Monday February 17 2025 Forecast (6:39AM)

139 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

The storm system that brought the variety of precipitation over the weekend is still having an impact today in the form of icy ground and powerful winds. A high wind warning is up for much of the region, with a wind advisory for southeastern MA and RI / eastern CT. Gusts of 45-55 MPH can occur in the advisory area, 55-65 MPH in the warning area. These winds can cause tree damage and resultant power outages, as well as flying ice – crusts of ice that formed atop the snow cover that can lifted by the wind and flung through the air. Additionally, it’ll be wicked cold – with high temps in the 20s and the wind making it feel like the single digits and teens today. While the day is mostly dry, a few light snow showers will likely occur too, but these should be minor with no additional impact to travel. The windy and cold weather will continue through Tuesday too, but the wind will ease up in comparison to Monday – still though, a harsh winter day. The only difference at this point in the winter is the sun angle is noticeably higher and this can help take the sting out of the cold if you’re able to be in the sun. Wednesday’s weather continues cold and dry, with even less wind as the big storm that caused the wind loses its grip on us. However, this large circulation will have some impact on our next storm threat – the already much talked about Thursday storm threat. Low pressure develops down the coast and moves offshore. We’ll be watching the track of the storm to see if it comes close enough for a widespread significant snow event, or is far enough offshore for just a side-swipe. I’m continuing to lean toward the latter, with the low driven more east northeast out to sea rather than up the coastline. This means the greatest threat for accumulating snow will most likely be in southeastern MA – favoring Cape Cod. But there are still a few days to fine tune this forecast. Friday, expect fair and cold weather as high pressure builds in.

TODAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 20-30 MPH, gusts 45-65 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow possible, favoring eastern and southern areas. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow mainly southeastern MA early, then clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Below normal temperatures prevail with a potential minor to moderate winter weather event mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

February 27 and March 1-2 are watch periods for potential winter storm impacts. Temperatures below normal.

139 thoughts on “Monday February 17 2025 Forecast (6:39AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Winter is running on fumes snow wise. It’s appears that after the first 10 days in March things flip to a weaker pattern? We shall see!

      1. So still hope to hit those above average numbers. Just looking at long range euro etc.. didn’t see many opportunities for anything significant. Much easier to see the cold/warmer vs precip chances that far out

        1. Well, forecast for Boston, 40-50″. Average is 49″. So near normal is the expectation overall.

    3. Also, “running on fumes” is not a phase I’d use for snow. It’s February 17. I see 4 opportunities for it in the next 15 days. There are also “the models” that don’t see everything perfectly in the medium range. We’ve had major snow events here in April. We have so many weeks left to add to that total.

      Also a reminder: Even a “milder” pattern doesn’t mean no snow. Many of our snowiest stretches have come with near to above normal temperatures. Our coldest stretches are sometimes our driest. Already happened this January.

    4. I 100% agree with you on this one Hadi. February is absolutely cruising & March will be here very , very soon .

  3. Good morning and thank you, TK. I hope you’re feeling much better.

    We have a very light snow flurry here.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK .

    Well, for the Boston area, we just got another dinky dunker type snow event. qpf wise with all the rain, it was significant and quite a mess.

    Never got all that cold here overnight as it only made 26.

    Not very hopeful about Thursday. What once looked like a sure thing is looking more and more like a Fish Storm. Could things change? Sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Even the Nam likes the fish.

    I remember a storm years ago on a Saturday. I think Retrac and I were the only ones on the blog. After the morning runs, all models had the storm as a graze or a miss, then the 18z runs came out and showed a fullfledged major snow storm which did come btw. it may have been a miss till the 12z runs? one or the other. so here’s hoping.

  6. I just heard that Mass General Brigham’s is laying off alot of research staff and non-patient personal to try and cut into their major deficit. I want to know where all the money is going. MGH didn’t have this issue before the merger. No one at MGH really wanted them to merge 😉

  7. Thank you TK. Glad to hear you are improving!

    Weather-wise I looked for something that I thought we might see today … the marine forecast calls for Freezing Spray starting tonight.

    Very windy and cold. Walking the shore was tough.

  10. Looking out my window, I see a lot of “mashed potato” snow. Not really my favorite type but certainly better than nothing.

    Fluffy is my favorite! ❄️

  11. Boston has 21.1” to go to get to normal (49.2”).

    If we keep getting these “messy mixes” and sideswipes it’s going to be a struggle. We’re going to need all the opportunities we can get.

    If nothing else though, it’s way better than the last two years combined.

  13. Flying ice, yikes!
    Just when I thought that I had seen everything, I learn that ice can fly!
    Thank you for your forecasts, I check them everyday!

    1. That was quite an event! I was a freshman at Bryant and I remember my dorm window on the bottom floor was totally covered in snow. We dug a tunnel out to the surface and then broke down the box of a 30 rack of bud light and used it as a sled to slide into the tunnel and into the room.

