Wednesday February 26 2025 Forecast (7:17AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces until mid morning!

High pressure provides fair and mild late winter weather during today. Low moves quickly across the region Thursday with unsettled weather. This system may bring a burst of snow north / rain south initially before just some rain showers. Cold air returns at night and may cause some black ice formation as it clears out. Friday, a secondary cold front coming through can produce a rain or snow shower as it leads colder air back into the region. Another quick-moving system delivers some snow and rain Saturday before departing Sunday. More details on the weekend soon.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow/mix north of I-90, rain I-90 belt south, then scattered rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow to mix/rain, tapering to rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Fair weather early period. Unsettled potential mid to late period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

Two additional storm systems can impact the region with precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

77 thoughts on “Wednesday February 26 2025 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  1. Taken as is, the GFS has 10 discreet low pressure impacts in 16 days. That’s an active pattern if it’s correct about most of that.

    But as I always say, don’t get hung up on individual runs. Watch trends, ensembles.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made it to 54 here yesterday. snow is going fast. Only 37 overnight.
    I was out and about yesterday and it was WARM!!! no coat, just a sweat shirt.

    tuc tic tic Feb almost gone….

  10. Thanks, TK!

    31 when I left at 6:30. Major solar glare during the commute.

    East Taunton airport’s ASOS is broken, I think. It was reading 26 at 5 am AND at 7 am. It was 15 degrees warmer at the New Bedford airport just down the road.

    Did you stay for the whole game last night, TK? I shut the hockey game off pretty confident of the Bs win. I was a little shocked when I saw a Leafs win this morning!

    1. I always stay for the entire game.

      It was a disappointing finish. Too stuck in the same mode when they get the lead.

      Doesn’t help two of their best 3 defense are out injured.

    1. True, BUT the not reaching 50 degree streak was soundly ended yesterday by Boston (Logan) reaching 53.

  14. Both the 00z Euro and 00z GFS have a colder looking system 9 days out, hrs 216-222

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    So, on these charts, the top chart gives what has actually happened. That’s why they only give the indices mean, but not a verification number of 1 or 100% correct.

    Notice, 7 days out, I think the 7 day projection was verifying 95% of the time. But, add just 3 more days, and that has dropped to 82% and then that really drops going out to 14 days.

    If I remember statistics, a compound event depending on multiple indices, I think ?????? you multiple the probabilities to get the chances of all of them verifying. So, if a northeast snowfall is dependent on the PNA, AO, NAO and MJO to be accurately forecasted, and 9 days out, they have an 80% chance of verifying, it would be .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .64 x .64 = just above a 40% chance of an outcome where all 4 verify at the same time.

    So, we really need to see these longer term cold solution projections to stay consistent through AT LEAST 168 hrs and probably consistent to 96 -120 hrs before we even consider them as a possibility.

    1. You can multiply probabilities like that in a case such as flipping a coin. The probability of heads is 1/2. The probability of two heads is (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4, and so no.

      But, this only works when the events are independent. Say you have four balls in a bag, two white and two black. If you pick one, the probability of white is 1/2. If did get white and then you pick another without putting the first pick back in the bag, the probability of getting two whites isn’t 1/4. It’s 1/6. This is because once you pick a white the probability of the other one being white is 1/3, and (1/2) * (1/3) = 1/6.

      Are those indices independent? In other words, if one of them verifies, does that change the likelihood of any of the others?

      1. Good question.
        I believe the answer is yes, but I defer to TK on that as I am certainly not sure of that. Tom, your thoughts?

        1. I defer to SClarke, you and TK !

          Common core doesn’t really have probability in grade 6, so I haven’t used it in a while. Our curriculum is on data analysis (mean, median, mode, range, outlier) and organizing data (Stem and leaf, Box and Whisker, histograms and dot plots).

          What SClarke wrote above is in grade 7 and 8 common core years. I think what SClarke wrote above is correct and the question proposed is spot on !

