Tuesday February 18 2025 Forecast (7:27AM)

122 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

A large storm system in Atlantic Canada continues to impact our region with gusty wind and cold weather today before losing its grip by Wednesday. The high wind warning was extended by the NWS for Worcester and northwestern Middlesex Counties in MA where wind gusts in excess of 55 MPH are still possible today, and a wind advisory continues elsewhere where wind gusts at or above 45 MPH are still possible today. Late Wednesday and Thursday a storm will emerge off the US Southeast Coast and track offshore, passing far enough southeast of New England to spare a direct hit snowstorm, and bring a side-swipe snow event to southeastern MA, mainly Cape Cod, but a trough between that system and an upper low to our northwest will bring the potential for some light snowfall to the remainder of the region for a while late Thursday. This should be a very minor event for these areas. High pressure building into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will extend eastward enough for dry weather late this week, with some temperature moderation expected – a little break from the coldest weather we’ve been enduring.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 22-29. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts mostly 30-40 MPH, but a few gusts to 45+ are possible with 55+ a potential in higher elevations of north central and central MA as well as adjacent southern NH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Afternoon snow likely Cape Cod and Islands, possible elsewhere in southeastern MA and RI. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow most likely Cape Cod and Islands with up to a few inches potentially, and a chance of some light snow elsewhere. Overnight clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Weak systems can bring a few mix/snow showers between February 23 and 25 and a larger storm system may threaten around February 26. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

March 1-3 is a watch period for a potential storm system impact. Temperatures near to below normal.

122 thoughts on “Tuesday February 18 2025 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Thank you for covering this past storm in detail! Actually with the wind, the event still isn’t over.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    For Thursday, Nam backing off a bit, while euro and rdps bring some light snow nw to boston. nam now keeps snow se of boston.
    others nothing.

    Tk has it all covered.

    curious to follow today’s runs.

    I am just about ready for Spring, but I know I have to wait some.

  3. Thanks TK. Looks like wind down a bit from yesterday and dropping more today. Looking forward to quiet weekend.

  4. Thanks TK! I sometimes measure a winter by how often I use my grill. I remember using it New Years Eve and had a feeling it would be a couple of weeks before I could grill again – well 7 weeks later I still haven’t used it and now it’s practically blown to the other side of my patio with this wind – it’s been a long winter. I am thinking of a quick trip to Florida to brighten my mood – although the higher sun angle helps a little

    1. I measure by the times I can sit out on the deck at night (with a solo or propane fire). I think New Year’s Eve may have been my last time also.

  5. Mount Washington as of 8 AM.

    Temperature: -17°F
    Wind Chill: -63°F
    Wind Speed: 86 mph
    Gust: 100 mph
    Direction: West

  6. Tk do you think western Plymouth county can get in on some accumulating snow Thursday night ( 2-3 inches say or meaningful accumulation held to cape & the islands. Thank you .

  9. Thanks, TK. As they say, “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity. It’s not the cold, it’s the wind.” I believe that. Without these strong winds, it would still be bitterly cold, but the wind goes right through you. Went shopping the other day, and I almost blew over! Granted, I’m a small person, but still. And there are still little spots of ice here and there. Glad you are feeling better.

    1. It sure does cut through you.

      I do love the sound of wind though. I think a freight train has been running back and forth through the woods behind my house for two days.

    1. I think it’s on to something, at the same time a little overdone.

      If this setup were southern stream dependent, it would miss big time. But that’s a big bowling ball type of energy in the northern stream that is destined to yank it back a little.

      My early guess would be a coating Boston to Hartford, 1 or 2 inches Hingham to Providence and 2-5 on cape, 2 at bridges and 5 at Nantucket.

      1. Let’s see how this shakes out.
        I would like to see some support from other models.

        Look at the HRRR. Yes it is still off shore, but it
        has come farther North and West. Sign of things?
        We’ll need to watch.

    1. I’ve looked at the runs and it’s hard to believe. Certainly possible but still hard to believe!

  18. The last storm way offshore that produced big time snow amounts was the March 2013 snowstorm. Eastern areas of SNE was the bullseye with that storm. I remember that storm was several hundred miles offshore. Different setup.
    If the NAM ends up leading the way and verifying that would be something.

