Thursday July 3 2025 Forecast (8:13AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

Today will be a very warm to hot day with moderate to high humidity, and a trough and cold front moving through the region from west to east will trigger at least scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, ending from west to east in the early evening. The showers and storms should take the form of 1 or 2 general lines, but there should be scattered to at maximum broken coverage along them. Even though there are some limiting factors, there is enough moisture, instability, and heat present to allow at least a couple of thunderstorms to become severe, with a threat of larger hail and damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorm can produce downpours and dangerous lightning, so if you have outdoor plans, be weather-aware. Tonight, a dry Canadian air mass arrives, and high pressure builds into the region for Friday, Independence Day, with low humidity, lots of sun, a few clouds, and seasonably warm air. It may even feel a bit cool in the shade with a breeze blowing as dew point temps will be quite low for July. The nighttime will be perfect for celebrations / fireworks displays – you may even need a light jacket! High pressure will be overhead early Saturday then slide offshore through Sunday. This keeps our weather fair through the weekend, but with an increase in heat and humidity so that it will be quite noticeable by Sunday. Hot, humid weather will continue Monday as high pressure sits offshore and a cold front is slow to approach from the northwest, likely holding its influence to just some increase in clouds from upstream showers and thunderstorms late-day or at night. One caveat for Monday though: There will be a trough and low pressure offshore to our south and Monday which may play a part in helping to develop a distinct South Coast sea breeze boundary, which can sometimes be a trigger for convection, so although it’s “day 5”, keep in mind that a couple pop up showers or thunderstorms can result from this set-up.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud combo with a 1 or 2 passing showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon until about sunset. Highs 83-90, but a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point in 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH, can be stronger gusts around any showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point dropping to around 50 except to around 60 South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point around 50 except lowering into 50s South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81–88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 67-74. Dew point around 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight potential for isolated afternoon showers / t-storms south of I-90. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may shift more SE near South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

July 8 looks like a warm, humid, unsettled day with shower and thunderstorm chances as a cold front moves into and across the region. Middle of next week looks less humid and fair weather high pressure moving in. Late next week looks more humid with a few showers and thunderstorms possible as high pressure moves out and a weak trough arrives – details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Not much change from the uncertain / low confidence mid July outlook. Summarizing what I wrote yesterday: Recent guidance indicates a fairly typical summer look to the upper pattern with the jet stream to the north in Canada, south of that a weak ridge of high pressure near and off the US East Coast, a trough of low pressure Great Lakes / Midwest, and a ridge of high pressure out West. For us this pattern is mostly dry but with a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms, warm to borderline hot at times but no persistent extreme heat. There continue to be some hints of a stronger look to the jet stream to the north later in the period that could indicate a shift to a pattern more driven by that getting ready to take place.

95 thoughts on “Thursday July 3 2025 Forecast (8:13AM)”

  4. Thanks TK
    SPC Outlook for today. Level 2 out of 5 for severe weather for most of SNE. The exception eastern areas of SNE with a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1751544985

    Wind Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_WIND.png?1751545152

    Hail Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_HAIL.png?1751545269

  6. Yes. The earlier outlook the level 2 out of 5 risk was expanded to include more of New England. This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak but a few areas COULD get a nasty thunderstorm with strong wind gusts and hail along with briefly heavy rainfall and lightning.

    1. I am not sure why and not really based on much, but I get the sneaky feeling that this time, the dynamcs will be there and
      the system will over achieve. I don’t feel this way very often.
      Call me nuts, that’s fine. Just a feeling as I said. 🙂

  8. 3 limiting factors today for storms…

    -Limited shear
    -Limited instability
    -Lack of good trigger mechanisms

    In this situation, a storm that tends to survive these and fire up can be pretty powerful, but the coverage of such weather tends to very low.

  12. July 3rd is a bigger night on south shore communities compared to the 4th for fireworks and having 10 zillion people around. It’s fun. We’ll see if any community is dodging a storm around sunset.

  13. I suspect I’m about to fail Wordle. I am at guess six, have had letters 2&5 since third guess, only have nine unused letters and still absolutely no clue.

    3. I was embarrassingly lucky. My first guess gave me no correct letters at all. I got it in three.
      🙂

  15. Something funny with the RRFS-A output on Pivotal (at least). On many runs, including the last 2, hour 13 is blank. 🙂 Is that like skipping floor 13 in a building? 😛

  17. The short range high res models seem to be a little late in timing. If you look at recent runs, most of them do not have the activity where it is now. This tends to impact the rest of the forecast for both the existing activity and the development of later stuff.

  22. By the way, happy Aphelion Day, around 4pm.

    Farthest from the sun at a little more than 94.5 million miles away.

  23. Just got a hit on my new lightning detector for a strike
    within 24-40 miles from here.

  24. We are stuck in between the storms to the north and the one to the south. It feels cooler and it’s windy. This might mess with opportunities in this area for later storms.

  25. Thanks TK.

    Down in Pennsylvania today though Saturday for a softball showcase tournament. We are about 30 min NW of Philadelphia. Gorgeous summer day here with sunny skies and a nice breeze. Temps are in the mid to upper 80s but it’s ok with the breeze as long as you stay in the shade. Looks like we are going to avoid much of the action today down here although there is a low chance of a storm later this PM.

  28. Heading to Polar Park from 3:00 PM-roughly 9:00 PM from batting practice through postgame fireworks. Any chance we stay dry the whole time?

