Wednesday February 19 2025 Forecast (7:38AM)

109 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

The big wind bag in eastern Canada is finally losing grip on our region, and while you’ll still feel a biting breeze if you are stepping outside this morning, you’ll definitely notice as the day goes on there is less wind, and that, combined with mid February sun will have a different feel than the last 2 days, despite the temperature still failing to reach seasonal normal for a high. The sun will become filtered at times by high clouds, in advance of a storm system that we’ve talked about at length this week. The outlook remains the same on it. The low becomes quite strong as it emerges into the Atlantic waters off the Southeast / Mid Atlantic Coast, but tracks too far southeast of New England for a direct hit. I’ve talked about this as a sideswipe, and that’s what it will be, giving some accumulating snow to Cape Cod and the Islands, particularly Nantucket. I’m still looking for some very light snow or flurries for a portion of RI and eastern MA from an interaction with upper level low pressure to the northwest, but this looks like the “lesser version” rather than the “overproducing” one. Additionally, a northerly air flow can produce a few ocean-effect snow shower bands, also most likely to impact Cape Cod. One can get far enough west to clip Cape Ann MA and maybe coastal Plymouth County for a brief time. The timing on all of this is Thursday evening and night, and it’s outta here by early Friday, when fair weather returns. Good news too to add for those of you weary of the cold and the active weather pattern. A break comes with fair weather extending through the coming weekend, along with a modest temperature moderation…

TODAY: Ocean-effect clouds across Outer Cape Cod this morning / midday. Sunshine otherwise, becoming filtered at times by increasing high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, gradually diminishing.

TONIGHT: Considerable high clouds. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow Cape Cod / Islands, accumulating 1 to 3 inches, highest on Nantucket. Periodic light snow or flurries RI and eastern MA mainly I-95 belt eastward with under 1 inch. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Down the home stretch of February we go next week. Looking for a couple minor systems to bring a few rain/mix/snow showers with moderated temperatures early in the week, a midweek shot of colder air returning, then a potential winter storm threat later in the week. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Below normal temperatures prevail along with an active pattern again, bringing threats of unsettled weather on the March 1-2 weekend and maybe again by the end of the period.

109 thoughts on “Wednesday February 19 2025 Forecast (7:38AM)”

    1. Just flurries around here, but I left room for some minor accumulation – mainly dustings / coatings.

      I’m not liking the way NWS is using that map. They write ranges based on the expected to high end amounts, but have a scale on the side that is the standard one, which immediately throws the map out of whack. They need to decide what they’re going to do there and stick with it. Might write to them and ask, but they’ve been less than responsive to me in the past.

      1. With how funding is and the threat for the future, not sure they’ll be any more responsive.

    1. I think there’s still a chance. Nature has a funny way of giving us a whimper of a visual for people to take a picture of so they can send said picture on twitter and say “so this is the blizzard we were promised?”

    1. I wouldn’t say wasted. It gave a very fun event to watch and each storm that materializes gives a learning chance. That said: I was telling people last week “let’s let the weekend storm pass through before we find out if that this storm will bless the fish or the snow lovers.”

    2. Agreed. I am not a snow guy and any missed storm, especially big ones later in the season, is a blessing. Looking forward to some melting in the week ahead.

      1. Although I love snow storms, I am beginning to look forward to Spring. That Higher Sun angel is affecting me in that way.
        So, if all the future storms are a miss or Rain, I don’t give
        a rat’s ass at this point of the season.

        Oh, sure, I’ll still piss and moan about a miss or rain, but deep inside, I really don’t care from this point on. Bring on Spring!!!

  8. This is the headline of an NBC10 Boston story that posted 10 minutes ago on Facebook. As a former reporter and editor, this infuriates me: “ A major winter storm is set to blast the Northeast on Thursday. But how much snow will Massachusetts get?”

    1. Could you say the headline is inaccurate, probably not, but it is intentionally misleading to panic people and get them to click on the link.

    2. Channel 10 has been totally DIGUSTING all Winter and most especially lately!!! SHAME on them!!!!!

    1. Looks like any snow from the HRRR is due to OE.

      The NAMS are leading the way to accumulating snow to Cape and Islands. Will it verify?????