  15. So what is causing this NW extension of the SNOW on the 12Z NAM for Thursday?

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025021712&fh=81&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025021712&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Doesn’t exactly look like a Norlun, although perhaps a hint of one?

    Anyone?

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021712&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. The gusts are quite rattly! I feel bad for those who had ice accretion on wires further inland.

      1. With the wind last night this OLD house of ours was making noises we’ve NEVER heard before in the 38 years we have lived here ! 🙂

      2. Our house being new and being 6×4 construction (I think that is the correct term) doesn’t typically creek. It is today

  18. Vicki, just curious. Did you have freezing rain all day yesterday? I now see that Sutton is actually south of I-90.

    1. Yes. Sutton is close to the CT RI borders. We had about 4.5 inches of snow with a thick layer of ice about an inch down. We had more rain than sleet so no ice buildup on trees etc.

      BUT that is SE sutton. The center of town and west sutton often have colder air than we do

  19. Much of the 12Z guidance is in. Thursday still OTS, except
    the NAM shows somewhat of an inverted trough for a bit of snow.

    1. It’s still on the table, but it was still funny people were hyping it up before this past storm ever got close to passing through. I always thought it was best to deal with what was on your plate stormwise before talking about your next meal.

    1. With next week having a strong potential to be much warmer and enjoyable for those of us that hate these 20 degree temp days. Here’s hoping.

      2. This is where TK says there won’t be a warm up. Even a sunny day with no wind would be nice. It’s been a windy winter.

      2. Might be a chance around 7-8 days from now…models are showing a coastal/off shore storm developing around 2/25.

  22. Thanks TK.

    Took us almost 7 hours to get back from Sunday River last night (includes a 90 min stop for dinner and a stop for gas). 10″ of snow fell while we were up there which was awesome however it changed to some sleet in the afternoon. Drive to Portland was sleet the whole way and roads were mostly snow packed but plowed and treated. Not terrible. Maine Turnpike was messy but got much better after we got south of Portland. Then we crossed into NH and it got interesting…four different spin outs in about 2 miles near Hampton. The left lanes were icy and untreated in both directions.

    Stopped for dinner in Salisbury. Parking lot was a sheet of black ice and almost fell getting out of the car. While we were there the last batch of precip came through and fell as sleet before changing to snow. It actually made the parking lot easier to walk on as we were leaving dinner. However it messed up I-495 royally and we saw three more accidents between Lawrence and I-290, including a car smashed into a rock wall and a tractor trailer pile up with two other cars. There were no plows to be seen on 495 and to TK’s point last night, I think they may have been caught off guard by that last slug of precip.

    Got home and driveway was a slushy water logged mess. At midnight, my son and I were able to clear most of it right before it started to freeze. Despite the cold, sun is hitting the driveway today and managing to melt the black ice that formed where we shoveled. What a mess. Between the 2 days of skiing in powder and heavy shoveling, I am aching all over today.

      1. Yeah, was not the best time to be away from home and traveling for the weekend by any means. But the skiing was great. Bluebird day Saturday and powder day Sunday.

  23. Thanks, TK!

    Winds seem to be stronger now than they have been all day!

    William Byron wins his second Daytona 500 in a row!

  24. I’m pleased to see that the sun is melting the ice from the trees and wires. So far the wind is really not an issue. If it picks up later, most of the ice will be gone by then.

  25. Does anyone know of the validity of this tweet (i’ll link it but also post the contents so anyone without an x account can see it): https://x.com/ethanclarkwx/status/1891225635072188526?s=46&t=

    What the tweet says:
    Shared with my by an NWS Meteorologist:
    NWS is potentially in trouble. We are struggling to get our public safety exemption approved from higher ups in the government. Without the exemption, we could face steep cuts. For anyone who cares about NWS, I’d implore you to write to your congressman/congresswoman and tell them that we are public safety. Meteorologists at the US Forest Service have their exemption. But for now, NWS is not being seen as public safety by someone who is crucial in this.

    2. My wife and I were talking about this last night. What the hell do dump and elon tusk know about weather and the importance of nBOAA, NHc, And SSPC??????
      Spelling pursposeful.

      I am really worried that they may actually do away with all 3 agencies. Afterall it’s government waste!!!!

      This remibds me of a neighbors young son who saw a spider in a web across the cellar window. Solution?
      He threw a rock at it and got the soider, but broke the window in the process.

    1. Great video by Matt. Takeaways – cold and dry the next week, moderating and back to a more active pattern next week into early March. Given the somewhat milder temperatures, these storms could take on any precip type – snow, mix, rain or any combination thereof…

  27. Ch +0 is digusting.
    Just got about thec3rd text today hyping the potetial for a Big snow storm on Thursday!!@!
    Gimmie a break. Back off already you Turkeys!

