Tuesday February 25 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)

84 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

A late winter mild spell, rare this winter, will be ours for a few more days. Today and Thursday will be the mildest of the next 3, but also the most unsettled with frontal systems moving through with unsettled weather chances. Today’s is a late-day rain shower chance with an approaching weak low pressure area and attendant frontal system. Thursday’s chance is higher than today’s for the region overall – most coverage, and longer-lasting. There may be just enough cold air around so that Thursday’s “event” can start as snow/mix for areas away the South Coast before it’s a rain shower event from there. Between these, Wednesday’s a fair weather day but a few degrees less mild than the other two as a brief shot of modified Canadian air passes through. Friday’s delivery of Canadian air will be stronger, along with a cold front that may produce a rain or snow shower. As we welcome March on Saturday, we will do so with the arrival of another low pressure area via the Great Lakes with rain/mix/snow resulting.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible late-day. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible eastern areas very early. Lows 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain (best chance snow/mix north of I-90) early, then rain showers likely. Highs 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow to mix/rain. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Temperatures below normal. Unsettled weather then improving March 2. Fair weather interlude March 3-4. Unsettled weather returns March 5-6.,

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Unsettled weather and below normal temperatures will be dominant during this period. Details TBD.

84 thoughts on “Tuesday February 25 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Overnight low of 36 here.

    The snow is going for sure. Most noticeable yesterday afternoon.
    It really softened up and grass was showing where I had previously walked in the snow. Still 3-4 inches on the ground though.

    We’ll see how much of a hit it takes each day.I am thinking there is a reasonable chance it is gone by weeks end. We shall see.

    1. Melting continued overnight and should be significant next few days. Can’t wait for ice in driveway to go.

      1. Of course not, I am just anxious to SEE something there, but so far it’s been a CRAP FEST. That is all I am saying.

        AND, we are getting awfully close to the period that I am DONE WITH SNOW! Bring on Spring! Not there yet, but getting close. 🙂 So let’s get some snow in here sooner rather than later. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. I think about going fishing as the trout stocking starts in March. I have never caught a fish in the month of March.
            ONLY calendar month in which I have never caught a fish. 🙂
            Perhaps that will change this March? All depends upon the weather and the water conditions. 🙂

  5. Thanks TK.

    1,096 ❄️

    I am wondering if I should just add (+) 365 days to this and just get it over with. ❄️

    2. > “ I am wondering if I should just add (+) 365 days”

      So you want to skip next winter almost entirely? lol

  9. We were either side of freezing in the early morning hours. Up to 39 now. Would be nice if snow softened here today.

      2. About 25 miles SW. but we all know distance means very little. Quite often areas within Sutton north and west of my SE corner of the town can be frozen while we are thawed.

        If you have time in your lunch break, please stop by. I have a shovel right in my deck 😉

  10. Ugh – one of my pet peeves has been triggered by a local met that I like!

    Last Tuesday’s high temperature in Boston was 26F. Today’s will be 50F – “about double”!!!!

    Double 26F is 512F.

    By this reasoning, if the temperature was -20F and doubled, it would be -40F.

    If it was 0F and doubled …

    I’m OK now 🙂

      1. Makes sense.

        Areas to the south just patchy

        Up here, out of gladiated state today.

        In between, already like yours.

        I’m still at 6 inch cover.

        1. I can’t measure. The ice layer is too thick to get through. I’d say we average 3 and closer to 4 in many areas. I suspect the deck will have to melt from the bottom and hope I’m wrong. I’d love to start getting out there again.

  14. According to Cindy’s 10-day forecast, it gets colder again Sunday and Monday then gets to 50+ again thereafter. 🙁

      1. If there’s a pattern that doesn’t promote snow, it’s almost GUARANTEED to happen, especially around here. 🙁

  15. We are gone from 3/7-3/22 and let’s make sure it’s nice by the 23rd. I am sure it will puke snow while I am gone.

    We are heading to Turkey and Malta for two weeks. Hiking in Malta for a week so hopefully the forecast cooperates. Malta is a tough place to forecast so if anyone can forecast it, I would be happy to take it.