    1. They’ll love it!!!
      If we’re going to get a miss like this one, then BRING ON SPRING!!! Screw it for any more snow this season!!!!

  15. Weather segment about 30 minutes ago on the radio; Another snowstorm makes it way up the east coast, and into New England on Thursday, and areas of Massachusetts could up to 7″ of snow.

    But I heard the other day we were getting 20″ now its only 7″!

    1. This kind of crap is getting out of hand!!
      Totally and completely irresponsible.

      And that up to 7 inches is a rip and read from the NAMs.
      AND ONLY for the Islands, NOT even the Cape.

      MOST misleading EVEN if they were to verify.

      How do we put a STOP to this nonsense?????????????????

      1. Write or email corporate.

        And make it known to the public you that corporate is dictating how to report news and weather. We know it is corporate forcing Mets to be first…. be loudest. The average person does not.

        Rather than say ch 10 which reflects directly on the Mets and often the anchors, to me it makes more sense to say ch 10 corporate ……

        The Mets are already faulted for not being able to predict the future.

    1. Keep on counting. The way I feel right now, this will continue into NEXT WINTER!!!!

      TK will now say, there is MORE than a month left to Winter!!
      TOO EARLY to say this. Maybe so, but that is how I am feeling.
      I am SICK and tired of either OTS or DINKY DUNKY events!

        1. It’s not so much throwing in the towel, it’s more if there isn’t the activity I want to see, I start thinking about going fishing and looking forward to Spring. The State Dept. of Fish and Game will start stocking trout very soon.

          https://ibb.co/tPKyP7G5

          1. That’s a little harsh, isn’t it?

            All I’ll say to that: Patience is a virtue I was born WITHOUT!

      1. 🙂 🙂

        If I were a betting man, and I am NOT anymore, I would take that bet. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        It will probably happen about April 15th. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Between March 1 and 20. I’ll narrow that further every few days until it doesn’t happen … Oops I mean until it does. 😉

  19. Thanks TK.

    Models still liking ~2/28 for our next larger storm threat. Still 9 days out though…plenty of time for things to disintegrate!

      1. It can’t disintegrate if it hasn’t integrated to begin with. 😛

        We’re only looking at simulations. 🙂

  20. Thanks TK – so after being leveled by Covid last week now it’s the norovirus turn. This is my worst winter ever – I had years without being sick from 19-23 and then covid popped up and now I am sick every few months. Ridiculous- I could not even lift a shovel right now

  21. Another picture from Grandpa today from Lee Center, NY. Snowbanks along his road are 6-8 feet high and the plows were only able to manage to clear a single lane down the center of the road after this latest 20″ snow event. No where left to push the snow until they get some heavy machinery in there with the giant snowblower to shave down the snowbanks and open the road back up to two lanes.

    https://imgur.com/a/GCeKZZZ

  22. We’re briefly back in a true warm sector in central FL today.

    It’s mid 70s with cloud cover, but the DP is back btwn 65 and 70F. It’s very breezy so it feels like summer air but it’s quite comfortable.

    Tomorrow’s high 61F and tomorrow night 40F

    Can tell it’s been a much more usual winter this year because 2 years ago, we spent this week in this area and we had a SE ridge all week !!!! It was 85F every day with a night time low of almost 70F It was tropical.

    Oh it’s been awesome this year and I’m appreciative but this winter is actually sending cold fronts through Florida. The locals on Monday were in coats and hats, lol. Should be fun to see them tomorrow.

  23. I’m mister anti snow, as some here may know…

    But I begrudgingly have to agree with tk that I think we see a 6 inch or more snow within the next three weeks based on some of the looks we’re getting. I’ve been getting lucky with all these grazes and OTS solutions. You don’t get lucky with all of them.

    The real question in my mind is – are we able to scratch and claw to the season average snowfall… (jpdave already shouting the word no before I hit post comment)

    1. The thing is people see a stretch without storms or a “milder” few days and just automatically think it’s uphill into summer from here. This can’t be further from the truth in February. History will prove me correct over and over. All we have to do is look back. Virtually every single time, we don’t get off that easily, with very few exceptions.

  24. Thank you TK! So happy to hear you are feeling better.

    JPD – I have declared myself as Ms Claus so you are now stuck with me. 🙂

  25. As much as I dislike the snow because of a fractured ankle 12 screws and a titanium plate with is still giving me range of motion issues only 50%, I’m sticking with my 39″ guess for PVD even though PVD Airport is in Warwick.

