Thursday February 20 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

71 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

An ocean storm will pass well southeast of New England tonight. The precipitation shield from the storm itself will have the greatest impact on Nantucket and maybe Outer cape Cod where up to a few inches of snow will fall. Snow from ocean-effect can occur in a few bands from Cape Ann to the MA South Shore to the remainder of Cape Cod from this afternoon through tonight, and later this evening into overnight, a larger area of light snow or snow showers can occur anywhere from I-95 eastward as a result of a trough of low pressure between the offshore storm and upper level low pressure passing by to our northwest. The latter two triggers will be responsible for only coatings of snow where it occurs. So all in all, a side-swipe from from the storm far southeastern areas, and not much else. After this, Friday is a fair, chilly, and breezy day, and high pressure will dominate the weekend with fair weather and a slight temperature moderation. A weak low pressure disturbance can produce a few rain or snow showers in the region on Monday with relatively milder weather in comparison to the recent pattern.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – high clouds moving in from the southwest, thickest in southeastern areas, and lower clouds coming in from the northeast off the ocean with afternoon snow showers possible mainly Cape Ann, MA South Shore, Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with additional snow showers possible in aforementioned areas with patch accumulations of under 1 inch, and a period of steadier snow Cape Cod / Islands, accumulating 1 to 3 inches, with possibly over 3 inches on Nantucket. Lows 13-20. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-30. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain or snow shower late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

A weak disturbance can cause a rain or snow shower again on February 25. Colder air returns middle of next week. Watching two potential low pressure impacts for snow/mix chances February 27-28, and later March 1.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Below normal temperatures prevail along with an active pattern again, bringing threats of unsettled weather on March 2 and again late period.

71 thoughts on “Thursday February 20 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  1. Good morning and thanks tk. It’s funny seeing people complain on socials about the storm evaporating. As if they got no warning that it wasn’t gunna happen a long time ago now.

    Hope everyone has a good day today. I got a wicked muscle cramp in my calf muscle as my alarm went off this morning. Rude awakening. I must not be hydrated enough. That’s what causes charlie horses right? lol

    1. sorry about the cramp.
      I get those frequently, usually around 4 or 5 AM. Don”t know what causes them. been going on for so many years I can’t count.

      good luck

      1. Hope everyone is doing well, still read the blog every day but not participating because life is insane with a two year old. Guys, I had bad leg cramps and Charlie horses when I was pregnant. I used a magnesium cream on my legs and it helped a lot. I also took magnesium pills. Hope you all feel better, those hurt so much!

    2. My doctor has me taking magnesium daily before bed and I rarely get them now and it also has helps you fall asleep,

    3. I also get Charlie horses. My pcp years ago told me dehydration can be a cause. Stepping with the foot flat stops it as I suspect you know. Making yourself step down isn’t easy

      1. Yeah, it took five minutes for the pain to subside enough for me to even do that foot on the ground method. Haven’t had a charlie horse like that in a long time!

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Will I even see a snow flake here?
    All depends on if/where any OES bands set up.

    1. I think the O.E. will miss you but the bridge trough flurries will not (those are tonight).

  5. Most local media, NWS, and myself are in agreement on the snowfall distribution in this 3-source event (storm side-swipe), ocean-effect, upper trough. Channel 5 is a bit more aggressive with their 1-3 inch call for Plymouth County, and are the “media outlier” so to speak. Either way, a relatively minor event, unless you’re on Nantucket, in which case it can be termed “moderate”.

    A quiet stretch follows for a few days, and the modest moderation won’t be enough to rid the region of the ice block, but the combo if it and sunshine Friday and over the weekend will help start the process of chipping away at it.

    This will likely end up as the 2nd or 3rd coldest winter for Boston of the 21st century, certainly the coldest in quite a while.

        1. I was hoping for an inch , in any case I think there should be some snow in the air , thank you .

  12. This morning’s NAMS have BACKED OFF on the snow
    for the Islands and the Cape. Surprise, surprise, surprise.

  16. Thanks TK. Would love to melt some of these icebergs. Stubbed my toe on one this AM wedding my flip flops and it HURT!!

