Tuesday March 4 2025 Forecast (7:05AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

A warm-up starts today, both surface and aloft, as high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast and a warm front approaches from the west. We’ll see varying amounts of clouds ahead of this front in the southwesterly air flow, and these clouds will thicken up tonight. Some precipitation will travel mainly north of our area tonight, but we may be clipped by the southern end of a light rain early early Wednesday as the front passes by the region. Wednesday’s weather will be warmer, but cloudy with a ribbon of widespread rain showers moving in ahead of a cold front by later in the day. This front will take its time crossing the region, until about midday Thursday, but the main rainfall will occur Wednesday night when widespread showers fall and even some embedded thunderstorms can join them. A transition back to colder weather begins later Thursday with the passage of a cold front, but the day itself will still be fairly mild. The wildcard for that day is whether or not we see any significant clearing to really help boost the temperature before the chill-down. As the colder air arrives, another low pressure area will initiate nearby, but probably just too far east and north to produce anything more than brief mix to snow near our eastern coast or just offshore. I’ll watch this for the early hours of Friday. One thing that is more certain is the strong and gusty winds that result from intensifying low pressure moving away from our region but expanding its wind field from late Thursday evening through Friday. Daytime weather on Friday will be mainly dry, with just a low chance of a passing snow flurry in cold air advection. Chilly and breezy weather continues Saturday, but not as windy as Friday. As we get into the weekend, I’ll be eyeing a disturbance approaching from the west and low pressure passing to the south. The interaction, or lack-thereof, between these will be the determining factor in the sensible weather for the coming weekend. Currently, for Saturday I expect that we’ll just see some clouds, but dry weather.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with brief light rain possible in southern NH and far northern MA. Overcast afternoon with widespread rain showers arriving west to east. Highs 48-55, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 51-58 by midday, falling to the 40s late-day. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A brief period of mix to snow possible near the eastern coast. Icy areas form on untreated surfaces. Lows 23-30. Wind N to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 30+ MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

Watching a storm passing to the south and a disturbance moving through from the west March 9 – current leaning is that they will not phase together and just a few snow showers are possible here with cold air dominating. Fair weather and continued below normal temperatures early next week. Unsettled weather with a milder trend toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

Active pattern with variable temperatures – additional unsettled weather chances.

88 thoughts on “Tuesday March 4 2025 Forecast (7:05AM)”

    2. Guidance has hinted at this for a while now. Going to be an active start to the season with this pattern.

      1. I did . I said no way will Logan ( Boston ) record 40-50 inches before winter is over . ( it’s an opinion based statement) and I think there are others here who would agree . It definitely indeed could happen and if it does I would not mind . Saying no way it will happen is just my opinion & that’s ok . An opinion on something is saying basically it may or may not happen .

  6. Good morning, thanks TK 🙂

    Channel 10 has started to back off from their 60 degree temp predictions for next week, following the shift from the models – I’m still hoping we get there at least one point next week. Selfishly I will hope for it to be a Friday which is when I work remote and can bring the laptop outside.

  9. I just read what was on the previous blog that I missed.
    My tongue is bleeding as I am biting it so hard. I have so much to say, but won’t say it here.

    And if this is a political statement, so be it.

    This country is being run by two absolute MADMEN!!! with purely evil intentions and to believe otherwise if pure folly.

    1. Indeed it is. But I think we can add a third madman. It’s not the VP

      Imo the discussion was weather related for fear of a looming disaster first and political second.

  10. This is the current post on Facebook from NBC10 Boston:

    ‘PHANTOM’ STORM? Most of the models show quiet weather into the weekend, but one particular model is showing a very large snowstorm hammering New England. Here’s what we know: https://on.nbcboston.com/kwqJfen

      1. I did and find the exchange most interesting and “appears”
        to be spot on. Thank you.

    2. I am very much surprised Pete would do that.
      Peter knows what a bag of shit the GFS is!!!!!
      Was he forced to do so?????

      1. I happened to catch him last evening. I couldn’t tell you exactly which segment it was.

        Anyhow, his 10 day had a sun symbol on it for the time in question. He said no snowstorms in sight and I can’t give you his exact words, but in jest, he did say we have 1 model that shows a snowstorm, but that it wasn’t believable.

