice snow conditions!

    12z EPS ensemble mean came further south for Thursday along with the op run. Hopefully just windshield wiper effect…

  49. Snow is falling in eastern NY (Scarsdale) about 2 hours earlier than I thought it would be. We’ll see if this “earlier than forecast” trend continues.

  50. Hope you are feeling better. I appreciate your effort to create such a detailed outlook under the circumstances as well as putting out forecasts and answering questions every day. Quick question: how will wind on Monday compare to last Friday? Thanks

  52. Hope you feel better soon TK! Hearing of lots of people with stomach bugs right now so it is certainly running rampant. Keep up with your fluids and get some rest!

  53. The forecast here in CT was between 2pm-4pm. The 17z HRRR run had the snow in here at 3pm. It started at 2:45pm. Good job by that forecast guidance.

  54. Parts of inland SNE upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning

    Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
    Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western
    Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern
    Middlesex MA-
    Including the cities of Barre, Gloucester, Greenfield, Orange,
    Ayer, Chesterfield, Lawrence, Framingham, Fitchburg, Blandford,
    Milford, Charlemont, Lowell, and Worcester
    301 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
    accumulations between 4 and 8 inches and ice accumulations between
    0.15 to 0.35 inches

    * WHERE…Portions of central, eastern, northeastern, and western
    Massachusetts.

    * WHEN…Until 7 PM EST Sunday.

  55. Thanks, TK!

    These untrained eyes were just looking at the wind gusts on the 18z HRRR. To me, there seems to be prolonged 60+ knot winds in southern Vermont Monday morning. I also think I saw a 75-knot gust in that area, too!

  61. From Bernie Rayno for next week storm potential

    As I said earlier there is going to be lots of flipping and flopping with guidance as the 12z runs illustrate. The end game is far away.

  62. Winter Storm Watch upgraded to warning in the areas that have the potential to hit 6 inches. See map. I’m too worn out to describe it haha.

  63. TK – feel better. Influenza, COVID-19, and especially norovirus all come with GI manifestations, yet the treatment is similar for all. Start with clear liquids, particularly pedialyte as it is the best oral rehydration solution on the market. Follow that with a BRAT diet (banana, rice, apple sauce, and toast). Start low and go slow. You’ll be back to normal in no time!

  65. John, since you so eloquently brought it up, you must be referring to my stent with opioid addiction back in 2018-2019. Yes, I am a recovering addict and have a substance use disorder. I’ve been clean for over 5 years. I worked my butt off to turn my life completely around. My behavior is all historical. I’m not proud of the man I was. But fortunately, I’ve been given a second chance and never lost my ability to practice what I love most – medicine. I’m blessed and very grateful for the chance to redeem myself. And to give back to our community for this amazing second opportunity, I frequently appear as guest speaker at various medical school, physician assistant and nurse practitioner programs to share my story of addiction with prospective healthcare professionals so that they do not repeat the mistakes I’ve made. In fact, I’ve had the pleasure of speaking at an urgent care convention last year at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas on behalf of the Urgent Care Association of America in front of 2000 people in the urgent care industry. Even better, I was invited back again to share my story of recovery at this year’s convention in Dallas. So yes, thank you for sharing something very personal to me with all of the members of this blog , not in MY terms but on YOURS. You should feel very good about yourself. I’m glad you reminded us all of a very real problem America has. We are still fighting against an ongoing crisis and doing everything we can to save lives. But rather than being part of the problem, I’ve been able to be part of the solution. One thing is for sure though. I’m a better person for it today and while I’ll always be an addict, your words today about my past proves one thing – that you will always be a troll. Thanks again John for sharing something so personal and dear to me with everyone on this blog. It’s important topic and I’m glad you brought it up!

    2. Say what ?? What are you talking about Arod . I know nothing about you or your past . What on earth are you saying .

      1. Oh really? Just what did you mean exactly when you said, “Google yourself & see what it says.” This I’ve got to hear. But honestly, thank you wholeheartedly. It’s an important topic though admittedly, this isn’t really the platform as this is TK’s show and my past is not really relevant to the spirit of this blog.