      1. Pete’s nb10? I figured they had something to do with his post last week about Thursday. Although I know whdhs stance on getting word out first also. I believe they are all part of the game

  28. Thank you, SClarke, for posting about the possible cuts – I’d say VERY LIKELY – at NWS and NOAA.

    I’m trying to write a piece on this for Undark (MIT publication) about the Trump administration’s budget cuts that would impact NWS and NOAA. So far, they’ve prioritized other areas of interest. Maybe in March. Or perhaps never, as my job will soon be under threat from the … you guessed it … NIH grant cuts.

    By the way, the most popular phrase in the executive branch of the federal government today is “waste, fraud, and abuse.” This echoes among those who support our president and then say that drastic cuts are necessary across all federal government agencies. Some hear the words waste, fraud, and abuse and then bandy it about everywhere. It’s a little like all the talk about egg prices in the lead-up to the election. My brother, a hardcore Trumpist (just like his wife, my other brother and his wife), never stopped talking about egg prices until recently … mmm, I wonder why? … My son once said, “Dad, I don’t even think Eric or Roger like eggs.” He’s right. They hardly ever eat eggs.

    By the way, budget cuts are of course one thing we’re seeing. But the language police are also becoming quite heavy-handed. I am opposed to political correctness on the left and the right. I think it’s foolish. i also can’t stand identity politics on the left and the right. But now we’ve got outright bans of words and phrases within government: Gender, race, diversity, disparity, equity, women’s health, minority, sexuality, climate change, etc … I’ve counted at least 40 words and terms that are being banned from discussion within official government circles. Orwellian.

    2. Neil Jacobs is trumps appoint,ent for head of noaa. You probably remember him for his part in drawing a fake hurricane path with a sharpie.

      Reducing our weather services is past of project 2025….the one trump knew nothing about but has implemented over 50 percent of 2025.

    3. Joshua, scary times. I hope your job remains secure. My church is hosting a book club. We are reading how to stand up to a dictator by Maria Ressa. Ressa is a fascinating person in her own right. A lot so far (I’m only four chapters in) is about social media’s impact on the thinking of others. It reminds me a lot of our discussions here of SM and its impact on meteorologists

  31. 17″ storm total at Killington, 10″ from upslope last night. Up to 204″ on the season.

    Jay Peak reporting similar and now up to a staggering 331″ on the season. This is more snow than any other ski area in the Western US.

    Map of Northeast Season to date Snow Totals

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_02/snow_ytd_neng.png.bea8944e5f16380cca7cb8e319201381.png

    Clearly shows the haves and have nots. It has been a banner year for snow in mountains of VT and portions of the Whites as well as the lake effect favored areas in Upstate NY. Another paltry year thus far in CT, RI and SE MA. We have not been doing as well as areas north of the Pike.

  32. Impressive Lake Effect plume extending from Lake Ontario down the Mohawk Valley and right into the Berkshires.

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KENX_0.gif

    White out blizzard conditions and many accidents being reported along the NYS Thruway. My mother who was down for the weekend watching the dogs is delaying her trip back to Amsterdam at least another day. Lake Effect Snow warning is in effect for the entire Mohawk Valley thru Wed AM for 8-16″ and blizzard conditions (and she just got another 6″ from the weekend storm). Looking at the webcam which is right up the road from my mom’s house, it indeed looks like a complete whiteout…

    https://wnyt.com/cdphp-first-warning-cam-amsterdam/

  34. I just don’t get the media. An hour go, channel 10 released a news story talking about the potential for a big storm Thursday. What do they know that we don’t?

    1. My 1st guess is it was cooked up by people that did not involve the actual weather team, and it was prompted by social media posts from unqualified sources. If Petey B. sees that, he’ll be steamed, and rightfully so. This is what it’s come to in media.

      2. Surprisingly, the story is under the byline of Sydney Welch, a meteorologist. The headline is, “How much will it snow Thursday? Powerful winter storm’s track remains unclear.”

        1. Remember, corporate dictates content. But then your link doesn’t seem to say we will have a powerful storm.

          1. The problem is they keep pushing the storm, THEN once they have your attention, they mention the track possibilities. TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY IRRESPONSIBLE!!!! DISGRACEFUL!!!!

            Unfortunately,many unknowing persons will THINK that a BIG storm is coming when it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that
            it would be the case!

            1. True. It is the responsibility of the reader too. But interestingly the book I mentioned above digs into how we can be controlled by social media. I’m just getting into the book but your point is very valid.

              The average person looks at a weather forecast and has absolutely no clue of corporate manipulation. And tragically then blame falls on the Mets.

  35. Plane flipped over at Toronto airport … maybe after landing.

    It’s suggested that the winds flipped it. About 80 people on board. No injuries.