        It made perfect sense in hearing it. It wasn’t misleading nor sensationalism.

        1. Well that makes me feel better. Many thanks

          I wonder if SOMEONE else wrote the piece on the website?
          Or perhaps it was Pete and didn’t realize how it would be taken by readers. At least on air it was handled well.

      2. The boss said to.

        What Pete said on air was adequate and I can nearly guarantee you all he wanted to say.

        1. On air, it was perfect to be sure!
          Pete is one of my favorites!!

          I HATE HATE HATE that on air METS are forced into this shit!!! How much shit does one have to eat before one says ENOUGH!!!!!

          btw, I LOVE how sometimes Pete whispers under his breath something he is NOT supposed to mention, like climate change. He gets it in there!!! LOVE IT!!!

          1. It is truly difficult to be doing something you love and are passionate about and then be told you must do something you know is wrong.

  14. Thanks TK !

    We head out Friday evening and TK has provided an excellent forecast for me. Anyone know how to tell how strong the winds are at transatlantic plane heights. 40k give or take.

    I bet 1 big storm hits while we are gone.

  16. Thanks, TK:

    Some of the Mardi Gras parades and celebrations were moved
    up earlier, some postponed and others outright canceled because of the impending severe weather in NOLA. There is a Tornado Warning right now for a cell moving into LA from Texas south of Shreveport.

  17. Regarding the weekend…

    We have a split flow pattern. There are two distinct jet streams transporting disturbances across North America.

    What we saw from several operational runs of the GFS was very likely mistimed energy projection, resulting in the simulation phasing the two streams over the Midwest. The result of the simulation from there is big Northeast winter storm.

    What is more likely is that we see that southern stream system coming along, but there are two systems in the northern stream. The first one goes by this area on March 8. The second one goes by on March 10. The southern stream energy goes by on March 9.

    This set of circumstances would not allow phasing of the two jet streams at a point over the USA that would deliver a winter storm to New England.

    If the southern stream feature was one day faster or one day slower than its current projection, it would be a totally different ballgame here.

    There is no justification in saying something cannot happen and speaking in absolute terms.

    The reason for many days I have been saying to keep an eye on that weekend was exactly because I expected there to be a southern stream system in a position that it could be captured potentially. Again, this is a good time to look up what the word potential means.

    Gut feeling is not used in place of science when it comes to forecasting. Science is used. This is why up until recently I advised to keep an eye on that time period for a potential. As we get closer to it, and I can start looking at the pieces of the puzzle at a closer range, with obviously higher confidence, then I can make a better call on what I think is going to happen. You see that current call in my discussion and forecast today.

    This is the way I have always done it, and this is the way I will always do it. It doesn’t mean every single forecast is going to be spot on. In fact, having a spot on forecast is nearly impossible.

    The aim of this blog in terms of forecasting is to deliver the best possible forecast that I can make, applying what I know based on experience and the scientific method.

  19. Dust storms have been occurring in New Mexico and maybe west Texas. Not that these are unusual events but they can be dramatic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngUAvRvhBeg

    Some news reports referred to it as a haboob which I have always believed are more like walls of dust. I’m not sure this can be characterized as a haboob but there are plenty of people who know more about this than I do.

  20. 12z Euro has a few winter weather chances around mid month, similar to the 0z run, with some blocking setting up to our north. Not an uncommon set up for this time of year.

    1. Have to wait and see on this one. Trent had a good year last year and when he needs to be, he can be a tough customer. This has not been a good year for him. Been somewhat injury prone as of late. What they are getting in return is more of a mystery.

      1. Thanks. I just haven’t been following the B’s so I had no idea when I read the details.

    1. Thank you, JPD. The article cannot be refuted. And there is Absolutely no doubt. He’s “gotten even” far too many times to count. And putting Jacobs in charge is of course a reward for his part in sharpie gate. P25 calls for privatization of weather services, putting them behind a paywall. The question is…how does M benefit.

      You cannot search noaa and Nws without seeing warning after warning that lives will be lost.

        1. I don’t think we have heard from WxWatcher in a bit. I sure hope his position is safe …so far.

          1. I was thinking the same….

            He was one of the newer ones added and I feared he
            may have been one to get axed. HOPE NOT!!!!!!