        1. Google yourself meant to google weather bug where I got the temperatures & sent to TK this morning telling him I replied to you calling me a troll again for the second time this winter , man i know nothing about you why would you accuse me of that !! I don’t make this stuff up & post here . I applaud you for your 5 years of recovery. But let me tell you right now you got me totally wrong Arod . And just so you know I would never , ever break a person’s sobriety ( if I knew ) it’s the # 1 rule in the fellowship & you should know that . For your information I am a recovering alcoholic & I am sober 30 years one day at a time . Again msn , how would I know that . Last I am saying on this matter

            1. You did misunderstand & you forced me to break my anonymity on a public blog ( well no one here knows my name except for a few ) I’ve busted my ass on my program since the age of 24 to present age of 53 . I’m moving past this but in the future if you or anyone else does not like something I post , just move past . Tk I apologize for going off topic .

              1. Not sure anyone forced anyone to do anything but first of all, a huge congratulations to both of you on your amazing accomplishments. You should both be very proud.

                Second, this is not Facebook and sometimes just “scrolling on by” isn’t always as easy as said. This is a blog for weather enthusiasts that is run by an extremely talented meteorologist. The hard work TK puts into his DETAILED forecasts is often challenged and frankly it becomes frustrating if the challenge comes with zero knowledge or supporting evidence. It is human nature to defend. Of course everyone is entitled to their own opinions but I view WHW as a place for people who love weather and can communicate as adults.

            2. Thank you, arod, for your courage and your commitment. While we are short on apologies here, yours is heartfelt and sincere.

    3. I absolutely echo JPDs comment. I had goosebumps as I read. You are an amazing man and I wish you continued success. And I thank you for the work you do to help others.

    4. Amazing Arod! So proud of the recovery you’ve made and what you are doing to give back.

      Always appreciate your posts and knowledge of the weather too.

      1. Thanks North! I really don’t have that much knowledge. Just a weather enthusiast but thanks!

  67. Snow coming in on the South Coast earlier than I expected and a less patchy radar – interesting development.

  70. First flakes here. Just about right on schedule as far as I am concerned. I expected between 5 and 6 and they commenced
    at 5:15 PM. 🙂

    2. I forget where you are. It Did that here for a bit. Now we have a light coating on non paved areas.

      1. I like weather bug a lot . If you go by that & it’s correct we don’t hit 32 until 7am , staying in the 20’s all night .

        1. I tried some weather apps. Bug was one of them. They were wrong as often as they were right. I like wooodshill weather first and several of our exceptional Mets.

  75. Ok that was difficult. I had to make a run to the store for something my mother needs before tomorrow (and for tomorrow). Normally I go shopping for her on Sunday a.m. but I’m not even attempting it, knowing there’s going to be quite a cleanup to be done before I go anywhere, and that it needs to be done during the rain portion before the freeze-up comes. So I took a short list for her and grabbed the essentials. Pulled it off. I’m exhausted – not sleepy – just tired. But now I can have a small dinner, a nice shower, and then watch that hockey game between the US & Canada. I’m not often home on a Saturday night, but am I ever glad to be home on this particular one. 🙂

    P.S. – snow started at 5:30 – tiny flakes, 0.3 so far. I don’t think these are going to be the bigger dendritic pile-up flakes, so despite more snow falling for a longer period of time per recent short range guidance, I’m just leaving my accumulation forecast alone for now, but I do think a lot of areas to the south of Boston (away from the South Coast), may crack 3″ and head toward 4″ or so.

      1. I am now. I really had to make that trip for mom. Nobody else here to do it. But it went ok and I made it. 🙂

        2. My apologies. I didn’t mean you should have rested. But hopefully you can rest now. My bad. My comment was not clear at all.

  76. Radar trends show a little lull coming north of I-90, while things may go more moderate to the south. This can potentially skew the amounts slightly, but it should not be a huge difference. Some of the short range guidance the last few runs show a band of slightly heavier snow from southern Worcester County to the MA South Shore. We’ll see if that’s what takes place here.