        1. So scary. We were on that same type of plane in November on Delta from LaGuardia to Toronto. Mitsubishi CRJ900. Very small inside width wise. They are lucky to have all made it out.

      1. What the NAM is seeing is a very good possibility, although it may be a little overdone there.

        We’ve seen trough extensions between offshore storms and an upper low to the northwest. These are regions of lift that can generate snow, sometimes more than you would think. I don’t think this will be one of those cases where it gets out of control, but it’s worth watching for at least a little swath of light snow.

        I opted to keep my wording the same on the forecast, with a snow chance, favoring the southeast part of the region. Will re-evaluate this tonight.

        1. Oh, you certainly have that covered. Very astute.
          Now let’s see what becomes of it. Curious as to why
          other models have not picked up on it.

          1. This is a tricky one. The NAM is right outside of it’s “better” performance region on this, but even that being the case, I’ve seen it pick this up beyond 48 hours before, which is why I won’t automatically discount it.

            If it’s there 3 runs from now, then I’ll start to think it’s a valid probability. If it starts to fade run-to-run, it’s just an “oopsie doopsie overdo”.

            1. Sounds fair. Something else for me to watch. At least it is something, even if the big storm isn’t to be.

              Many thanks

  38. Ok a couple things…

    I saw the NBC 10 story.

    While it does NOT say we’re getting hit by a powerful storm, it mentions a powerful storm could bring snow to parts of the region. Technically, this is true. The storm will be powerful (and pass 250 to 350 miles southeast of 40N/70W aka “the benchmark”). And yes, an inverted trough feature extending behind this toward an upper low over the Northeast may give our region “some snow” – probably very little, but some.

    What was done here was “sexy” headline writing. What they say is technically not wrong, but it’s worded to sound dramatic, so the reader will click the story.

    I can pretty much guarantee that “the boss” said to the weather team (in some form similar to this): “we need x number of graphics to show this, this and this”. The weather team provides the graphics because the boss told them to. This is given to the person writing the story (you can see her name on the post), and she does what her boss asks of her. Writes a story about a possible storm, to be posted on social media to make people click the story and/or watch the news in a while to find out more…

    The 2 things that are being done incorrectly here…

    1) The headline. It’s misleading And yes it’s misleading on purpose. That’s not ok in my book.

    2) The lack of direct involvement from a meteorologist at the station, other than providing the graphics asked for.

    2. Exactly and you can do more than pretty much guarantee. I really like your comment.

      My one general caution is to be really careful about faulting a station and not corporate. When a station is faulted, it trickles down to anchors and Mets and all at the station who have no control over its workings.

      I absolutely know you did not do that TK nor did anyone. It was just a thought that popped into my head.

    1. I imagine that wind gusts are a very local phenomenon. I live 3.85 miles from the Fitchburg airport. I haven’t had anything like 68 mph here. I checked two nearby weather stations. They report peak gusts of 13 and 14.

      I’m not doubting it, just glad that I live in a “Cone of Tranquility” 🙂

  41. The high wind warning for much of SNE has been extended until this time tomorrow (5PM Tuesday).

    The behavior of the Atlantic Canada low was and remains my primary reason for leaning toward an offshore track for the Thursday system starting a few days ago.

  42. I was hoping that Atlantic Canada low would keep moving but alas it will act like a suppressor. I feel like that was our last high chance for a big snowstorm on the South Coast this year – I know winter has a long way to go but the cold was in place and I feel like future storms will result if some mixing along the coast as we get into March. Again it will still snow but I felt like this could have been a real big one for the coast that would have been all snow

  43. Is there still time for Thursdays system to track further NW or has the fat lady sung her anthem?

      1. No, but I’m not far north and west either. I’m always stuck in no man’s land. Get mix and rain in borderline events but when it’s a SE special I get zilch.

    1. It’s entirely possible the NAM is right and will be the only model to pick it up, but I won’t be confident if that until we’re at 48 hours out and it still shows this, even if other guidance does not.

  47. Power outage here for about 3 hours, starting around 8:30.

    My guess for restoration was 11:37 p.m. It came back at 11:34 p.m. Close enough! forecast verified! 😉

  48. Quick poll – I need to drive home to West Concord from North Chelmsford. Would you wise fellow woodshill northern metro-west folks take the highways or back roads (probably rt 27 through westford /acton to the concord rotary) on an icy windy night? Thx for any recommendations!

    1. My concern with the wind is the amount of trees along the route … The highways are at least generally more open in terms of not nearly as many trees over the roadway.

      1. I was worrying about them. When I was in college in Southern California in the mid to late ‘90’s two fellow students got killed on campus at a stop sign by a giant eucalyptus tree that unexpectedly came down bc of the El Niño prolonged rains.

        Since then I’ve always worried up with wind and ice – more than down.

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