    1. You’re going to get a variety of outcomes from deterministic guidance, which is basically useless after day 4, or so I’ve heard. 😉

  18. Thanks TK.

    Still 100% snow cover at the house this morning in Coventry but expect to lose a bunch of snow today in the south facing front yard.

    Driving into work it is now mostly bare ground in the Hartford area and CT River Valley.

    I got home late last night and the thermometer was reading 41F. Went down the driveway to get the mail and nearly slipped and fell on my ass on the black ice. Just beware the ground is still cold and the surface temp at night could be as much as 10 degrees colder than the air temp!

  20. Even though temperatures are in the upper 40s and above, I still encountered icy surfaces in shaded areas at this time of day. I had no idea ice could survive temps this high even in shade.

    Walking today I noticed still some snow patches in shade but overall bare ground.

    1. Can there be temps 50 while surface still near 32 or below? I did encounter an icy stretch of sidewalk even tough it seemed to be well shoveled.

  23. 40-47 interior areas NW of Boston and parts of South Coast, 48-56 elsewhere on this late winter day. Those are pretty much your high temps.

    Comical: The difference between the op GFS & ECMWF from 12z is …. funny ….

    Again, it’s about the pattern, not the deterministic runs.

  25. *** ATTENTION Alisonarod ***

    I sent you an email under the account woodshillweather@gmail.com (in case it ended up in your spam folder). I sent it to the email account you use for your posts on this blog. Just wanted to make sure you didn’t miss it!

  26. Thanks, TK.

    Al the talk about the NFL draft and who’s picking whom (! – how the heck can we know which player will be picked at, say, #37 overall??? given ALL the contingencies) where in the draft order is like predicting a snowstorm 380 hours out on the GFS model. It’s patently absurd. Might be fun to discuss, but with perhaps a few exceptions – the first few picks in the draft – it hardly ever pans out the way people (experts) think it will. In fact, it’s usually so wrong as to be comically inaccurate.

  27. I never mentioned about 5 weeks ago when it happened that for the first time in 15 years, all 50 states had measurable snow on the ground at the same time. 🙂

    1. Now that is truly amazing. We know one has to go UP for the snow in Hawaii. It is the Florida one that really gets the attention. 🙂 Thank you. We saw that mess down there.

      1. Florida is definitely the stand-out. 49 states happens much more frequently. The Gulf Coast states other than FL have latitudes far enough north that they usually at least briefly have some snow cover at some point, not always at the same time, but definitely more often than having FL included.

    1. Classic stratocumulus clouds. 🙂

      Love your new friend! I have many conversations with them during my visits up there – many times about how they are NOT getting a slice of my pizza. 😉

      1. If you look closely at the last photo, you can see that its name is E52. Perhaps an acquaintance of yours? 🙂

      1. May I assume (yes, I know what Felix says) that I am not the only one old enough know Jonathan Livingston

  31. Saturday system looking just a tad colder on recent trends…

    Also, I failed to mention in the discussion today that at the onset of tomorrow’s system, up to 1 inch of wet snow may fall in higher elevations N & W of Boston.

  32. I’m rather impressed by some of the cold signals I see for early and mid March.

    Maybe the 4th straight month of below normal temps.

  34. Didn’t learn my lesson last night and pulled into the driveway around 7 with the car temp reading 41, went to the mailbox and slipped on black ice which had already formed again at the end of the driveway. Amazing the difference between the 2m temp and ground temps the past couple nights. A good 10 degree difference.

  35. US Snowfall leaderboard this year…

    https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1894901805127213429?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    A ridiculous 382” on the season in Lowville NY in the Tug Hill plateau.

    Unfortunately we are now seeing a lot of roof collapses in that area now.

    Frightening video today of the roof of the Barneveld NY Fire Station collapsing under the weight of the heavy snow over the weekend…

    https://x.com/shanermurph/status/1894909512345096242?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    Fortunately no injuries.

  38. 00z GFS has a snowstorm with widespread 7-14″ on March 12.
    00z ECMWF has temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s on March 12.

    Willing to bet that neither verifies.

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