  19. Ok, we have a few cumulus clouds here moving SE to NW signifying milder and slightly more humid returning today. We’re off to some national park my wife found. Clearwater beach was awesome yesterday, there was a NW wind seabreeze which, in the very dry air, wetbulbed the temp down to 61F. The sun is strong so as long as you put the wind to your back and faces into the sun, it was pretty good temp wise. The gulf temp per the life guard station is 68F.

  21. I couldn’t get my hopes up until I see other forecast guidance jump on board the 12z NAM solution.

  26. From Bernie Rayno on the 12z NAM run

    I have seen the NAM run. What it is showing has been my concern, that there is more precip on the backside of the surface storm due to the upper low. The question is the amount of dry air in this area. Can the atmosphere overcome it to produce the snow.

      1. Not for Nothing, but the winds at 850 mb,and 925 are on shore. Is ocean effect snow in play here as well?

    1. Afraid of that. We still have the UKMET and the EURO.
      GDPS will be just like the RDPS

      AND, I really don’t expect much change from the UKMET or the EURO, although the 0Z Euro ticked a little bit N&W.
      So, maybe just maybe we’ll see something from it. We shall
      see, IF not, then Not looking good

  33. 12z 12km NAM is still displaying the same overreaction to the upper low that I mentioned yesterday (same one Bernie is referencing).

    While there is some potential to that scenario, it probably realizes in a less extreme way – hence why I have greater coverage of light snow in my fcst.

  34. Went out for a walk at break during work today. Still recovering from bronchitis. That cold biting wind really takes the breath out of you!

    Also, thanks tk for the forecast… hoping for near to slightly above normal temps for the daytime hours of next week so the sun and temps work on these ice rinks.

      1. I ended up with 20″ from that off shore storm. And it came just a month after the 2/8 blizzard. 52″ combined from those two storms and 100″ on that winter for me. The interesting part about that winter was that it was relatively mild overall. With all the snow that we received, it melted in between storms and we never developed much of a consistent snowpack. In fact, all of that 32″ of blizzard snow was pretty much gone before that March storm happened.

        Proof that you dont need below average temps to have a snowy winter,

        1. I’m still not sure why there are so many that think you need below normal temps for above normal snow, and that “mild” automatically means snowless. Neither notion is correct. Quite often below normal temps correlate to dry weather which can equate to below normal snow in winter. We’ve seen it many times.

  39. Thanks TK.

    Not getting my hopes up on the 5″ the 12z NAM is showing for my area. I would expect 18z to dial back.

    Pattern definitely does look more active again 2/25-3/5. Not as much cold air around but enough that frozen precip will likely be involved in many areas with these threats.

  40. My ex’s father who lives in Lee Center, NY (northern Oneida about 5 miles north of Rome) just sent this picture of his driveway this morning….

    https://imgur.com/a/AqTvqH8

    Look at the height of the snowbanks in comparison to the basketball hoop in the turnaround.

    He received another 20″ of lake effect snow yesterday and overnight. This following the string of the several recent storms we have had this month and the historic 4-day lake effect snow event in January where he received 76″ of snow. I believe he is now pushing 200″ of snow on the season.

  41. This will be the run where the “should be taken out of service” 12km NAM over-corrects its error and the “I’m still ok at times” 3km NAM will kind of have a clue even though it’s a little over 48 hours out.

    Watch a loop. You’ll see the 3km depict the upper low’s circulation just in the snowfall pattern to our southwest before its influence arrives here.

    My forecast above remains unchanged at this time.

  42. Looks like the NAM gave itself an enema and cleaned out all of the glitches. The snow it was showing, SEE YA, save for a little bit on the Cape and Islands. 🙂

    1. Well, that’s the 12km. See my comment above. I still don’t know why they are running the 12km NAM. It’s a mystery.

    1. Their “high end” snow map did give me a chuckle though.
      4 inches for Boston. 9 inches for Plymouth. 15 inches for Nantucket.

  45. JP Dave, yesterday we talked about NBC 10’s story on the winter storm, and today it’s Channel 25, just 3 hours ago, putting out a social media tease with a very deceiving headline that I can bet the blog on that the weather team did NOT come up with…

    Might as well be the exact same thing. So they are still hyping a basically non-event (no, not completely “non”, there will be some snow southeast and maybe some flakes elsewhere but not a major storm hit). But again, media bosses doing what media bosses do………………. *** SIGH ***

    1. Unfortunately, nobody is held liable for injury (financial or otherwise) that comes from this. It’s only going to get worse. And much worse.

