Monday March 3 2025 Forecast (7:07AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

High pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic Coast today and we remain in a cold northwesterly to westerly air flow, which then switches to a milder southerly air flow Tuesday as the high slides off the coast to our south. A warm front will send clouds our way Tuesday but most precipitation from it should pass across northern New England. Wednesday, we’ll be in a healthy southerly air flow ahead of a cold front, which will bring a ribbon of rainfall into our region during the afternoon and nighttime hours. As this slow-moving front pushes offshore Thursday, the shower threat will diminish but also become a snow shower threat by nighttime and into Friday as an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Surface low pressure will initiate too far north and east to have a major impact, with drier weather returning during Friday, along with a shot of colder air.

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds early, high clouds from the west later, otherwise plenty of sun. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Overcast afternoon with widespread rain showers arriving west to east. Highs 48-55, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 50-57 by midday, falling to the 40s thereafter. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain to snow showers. Icy areas untreated surfaces. Lows 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers until midday. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

A quick-moving low pressure area brings a chance of snow/mix March 8. Fair weather returns March 9. Additional unsettled weather possible thereafter including some snow/mix. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

Active pattern with variable temperatures – additional unsettled weather chances.

82 thoughts on “Monday March 3 2025 Forecast (7:07AM)”

  17. 12z GFS wants to deliver the first major snow storm of the season this coming Sunday.

    1. The GFS has been mightily struggling with what to do with that trough…

  22. If you want the definition of a medium range outlier, today’s 12z GFS is the perfect example.

  23. Euro doesn’t agree with the GFS, but then again nobody agrees with the GFS.

    1. The GFS has often been on its own planet forecasting I have no idea what, for quite a while now.

      A couple years ago now they made an upgrade to the model, and I use the word “upgrade” very loosely, that literally made it far worse than it was in its previous version. Everything that was intended to be fixed remained either unchanged or improved so little that it was of little practical use. And there are several biases that were introduced by the change. So the net change is to a poorer performing model.

      Am I saying the scenario it depicts is impossible? No. Technically it can be “right” on this, but over the long haul, its standalone simulations are most often not the correct solution, but far from it.

      1. Yeah… the whole “good for shit” joke (although some people say “go for snow” since it predicts so many blockbusters that never come to fruition) has legs based on everything you said.

        That said, I’ve prepared my mind body and spirit for 6+ inches of snow at least once this season. So it better happen. But only once.

        1. Climatology and history says we have a long way to go before we can safely count this region out of the chance of having a significant snowstorm. I know people will stand ready to argue this, but I could prove them wrong immediately by showing the FACTS, so it’s not worth their time to bother. 🙂

      2. I’m wondering if you think the problem was the GFS v16 change in 2021, or more recent? I tried to dig into GFS documentation of changes and it wasn’t so easy… but I’d like to offer reasons why such a perplexing downgrade in performance can initially occur despite best intentions of the model team. Typically, many changes are improvements to model representation of physics etc, e.g. improving or including effects or mechanisms in the model (just making up an example: you improve the representation of snow melt in the model by including a dependence on additional model variables). Sometimes changes are to resolution (eg vertical res was increased a while back). Sometimes changes are to numerics (eg switch from spectral to finite volume core). Sometimes just bug fixes. But typically these changes necessitate adjustment to other model parameters, or in other words even if you “fix” something the model was compensating previously for it being “broken” and you effectively need to route out and undo that compensation. Thus it takes further work and effort to adjust the model to better deal with the model changes so as to improve overall performance (and this is where I’d be critical of the upgraded GFS release, not enough testing and validation, seems to be a work in progress…)

        1. I agree with all you say. In my observation, it seems to have been broken a couple times, differently. I’m no expert on the specifics of the parameters and what they do to them, other than just reading the reports that are available, or hearing it from people in the know.

          Your thoughts are very interesting. Perhaps JMA (if he’s looking at the blog) can add some thoughts to this?

          It does appear to be a work in progress overall, but it just seems like lately there hasn’t been much to classify as “progress”. So I’m hoping that happens soon.

          Nobody expects perfection, but when problems stand out like a sore thumb, and other models don’t seem to suffer the same ones, you know there’s something that can be done, in theory. It’ll be interesting to see.

          Thank you for chiming in!

  24. Today has become very Halcyon and I love days like this.

    I have written a song based on cold, calm, and bright, by name of “Halcyon” which will be on the forthcoming album by “A Finesse”, the name of the band that is made up of myself and my son. 🙂

  25. Still looks like it could be a close call between a clean exit and a batch of accumulating snow before sunrise on Friday. Area to watch is far eastern MA, particularly Boston to Cape Cod.