  29. Severe thunderstorm watch for all of Southern New England except the Cape and Islands until 10pm.

  30. I think it didn’t rain at Logan, but a bunch of rain cooled air got pushed all the way to Logan.

    Never a seabreeze, NW wind and their temp dropped from 90 to 83F and it makes sense because it’s in the 70s northwest of Logan.

  31. Some of the severe thunderstorm warnings in upstate NY have a considerable damage threat tagged to them with 70 mph winds and ping pong size hail.

  32. I find it interesting that the earth is currently farthest away from the sun, and yet, this is our hottest time of the year. At first glance it doesn’t seem logical at all.

    Thanks for that info above Tom!

    1. Sure thing !

      It’s the high sun angle + long daily exposure to solar radiation + small change in obliquity (3 million mile difference compared to 90+ million million distance overall isn’t much)

      Also helping is most of the land which heats more easily is in the northern hemisphere and summer is 4 days longer being we slow down in orbit further from the sun.

      The north pole also rotates to where it’s pointing to so that in about 20,000 years, the northern hemisphere will be closest to the sun at the June solstice and furthest from the sun at the winter solstice, like the southern hemisphere is now.

    2. Once you think about the entire world, it becomes clear that it doesn’t really matter at all. The distance difference between aphelion and perihelion end up nearly negligible when it comes to impact on earth’s climate. I mean, it’s the coldest time of year in the southern hemisphere, but not because we’re at aphelion.

  33. Based on the current satellite, I think the best place for storms later on is Mass Pike southward because the cumulus give away where the best instability is, unless there is still enough time left to reheat areas north of the pike.

  34. I’m reading lots of damage on some islands in lake Champlain. A photo of what looks like a tornado trying to form was said to be a scud from a person I believe is a local met. Picnic tables picked up and tossed feet away

  40. Radar lighting up parts of northern CT and in the Hudson River Valley of NY.

  41. A quick update on TK’s day (uh-oh, he’s talking in the 3rd person and using a nickname!)…

    Busy day. Visited Mom this morning to drop off clothes for whenever the discharge ends up being, since I’ll be in Boston tomorrow. She was still exhausted from a long day yesterday. Still needs lots of rest. Later on the case manager called my brother with 2 updates. #1: “She’s exhausted and weak and definitely not ready for discharge from the hospital”. (Um, no kidding, that’s what I’ve been saying!) #2: “She’s going to be far too weak to be discharged to home. We recommend rehab.” (Um, NO KIDDING, that’s what I have been saying since DAY 1!) Only took them a week to catch up to reality. Ugh…

    Did a little hike in the woods with my son with a plan to be back at the car by 1:00. We were just down the road grabbing a quick lunch and watching the clouds in the car when a downpour side swiped us at 1:15. Timing worked out well there!

    Rest of the day I’ve been prepping for tomorrow’s visit to Boston for July 4th, and eyeing the weather for a few fireworks displays that varying pyro friends are shooting, including the one I’m going to in Gloucester.

    The biggest problem looks like it’ll be CT, RI, southeastern MA. SPC’s issuance of a watch until 10:00PM is a good call.

    What I need to watch for the NH Seacoast (friend shooting a show at Rye) and Gloucester (the show I’ll be at) are those storms near the VT/NH border. The area translates eastward slowly. Does it build down into the Cape Ann and NH Seacoast region before or by showtimes (both 9:30) or is it later? Recommendation to both pyro crews is IF possible make a back-up plan to shoot the show(s) 15 to 30 min early, and in the mean time just keep monitoring the radar as we go along.

    We’ll see how it turns out! I’m still really tired from post-virus and ongoing autoimmune flare, but managing ok! Cheers!

    1. Thank you and looks as if calmer heads prevailed ……not always the outcome. Please take care of yourself.

  45. Radar lightning up over CT with thunderstorm development. It was a quick gust of wind lost power briefly and now just moderate rain lightning and thunder.

  46. Bulk is south of here but lighting is 1.2-8 miles away. Son and DIL in lincoln RI May get this one

  47. Real dark here in Taunton and to our west. We’re under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a cell making a beeline toward the Silver City.

  48. Seeing mamattus clouds and building towering cumulus to my west northwest. I think some storms may take off just north of the main cells and seeing hints on the radar of that.

  51. Still some bright flashes here. 0.03 rain. 72 / 69

    DIL said they are getting it as well as welcome rain in RI

      1. lol, but I am inside and I don’t like everyone outside with plenty of lightning but I give up trying to warn about lightning.

        1. I feel the same. I do not understand anyone being outside when they hear thunder.

          We are still getting occasional vivid lighting. I have no idea from where

  53. I saw one of my very favorite hallmark actors was at Fenway…..Andrew walker.

  56. Lightning, moving east, but still noticeable.

    I hope any boaters in western Cape Cod Bay were ready, that was a healthy gust of wind with these storms moving out into the bay.

    We have settled to a light:moderate rain after some heavy rain and vivid lightning.

  57. Plymouth gusted to 44 or 47, (I forget) and wareham to 51 mph.

    That early morning line of storms that did not cool south of the mass pike, in this unique instance, was a tell tale sign or picking the area that maintained instability the best. Doesn’t always work out this way.

    1. Dynamics were there. Didn’t matter what else happened. I figured if there was going to be severe storms, they would be rather isolated … it was a large cell, but it was basically the only one that produced severe weather.

  58. Boston news anchor, after showing a video of a guy shoveling hail off his deck in RI. “I find it absolutely crazy .. that we’d have hail .. in JULY!” … Um, July is the most likely month to see hail in New England.

  59. Down in Rockaway Beach where storms were not nearly as bad as Padanaram which lost power and several trees. Someone crushed in their car in Plainfield, NJ. Awful

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