    3. It has been bad for over a decade. But this is unreal. I cannot imagine how the Mets feel. It will all come down on them.

    1. As you know, I’m not a big RDPS fan, but this particular run of this particular model displays my current thoughts.

      Basically this upcoming event lays down a mini snow cover in the only part of New England that doesn’t have one. 😉

    1. This particular system may not be such a fantasy, actually.

      I’ve been watching this period already for a bit … long way out there though.

      1. 12zz Euro has two powerful storms as well….around 2/28 and on 3/5. Further NW with the tracks though so as depicted would be warmer systems. Long ways out…

  48. Petey B.’s wristwatch came loose on air during the 5:50 p.m. weathercast and he fixed it without missing a beat. Smooth move. 🙂 I love catching little things like that haha.

    1. More times than not they tell you dont even need to show up. Then again, there’s my mother who got selected and put on a murder trial. Hoping it is the former for you!

    2. I used to get out of it by saying my dad or my son is in law enforcement. That doesn’t work any more. Last one I postponed for the allowed year which put me over 70 so I am no longer eligible

      Mac on the other hand loved being called

  50. Only two times I have had to show up but never got on a jury. The two times I had to report it was a Thursday. I am hoping that not be the case next Thursday.

    1. I’ve been called 7 times, the first in 1989, the most recent about 5 years or so ago.

      1: Cambridge. Postponed it 1 year, went, got on a 3-day trial. Amazing experience.

      2: Lowell: Cancelled.

      3: Ayer: Went. Only 1 trial being sat, but when the parties saw the jury pool they got nervous and settled pre-trail. Sent home by 10:30 a.m.

      4: Lowell: Cancelled.

      5: Cambridge: Went in. Not needed. Sent home late morning.

      6: Lowell: Cancelled.

      7: Woburn: Cancelled.

        1. I can talk about it in general terms now after all these years. Not guilty. Guilt was NOT proven beyond reasonable doubt. And it wasn’t the most serious charge in the world – just something about a little illegal substance.

          I was the youngest juror, by quite a bit – at age 22.

    2. I’ve served on a jury one time. It was a criminal case in Cambridge in 1997. If I forget the year, all I have to do is check when “The Perfect Storm” was published.

      Another juror had the book with her and recommended it to me. I got it from the library soon after the trial!

      I still remember many details of the trial. The judge talked with us after the sentencing, which we didn’t observe. I felt even better about our finding after she gave us some additional information that was not allowed during the trial itself. It was an emotional experience.

  51. Texas temperature range a couple hours ago…

    Borger in the northern Panhandle: 5F.
    McAllen in far South TX: 87F.

  52. I was on a jury once for a drunk driving charge. I was named the alternate juror and when we had our lunch break we went to a restaurant near the courthouse. One of the other jurors tripped and broke her ankle so I was promoted to a “real” juror. This was in Brockton.

    I was chosen for another jury in Plymouth but was quickly dismissed by the attorneys since it was a case against Eastern Bank for a customer falling on their property.

    1. Was on a drunk driving charge one as well. Was last one selected and then made foreperson. Was quite the experience.

  53. 48 hours out now, my first call on snowfall for the late Thursday event…

    Dusting to 1 inch Cape Ann, Metro Boston, down I-95 to RI.
    1 to 3 inches Cape Cod / Islands.

    Wildcards…
    -A very small difference in the track of the offshore low translates to a significantly different result (a bit more SE = almost nothing / a bit more NW = double those amounts).
    -The Cape Ann, Metro Boston, I-95 belt snow is dependent on the interaction with the upper low. This could result in nothing. This could also result in something greater than my initial outlook. We’ve seen it before. We’re only talking about several hundreths of an inch difference in melted precipitation.
    -Ocean effect snow band potential that could add accumulation from coastal Plymouth County to Cape Cod.

      1. Not a “classic” but it’s similar. There’s what I call a “bridge trough” between the offshore storm and an upper low. This type of feature is actually quite common. It’s a small zone where some upward motion can help generate precipitation – snow in this case. Guidance can struggle with these features. I’ve seen it go either way – guidance says hardly anything and then several inches later you’re wondering what happened, or guidance spits out a few inches of snow and you get flurries. Just have to keep monitoring the higher res short range guidance as we get closer.

    1. Ah, so because “the models” say it, it’s the final word. Got it! I’ll erase the flurries from my forecast. 😉

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