    Happy for a calmer pattern for a few days.

  17. I also save over btw. We will get with a Superstorm like storm in March this year. Doesn’t mean the same exact storm but a powerhouse one. I will be gone 3/7-3/22 so it’s guaranteed to hit while I am gone.

  18. I keep telling myself on these cold days that: 1) daylight savings is almost here and 2) we’re really close to spring and being able to explore the outdoors. In regard to the second point, though, I’m worried about park exploration being an option as more federal layoffs happen.

    Unrelated to that: I do like checking in with the local mets who are forging out on their own. I kind of like the Noyes’ “1 degree outside” venture, for example. My mind goes to “how can they make a living off of it”? I saw them promoting a service for “private forecast clients” with one of the bullet points promoting it as being “far more accurate than standard forecasts”… which to me was a funny way of wording it. I get it, but it also feels like saying “hey, these public forecasts we’re giving aren’t as accurate.” (In case you’re curious the other selling points were: “big labor cost savings” and “nearly a dozen planning hours saved per storm”)

    I’ve been enjoying the other tk’s (tim kelly) forecasts on youtube.

    1. I interpreted “standard forecasts” as meaning what comes out of radio and tv.
      We enjoy 1degreeoutside too.

    1. If I don’t respond that I got it, it means I didn’t see your comment. Pleases let me know if I miss you

  22. I find it somewhat frustrating that the Mid-Atlantic and the Deep South are able to get snow events from beginning to end but up here all we get are messy mixes. At least the southern states get their full snow potential.

      1. Actually it’s quite simple. First, you need to broaden your sample size. You’re comparing where you are to whatever area further south had all snow. It varies and has varied from place to place, storm to storm, just like up here. There have been several events in my location that have been all snow, and some mixes, and some that flipped to rain.

        The meteorology is basically that while the overall regime of the winter has been cold, more often than not dry, the stormy periods have come during sharp temperature contrasts, which as WxW and I have noted, often are the type of pattern that leads to messy storms. During those times, the Southeast has been warm.

        During the extreme side, when we were very cold but dry, the cold air was very invasive pretty far south and the northern sides of those systems were snow, but trust me, they had a mix/rain component to them too. 🙂 You’re not going to get that focused on by media, outside of severe weather, if there is snow involved, because there is a literal “obsession” with snow in media.

  24. Skies now partly cloudy. I doubt we see a flake let alone a coating. Definitely a fish storm only.

    1. As mentioned several times here already, the snow up this way does NOT come directly from the low offshore. That’s Outer Cape Cod / Islands, as noted in my discussion. The snow in the I-95 belt eastward, separate from the offshore storm, comes TONIGHT as a result of the upper level system. There is also some ocean effect banding, but very minor, thus far.

  25. CPC…

    6-10: Temps near to below. Precip near to above.
    8-14: Temps below. Precip above.
    Weeks 3-4: Temps below. Precip near to above.

    They’ve been very consistent. Also, I continue to agree.

    1. Based on that CPC we “should” be seeing more “all snow” events. I consider “messy mixes” with near to slightly above normal temps.

  27. Thank TK! As I recover from the flu I find encouragement from the long term summer predictions – temps above normal. I just can’t wait until July comes – enough of this winter!

    1. CPC has gone above normal pretty much every long lead forecast for years, so that’s not really a surprise. 50/50 at this point. 🙂

      Hope you feel better!

        1. There was a layer of lower clouds with a sharp edge. Shadowed, that would look pretty threatening. Betting that’s what you saw.

    1. Love JR. He is as down to earth as Pete. I enjoy one degree with the Noyes’. If Pete and JR end up being caught in the Nws revamp …if it happens…I’d really love to see them start a program of their own. They are great separate but together they were unbeatable

      2. I really hope not I am honestly not a fan of the weather channel or accuweather as I use to just a handful of years ago, there are good ones like Bernie and Cantore but there are alot about the company itself that I don’t like.

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