    And the surface warming is going to be S L O W … The upper air will be warming much more efficiently than the surface, hence the changover to come overnight / early morning.

    Basically, everything is on track… 🙂

  80. Thicker flakes happening in Padanaram Village here on South Coast – moderate snow. So a sign the warm air is coming in above us. Thermometer in my yard says 31 (.4 of a mile from Buzzards Bay) . The Storm app says 27 but I think that is measured further inland a few miles

  82. Snow is very fine here also. Sane as last storm no moisture. Roads are bad. We are a bit over an inch.

    1. Tk & I chatted earlier & he was leaning towards the higher end for here , it needs to pickup some I would think for that to happen . In all fairness it’s only just starting .

      2. I actually talked about a lull moving in early on for parts of the region. You’ll end up in the forecast range.

        1. There has been no lull Tk , it’s just not coming down hard , will the intensity pickup

  83. Toward the end of the lull – uptick ahead.

    The lull WAS talked about above, in case anybody missed it. The steadiest / heaviest snowfall from this system is a few hours away.

    Again, I don’t want anybody acting like I called for a foot of snow. Not going to allow misrepresentation of my statements at ALL.

    Hope that’s understood. 😉

    1. I must of missed it , I’ll probably be up till 11:30 I would like to see some good snow coming down before bed, thank you .

  84. About an inch here with 25 degrees. Settling in and enjoying the first couple of minutes of USA-Canada hockey. Very intense early on! Canada up, 1-0.

  85. Updated accumulation forecast…

    NO change. 1-3 South Coast, 3-6 elsewhere, pockets 6-8 northern MA / southern NH.

    High res short range guidance also still shows some distinctive precipitation lulls during the RAIN portion of the event, so this could potentially limit the amount of problematic icing if it occurs in those areas. Let’s hope that’s how it goes.

  86. alisonarod I am so happy for you, opioid addiction is awful, and people don’t understand how common it is in the medical field itself and is a very easy drug to get a hold of. Drs are still so easily willing to give it to patients. I even was offered an opioid based drug for pain after a surgery I had. I stopped using it the second day and suffered with the pain because I know how easy it is get to addicted to this stuff. People that would not be addicts get a hold of it by doctors and then get hooked. I actually was addicted to a pill ( it is legal but its certainly addictive) that helped me sleep when I was a kid and would get sick if I didn’t take it. Took 3 years for me to get off of it and I got sick quit often and I can only imagine how it was for you to get off the opioids.

    1. Yours is a very special comment, Matt. It takes a tremendous amount of courage to break any addiction ..no matter what it is.

    2. Thank you for the kind words, Matt. Unfortunately, healthcare professionals have too much access to opioids. I regret ever getting mixed up with them. It goes to show it does not discriminate which is a message I impart to all present and future providers.

  90. 28 at Nantucket last hour. Fluff snow. That’s a signal of pretty significant cold air damming.

  92. Is it surprising that in Amesbury, at 10 pm, we don’t even have a coating of snow? It’s still basically doing nothing.

  96. Just starting snowing up here in Rumford ME and 18F.

    My mother is back at the house on Coventry CT watching the dog and said it appears it has now changed over to sleet there. 24F. She measured 2.5” snow, said it made have been closer to 3” but is now getting compacted by sleet.

  97. I think we will all fit squarely into TK’s ranges. 4-6 still not out if the question in most areas including the south shore based on radar trends. Snow mix line still in far southwestern New England. It’ll lift northeastward and take most if not the entire overnight before it takes over I-90 into Boston.

  102. Just read some of the back chatter, arod and ssk – I know those struggles. But it’s also great to live in the triumphs. I’m always happy to see both of you posting here.

    On to weather: we’ve got a little over an inch here. I’ll probably take another measurement at midnight. Then get up at six or seven am and do some snow shoveling much to my chagrin. Been sick for a week and a couple days. Apparently bronchitis. Been getting a little better but not happy about testing the lungs with my first workout in a week and a half but it’ll have to be done so sheets of ice don’t rule the day.