      1. Yes, it’s that low that I’ve been eyeing. It’s going to develop, and I still think it develops too far north and east to do much, but a few hours earlier or a couple tens of miles further west and it’s a different game at the end of that system. These are things to look out for in the science of forecasting the weather.

    2. The rest of the 12z model suite had little to no accumulating snow in SNE through mid March.

  28. What is Boston up to for snow on the season? 28.1″? I am liking my snowfall guess of 32.1″ for the year right now. Assuming of course that the GFS is out to lunch…

  33. ORH = 33.3”
    BOS = 28.1”
    NYC = 12.1”

    TK – Are you still predicting 40-50” for Boston?

      1. Tk can you explain please how you are predicting Boston reaches 40-50 inches of snow total

        1. I’ve done that many times already. You do realize that you cannot be certain of sensible weather (day to day) beyond a handful of days, and you are also aware that climatology and history states that Boston is capable of seeing significant snow events into APRIL. There is nothing changed about this. Yet I need to re-explain it year to year. The pattern going forward over the next several weeks is one that offers opportunities, and scientific ignorance of this is foolish. I don’t base weather forecasts on “gut feeling”. I base it on science. For one thing, you need to learn the difference between those 2, and also you need to understand the difference between a “forecast” and a “guarantee”. I don’t think you fully grasp that, so please grasp it this time.

          Boston needs 11.9 inches to reach 40.0. I believe, based on the pattern through March, this is entirely possible, hence the continued prediction that they can reach my forecast range of 40 to 50 inches (normal for the season is 49).

          It’s a prediction, not a guarantee. Do you need further explanation?

  35. Norman, OK.

    Google that and add DOGE to your search and see if anything comes up.

    I’m seeing it pop up on Facebook.

    Something about not renewing leases. I must admit I feel like I need more info or a better explanation to understand what this might entail. It’s other stuff too.

    We might have to start forecasting the good ole fashion way, by sfc wind behavior and the look of the sky, behavior of cloud cover, etc.

    1. I can’t find what I consider a reliable source either. Takes a while to catch up sometimes. A lot of moving parts.

      Meanwhile I’m celebrating Vermont tonight…a state near and dear to my heart

      1. Well, in reading some posts that Eric fisher reposted, all the us models, could be bye bye ?

        I’m still not sure. A diminished WPC or SPC ???? I’m potentially horrified.

        2. I couldn’t find anything from Eric on blusky. The replies to him on twitter are from the same people who know nothing about weather but think they can do better

          We know this was in project 2025. Amazingly the majority were appalled by it and said it would never happen

            1. A certain someone said “there are plenty of other sources for weather info”. Hahahaha

  36. So a question. If everything is done away with and weather is privatized and local Mets want to do what matt Noyes has done…..or even Matt is this happens….what will they have to help them create a reliable forecast. I know models are part of the whole and not the key….but are we thrown back to decades ago?

    I hope that makes some sort of sense

      1. I’m trying hard not to imagine what that would mean or where we are headed as a country. A people.

    2. Two primary things would happen:
      There would be a reliance on foreign data and modeling systems which would be absolutely horridly hobbled to degrees I can’t even begin to describe without the shared data coming from us.

      There would be a shift to privatization, which is what the administration touts as in the best interest of the taxpayers to save money but this is just not good for a publicly consumed and lifesaving utility for many reasons, most of all because there’s not a great way to reap money for what you put in as a privatized org.

      1. Thank you , Dr S. I pray someone stops this but am afraid too many folks simply do not see where we are headed.

    1. I am no a fan of violence but we are watching our country burn and I am afraid it will get a whole lot worse.

    1. It wasn’t really a silly idea, since models don’t think, but it was a simulation I had my doubts about based on how it was handling the trough. 🙂

      And it actually still has the storm on the 00z run. It’s just slightly less phased.

  40. The disturbance that was supposed to bring just clouds tonight is actually bringing some very light snow to southern NH & northeastern MA.

  41. Interesting 0z Euro run. Second half was chilly and wintery with 2 or 3 snow chances.

    1. The pattern is on the edge through the month. It’s not going to take much for a late-season event.

      There’s a reason I maintain my long range thoughts that Boston will land in the 40-50 range for the season. They’re 11.9 inches from the bottom end of that range.

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