  26. I think we’ll have 4 days (Sunday through Wednesday) of regionwide high temps above freezing – probably above 35 (some 40+), which, combined with the sun angle, will go a long way into reducing / eliminating the ice pack that resulted from the snow-to-rain-to-deep-freeze event. That is good news for those who have to walk or roll about.

    1. I said a couple days ago we’d get some temps very slightly above normal! I’m gunna be right! lol

  27. Looks like the 18Z NAMS would have a Nantucket Special tomorrow and tomorrow Night. 🙂
    The rest of us, too bad!!! OR great news depending upon your perspective.

  28. I’m going to take a moment to give a plug to a weather enthusiast who does social media, but I’m going to plug him because he’s on the right path! With all the channels and pages out there based on sensationalism, hype, and basically making stuff up to get views and clicks, this 15 year old enthusiast has his heart set on becoming a meteorologist, and also has some really good broadcasting skills. There’s no front being put up here, if you’ll pardon the pun. He’s an enthusiast, using social media to get info out while providing links to the NWS as well.

    This is something I can applaud, because it is someone like this who gives me some hope for the future of the media side of weather. He’s in the Midwest, so his outlooks are for that region, but if you check out his channel you can get an example of his early-blooming broadcasting talent. I’m impressed. And “Look Ma, no hype!”

    https://www.youtube.com/@MooreWeather

  29. Retrac mentioned a poll on an over / under storm for Boston before end of season. I believe that is what retrac mean.

    So far I have retrac under and me over and TK over

    Anyone else?

  31. I hate to beat the proverbial dead horse, but despite my comment and many others on the NBC Boston FB page about the not-needed storm hype posts by whoever the boss is, they ignored all of those and POSTED ANOTHER ONE basically rewording the previous ones……………………

    Not only that, but the sub-headline talks about a transition to a wintry mix, clearly leftover (not edited out) from last weekend, but then talks about this upcoming non-event as an event. I simply do not get what’s going on here. The weather team has to be beside themselves by now.

    1. I was telling my wife about that transition and commented that whoever put that in there was a complete IDIOT!!!!

      This kind of bullshit HAS TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. The best way is to write corporate. I guarantee corporate doesn’t read their fb page. Maybe there is a way to find its BOD contact info

      1. I’ll be out doing errands for a while but I’ll check into that.

        For the sake of the weather team, this stuff has to be curtailed.

        1. I agree. I just feel it is important not to do on social media without a disclaimed on every comment that it is corporate. We alresdy know how people perceive high and low ranges

  34. So chances hopefully to add to the snow totals for the winter. I am curious how much longer for BOS the streak which is at 50 days today for not having a high 50 or higher according to Eric will continue

  35. Thanks TK. Will be interested to see if there’s any improvement for SNE on the drought monitor tomorrow; there should be IMO. The wetter pattern has been well forecast coming out of the dry weather from January.

    Coldest SNE winter, by some metrics at least, since the infamous 2014-2015. Once again, that’s been well-forecast (here at least), with frequent reminders that this is not anything like the past several, mostly mild to very mild winters.

    Nonetheless, and on the topic most here care most about, the relatively low snow totals are a little surprising to me at least. It’s obviously not a way below normal snow season even to this point, let alone what may still be to come. But a lot of nickel and diming, and more so a lot of favorable big picture patterns for snow that just haven’t come together to nearly the maximum extent they could have.

    Still, totally agree with TK on the next 2-4 weeks having a lot of winter potential in them, both snow and cold. The obvious difference this winter has been the lack of excessive Pacific air influence, and that’s not changing until 3/10 or so at least. And by then, we start to focus more on typical spring weather influences, where the Pacific is less of a factor. IMO, Boston will likely break 40” snow for the season and has a chance to go 50”+…

  37. 18z GFS has a low of -3 for Logan on March 3. In the slight chance it verifies, this would be the coldest March temperature in Boston since 1872, and 3rd coldest ever. Boston has only dropped to zero or colder in March 4 times previously, and not in the last 139 years:

    -8 3/6/1872
    -4 3/5/1872
    -1 3/1/1886
    0 3/2/1886

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