    1. We topped at 49 and are dropping a bit. Still, I managed to shovel a bit more deck.

  24. Quick review of latest into leads to no changes to today’s discussion. 🙂

    Lots of stuff to do today – see ya later!

    Happy “Marty’s Grass!” … I made a Fats Domino playlist earlier that I titled “Fats Tuesday”… haha IYKYK

        1. All fabulous. And great lineup! A live version of this tune closes my playlist. 🙂

          My Girl Josephine
          The Fat Man
          I Almost Lost My Mind
          Walking To New Orleans
          Goin’ To The River
          Shake Rattle And Roll
          Lady Madonna
          Mardi Gras In New Orleans
          I Want To Walk You Home
          Domino Twist
          Whisky Heaven
          When The Saints Go Marching In
          My Blue Heaven
          My Toot Toot
          Jambalaya / You Win Again

          1. THANK YOU. Just took a listen to all of them!!
            I knew most of them! Quite a trip down memory lane.

            re: My Toot Toot
            I didn’t know what a toot toot was.

            This is what I found

            in Cajun slang, “toot toot” can also refer to someone’s special partner or “main girl.”.

            I presume that is what he means. 🙂

    1. It’s really breezy here which is kind of ruining the mild feel. My neighbor’s barrel just blew down the street. And it’s full…

      …at least the trash stayed in it. 😉

  26. A quick update on drought.

    As of last week, “abnormally dry” conditions run from a Boston-to-Providence line eastward. Moderate to severe drought exists in the remainder of the WHW forecast area. That may have improved a little bit with some snow melt in the past several days, but the issue will continue. Right now, rain is not as helpful as it would be since the ground is still largely frozen and will just cause run-off. A snowfall would do a better job at helping in the medium term if we can manage a late season event or two. Otherwise, we are NOT in a good place heading toward the coming growing season. Take it from a senior agricultural met. No debate to be had on this one.

    1. Been watching the MA drought monitor and Quabbin levels. I’m a little uneasy about both.

        1. Quabbin is around 350 billion gallons which I think is in the acceptable range. The March number should come out soon. Last March it was over 400 billion

          Its capacity is 412 billion gallons, theoretically a 5-year.

  28. Now that the sun is up and it is light during the morning commute, I can see the Taunton River at the Taunton-Raynham and its banks are very exposed.

    1. I drive by the north side of Cambridge Res. off I-95 regularly, and it’s very low, even though frozen – it can’t hide how low it is.

        1. The actual Lincoln Reservoir was a very small body of water about 1 mile west of the north end of the Cambridge Reservoir, between Lexington Road & Lincoln Road. I believe it’s dry now and is actually part of a park.

          I’m not sure if the nickname was applied to any portion of the Cambridge, which stretches quite a long distance from Lexington to near Waltham. The stream that drains the southern side of the Cambridge Reservoir is a tributary to the Charles River, which picks it up down in the area of Brandeis.

          1. The larger body is what most in Belmont called the lincoln so we are talking about the same one. I remember years ago seeing it low enough to walk to the island in the middle.

            Cambridge has a reservoir in Belmont. We lived across the street. My guess is Belmont folks kept Lincoln just to keep them separated. A person told me years ago it is Cambridge and I looked into it

            My dad took us fishing there very often when we were little

  29. My wife is flying from South Carolina to Boston on Friday afternoon. Do you think wind will be a big issue? Will it reach damaging levels in metro west thurs night/friday? Thanks.

      1. I think so. I know she has direct flights both ways this trip. I looked at the weather there tomorrow morning and it seemed kind of crazy with hail, damaging winds, tornado potential etc. is this realistic or a worst case scenario?

        1. I’ll defer to the experts here.

          Is she staying in Charleston? I have so many memories. It is a lovely lovely city

            1. Lovely. My kids stay on isle of palms when they visit. A friend lives on John’s island

        2. Mostly just clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms this morning, not much in the way of severe weather. That potential is a little higher for that area around midday.

  30. Anyone know how to see tails winds speed flying across the Atlantic on Friday evening. I am assuming pretty aggressive which would be great.

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