    1. I can see why, many days ago, when things were potentially projected to be tracking south of New England, that now, in actuality, they are tracking north of us.

      2. The 8-14 day CPC has above normal precipitation/below normal temperatures and the MJO (8,7,1) is now prime for lots of snow. I don’t get it.

        It’s like the “atmosphere” refuses to cooperate.

        2. MJO is just one piece of the puzzle. Although, it’s ironic, the MJO can be in a favorable phase but still not snow due to other teleconnections. But if all others look good and the MJO doesn’t? No snow

  18. SClarke: During weather forecasts breaks on my college radio show, I, rebel that I was and continue to be, used to give the temperature in Fahrenheit, Celsius and Kelvin. 🙂

    1. That’s great! You showed good judgement stopping there.

      I probably would have included Rankine and other arcane scales and gotten canned. 🙂

  19. Historical day in weather modeling as @ECMWF launches their A.I. global forecasting tool called AIFS.

    More accurate than conventional physics based models across many metrics.

    Beginning of a rapid evolution in weather forecasting with Europe and ECMWF leading the way.

    Also reading this skill level is by far better than the standard EURO/GFS etc…

  20. The AIFS system that has been running for the past year has been replaced by AIFS Single v 1.0.

    The operational version is even more skillful.

    5-day NH Z500 anomaly correlation at 0.97 is insane.

      1. I have been following this for a little while. There are different ways of getting there but for starters you can go to this link and check AIFS Single and AIFS Ensemble on the left. These are standalone charts. You can enlarge them and click on North America.

        https://charts.ecmwf.int/

        I’ll try to find something better.

        These models from what I can tell are all data driven and are more probabilistic than deterministic. I think that one of the AI models, GenCast, sifted through 40 years of ECMWF’s historical data in order to develop its forecasts. Another is called Pangu. The result is what Hadi referred to, AIFS.

        In various experiments, ECMWF’s AI approach has outperformed just the ECMWF by itself. But to be sure these AI models are data-hungry devils. They rely on gigantic mountains of historical data to determine probable forecasts.

      1. We’ll see. They’re on a bit of a losing streak and they’ve been anything but consistent this season. I am hoping for at least a good game. 🙂

  26. JpDave, I think the colder snowy outcomes on the long range GFS probably signify the GFS projecting one or more teleconnections to be more in our favor 10-14 days out.

    The problem is the 10-14 day outlook on the teleconnections obviously ends up being much less accurate than shorter term projections.

    Some reason for a little optimism, IF the teleconnections like NAO, AO or PNA can work in our favor, then if I’m understanding TK correctly, the MJO would work in tandem with them.

    1. Yes, need the right combo. MJO is only one piece.

      And it becomes harder to make it all line up now add we go, but when it does line up, it can really produce. This is why you just simply cannot rule anything out at this time of year, even if statistically, it becomes less and less likely.

        1. This isn’t actually true.

          But over the course of 1 year, low pressure systems produce rain more often.

          But during the winter, this is not generally the case, with a few exceptions (1979 February was one – frigid month, warmed up for virtually every storm system).

  27. I find it very interesting how high the EPS & GEFS mean snowfall numbers are for Boston. Higher than I’d have thought today…

  28. JP Dave. There’s your “favorite” east wind at Logan. Immediate 6-degree temperature fall.

      2. It read 53 on the outside gauge at the house I was at in boston this afternoon fwiw and they did not clear snow lol.

  30. I’m happy to report my front lawn is now soft as puppy poo. Still at least 3 inches. The mounds are still frozen and the deck is frozen solid with about 3” at the deepest part 🙁

  31. Well now I guess the new steak to follow is sub 60 temp. Anyone have a starting number – 60. Or looking attainable well into March

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