      1. Got the start of it about a week ago thursday. Feel better enough that I’m hoping I’m back to running 5k’s by wednesday.

  103. 0z CMC follows the trend and is a whiff for Thursday.

    Still time for this come back but as of now at four days out …not looking good.

    1. People putting all their (expensive) eggs in one basket before this storm even made its way through was always going to be folly. Wait for one to go before you hype up the next. That said, still fun to track it wherever it goes.

      1. Not hyping anything but the threat of a major nor’easter in less than 5 days is always going to get my attention. I agree we need to let this one pass and let the pieces of energy responsible for the next storm come on shore before we pass judgement. But a definite disappointment in model trends this afternoon/night for the next system.

  105. Nuking snow up here in Rumford ME right now and estimating about an inch has fallen so far. Radar looks pretty paltry off to the west and south though so likely to diminish in intensity soon.

  106. I just measured… 2” on the dot SE Sutton. Snow but a very small bit of frozen precipitation mix. We had a bit of a hole …again

    Sleep well everyone and please feel better TK, Dr S and all who caught one of the many illnesses going around

  107. Huge flakes and much heavier precip now. We will reach at least the minimum but by the time I’m up it may be washed away in part

  111. Had the thrill of re-living my teen years by doing donuts in the empty commuter rail parking lot with my oldest son’s friend. Very skillful driver and brought back a lot of memories!

  116. Got up to plow before freezing rain makes plowing more miserable. 4″ on the dot. Full mix flip happened at 3am here.

  119. I think Logan came in at 2.7.” Meanwhile here in Swampscott, I am probably at 3.5-4.0.”

    I am seeing freezing rain I believe.

  121. perfectly fine with me about thursdays storm … a family of a fireman , my wife who works in a hospital and i who has to deliver mail and all those who have to fight the elements every day i just hope it is calm and peaceful …. amen Today it is not and i have to deliver packages . I do love snow but keeping my loved ones and all safe is more important

  123. at 7:30 measured 4 5 here, but there was a layer of frozen stuff on top and who knows how much compaction/settling took place. so our total here could have bern 5 or5.5 or so Seems to fit. temp atc730 was 33.

        1. Yes, Logan reported 5.4. Revese #’s of my guess of 4.5. 😉 Still in the 3-6 range predicted for them. I’ll take it!

  124. Current temps across the WHW forecast area range from a low of 24 at Fitchburg to a high of 38 at Nantucket. This, ladies and gentlemen, is cold air damming and was described as the reason we’d see the event we’re seeing.

    On the up-front snow amounts…
    Prediction was 1-3 South Coast, 3-6 elsewhere with pockets of 6-8 north central MA and southern NH.
    What occurred was 1-3 South Coast, 3-6 elsewhere with pockets of 6+ northern Worcester County, eastern Middlesex County, and Essex County. The “jackpot” pockets were a little further southeast than expected, with the expected jackpot zones just falling in the 3-6 range. If you followed the radar pattern last night, you could see how that unfolded.

    I’m still really sick so I’m writing a new update but it might take me a few…

  125. So here at 8:00 a.m., it has turned back to snow here in Woburn and the wind is out of the north. Not what I was expecting. 🙂

    1. Why don’t you skip the update? Or give it 5 sentences and be done with it. Health comes first.

      2. The good news is there is virtually no change to my forecast, so there will be some carrying forward of yesterday’s and just tweaking it.

  129. That was really funny. We have light freezing rain again, after a brief interlude of snow. During the snow, we had a N wind, during the freezing rain, it’s dead calm.

  130. 6 inches of snow in North Reading….probably a tad more accounting for the sleet and compression…mostly sleet here with some flakes mixed in

  133. At 7:30 I measured 5″ here in Lunenburg. The current temp is 23.

    I think that in a little while I’ll go clear at part of the driveway so that it’ll become a good skating rink. 🙂

  134. Ice accretion on the trees where I am.
    Just got through moving the glacier. Take it easy for anyone who has to shovel.
    NY 0.5 inches and are up to 12.5 inches of snow for the season
    What is BOS up to for the season?

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